E-Financial
Gold – The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Weak economies are more vulnerable to uncertainty, political extremes and populism, post-World-War Germany and Russia proved this beyond a doubt. The Gold price tracks economic uncertainty, and by that token, it also tracks the outer reaches of the populist pendulum.
The more uncertainty there is over the economy, the more extreme are the pendulum’s swings to the left or right, and the dollar-denominated Gold price reflects both these phenomena.
In 1973, the then-US president Nixon took the country off the Gold standard, and ever since, traders have seen the asset as a hedge against uncertainty (the good), as a clear signal of economic trouble (the bad) and as a benchmark for populism and political instability (the ugly).
An economy that can’t sustain jobs or its financial system risks heading towards mass unrest. Economic instability creates circumstances that are easily exploited by demagogues and populists, examples include men like Hitler or Stalin.
Political leaders on either side of the political spectrum can gain immensely strong, even authoritarian positions by fear mongering and seeming to offer the only way out of financial or political insecurity.
The realisation that populism can lead to extremism gave birth to the European Union, which is based on the concept that mutual economic interests lead to stronger economies and peaceful cooperation. In 2017, the EU will be 60 years old, but what are the dangers ahead? Much has been made of the recent rise of populism in the US, UK and EU, but we must be careful in choosing our comparisons because circumstances are very different to the first half of the 20th Century when war left these countries utterly devastated.
In addition, today’s mature economies are structured very differently to those in the first 50 years of the 20th Century when they were built mainly on monarchical systems and the value of physical assets.
Back to the recent present, the US narrowly avoided a serious depression after the sub-prime crisis by pumping billions of dollars into the financial system in 2007/8. In 2009, the Gold price hit a record high of $1000 per ounce, reflecting the trading market’s safe-haven buying instincts. That was just the beginning.
By September 2011, the Gold price had hit a record high of $1920 per ounce, and another record was set for the US government debt ceiling.
The US has spent the last two administrations stabilising the economy, but the Federal Reserve is still cautious about raising interest rates. The main sources of the central bank’s reservations are global and domestic growth, which are still slower than expected.
These economic circumstances favoured the more colourfully-populist candidate in the recent US elections, and Donald Trump won the election on a platform focused on popular dissatisfaction and fear over job losses, pinning his campaign on immigration control and protectionist economic policies.
Pre-election, the Gold price rose, but those who are pinning their hopes on US populism pushing the Gold price even higher may be disappointed. Since the US elections and the end of uncertainty around them, Gold has fallen to below $1190 per ounce, indicating that investors are partial to Trump’s economic policies – at least for the time being.
Meanwhile, the EU and UK are going through a period of relatively slow growth and still recovering from their own recessions. The ECB and Bank of England are spending heavily and pumping money into national assets like sovereign and corporate bonds while keeping interest rates low.
The low growth rates in the last eight years have led to higher unemployment and more social unrest in the UK which Brexit campaigners directed at the EU, blaming it for the immigrants seen as taking British jobs.
True to form, the Gold price spiked in July 2016 after the Brexit vote triggered risk-aversion and uncertainty amid the increasingly populist and nationalist campaigning from the Brexit camp.
The UK is not alone in this trend; in the Spring of 2017, France faces the choice of a far-right candidate or a national front candidate during presidential elections. Gold could heat up during this period, especially since UK Prime Minister Theresa May said she will trigger Article 50 in March 2017.
The expectations are rising that there will be a ‘hard’ Brexit, meaning that the UK would be left out of the Single Market and go back to the days of bilateral tax and visa treaties with individual EU states, restricting migration and trade.
In addition to the Brexit fears, Gold was driven higher in 2016 during the Federal Reserve’s monthly announcements and continuing hesitation over raising US interest rates. Investors have a love-hate relationship with Gold and the Federal Reserve, when they’re disappointed in the Fed, they love Gold and buy it passionately. The reverse is also true, when traders fall back in love with the Fed, Gold is spurned in favour of USD-denominated assets.
Have we reached the point of nationalism, economic devastation and populism that led to dictatorships in Europe and dragged the world into more war? By no means. The economic outlook is still far more stable than it was post-World War II, and provided the US economy keeps growing there is more chance of other mature economies following suit.
The Gold price can indicate what level populism reaches before it tips over into extremism, before slow growth tips into recession. What it’s telling us now is that economically-speaking, we’re not out of the woods yet.
The good scenario is Gold reaching pre-subprime crisis levels below $1000 per ounce. The bad scenario is a rise over $1300 per ounce, as seen during the Brexit shock. The ugly – at least in terms of uncertainty and instability – is a return to $1920 and over.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued a fresh directive mandating all participants in the country’s payment ecosystem to complete migration to the ISO 20022 messaging standard and implement mandatory geo-tagging of payment terminals by October 31, 2025.
In a circular published on its official website on Tuesday, the apex bank reminded Deposit Money Banks (DMBs), Microfinance Banks (MFBs), Mobile Money Operators (MMOs), Switching and Processing Companies, Payment Terminal Service Providers (PTSPs), Payment Solution Service Providers (PSSPs), Super Agents, and other licensed operators that ISO 20022 is now the global benchmark for payments messaging.
The circular was signed by Dr Rakiya O. Yusuf, Director of the Payments System Supervision Department at the CBN and dated August 25, 2025.
According to the document, the move aligns with SWIFT’s global migration timeline and is intended to standardise quality data across Nigeria’s financial system.
“All payment transaction messages exchanged domestically or internationally must be formatted in ISO 20022 in line with CBN and SWIFT specifications,” the circular noted.
Institutions are also required to ensure accurate population of mandatory data elements, including payer and payee identifiers, merchant and agent identifiers, and transaction metadata.
The CBN stressed that compliance with these requirements is not optional, warning that all in-scope institutions must complete migration activities and achieve full compliance before the October 31 deadline.
Beyond messaging standards, the circular also introduces mandatory geo-tagging of payment terminals to enhance oversight and curb fraud in the electronic payments space.
All existing and newly deployed payment terminals are required to have native geolocation services enabled, supported by double-frequency GPS receivers. Terminals must also be registered with a Payment Terminal Service Aggregator (PTSA) with precise latitude and longitude coordinates tied to merchant business locations.
Also, the CBN mandated that Android OS version 10 is now the minimum software requirement for all terminals to ensure compatibility with the National Central Switch’s geolocation monitoring system.
Terminals not directly routed through a PTSA will not be permitted to transact, while geo-location data is to be captured at the point of transaction and included in the message payload as a mandatory reporting field.
“All existing terminals must be geo-tagged within 60 days of this circular; new terminals going forward must be geo-tagged before certification and activation,” the CBN stated.
Also, the regulator announced that compliance validation exercises will commence from October 20, 2025.
The circular emphasised that these reforms are aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s payments infrastructure, boosting transparency, and aligning with international best practices.
Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, the new insurance law, has provided up to N2 million in medical compensation for victims of road accidents involving uninsured vehicles.
This law aims to ensure that accident victims are not left without financial support for their medical treatment simply because the at-fault vehicle was uninsured.
It provides a safety net to protect innocent victims and ease their burden during recovery.
According to NIIRA 2025, any person involved in a motor accident caused by an uninsured vehicle or unidentified driver will henceforth be entitled to hospital expenses that shall not exceed N2 million.
Section 99 of the Act stated that the amount may be reviewed by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM).
It said a fund known as the Road Accident Victims Compensation Fund was established, and insurers are to pay 0.5 per cent of the underwriting profit on motor business to the fund’s pool.
The Act established the Road Safety and Accident Victims Compensation Committee (RSAVCC) which would be responsible for overseeing the management of the fund, even as it stresses that, NAICOM shall pay compensation in accordance with its regulations to any person in respect of death or bodily injury following a motor vehicle accident caused by an uninsured vehicle or unidentified driver.
The Act stipulates that expenses reasonably incurred by a hospital known to have treated any person involved in any motor accident by an uninsured vehicle or unidentified driver must be settled from the fund.
The NIIRA 2025 is a transformative new law signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu aimed at modernising and strengthening Nigeria’s insurance sector.
It consolidates several outdated insurance laws into a single, modern legal framework designed to drive financial stability, economic development, and inclusive growth in the insurance industry while supporting Nigeria’s goal of becoming a $1 trillion economy.
Key features of the NIIRA 2025 include: Higher capital requirements for insurance companies to ensure their financial soundness, with minimum capital thresholds set based on risk profiles (e.g., non-life insurance operators must have at least N25 billion); Mandatory enforcement of compulsory insurance policies, expanding coverage categories to include sectors like agriculture, public infrastructure, and cyber liability; Digitisation mandates improving access, reducing inefficiencies, and combating insurance fraud through digital value chains from underwriting to claims processing; Strict enforcement of timely claims settlements to enhance consumer protection.
Creation of policyholder protection funds to safeguard customers in cases where insurers become insolvent; More demanding licensing requirements and penalties for acting without proper authorisation in the insurance business as well as Expanded participation in regional insurance schemes, including the ECOWAS Brown Card System, to promote cross-border insurance cooperation.
The Act is designed to boost investor confidence, increase insurance penetration across Nigeria, and position Nigeria as a leading insurance hub within Africa.
Miden Systems Limited, an Abuja-based firm, has dragged Sterling Bank Limited and some of its management staff before the Chief Magistrate’s Court, Wuse Zone 2, Abuja, over allegations of conspiracy, forgery, fraud, criminal breach of trust, and misappropriation of funds running into over $200m.
The case, presided over by Magistrate Njideka Duru, was slated for hearing on Monday but was stalled due to the ongoing Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Conference in Enugu.
The matter was subsequently adjourned to September 10 for mention.
In a 29-page charge filed through its counsel, Louis Alozie, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Miden Systems accused the bank, its Chief Executive Officer, Sterling Financial Holdings Company Plc, and four others of using the company’s name to illegally open accounts and siphon its domiciled funds.
The complainant alleged that the defendants diverted foreign currency revenues meant for loan settlements for their personal gain, carried out massive unauthorized debits on its account, and deliberately denied it access to account statements despite repeated requests.
According to Miden, the bank unlawfully placed a lien on all its accounts without notice, shut it out of internet banking, and even refused to issue cheque books, all in a bid to conceal suspicious transactions.
One instance cited in the charge revealed that when Miden remitted dollar revenues at a period when the exchange rate stood at N150/$1 (with the market rate at N198/$1), the bank allegedly stockpiled over N2bn in its account.
By the time the naira had depreciated to nearly N500/$1, the bank reportedly sold the funds at the higher rate, rendering the original value of the dollars “almost worthless.”
The company also accused the bank of fabricating a N30m loan facility in its name barely three months after it had cleared all outstanding loans in 2017. It contended that the loan was unsolicited, unauthorized, and approved with forged signatures purportedly belonging to its Board of Directors.
Within days of booking the loan, the bank allegedly disbursed over N30m to a single beneficiary identified only as “AA.”
Similarly, Miden claimed that a separate $3m loan was fraudulently booked to another firm, Chasewood Limited, which later denied ever applying for such.
The facility was then shifted to Miden’s account on the pretext that both companies were “sister companies” — a claim Miden insists is false since the two are independent entities with no ownership ties.
In another revelation, Miden said it discovered forged documentation linked to a loan facility allegedly granted to the defendants by Afrexim Bank, involving what it described as “massive identity theft.”
The company also accused the bank of opening additional accounts in its name using a fictitious office address in Wuse 2, Abuja, unknown to it.
The company noted that after several failed attempts to resolve the matter directly with the bank, it petitioned the House of Representatives Committee on Public Petitions.
Following its review, the committee referred the allegations to the Inspector-General of Police (IGP). An investigation was carried out, and in February 2025, the police reportedly indicted the defendants in their report.
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