News
Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 2)
By Austin Okere
I will attempt to share the justification for this projection from the insights expressed by experts at various fora, and my own informed postulations.
Depending on which expert you talk to, and the perceived direction of the Chinese economy, you get three different views; a school of thought holds that the price of oil may be far from the top but closer to the bottom, while others believe that oil price will bottom out at about $20 per barrel. Yet another group holds that Oil price has reached equilibrium and will oscillate between $40 and $45 per barrel.
The optimists believe that oil price will recover to between $70 and $80 per barrel towards the end of the year, and remain within that band, as a sustainable balance between demand and supply is reached.
According to the 2015 OPEC annual statistics bulletin, world crude production in 2014 was 73.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) while demand was 91.3mbpd.
With the significant scale back in shale production arising from the steep price drop from late 2014 to levels that make shale production unviable, it will be safe to assume that production has dropped considerably while demand has more or less remained steady.
The major issue for me is the question of the so called glut. If there is indeed a glut, what is the accurate size of the glut and therefore, how long will it take for supply and demand to balance out.
I listened to an expert at a recent forum argue very eloquently against the widely touted 850 million barrel excess crude inventory.
Based on the data he and his firm have meticulously collected, he believes that the excess supply cannot be more than a quarter of the touted figure.
This means that the glut is overstated by 600 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it will be, adding only 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); only a fifth of their forecast of 1mbpd.
The IEA also believes that non-OPEC output will fall by 750,000 bpd in 2016, while US production alone will decline by 530,000 bpd this year.
The other possible disrupter to oil is the incentive to explore alternative forms of energy such as renewables, majorly solar and wind, in response to the impending carbon tax fuelled by fears of global warming and pollution.
According to Amy Jaffe and Jeroen van der Veer, leading experts on global energy policy, factors such as technological advancements, the falling price of batteries that power electric vehicles, and a post-COP21 (UN Climate change conference in Paris in 2015) push for cleaner energy could drive oil use below 80 million barrels a day by 2040.
These threats to oil do not seem practical on a meaningful scale in the near to medium term.
The example in Germany seems to buttress the fact that renewables may not make sense in Europe and other cold climes, and that they can only be achieved with very steep and unsustainable subsidies.
It is reported that Germany, the poster boy for renewables has so far invested about $500b on wind and solar energy. And yet renewables account for only 3.5% of global energy use, while oil and gas accounts for as much as 60% (this excludes shale, peat and coal, which account for 10%).
Electricity accounts for 18%, while biofuels and waste account for the balance 12%. In simple terms, the eight major oil companies, with a cumulative valuation of $1.4trillion generate as much as 20 million barrels per day versus the $2trillion invested so far to generate the equivalent of 7million barrels of oil per day in renewable energy. How sustainable is this huge subsidy?
For the switch to electric cars to happen, we would need to replace refineries producing petrol with power plants that will produce the additional electricity required to charge the electric cars. How quickly can this switch happen, even if it were practical?
My theory on the oil narrative is as follows: Saudi Arabia being the biggest reserve holder wanted to drive the shale producers, whom they saw as ‘squatters’ out of the market.
They opened their taps to drive prices down, knowing that shale needed an oil price of above $40 to produce at break even.
The high oil prices were driving cheap capital into shale and improving technology and yielding high returns and thus attracting more capital and repeating the cycle, thereby iteratively making shale a bigger threat.
I believe that the Saudi plan was hijacked by the Oil traders, who thrive on price arbitrage fuelled by uncertainty.
They rode on the back of increased Saudi production to shout ‘oil glut’! They increased the FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) with news of huge inventories coming on stream following the lifting of sanctions against Iran, but the general view is that Iran’s oil was already finding its way into the market through the back door, resulting in an insignificant net increase in supply.
It then became a self-fulfilling prophesy which snowballed, with the producers pumping recklessly to maintain market share and preserve earnings, which drove prices further down, exacerbating a bad situation.
I believe that the oil traders and bankers are trying to make up for a lost bet on the back of overenthusiastic exposure to the oil market. This is captured by the screaming headline in the Financial Times of March 22, 2016 ‘$150b losses on energy company bonds spur default fears’.
The article further states that the total debt among oil and gas companies including loans almost tripled from $1.1trillion in 2006 to $3 trillion in 2014 quoting the Bank for International Settlements.
Twenty of Europe’s biggest banks have energy loans totalling $200b, enough to wipe out a quarter of their common equity, while twenty of the leading US banks have loans totalling $115b or 11% of their equity.
With the desperation arising from a risky bet gone awry, one does not need to dig too deep to glean a motivation to drive prices down, buy on the cheap and subsequently sell on the high to cover the huge debts.
I believe that in the end, the market will wave its magic wand, and supply and demand will correct themselves and reach equilibrium with price. You cannot hide a pregnancy for too long.
It is not at all surprising that the heads of the world’s largest oil trading houses, six of which sell enough oil to meet almost a fifth of global demand were unanimous in calling for an end to the two year price slump at a Financial Times conference in Lausanne.
What should be more important to all of us, beyond these theories is whether Nigeria will finally learn from her past mistakes and institute a mechanism for saving when oil prices rebound, as I believe they eventually will. And what if the optimists are wrong, and prices do not rise. We would have lost nothing.
We would have learnt to diversify away enough from oil to live comfortably within the current price. If on the other hand the optimists are right, then we will save the equivalent of $36.5b per year (i.e. 2.5mbpd X extra $40per barrel X 365 days).
In any case we would have nothing to lose by preparing and having to wait a while longer than anticipated. Success only happens when opportunity meets preparation.
Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.
Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has expressed concerns over the impending ban on Single-Use Plastics (SUPs) by the Lagos State Ministry of Environment.
It warned that it could lead to job losses and and lead to economic, operational, and social consequences for manufacturers, traders, recyclers, and end users.
Segun Ajayi-Kadir, director general, MAN, in a statement called on the Lagos State government to reconsider the ban, citing a lack of credible data and stakeholder engagement.
According to Ajayi-Kadir, a recent study revealed that 100% of manufacturers surveyed expressed fears of job losses and workforce restructuring if the ban is implemented.
He said, “A recent MAN-supported study evaluating the possible impacts of the Lagos State SUPs ban revealed significant adverse economic, operational, and social implications across the value chain, from manufacturers to wholesalers, traders, and end users. It has been noted that only poor and developing countries often tilt towards plastic ban as a strategy to combat environmental problems.
“A hundred percent of the manufacturers consulted expressed concern over a ban-induced workforce restructuring. Thus, several jobs will be lost in the industry if this ban were to be implemented.
“It is noteworthy to mention that there is no form of arrangement for social protection for the employees who will lose their livelihoods as a result of this ban.
“Also, there has been no form of social dialogue on the part of the government with these workers or the industry on the potential job losses.”
According to him, findings showed that 89% of operators in the plastic value chain rely on SUPs as their primary source of income with no alternative source of livelihoods, over 75% of end users, including SMEs, depend on plastic packaging with no affordable or practical alternatives, and 93% of dealers, many of whom are women, reported no prior information or social support mechanisms to cushion the impact.
Ajayi-Kadir emphasised that banning SUPs would not resolve pollution issues but merely substitute one problem for another, especially without scalable alternatives or infrastructure to support the transition.
He urged the government to focus on improving waste management infrastructure and promoting recycling, rather than imposing bans.
A Federal High Court in Ikeja, Lagos state has sentenced 23 Chinese nationals to one year imprisonment each for their involvement in cyberterrorism and internet fraud.
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) arraigned them before Justices D.E. Osiagor, D.I. Dipeolu, and A.O. Faji on a single count of cyberterrorism and online fraud.
Dele Oyewale, spokesperson, EFCC, revealed that the convicted individuals were members of a cyber-fraud syndicate comprising 792 people.
He noted that the culprits were arrested on Thursday, December 19, 2024 in Lagos, during an operation known as ‘Eagle Flush.’
Oyewale stated that the individuals identified as Yu Hui (also known as A. Bin), Huang Jin Hui, Fei Fan, Lu Qiang, Hu Xi Zheng, Sun Zhi Peng, Wu Hao, Cong Bing, and Li Qiang alias Yang Huan Huan, Zheng Wei alias A. Hong, Cheng Jian, Da Tou, A Wen, Zhang Lei, Huang Zhi, Pan Jiong, Chen Wen Yuan, Jia You alias A. You, Wang Zheng Feng alias Feng, Liu San Hua, Liu Beixing, and Wen Zong Xu alias Li Long were all charged on one count of online fraud and cyber-terrorism.
One of the charges brought against Yu Hui (also known as A. Bin) claimed that he, along with others, unlawfully accessed computer systems in Lagos around December 2024 with the intent to destabilize and damage Nigeria’s economy and social structure.
According to the EFCC, this act violated Section 18(1) of the Cybercrimes (Prohibition, Prevention, Etc.) Act, 2015, and is punishable under that law.
Similarly, another charge filed against Jia You, accused him of accessing computer systems with the aim of undermining and harming Nigeria’s economic and social stability.
This action was said to be in breach of both the Cybercrimes Act and the Terrorism (Prevention and Prohibition) Act, 2022.
Initially all the defendants pleaded not guilty to the charges.
However, during the court session, they pleaded guilty.
The EFCC prosecution team comprising of Nneemeka Omewa, Babatunde Sonoiki, U.S Kyari, and B.M Isah informed the court that the defendants had reached plea bargain agreements.
The defence team confirmed this and requested the court to adopt the terms of the agreements.
Justices Osiagor, Faji, and Dipeolu found each defendant guilty and sentenced them to one year in prison, with the sentence starting from their arrest date on Tuesday, December 10, 2024.
Each convict was also fined N1 million.
Additionally, the judges ordered the Nigerian Immigration Service (NIS) to deport the convicts within seven days of completing their sentences.
All devices recovered during the operation including mobile phones, laptops, and routers were forfeited to the Nigerian government.
News
Galaxy Backbone Reaffirms Commitment to Support Security Agencies with Its Vast Digital Infrastructure
The Board, Management, and Staff of Galaxy Backbone (GBB) express profound sorrow and heartfelt condolences to the governments and people of Benue, Borno, Plateau, Anambra, and other states affected by recent waves of violent attacks and insecurity. We mourn with every family, community, and institution that has suffered the pain of loss, displacement, and trauma.
At Galaxy Backbone (GBB), we firmly believe that security is the bedrock of any thriving society. No nation can make meaningful progress when peace is threatened. These tragic incidents are not just national emergencies, they represent deep personal losses to every Nigerian, and they call for urgent, united, and technology-enabled solutions to support lasting peace.
As a Federal Government organization, entrusted with delivering secure digital infrastructure and smart technology solutions to public institutions across Nigeria, Galaxy Backbone remains resolute in its commitment to supporting state governments and security agencies through cutting-edge digital platforms that enable proactive and intelligent security management.
We also acknowledge and commend the visionary leadership of His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, and the concerted efforts of the Federal Government of Nigeria in responding decisively to the security challenges facing parts of the country. The President’s unwavering commitment to peace, safety, and national unity under the Renewed Hope Agenda is evident in the bold steps being taken to restore order and build a more secure Nigeria.
Through our Safe City Security Solutions, GBB offers an integrated suite of smart surveillance systems, real-time data analytics, emergency communication networks, and AI-enabled threat detection tools. These solutions are specifically designed to enhance operational capabilities, strengthen coordination across security agencies, and empower informed decision-making in high-risk environments.
GBB stands ready to partner with both state governments and security agencies that are committed to building safer, smarter, and more resilient communities. We believe that technology must lead the charge in safeguarding lives, and we are proud to serve as a trusted digital ally in Nigeria’s journey toward modern, tech-enabled public safety.
Together, we can bolster early warning systems, expand surveillance coverage, enable faster emergency responses, and ensure that every Nigerian lives in a country where peace and prosperity are not aspirations, but realities.
May the souls of the departed rest in peace. And may strength, healing, and hope return to the hearts and homes of all those affected.
Galaxy Backbone remains aligned with the vision of a secure, digitally connected, and inclusive Nigeria, where every citizen has the freedom to live, work, and dream in peace.
MultiChoice Nigeria Slashes Decoder Price by 50 Percent, Offers Free Upgrades
SEC Advocates for Advanced Financial Inclusion by 2030
NFIU Credits AML/CFT Reforms behind Nigeria’s Nears Exit from FATF Greylist
Keystone Bank, Enterprise Devt Centre Sign MoU To Empower SMEs ln Nigeria
AfCFTA Positions Africa to Tap into $712bn Digital Trade Market by 2035
Telecom2 days agoLebara, New Operator Enters Nigerian Telecom Arena, Sells Minutes, Not Airtime
E-Business2 days agoOver 7m Streaming Accounts’ Credentials were Leaked in 2024 – Report
General News1 day agoOpenAI Unveils New AI Agent for Software Developers
E-Financial2 days agoFidelity Bank Uplifts Old People’s Home with Essential Items Donation
E-Financial2 days agoS&P Global Ratings Downgrades Ecobank Nigeria’s Credit Rating to CCC-, Outlook Negative
Telecom2 days agoPIN Pushes for Equitable Digital Governance at World Internet Forum
Telecom1 day ago15 African Startups Using AI Selected for Google Accelerator Cohort 9
E-Financial2 days agoEFCC Drags Cititrust to Court over Unreported ₦200mTransfers