Connect with us

News

Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 1)

Published

on

Kindly share this post

By Austin Okere

The recurrent mistake we keep making as a Nation is failing to anticipate and plan for our oil windfalls.

There have been many boom opportunities since Nigeria joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971; Oil prices increased by 400% in six short months after the Yom Kippur War following the Arab Oil Embargo. Crude prices doubled from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981 following the Iran/Iraq war.

The price of crude oil spiked in 1990 with the uncertainties associated the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuring Gulf War – the so called ‘Gulf War windfall’ under then Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the latest windfall happened between February 2011 and August 2014, under the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, when oil prices were much in excess of $100 per barrel.

Another golden opportunity was squandered, characterised by organised kleptocracy of epic proportions as has now come to light.

During this same period Saudi Arabia has amassed a whopping $593b in foreign exchange reserves and has recently announced that it is creating a $2 trillion mega-sovereign wealth fund, funded by sales of current petroleum industry assets, to prepare itself for an age when oil no longer dominates the global economy.

Coming closer home, Algeria, the second biggest African oil producer, with 1.9mbpd has accumulated foreign reserves of $156b and a sovereign wealth fund of $50b.

Nigeria, by far the biggest producer in Africa with 2.5mbpd has only managed foreign reserves of $28b and a sovereign wealth fund of a paltry $2.9b – about 5% that of Algeria.

The major difference between them is that while the Algerians saved for a rainy day during the boom years, Nigeria was busy squandering her wealth, with nothing to show by way of infrastructure or any solid investments.

Yet Nigeria was able to balance her budget, pay off her debts and save over $62b in foreign reserves during the Obasanjo presidency from 1999 to 2007, even though the price of crude was mostly under $40 per barrel, except for the two years between 2005 and 2007 when it hovered between $50 and $75 dollars per barrel.

It is bothersome that with the same level of oil price, Nigeria today is struggling to balance her budget and has resorted to aggressive borrowing to finance the deficit, inadvertently driving us back to where we were before escaping from the huge burden of sovereign debt and the attendant debilitating impact of debt servicing.

I believe that Nigeria can save as much as $36.5b in the coming year if oil prices recover towards the end of 2016 and through 2017 to the projected $80 per barrel.

This assumes we have all agreed that the current crisis is much too painful and too precious to waste.

It can actually be a blessing in disguise, affording us the much needed leverage to deliberately diversify our economy away from the over dependence on oil, and attempt to become self-sufficient in every low hanging opportunity such as feeding ourselves.

There is a reason why the Chinese use the same word for challenge and opportunity; behind every challenge is an opportunity.

We must seize this golden opportunity with both hands and make the structural changes that will lead us to true prosperity as a nation.

Almost every third Nigerian businessman you come across claims to be into Oil and Gas; usually, briefcase contractors who manage to have their ‘papers’ stamped, and proceed to collect money from the treasury of our commonwealth. Yet oil contributed only 6.4% to GDP growth in 2015.

An often overlooked area for rapid economic growth is telecoms, entertainment and media.

At a recent event in Lagos, Dr. Doyin Salami, lecturer at Lagos Business School, remarked that ‘The telecommunication sector grew Nigeria’s GDP by 8.7% in 2015, generating spill overs, with uptakes in financial transactions technology and payment systems, e-commerce facilitation and proliferation of transport services, while making the offering of the burgeoning entertainment industry ubiquitous’.

Quite simply, if each of the 34 million MSME’s in Nigeria could be supported with technology to improve their businesses through online presence and seamless bookkeeping to the point of employing one more staff, they would create an additional 34 million jobs, much more than the government can ever provide.

I totally agree with Dr. Salami that Nigeria’s economy has systematically and strategically diversified along the lines of technology and other services sector without Nigerians noticing.

The services sector today contributes as much as 52% of Nigeria’s GDP.

Agriculture is also another sector that could do with special attention. If we strive to produce what we eat, we will not only be saving a whopping $6b from our import bill, but also provide the opportunity for inclusive growth, with the spill over effects down the value chain, from logistics and transportation to light manufacturing.

But we need to make the right investments in infrastructure such as roads and rail transport linking farms with their food processors and markets.

The change that will make all this happen is not the ‘outsourced variety’ where we believe that we can carry on with business as usual, or sit back and fold our arms while only the President delivers the promised change. All hands must be on deck, and we each have to be the change we desire.

 

Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.


Kindly share this post

Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

News

NRC, Ponzi Scheme Collapses Resulting Loss of Billions of Naira

Published

on

Kindly share this post

National Reading Culture (NRC), an online investment platform targeting Nigerians has collapsed, resulting in the loss of billions of Naira for investors.

NRC, Ponzi Scheme Collapses Resulting Loss of Billions of Naira

The website unexpectedly shut down, blocking users from withdrawing their funds and locking in their investments.

Just like all other investment scams, victims were lured with promises of doubling their money in few weeks.

When National Reading Culture eventually crashed, the operators vanished with users’ funds, leaving investors devastated.

How the Platform WorkedTask-Based Earning:

According findings, National Reading Culture lured users with promises of making money by completing simple daily tasks like reading articles, clicking links, or inviting friends.

They also offered investment tiers to  earn higher daily profits, where users had to deposit their own money into the platform.

Evidence showed the website previously operated as a Chinese job search platform before rebranding into an “earning” scheme.


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

News

NSITF Partners South African Insurer on Digital Transformation

Published

on

Kindly share this post

The Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Rand Mutual Assurance (RMA) to collaborate on digital transformation aimed at strengthening worker protection systems and support economic growth.

According to RMA, the agreement was concluded during a visit by its delegation to Abuja.

The partnership will focus on institutional capability development, modernising operating models, improving service delivery and sharing knowledge between the two organisations.

Through the partnership, RMA and NSITF will collaborate to strengthen institutional capability, modernise operating models, accelerate digital transformation and improve services for workers and employers.

The organisations will also explore opportunities for knowledge exchange and the adoption of best practices in social security administration.

RMA said the agreement forms part of its broader engagement with governments, regulators and social security institutions across Africa to support improvements in governance, operational resilience and service delivery.

“Our partnership with NSITF reflects much more than the signing of an agreement,” said Mandla Shezi, group chief executive officer of RMA. “This partnership is not simply about sharing knowledge. It is about co-creating the next generation of African social security systems.”

He added: “By combining our respective strengths, we can help build institutions that are more resilient, more responsive and better equipped to protect workers while supporting national development.”

Shezi said the future of social security depends on integrated systems where prevention, insurance, healthcare, rehabilitation, technology, investment management and institutional capability work together.

 


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

News

Senate Rejects Nationalisation of MTN, DStv Over Xenophobic Attacks on Nigerians in South Africa

Published

on

Kindly share this post

Senate on Tuesday rejected calls for the nationalisation of South African-owned companies operating in Nigeria, including MTN and DStv, as a retaliatory measure against renewed xenophobic attacks on Nigerians in South Africa.

Senate Rejects Nationalisation of MTN, DStv Over Xenophobic Attacks on Nigerians in South Africa

The upper chamber, however, condemned the attacks and intimidation of Nigerians and other African nationals in South Africa, urging the Federal Government to intensify diplomatic efforts to secure the safety of Nigerians living in the country.

The resolutions followed a motion titled: “Motion on the Need to Halt the Recurring Xenophobic Attacks and Intimidation Against Nigerians and Other African Nationals in the Republic of South Africa,” sponsored by Senator Asuquo Ekpenyong (APC-Cross River South).

The motion was triggered by renewed concerns over attacks against foreign nationals in South Africa following the expiration of a June 30, 2026 deadline reportedly issued by some vigilante groups asking foreigners to leave the country.

During the debate, Senator Wasiu Eshilokun proposed that South African companies operating in Nigeria should be nationalised, while Senator Adams Oshiomhole suggested that profits generated by South African firms could be appropriated to compensate Nigerians who suffered losses if the South African government failed to provide compensation.

Oshiomhole argued that Nigerians should not continue to bear the consequences of attacks against their businesses and lives while South African companies operating in Nigeria continued to make profits.

He said the government should consider using profits from affected companies to compensate victims if South Africa refused to address the losses suffered by Nigerians.

However, the Senate declined the proposal, opting instead for diplomatic engagement and further investigation into the attacks.

Presiding over plenary, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin cautioned lawmakers against relying on unverified social media reports and urged a careful approach to the matter.

Jibrin said Nigeria must condemn attacks against its citizens but should allow relevant committees to complete their investigations before taking further actions.

He directed the Senate Committees on Foreign Affairs and Diaspora and Non-Governmental Organisations to review previous resolutions on the matter and submit a report within two weeks.

The Senate also urged the Federal Government, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Nigerian High Commission in South Africa, to obtain written assurances from South African authorities on the protection of Nigerians and demand the arrest and prosecution of persons responsible for violence, intimidation and looting.

The lawmakers further called for collaboration with other African countries and relevant continental institutions to establish effective mechanisms for monitoring and preventing xenophobic attacks.

Senator Ekpenyong had earlier raised concerns that the attacks were no longer limited to undocumented migrants but had extended to Nigerians with valid work and residence permits.

He described the situation as a threat to the dignity and safety of Nigerians abroad, urging the government to take stronger measures to protect citizens.

The Senate’s latest action comes amid renewed public anger over attacks targeting Nigerians and other foreigners in South Africa, with lawmakers insisting that diplomatic solutions should be prioritised over economic retaliation.


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

Trending