E-Financial
IMF casts gloomy cloud over Nigeria’s economy

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM
Market optimism over Nigeria’s economic recovery received a blow in September following an International Monetary Fund (IMF) statement that the nation was performing poorly.
Although at the start of the year the economic outlook looked incredibly encouraging with Nigeria coming out of a recession, the latest IMF report planted a seed of doubt over that recovery. The nation’s GDP rate in 2018 was revised downwards from 2.1% with tepid growth expected next year. While there could be some truth behind the IMF’s gloomy predictions, it is worth noting they were likely based on trade tensions and stress in emerging markets weighing heavily on global sentiment. According to the IMF, Nigeria’s projected economic growth may not be enough to create jobs for the country’s robust population while inflation is expected to rise to 13.5% in 2019. Although the weak GDP growth witnessed in Q2 added to the factors that have stimulated fears over the economy, there is still some light at the end of the tunnel.
Nigeria’s macro fundamentals were mostly mixed during the third trading quarter with inflation dipping to a 11.14% low before rebounding to 11.24% in August. While consumer prices continued to stabilize, the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory. With foreign exchange reserves hovering around the $46 billion level thanks to higher oil prices, there was noticeable stability in the Naira. The mixed data, external factors, and looming election risk resulted in the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintaining status quo for the whole of Q3.
It will be interesting to see if the central bank is able to act during the final trading quarter of this year. Higher US interest rates have sparked capital outflows while global trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. Although inflationary pressure has eased, pre-election spending could end up driving consumer prices higher, ultimately complicating the CBN effort to cut interest rates. While the idea behind a rate cut was to stimulate Nigeria’s economic growth, such a strategy may end up widening the interest rate differentials between the Fed and CBN – consequently accelerating capital outflows.
Outside of Nigeria, the bullish sentiment towards the US economy, prospects of higher US interest rates and safe-haven flows have boosted the Greenback. An appreciating Dollar remains very bad news for emerging markets, with Nigeria on the list. With the US firing on all cylinders and the Fed expected to raise interest rates in December and three more times in 2019, EMs remain threatened by capital outflows.
Looking at oil, the commodity had an explosive start in October, with Brent Crude accelerating past $86 and West Texas Intermediate doing its best to catch up but falling behind by roughly $10. Even with reports of the US considering waivers on Iran oil sanctions, the outlook points to further upside. With oil markets heavily supported by trade policy changes in the US and geopolitical risk factors, this is good news for oil-dependent nations. A steady appreciation in oil is likely to support Nigeria which currently remains reliant on oil exports for a chunk of its government revenues.
As we head deeper into the final trading quarter of 2018, investors will be paying very close attention to domestic economic data, central bank policy, and GDP figures. With the IMF trimming Nigeria’s growth outlook this year and for 2019, this could be a wakeup call for the government to boost its efforts in diversifying the nation from oil reliance. There needs to be a stronger push on agriculture developments and reinforcing infrastructure to create a stable and sustainable macroeconomic environment. With the near-term outlook for oil prices bullish and the Naira witnessing stability against the Dollar, Q3 growth could offer markets a pleasant surprise. It will be interesting to see if positive growth during the third quarter is enough to encourage the CBN to cut interest rates before 2019.
E-Financial
Providus Bank Fully Meets CBN Capital Requirement, Sets Record Straight

Providus Bank Limited has dispelled media reports over its compliance with regulatory capital requirements, confirming that it has successfully met and exceeded the recapitalisation threshold set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

In a statement, the bank clarified that under the CBN’s recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are mandated to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion, stating unequivocally that it achieved this benchmark as far back as January 2025 and has since strengthened its financial standing.
According to the bank, its current paid-up capital stands at N65 billion, significantly above the regulatory minimum, underscoring its resilience and commitment to sound financial management.
The bank noted that this strong capital position places it in good stead to support its growth strategy and continue delivering value to customers and stakeholders.
Providus Bank emphasied that any suggestion implying non-compliance with the CBN’s recapitalisation requirement was inaccurate and does not reflect its current regulatory status.
The bank reiterated its dedication to maintaining robust governance standards and aligning with all prudential guidelines set by the apex regulator.
It explained: Providus Bank Limited notes recent media reports regarding the recapitalisation status of certain banks and considers it important to provide factual clarification as it relates to the Bank. Under the CBN recapitalisation framework, regional commercial banks are required to maintain a minimum capital base of N50 billion.
“Providus Bank confirms that it had met its capital requirement since January 2025 and currently has a capital base of N65 billiom which is in excess of its capital requirement.
Accordingly, any suggestion that Providus Bank has not met the applicable recapitalisation threshold is not consistent with its current regulatory standing.”
The Olayemi Cardoso-led Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had, on March 28, 2024, announced a two-year bank recapitalisation exercise which commenced on April 1, 2024.
The 24-month timeline for compliance ends on March 31, 2026. The upward capital revision is expected to ensure that Nigerian banks have the capacity to take on bigger risks and stay afloat amid both domestic and external shocks.
Specifically, the recapitalisation exercise requires a minimum capital of N500 billion, N200 billion, and N50 billion for commercial banks with international, national, and regional licences, respectively.
E-Financial
UBA UK, BII Sign Letter of Intent to Slash Africa’s $80Bn Trade Finance Gap

United Bank for Africa (UK) Limited (“UBA UK”) and British International Investment plc (“BII”), the UK’s development finance institution and impact investor, today announced that they have signed a letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities. The proposed initiative aims to expand access to trade and working capital facilities for businesses operating across Africa.

L-r: West Africa Director and Head of Office Africa Coverage, BII West Africa, Benson Adenuga; Managing Director and Head of Africa, BII, Chris Chijiutomi; Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, Loknath Mishra; Group Managing Director, United Bank for Africa (Plc) during the signing of letter of intent to develop trade finance collaboration opportunities.
Access to trade finance remains one of the most significant structural constraints on African trade. Businesses – particularly small and medium-sized enterprises – are frequently unable to secure letters of credit, guarantees, and supply chain finance on commercially viable terms, limiting their capacity to export and import competitively. This trade finance gap is estimated by the African Development Bank to be over USD 80 billion annually.
To help close this gap, UBA UK, the London subsidiary of UBA Group, Africa’s Global Bank, will leverage its deep relationships across the Group’s 20-country African network to originate and structure trade finance transactions. While BII, with a mandate to support productive, sustainable, and inclusive growth across Africa, can support transactions that might otherwise fall outside conventional commercial appetite.
Lok Mishra, Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, said: “The signing of this letter with BII represents a landmark moment for UBA UK and for the UBA Group’s global ambitions. As the Group’s hub for Trade Operations, UBA UK is uniquely positioned to connect African businesses with the international financial system.
“Working alongside BII, we can extend that capability further — mobilising capital where it matters most and helping to close the trade finance gap that holds back so much African potential.”
Chris Chijiuitomi, Managing Director and Head of Africa, said: “British International Investment is committed to catalysing private sector growth across Africa, and trade finance is a critical enabler of that growth.
“We welcome the opportunity to collaborate with UBA Group, whose pan-African network and deep institutional relationships can help advance our ambition to expand access to trade and working capital finance, particularly in frontier markets.”
The announcement builds on growing momentum around intra-African trade facilitated by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which entered into force in 2021 and represents one of the world’s most ignificant trade integration initiatives.
Both institutions have identified the operationalisation of AfCFTA as a priority catalyst for a trade finance facility, with UBA UK’s network across major AfCFTA economies offering a basis for supporting businesses navigating the emerging continental market.
This also complements the UK Government’s broader engagement with African economic development, including commitments made at the UK-Africa Investment Summit, and reinforces the City of London’s role as a leading international finance centre for Africa-focused capital mobilisation.
Future cooperation remains subject to further assessment, due diligence and the completion of internal approvals by both parties.
E-Financial
CBN Introduces Stricter BVN Rules to Curb Fraudulent Transactions

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has introduced stricter rules guiding the use and management of the Bank Verification Number (BVN) as part of efforts to reduce fraudulent transactions within the financial system.The revised framework, which takes effect from May 1, includes tighter controls on BVN enrolment, data access and customer information updates.

The apex bank said the measures are aimed at strengthening identity management, improving fraud monitoring and safeguarding the integrity of banking transactions.
Under the new guidelines, BVN enrolment is now restricted to individuals aged 18 and above, while customers will only be allowed to change the phone number linked to their BVN once.
The restriction is designed to curb identity manipulation often exploited by fraudsters through repeated updates of personal information.
The CBN also directed financial institutions to maintain a temporary watchlist for BVNs linked to suspicious transactions.
Affected BVNs may be flagged for up to 24 hours, during which customers are expected to verify or clarify flagged transactions before further action is taken.
In addition, access to BVN data has been tightened, with the apex bank retaining exclusive control over the database while granting access only to licensed financial institutions under defined conditions.
The move, according to the CBN, is expected to enhance data security and support a more resilient financial system as BVN enrolment continues to grow.
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