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Higher US Interest Rates Burn through Nigeria’s Reserves

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

 

Defending the Nigerian Naira against the mighty Dollar has come at a steep price to the central bank of Nigeria in the form of falling reserves.

Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have declined by roughly $2.1 billion in the last 30 days thanks to a broadly stronger Dollar and prospects of higher US interest rates. With the Fed expected to raise interest rates again in December, reserves are seen falling even further on the widening interest rate differentials between both central banks. If the Oil bull rally sputters and government revenues in Nigeria end up thinning, protecting the Naira could become increasingly complicated and strenuous for the central bank

 

Week ahead: Italian budget, ECB meeting & US GDP in focus

Asian shares were mostly higher this morning as Chinese indexes rallied more than 4% on verbal support from the country’s top officials.

Although the positive momentum from Asia has seeped into European markets, gains remain threatened by fragile risk sentiment. With investors bombarded by geopolitical factors such as trade tensions, Italy’s budget woes and Brexit-related uncertainty, caution is set to prevail this week. Global equity bulls still have an opportunity to re-enter the scene on the back of robust corporate earnings. However, expectations of higher US interest rates, global growth fears and geopolitical tensions all present downside risks to equity markets across the world.

 

Trade tensions sizzle in the background

US-China trade developments were back in focus following reports of White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow accusing Beijing of doing “nothing” to ease trade disputes ahead of a G20 meeting in Argentina next month.

This development has not only reduced optimism over the United States and China finding a middle ground on trade but raised prospects of the US next year boosting the tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports from 10% to 25%.

With a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies presenting a significant threat to global growth and stability, sentiment is poised to remain fragile.

 

Markets eye Italy budget

Italy’s budget woes with the European Union enters a critical phase today as Rome faces a noon deadline to explain why it is in breach of EU fiscal rules. With the Italian government bracing for the EU to reject its 2019 budget on Tuesday, the Euro is likely to take a hit. Uncertainty in Italy remains one the major geopolitical factors weighing on global sentiment and denting investor confidence.

 

ECB meeting on Euro’s radar

All eyes will be on this week’s European Central Bank meeting which is expected to conclude with monetary policy left unchanged.

With no rate moves expected, investors should not be quick to label this meeting as a non-event. Given the growing uncertainty revolving around the political situation in Italy, there will be an extra focus on Mario Draghi’s press conference. It will be interesting to hear Draghi’s thoughts on the developments in Italy and possible impacts they may have on the Eurozone economy. If the central bank head strikes a cautious and dovish tone, the Euro will most likely depreciate.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the EURUSD is trading back above the 1.1520 level this morning on the back of Dollar weakness. Intraday bulls could push the currency pair towards 1.1580 in the near term.

 

Focus on US Q3 GDP growth

The main event risk in the United States this week will be the first reading of third quarter GDP data scheduled for release on Friday. US economic growth is expected to have expanded 3.3% during the third quarter of 2018, slower than the 4.2% achieved in Q2. An upside surprise on GDP growth has the potential to boost buying sentiment towards the Dollar and reinforce market expectations of higher US interest rates.

 


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General News

MSMEs Paucity of Funds Receives Boost as Senate Backs Bill Seeking to Unlock Cash for them

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Businesses across Nigeria, particularly micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), may soon be able to convert unpaid invoices and credit sales into immediate cash without relying on conventional bank loans following the passage of the Factoring, Assignments and Receivables Financing Bill for second reading in the Senate.

The bill, which seeks to establish a legal framework for factoring and receivables financing, is expected to improve access to credit, boost liquidity for businesses and enhance domestic and international trade.

It also seeks to provide legal certainty for the assignment of receivables through factoring, promote transparency, modernise assignment laws and facilitate greater access to credit for businesses across the country.

Leading debate on the bill which was sent from the House of Representatives for concurrence, Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele said on Tuesday that the proposed legislation would create an enabling environment for debt factoring to thrive in Nigeria while defining the rights and obligations of creditors, factors and debtors involved in such transactions.

He explained that the bill provides for factoring contracts between sellers and factors and clarifies the legal relationship among parties in receivables financing arrangements.

According to Bamidele, the legislation has already passed all legislative stages in the House of Representatives and has complied with the Senate’s procedural requirements under Order 78(3) of the Senate Standing Orders.

He told lawmakers that the Senate Ad Hoc Committee on Compliance, chaired by Abdul Ningi, had scrutinised and cleared the bill for concurrence.

“The committee confirmed that all procedural requirements for consideration and concurrence by the Senate have been fully met,” he said.

Seconding the bill, Adetokunbo Abiru said the legislation would provide businesses with an alternative source of financing by enabling them to turn credit sales into cash and improve their working capital.

Abiru noted that factoring has become increasingly popular across Africa over the last decade, largely through initiatives supported by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).

He disclosed that the African factoring market is currently valued at over $50 billion, but Nigeria’s participation remains below one per cent.

According to him, countries such as Egypt and Morocco have benefited significantly from the financing model, adding that Nigeria risks missing out on the growing market without a clear regulatory framework.

“I think that passing this major legislation will help support our micro, small and medium enterprises in terms of converting most of their credit sales into cash without going through the normal borrowing arrangement,” Abiru said.

In his remarks, Ningi also assured lawmakers that the compliance committee had reviewed the bill and found no legal impediments to its passage.

Following a voice vote, the Senate approved the bill for second reading and subsequently referred it to the Committee of the Whole for clause-by-clause consideration.

 


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IMF Warns Nigeria of Risks in $5Bn Swap Deal with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank

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The IMF on Tuesday warned of risks surrounding Nigeria’s plan to borrow up to $5 billion through a derivatives agreement with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank, saying such transactions are often opaque and complex.

IMF Warns Nigeria of Risks in $5Bn Swap Deal with ‌First Abu Dhabi Bank

Recall that the Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement, joining other Africa borrowers like Senegal and Angola who have tapped similar arrangements over the past year.

“Our view is that the transaction in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque so the terms are not always very transparent when we reviewed these instruments ​across countries,” Christian Ebeke, IMF resident representative in Nigeria, told reporters.

Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.

Nigeria intends to use proceeds from the total return swap, or TRS, to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.

In its latest Article IV review, the Fund praised Nigeria’s sweeping reforms, saying they had strengthened economic stability and investor confidence, but warned that the benefits had ‌yet to reach millions of citizens and could be undermined by global shocks, including the Middle East conflict.

The reforms since 2023 under President Bola Tinubu – including fuel subsidy removal, tighter monetary policy and exchange rate liberalisation – had rebuilt buffers and improved macroeconomic management, the IMF said.

However, it cautioned that the reforms were also contributing to social strain, with poverty levels at 63% and millions facing food insecurity, underscoring a widening gap between macro gains and household realities.

The IMF said improved policy credibility and forex reforms had helped Nigeria regain access to international capital markets and attract portfolio inflows, while reducing risk premiums. The central bank says gross reserves are at $50 billion, the highest in 17 years.

But reliance on volatile foreign portfolio investment poses rollover risks, the IMF said, urging a shift towards more stable, long-term capital such as foreign direct investment.


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SSDC Warns Businesses against Cyber, Election-Related Risks

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Security Skills Development Company (SSDC) has released its 2026 Security Outlook, highlighting four major security challenges expected to shape Nigeria’s business and operating environment as the country moves closer to the 2027 general election.

SSDC Warns Businesses against Cyber, Election-Related Risks

The report, developed from a nationwide survey and expert contributions at the recently concluded Security Thought Leadership Roundtable, identifies internal security threats, protection of national assets, cyber risks and election-related instability as the most significant concerns facing organisations and institutions in the coming year.

According to SSDC, findings from the survey and stakeholder discussions reveal growing concern over the increasing complexity of security challenges and their potential impact on business continuity, economic stability and public confidence.

A substantial number of respondents identified internal threats within organisations as an emerging risk, pointing to the need for stronger corporate governance, workforce integrity measures and structured risk management systems.

Security experts at the roundtable noted that weaknesses in critical public infrastructure and national assets could have far-reaching consequences for the economy and national development if not adequately addressed.

The report also highlights cybercrime as a persistent and evolving threat to both public and private sector institutions.

Participants stressed the importance of strengthening cyber resilience through proactive monitoring, investment in technology-driven safeguards and improved security awareness.

Another key concern raised in the outlook is what SSDC described as the “2027 Election Shadow.” Many respondents expressed concerns about the possibility of heightened political tension as the election season approaches, warning that uncertainty and security disruptions could affect business operations, investment decisions and overall economic confidence.

Speaking on the report’s findings, Mike Igbodipe, managing director, SSDC, called for a more strategic approach to security management across both public and private sectors.

He said organisations must move beyond reactive security measures and integrate security considerations into their broader strategic planning and decision-making processes. He also advocated the development of a gold-standard, locally certified training programme for security professionals tailored to Nigeria’s unique security environment.

SSDC, a security training and consulting firm focused on advancing professional standards in Nigeria’s security sector and strengthening industrial resilience through capacity building and strategic expertise, said the Security Outlook forms part of its ongoing thought leadership initiative aimed at promoting informed dialogue on national security, institutional resilience and risk management.

The company reaffirmed its commitment to supporting stakeholders through research, training and strategic advisory services designed to improve preparedness and response to emerging security challenges.

 

 

 


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