E-Financial

Gold – The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Published

9 years ago

December 14, 2016

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Weak economies are more vulnerable to uncertainty, political extremes and populism, post-World-War Germany and Russia proved this beyond a doubt. The Gold price tracks economic uncertainty, and by that token, it also tracks the outer reaches of the populist pendulum.

The more uncertainty there is over the economy, the more extreme are the pendulum’s swings to the left or right, and the dollar-denominated Gold price reflects both these phenomena.

In 1973, the then-US president Nixon took the country off the Gold standard, and ever since, traders have seen the asset as a hedge against uncertainty (the good), as a clear signal of economic trouble (the bad) and as a benchmark for populism and political instability (the ugly).

An economy that can’t sustain jobs or its financial system risks heading towards mass unrest. Economic instability creates circumstances that are easily exploited by demagogues and populists, examples include men like Hitler or Stalin.

Political leaders on either side of the political spectrum can gain immensely strong, even authoritarian positions by fear mongering and seeming to offer the only way out of financial or political insecurity.

The realisation that populism can lead to extremism gave birth to the European Union, which is based on the concept that mutual economic interests lead to stronger economies and peaceful cooperation. In 2017, the EU will be 60 years old, but what are the dangers ahead? Much has been made of the recent rise of populism in the US, UK and EU, but we must be careful in choosing our comparisons because circumstances are very different to the first half of the 20th Century when war left these countries utterly devastated.

In addition, today’s mature economies are structured very differently to those in the first 50 years of the 20th Century when they were built mainly on monarchical systems and the value of physical assets.

Back to the recent present, the US narrowly avoided a serious depression after the sub-prime crisis by pumping billions of dollars into the financial system in 2007/8. In 2009, the Gold price hit a record high of $1000 per ounce, reflecting the trading market’s safe-haven buying instincts. That was just the beginning.

By September 2011, the Gold price had hit a record high of $1920 per ounce, and another record was set for the US government debt ceiling.

The US has spent the last two administrations stabilising the economy, but the Federal Reserve is still cautious about raising interest rates. The main sources of the central bank’s reservations are global and domestic growth, which are still slower than expected.

These economic circumstances favoured the more colourfully-populist candidate in the recent US elections, and Donald Trump won the election on a platform focused on popular dissatisfaction and fear over job losses, pinning his campaign on immigration control and protectionist economic policies.

Pre-election, the Gold price rose, but those who are pinning their hopes on US populism pushing the Gold price even higher may be disappointed. Since the US elections and the end of uncertainty around them, Gold has fallen to below $1190 per ounce, indicating that investors are partial to Trump’s economic policies – at least for the time being.

Meanwhile, the EU and UK are going through a period of relatively slow growth and still recovering from their own recessions. The ECB and Bank of England are spending heavily and pumping money into national assets like sovereign and corporate bonds while keeping interest rates low.

The low growth rates in the last eight years have led to higher unemployment and more social unrest in the UK which Brexit campaigners directed at the EU, blaming it for the immigrants seen as taking British jobs.

True to form, the Gold price spiked in July 2016 after the Brexit vote triggered risk-aversion and uncertainty amid the increasingly populist and nationalist campaigning from the Brexit camp.

The UK is not alone in this trend; in the Spring of 2017, France faces the choice of a far-right candidate or a national front candidate during presidential elections. Gold could heat up during this period, especially since UK Prime Minister Theresa May said she will trigger Article 50 in March 2017.

The expectations are rising that there will be a ‘hard’ Brexit, meaning that the UK would be left out of the Single Market and go back to the days of bilateral tax and visa treaties with individual EU states, restricting migration and trade.

In addition to the Brexit fears, Gold was driven higher in 2016 during the Federal Reserve’s monthly announcements and continuing hesitation over raising US interest rates. Investors have a love-hate relationship with Gold and the Federal Reserve, when they’re disappointed in the Fed, they love Gold and buy it passionately. The reverse is also true, when traders fall back in love with the Fed, Gold is spurned in favour of USD-denominated assets.

Have we reached the point of nationalism, economic devastation and populism that led to dictatorships in Europe and dragged the world into more war? By no means. The economic outlook is still far more stable than it was post-World War II, and provided the US economy keeps growing there is more chance of other mature economies following suit.

The Gold price can indicate what level populism reaches before it tips over into extremism, before slow growth tips into recession. What it’s telling us now is that economically-speaking, we’re not out of the woods yet.

The good scenario is Gold reaching pre-subprime crisis levels below $1000 per ounce. The bad scenario is a rise over $1300 per ounce, as seen during the Brexit shock. The ugly – at least in terms of uncertainty and instability – is a return to $1920 and over.

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E-Financial

NGX REGCO Fines 5 Firms N291m for Market Manipulation

Published

58 minutes ago

March 31, 2026

Ebere Melum-Nwogbo

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NGX Regulation Limited (NGX REGCO), a wholly owned subsidiary of Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) has sanctioned five trading license holders for alleged market manipulation and other prohibited trading activities, imposing fines totaling N291million.

NGX REGCO Fines 5 Firms N291m for Market Manipulation

In a notification dated March 27, 2026, and addressed to Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the regulator said the decision followed deliberations of its Regulatory and New Business Committee (RNBC) held on March 16 and 24, 2026.

The sanctioned firms are CSL Stockbrokers Limited, Cowry Securities Limited, Meristem Stockbrokers Limited, SMADAC Securities Limited, and Associated Asset Managers Limited.

NGX RegCo stated that the cases were escalated by its Investigation Panel after hearings on February 25 and March 17, 2026, which uncovered repeated infractions such as wash trades, self-matching transactions, artificial price formation, and misleading market activity.

CSL Stockbrokers was fined N91.29 million, while Cowry Securities, Meristem Stockbrokers, SMADAC Securities, and Associated Asset Managers were each penalized N50 million in accordance with the Investment and Securities Act 2025.

The Exchange also directed the affected firms to undertake mandatory compliance and market conduct training to reinforce regulatory adherence and enhance market discipline.

It noted that the sanctions are proportionate to the violations and are intended to deter future misconduct, reaffirming its commitment to safeguarding market integrity, protecting investors, and strengthening confidence in Nigeria’s capital market.

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E-Financial

FG Launches Cross-Border Digital Payments Report

Published

59 minutes ago

March 31, 2026

Ebere Melum-Nwogbo

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Federal government has launched the “Cross-Border Digital Payments and Identity in Nigeria under the AfCFTA” report, urging stakeholders to unlock trade opportunities for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to access the $3.5 trillion African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) market.

FG Launches Cross-Border Digital Payments Report

The high-level report, hosted by the Office of the Vice President in collaboration with ODI Global under the Supporting Investment and Trade in Africa (SITA) programme, was unveiled by Ibrahim Hassan-Hadejia, deputy chief of staff to the President, in Abuja.

Hassan-Hadejia described the research as both timely and strategic, noting the strong coordination by the Office of the Vice President and the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment.

He revealed that the cross-border payments report followed earlier milestones, including the development and launch of Nigeria’s Digital Trade Strategy and a capacity-building programme for subnational leaders.

Furthermore, he said Nigeria is increasingly assuming a leading role in shaping the digital trade agenda across the African continent, necessitating that the country remains at the forefront of AfCFTA implementation.

He noted that deepening engagement with AfCFTA and enabling businesses, particularly SMEs, to conduct seamless cross-border transactions will be critical to unlocking trade, fostering growth, and creating jobs.

He further stated that efficient cross-border payments, supported by trusted digital identity systems as recommended in the report, will be key to realising President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope vision for Nigerian MSMEs.

The Deputy Chief of Staff also observed that while the report identifies the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System as a critical platform for cross-border digital payments, Nigerian fintech firms such as PalmPay and Moniepoint, which have some of the largest and most active user bases, will play a pivotal role in driving adoption.

He assured that the Federal Government remains committed to strengthening critical infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and partnerships to ensure Nigeria is not only ready for digital trade but continues to lead.

“I appreciate the efforts of all stakeholders and urge us to move AfCFTA beyond a continental agreement to a $3.5 trillion trade juggernaut that will reinvigorate our industries, unlock intra-African trade, and domesticate African prosperity,” he added.

He said “intra-African trade will be driven not only by large corporations but by small businesses empowered through digital trade and e-commerce, while noting that issues of trust, identity, and logistics, as highlighted in the report, must be addressed”.

Commenting on the report, Temitola Adekunle-Johnson, special Adviser to the President on Job Creation and MSMEs, said the report – developed under the purview of the Office of the Vice President-would significantly strengthen the MSME ecosystem.

He expressed optimism that the report’s findings and recommendations would enable Nigerian SMEs to achieve seamless access to continental markets.

Salihu Dasuki, special Assistant to the President on ICT Policy, Office of the Vice President, disclosed that the office, in partnership with development partners, has developed a framework to fast-track seamless cross-border payments for MSMEs.

He added that “a key pillar of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is enabling Nigerians to access digital trade, which informed the capacity-building programme conducted for subnational governments last year”.

Shuda Ahmed, special assistant to the President on Project Support, Office of the Vice President, commended ODI Global for leading the research underpinning the report.

She noted that without seamless and affordable cross-border payment systems, MSMEs across the continent would be unable to scale beyond their domestic markets.

The event was attended by officials of ODI Global, representatives of AfCFTA, the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC), Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), and MSMEs, among other key stakeholders.

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E-Financial

Interswitch Deepens Strategic Partnership with KCB Group to Advance Digital Payments and Financial Inclusion

Published

1 hour ago

March 31, 2026

Chike Onwuegbuchi

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Interswitch, Africa-focused integrated payments and digital commerce enabler, has reaffirmed and expanded its longstanding partnership with KCB Group within the East Africa region, marking a significant milestone in the drive to accelerate seamless, secure, and inclusive digital payments across the region.

During a recent executive engagement at KCB Group Headquarters in Nairobi, Interswitch Founder and Group CEO, Mitchell Elegbe, led a cross-functional delegation from the company’s Lagos and Nairobi offices, including Interswitch’s Kenya Country General Manager, Bernard Kinara, in high-level discussions with KCB leadership, including Group CEO, Paul Russo, and Director of Strategy & Innovation, Mark Mwongela.

The engagement reinforced both organizations’ shared commitment to scaling digital payment infrastructure and delivering innovative financial solutions that meet the evolving needs of individuals, businesses, and institutions across the region.

Interswitch recently announced an expansion of Verve card acceptance footprint in Kenya, leveraging it’s consolidated partnership with KCB Group, Kenya’s largest financial services group by assets, following a similar move in Uganda through the local KCB Franchise in February 2022.

At the core of the strengthened collaboration is the integration of Interswitch’s robust payment rails, card scheme, and emerging digital token solutions with KCB Group’s expansive regional footprint and trusted banking franchise. This integration enables the acceptance of Verve cards and tokenized payment solutions across KCB’s extensive merchant point-of-sale network in Kenya and Uganda, significantly enhancing everyday usability for customers while strengthening KCB’s digitally driven retail payments offering.

The consolidated partnership is expected to drive increased merchant acquisition, improve interoperability across payment ecosystems, and expand access to secure, cashless transactions. It also reinforces both organizations’ shared objective of deepening financial inclusion and accelerating digital commerce across East Africa.

Speaking on the strategic engagement with KCB Group, Mitchell Elegbe noted:

“Our collaboration with KCB Group represents a powerful alignment of vision and capability. By combining our technology-driven payment solutions with KCB’s strong regional presence, we are unlocking new opportunities to scale access, drive innovation, and deliver greater value to customers across East Africa.”

As digital transformation continues to reshape Africa’s financial services landscape, Interswitch and KCB Group remain focused on building resilient, interoperable systems that empower businesses, support economic growth, and drive broader participation in the digital economy.

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