News
Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

By Austin Okere
The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls.
There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.
The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel.
Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.
During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy.
Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b.
Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.
The major difference between them is that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.
Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.
It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.
I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel.
This assumes we have all agreed that the current crisis is much too painful and too precious to waste.
It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves.
There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity.
We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation.
Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.
An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media.
At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.
Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide.
I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.
The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.
Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing.
But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.
The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.
Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.
News
GSK to Slash Cost of Malaria Jab to Less than $5

The manufacturers of the world’s first malaria vaccine are set to slash the price by more than half by 2028 to less than$5 per dose.
The manufacturers of the shot, known as RTS,S, said a phased reduction in cost would begin immediately, with an ultimate aim to reduce the price to less than $5.
The announcement could hardly come at a more critical moment.
Gavi, a major vaccination initiative which funds immunisations in the world’s poorest countries, is facing a major budget crunch.
In Brussels on Wednesday, Gavi’s replenishment event raised $9 billion to fund immunisation programmes over the next five years. While this sounds like a huge sum, it’s significantly less than the $11.9bn the group had been aiming for.
Governments around the world are cutting development spending dramatically.
The UK, for instance, cut its contribution to Gavi by 40 per cent in real terms, telling The Telegraph it was prioritising defence, while the US has pledged nothing at all.
Though America previously gave Gavi roughly $300m a year, the country’s new health secretary claimed without evidence that the organisation was ignoring vaccine safety.
The announcement from the British pharmaceutical giant GSK and Indian drugmaker Bharat Biotech will therefore be a relief to those trying to balance the books.
In a statement the companies said the price reduction demonstrated their “commitment to Gavi”, and was “driven by process improvements, expanded production capacity, cost-effective manufacturing, and minimal profit margins”.
By the time the price has fallen to below $5 per dose, a technology transfer agreement means Bharat will have taken over production, though GSK will continue to supply the adjuvant piece of the shot.
“For us, this is more than a cooperation, it’s a promise,” said Dr Krishna Ella, executive chairman of Bharat Biotech International Limited.
“By joining forces with GSK, and working closely with Gavi, and the WHO [World Health Organization], we are taking a real step toward closing the gap between vaccine supply and the urgent needs of children at risk of malaria.”
Each year, malaria still kills 500,000 people – the vast majority of them children aged five and under in sub-Saharan Africa.
According to WHO estimates, cases and deaths fell significantly between 2000 and 2015, but progress has since stalled.
Some have high hopes that RTS,S, as well as another vaccine called R21 developed by Oxford University, could prove critical in efforts to turn the tide.
In clinical trials, RTS,S reduced hospitalisations for severe malaria by 30 per cent.
But critics say the shot is too expensive and not as effective as existing tools, such as bed nets and antimalarials.
The reduction in price will bring it more in line with the cost of R21, which is priced at around $4 per dose.
Yet the cost will still add up, as both jabs require multiple shots. For RTS,S, this means four doses – the first three doses are given monthly, starting around five months of age, while the fourth dose is administered 15-18 months later.
Both jabs “provide reasonable short term efficacy – over about a year – so are a useful addition to other measures,” said Professor Nick White, a professor at the Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit who specialises in malaria.
“In the past GSK had limited production capacity – one of the reasons the R21 was developed. So reducing the price will be good and the two comparable vaccines can fight it out in the market place.”
A spokesperson for Gavi said the alliance’s goal is to “create sustainable demand backed by predictable financing so that companies – like GSK and Bharat – can continue investing in technology transfer and other efficiencies that bring down costs, thus making critical vaccines more available and affordable.
GSK’s decision to lower its prices, the spokesperson added, is “an important step for the global malaria vaccination programme, and our ability to make this lifesaving tool more widely available to those who need it the most”.
Gavi plans to help fund RTS,S in 12 African countries by the end of this year.
Previously, GSK has said it will supply up to 18 million vaccine doses between 2023 and the end of this year.
The company plans to supply 15 million doses annually from 2026-2028, a spokesperson told Reuters.
News
Rack Centre Signs Collocation Deal with TelCables Nigeria

Rack Centre, West Africa’s Tier III carrier- and cloud-neutral data centre, has struck a collocation agreement with TelCables Nigeria, an Angola Cables subsidiary.
TelCables Nigeria is delivering its high-capacity network and cloud infrastructure, as well as four international subsea cable systems (SACS, MONET, SEBRAS, and EllaLink), directly into Rack Centre’s regional carrier ecosystem as part of the agreement.
According to Angola Cables, the move provides reliable, low-latency south-bound routes to Europe, the Americas, and Latin America, reducing the danger of future cable disruptions along West Africa’s coast and enabling next-generation cloud services across the continent.
“Our unique Africa – to – Latin America route via SACS, combined with MONET, SEBRAS and EllaLink, gives customers the lowest – latency paths to the Americas and Europe,” said Fernando Fernandes, CEO of TelCables Nigeria.
“Businesses in latency sensitive sectors: financial services, content delivery and real-time communications will experience faster transactions, reduced lag and an enhanced user experience.
“By hosting at Rack Centre we also localise Clouds2Africa resources, price them in naira, and remove expensive ingress/egress charges or FX exposure.”
Rack Centre said its 13.5MW data centre campus designed with its recently launched LGS2 facility that delivers a design PUE of 1.35 and powered from sustainable energy sources, already hosts 70+ carriers, ISPs and network operators.
Lars Johannisson, CEO of Rack Centre, commented: “Adding a global operator of Angola Cables’ calibre through TelCables Nigeria dramatically deepens our connectivity fabric.
“We can now offer 99.95 % SLA routes to more destinations, enabling enterprises, governments and cloud providers to meet performance and data-residency requirements while keeping traffic local.”
News
Lagos Plastic Ban: MAN Warns of Job Losses, Closure of Businesses

Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has expressed concerns over the impending ban on Single-Use Plastics (SUPs) by the Lagos State Ministry of Environment.
It warned that it could lead to job losses and and lead to economic, operational, and social consequences for manufacturers, traders, recyclers, and end users.
Segun Ajayi-Kadir, director general, MAN, in a statement called on the Lagos State government to reconsider the ban, citing a lack of credible data and stakeholder engagement.
According to Ajayi-Kadir, a recent study revealed that 100% of manufacturers surveyed expressed fears of job losses and workforce restructuring if the ban is implemented.
He said, “A recent MAN-supported study evaluating the possible impacts of the Lagos State SUPs ban revealed significant adverse economic, operational, and social implications across the value chain, from manufacturers to wholesalers, traders, and end users. It has been noted that only poor and developing countries often tilt towards plastic ban as a strategy to combat environmental problems.
“A hundred percent of the manufacturers consulted expressed concern over a ban-induced workforce restructuring. Thus, several jobs will be lost in the industry if this ban were to be implemented.
“It is noteworthy to mention that there is no form of arrangement for social protection for the employees who will lose their livelihoods as a result of this ban.
“Also, there has been no form of social dialogue on the part of the government with these workers or the industry on the potential job losses.”
According to him, findings showed that 89% of operators in the plastic value chain rely on SUPs as their primary source of income with no alternative source of livelihoods, over 75% of end users, including SMEs, depend on plastic packaging with no affordable or practical alternatives, and 93% of dealers, many of whom are women, reported no prior information or social support mechanisms to cushion the impact.
Ajayi-Kadir emphasised that banning SUPs would not resolve pollution issues but merely substitute one problem for another, especially without scalable alternatives or infrastructure to support the transition.
He urged the government to focus on improving waste management infrastructure and promoting recycling, rather than imposing bans.
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