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Global Stocks Retreat from Record Highs; Dollar Extends Gains

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By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM

 

Equity markets kicked off 2021 on a solid footing. Investors clearly shrugged off the global surge in coronavirus cases and the US Capitol riots. Instead, the focus remains on vaccine optimism and massive stimulus that may come with a Biden administration that is backed by the House and Senate.

 

Last week President-elect Joe Biden promised a hefty stimulus rollout worth trillions of Dollars, which we will learn more about on Thursday when details are announced. That had greater influence on markets than the surprising 140,000 job losses in December that we saw in Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

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Expect markets to continue ignoring the political turmoil in Washington as Democrats, with the support of some Republicans move toward impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump as soon as today.

 

What cannot be ignored is the rise in US government bond yields. Last week alone, US 10-year Treasury yields rose 20% making a high of 1.125%. This move in bond yields will likely prompt investors to re-think their strategies for 2021, especially if we see a bigger upside move in the weeks and months ahead.

 

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The equity rally seems to have paused at the start of the week. Futures of all three US major indices are pointing towards a pullback today after all reached new records on Friday. While it is extremely difficult to call for a correction in the current environment in which a synchronised combination of fiscal and monetary policies is taking place, investors need to start thinking about protecting their portfolios.

 

What we are experiencing in equity markets might not be a bubble similar to the one in late 1999, but there is no doubt that valuations are extremely overstretched. Negative real interest rates have encouraged this massive flood into almost all asset classes, particularly growth stocks, low rated corporate debt and even cryptocurrencies as of late.

 

The higher bond yields go from here the more difficult it becomes justifying a P/E multiple of 40 on the Nasdaq 100 or a 1.5% dividend yield on the S&P 500. If the Federal Reserve does not take steps to increase purchases of longer-term maturities, we could have 10-year yields well above 1.5% by year end. This means US inflation data is likely to become the most watched indicator over the coming months. According to US 10-year break-even rates, markets now expect inflation to be above 2% on average. While the Fed does not seem in a hurry to raise interest rates, shifting economic dynamics may force them to act sooner rather than later.

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Shorting the Dollar was the most recommended trade in currency markets heading into 2021. However, rising yields could now lead to a rethinking of this strategy. If the yield curve becomes steeper and differentials become much wider, expect to see a strong recovery in the Dollar despite the new billions in expected stimulus. According to the latest CFTC data, we are already seeing a trimming of long positions in major currencies against the Greenback.

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General News

Court Remands Akujobi, Ex Access over alleged Theft of N294.5m

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Chinonso Akujobi, former staff of Access Bank in Lagos, has been remanded in Ikoyi prison after she was arraigned on a five-count charge bordering on stealing to the tune of N294.5m.

Court Remands Akujobi, Ex Access over alleged Theft of N294.5m

Akujobi who is being prosecuted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was arraigned before Justice I.O. Ijelu of the State High Court sitting in Ikeja, Lagos.

EFCC alleged that Akujobi stole the money between January and December 2025 while under the employment of Access Bank Plc.

As stated in one the charges, the defendant stole the money through unauthorized payments from the general ledger of Access Bank to her account number 0036668871 with the name Chinonso A., Uchechi A. and Florence A., thereby committing an offence of stealing, contrary to Section 280 and punishable under Section 287 of the Criminal Law of Lagos State, 2015.

‎The defendant pleaded “not guilty“ to the charges when they were read to her.

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‎In view of this, S.M.Yabo, prosecution counsel, asked the court for a trial date and also prayed for the remand of the defendant in a Correctional centre.

Justice Ijelu, thereafter, adjourned the case till October 8, 2026, for the hearing of the bail application and the commencement of trial.

The Judge also ordered that the defendant be remanded in the Ikoyi correctional Centre.

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NSIB Faults Runway Identification, Reveals Cockpit Disagreement in Asaba Jet Incident

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The Nigerian Safety Investigation Bureau (NSIB) says the flight captain of the VMO Aero aircraft that landed on a roadway near Asaba Airport in Delta State told investigators that the observer pilot mistakenly identified the paved road as the runway before touchdown.

The bureau disclosed this in a preliminary report released on Thursday on the June 10 incident, which prompted the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) to ground the private jet.

The aircraft had seven people on board, including the pilot-in-command (PIC), second-in-command (SIC), an observer pilot, a cabin crew member and three passengers.

According to the report, the aircraft was cleared by Air Traffic Control (ATC) to approach Runway 11 at Asaba Airport after the crew requested a right orbit.

The crew initially discontinued the approach, executed a missed approach and repositioned for a second landing attempt.

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NSIB said the crew reported that the aircraft’s navigation systems indicated it was correctly established on the published RNAV Runway 11 approach.

“The PIC and SIC reported that the observer pilot identified the paved surface ahead as the runway,” the report stated.

However, the observer pilot gave investigators a different version of events.

According to NSIB, he said the aircraft remained inside cloud until late in the approach and that the Ground Proximity Warning System (GPWS) repeatedly issued “TERRAIN, TERRAIN, PULL UP” alerts.

He also said he observed a telecommunications mast directly ahead and instructed the flight captain to abandon the approach and climb immediately.

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The bureau further disclosed that a cabin crew member reported that one of the passengers became concerned after overhearing discussions among the pilots and asked whether one of them was undergoing training. The passenger was reportedly reassured that all three pilots on board were experienced captains.

NSIB said no abnormal events were reported in the cabin before touchdown.

The aircraft eventually landed at about 8:57 a.m. on an under-construction paved roadway near Asaba Airport instead of the designated runway.

The bureau said its investigation into the incident is ongoing, while the preliminary report highlights conflicting accounts among the cockpit crew over the circumstances that led to the erroneous landing.

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Court Adjourns Alleged Binance Tax Evasion Case over Settlement Talks

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Federal High Court in Abuja has adjourned the Federal Government’s alleged tax evasion case against Binance Holdings Ltd. cryptocurrency exchange, until September 24, 2026, to allow both parties more time to pursue an out-of-court settlement.

Court Adjourns Alleged Binance Tax Evasion Case over Settlement Talks

Justice Emeka Nwite fixed the new date on Thursday after Moses Ideho, counsel to the Federal Government,  informed the court that discussions aimed at resolving the dispute amicably were still ongoing.

Ideho, a deputy director of Legal and Prosecution at the Nigeria Revenue Service (formerly the Federal Inland Revenue Service), told the court that the matter, which had been scheduled for a report on settlement or continuation of trial, could not proceed.

According to him, one reason for the delay was the reported elevation of Justice Nwite to the Court of Appeal, while the second was the continued reconciliation efforts between the parties.

“The parties are still exploring settlement in the charge that led to this case,” Ideho told the court.

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Sunday Agaji, counsel to Binance,  did not oppose the application for adjournment, following which Justice Nwite postponed proceedings until September 24 for either a report on the settlement discussions or continuation of trial.

The case was previously adjourned on May 12 after both the Federal Government and Binance informed the court that negotiations were underway to settle the matter outside the courtroom.

Binance had first indicated its willingness to pursue an amicable resolution on March 24.

The cryptocurrency company was re-arraigned on July 12, 2024, on a four-count charge bordering on alleged tax evasion.

Ayodele Omotilewa, Nigerian representative,  pleaded not guilty on behalf of the company.

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The re-arraignment followed the removal of Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan and his colleague, Nadeem Anjarwalla, from the charge after the Federal Government amended the case to make Binance Holdings Ltd the sole defendant.

Justice Nwite had, on June 14, 2024, discharged and struck out the names of Gambaryan and Anjarwalla after the prosecution filed the amended charge.

Binance is also facing a separate criminal prosecution by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), which accuses the company of laundering about $35.4m.

In addition, the Nigeria Revenue Service is pursuing a separate civil suit against Binance before another judge of the Federal High Court, seeking approximately $79.5bn in alleged economic losses linked to the company’s operations in Nigeria.

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