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Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 2)

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By Austin Okere

I will attempt to share the justification for this projection from the insights expressed by experts at various fora, and my own informed postulations.

Depending on which expert you talk to, and the perceived direction of the Chinese economy, you get three different views; a school of thought holds that the price of oil may be far from the top but closer to the bottom, while others believe that oil price will bottom out at about $20 per barrel. Yet another group holds that Oil price has reached equilibrium and will oscillate between $40 and $45 per barrel.

The optimists believe that oil price will recover to between $70 and $80 per barrel towards the end of the year, and remain within that band, as a sustainable balance between demand and supply is reached.

According to the 2015 OPEC annual statistics bulletin, world crude production in 2014 was 73.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) while demand was 91.3mbpd.

With the significant scale back in shale production arising from the steep price drop from late 2014 to levels that make shale production unviable, it will be safe to assume that production has dropped considerably while demand has more or less remained steady.

The major issue for me is the question of the so called glut. If there is indeed a glut, what is the accurate size of the glut and therefore, how long will it take for supply and demand to balance out.

I listened to an expert at a recent forum argue very eloquently against the widely touted 850 million barrel excess crude inventory.

Based on the data he and his firm have meticulously collected, he believes that the excess supply cannot be more than a quarter of the touted figure.

This means that the glut is overstated by 600 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it will be, adding only 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); only a fifth of their forecast of 1mbpd.

The IEA also believes that non-OPEC output will fall by 750,000 bpd in 2016, while US production alone will decline by 530,000 bpd this year.

The other possible disrupter to oil is the incentive to explore alternative forms of energy such as renewables, majorly solar and wind, in response to the impending carbon tax fuelled by fears of global warming and pollution.

According to Amy Jaffe and Jeroen van der Veer, leading experts on global energy policy, factors such as technological advancements, the falling price of batteries that power electric vehicles, and a post-COP21 (UN Climate change conference in Paris in 2015) push for cleaner energy could drive oil use below 80 million barrels a day by 2040.

These threats to oil do not seem practical on a meaningful scale in the near to medium term.

The example in Germany seems to buttress the fact that renewables may not make sense in Europe and other cold climes, and that they can only be achieved with very steep and unsustainable subsidies.

It is reported that Germany, the poster boy for renewables has so far invested about $500b on wind and solar energy. And yet renewables account for only 3.5% of global energy use, while oil and gas accounts for as much as 60% (this excludes shale, peat and coal, which account for 10%).

Electricity accounts for 18%, while biofuels and waste account for the balance 12%. In simple terms, the eight major oil companies, with a cumulative valuation of $1.4trillion generate as much as 20 million barrels per day versus the $2trillion invested so far to generate the equivalent of 7million barrels of oil per day in renewable energy. How sustainable is this huge subsidy?

For the switch to electric cars to happen, we would need to replace refineries producing petrol with power plants that will produce the additional electricity required to charge the electric cars. How quickly can this switch happen, even if it were practical?

My theory on the oil narrative is as follows: Saudi Arabia being the biggest reserve holder wanted to drive the shale producers, whom they saw as ‘squatters’ out of the market.

They opened their taps to drive prices down, knowing that shale needed an oil price of above $40 to produce at break even.

The high oil prices were driving cheap capital into shale and improving technology and yielding high returns and thus attracting more capital and repeating the cycle, thereby iteratively making shale a bigger threat.

I believe that the Saudi plan was hijacked by the Oil traders, who thrive on price arbitrage fuelled by uncertainty.

They rode on the back of increased Saudi production to shout ‘oil glut’! They increased the FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) with news of huge inventories coming on stream following the lifting of sanctions against Iran, but the general view is that Iran’s oil was already finding its way into the market through the back door, resulting in an insignificant net increase in supply.

It then became a self-fulfilling prophesy which snowballed, with the producers pumping recklessly to maintain market share and preserve earnings, which drove prices further down, exacerbating a bad situation.

I believe that the oil traders and bankers are trying to make up for a lost bet on the back of overenthusiastic exposure to the oil market. This is captured by the screaming headline in the Financial Times of March 22, 2016 ‘$150b losses on energy company bonds spur default fears’.

 The article further states that the total debt among oil and gas companies including loans almost tripled from $1.1trillion in 2006 to $3 trillion in 2014 quoting the Bank for International Settlements.

Twenty of Europe’s biggest banks have energy loans totalling $200b, enough to wipe out a quarter of their common equity, while twenty of the leading US banks have loans totalling $115b or 11% of their equity.

With the desperation arising from a risky bet gone awry, one does not need to dig too deep to glean a motivation to drive prices down, buy on the cheap and subsequently sell on the high to cover the huge debts.

I believe that in the end, the market will wave its magic wand, and supply and demand will correct themselves and reach equilibrium with price. You cannot hide a pregnancy for too long.

It is not at all surprising that the heads of the world’s largest oil trading houses, six of which sell enough oil to meet almost a fifth of global demand were unanimous in calling for an end to the two year price slump at a Financial Times conference in Lausanne.

What should be more important to all of us, beyond these theories is whether Nigeria will finally learn from her past mistakes and institute a mechanism for saving when oil prices rebound, as I believe they eventually will. And what if the optimists are wrong, and prices do not rise. We would have lost nothing.

We would have learnt to diversify away enough from oil to live comfortably within the current price. If on the other hand the optimists are right, then we will save the equivalent of $36.5b per year (i.e. 2.5mbpd X extra $40per barrel X 365 days).

In any case we would have nothing to lose by preparing and having to wait a while longer than anticipated. Success only happens when opportunity meets preparation.

 

Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.


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FRC, ICPC Seal Anti-corruption Alliance

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The Fiscal Responsibility Commission (FRC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to enhance institutional synergy and accountability in public finance management.

The partnership is also to deepen transparency and strengthen the fight against corruption in Nigeria.

The Executive Chairman of the FRC, Mr. Victor Muruako, and the Executive Chairman of the ICPC, Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, expressed profound satisfaction over the partnership, describing the signing as timely and symbolic, coming on a day dedicated globally to integrity, transparency, and the fight against corruption.

Speaking at the ceremony, both chairmen reaffirmed their agency’s shared commitment to prudent management of Nigeria’s resources, fiscal discipline, and the coordinated strategies to confront corruption and financial mismanagement.

Under the MoU, both agencies will collaborate extensively in capacity building, joint investigations, information sharing, asset recovery, and enforcement operations.

The ICPC, through its Anti-Corruption Academy of Nigeria (ACAN), will provide specialised training to FRC staff in forensic investigations, financial crime detection, digital evidence recovery, and prosecution strategies. In turn, both agencies will exchange resource persons for workshops and public enlightenment programmes.

The agreement further empowers both institutions to conduct joint investigations and coordinated operations where violations cut across the mandates of both the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007 and the ICPC Act, 2000. It also establishes a framework for mutual assistance in tracing, freezing, confiscating, and recovering stolen public funds.

On information sharing, the MoU guarantees the confidential exchange of intelligence, financial records, and technical data, while upholding strict ethical standards and full compliance with all applicable laws.

According to the parties, the collaboration will significantly enhance Nigeria’s anti-corruption architecture by eliminating institutional silos and strengthening enforcement outcomes.

The Memorandum of Understanding, which can be terminated with a 30-day notice by either party, marks a renewed and expanded phase of cooperation between the two key integrity institutions.

The signing ceremony concluded with both chairmen reaffirming their resolve to work tirelessly to promote accountability, transparency, and sustainable national development in line with the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and existing anti-corruption laws.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the FRC, Victor Muruako, has commended the ICPC Chairman, Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, and his team for sustaining the Commission’s legacy as one of Nigeria’s frontline anti-corruption institutions. Muruako particularly highlighted the signing of the MoU between the two agencies, describing it as a major step toward strengthening inter-agency collaboration in tackling corruption at all levels of government.

According to him, both agencies have, in recent months, intensified joint efforts to enhance accountability and prevent corruption at the local government level. These efforts, he noted, focus on improved budget preparation, prudent management of public funds, and the modernisation of tax, financial and asset administration systems.

He emphasised that where acts of corruption are detected, the law must take its full course to deter future offenders.


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Debt Rises in AI Data Centre Boom

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As AI fever has propelled global stocks to record highs, the data centres needed to power the technology are increasingly being financed with debt, adding to concerns about the risks.

A UBS report last month said AI data centre and project financing deals surged to $125 billion so far this year, from $15 billion in the same period in 2024, with more supply from the sector expected to be pivotal for credit markets in 2026.

“Public and private credit seems to have become a major source of funding for AI investments, and its rapid growth raised some concerns,” said Anton Dombrovskiy, fixed income portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price.

“Although up until now an increase in supply has been met with relatively healthy demand, this is the area to watch especially taking into account large financing needs estimates,” Dombrovskiy added.

The Bank of England warned last week that the growing role of debt in the AI infrastructure boom could heighten potential financial stability risks if valuations correct.

Christopher Kramer, portfolio manager and senior trader on Investment Grade Credit team at Neuberger told Reuters that the market has seen a structural shift as the largest technology companies finance their AI infrastructure ambitions.

“They really haven’t been focal points in our market from a debt issuance standpoint, and that’s obviously shifting really dramatically … anytime you have that, it creates a lot of opportunity,” he said on November 28.

“We’re excited just from the standpoint that the market’s changing. You’re going to have a different dynamic, it creates an opportunity to take risks and create value for our investors,” Kramer added.


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FG to Use Digital Economy Initiatives to Curb Corruption Among Youth

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Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, has said that Federal Government is intensifying its use of digital-economy initiatives to curb corruption among young Nigerians.

Speaking at the commemoration of the 2025 International Anti-Corruption Day held on Tuesday in Abuja, the AGF said the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has deliberately positioned technology, innovation training, and digital-skills development at the heart of its anti-corruption strategy for young people.

The event, organized by Technical Unit on Governance and Anti-Corruption Reforms (TUGAR) domiciled at the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) had the theme: “Uniting with Youth Against Corruption: Shaping Tomorrow’s Integrity”.

Fagbemi, who delivered the keynote address, said the government believes that empowered, skilled and economically engaged youths are less vulnerable to corrupt influences.

According to him, programmes such as the 3 Million Technical Talents Programme (3MTT) and the recently launched Nigerian Youth Academy (NiYA) are already equipping millions of young Nigerians with ICT and digital-innovation skills, reducing their dependence on patronage systems that fuel corrupt practices.

“A hopeful youth is harder to corrupt; an engaged youth is harder to mislead; and an empowered youth is a powerful force for national transformation,” Fagbemi said.

He explained that by investing in digital literacy, tech entrepreneurship and innovation-driven training, the Tinubu administration aims to create a generation of young Nigerians who are globally competitive and resistant to corruption.

Beyond digital skills, the AGF pointed at several government efforts to expand educational access through the Nigeria Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), and support youth entrepreneurship via the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund (NYIF) and the iDICE programme, providing funding, training and mentorship for young innovators in tech, entertainment, agriculture and design.

Fagbemi added that the inclusion of young people in governance, through appointments and expanded civic-engagement platforms, was another strategic tool to strengthen integrity and transparency in public life.

He urged stakeholders to deepen efforts to integrate anti-corruption values into school curricula, establish integrity clubs, mentor young leaders, and leverage ICT tools to promote transparency, whistleblowing and public accountability.

Earlier, the Head of TUGAR, Mrs Jane Onwumere said the gathering was especially meaningful because it reflected a shared truth: that tomorrow’s integrity rests significantly in the hands of the youth.

“The theme therefore, is not just a slogan but a call to action and a reminder that young people are not only beneficiaries of good governance, they are co-architects of it.

“Corruption has affected lives and the economy negatively in many ways. One of such is the “japa wave” which has seen young Nigerians leave the country in droves in search of greener pastures. This syndrome has drained the country of resources and human capital. It has in many situations split the family unit, a critical foundation for anti-corruption efforts”, Onwumere, added.

In his speech, the Executive Secretary, NEITI, Hon. Musa Sarkin Adar expressed the agency’s commitment to empowering young Nigerians not only as advocates for accountability but also as active partners in shaping the future of integrity in the extractive industries and beyond.

“At NEITI, we recognize that corruption undermines opportunities for growth, distorts resource governance, and deepens inequality. We also know that a united, informed, and courageous generation can dismantle these barriers.

“This is why NEITI will continue to expand civic education, strengthen our reporting mechanisms, support youth-led innovation, and create more platforms for constructive engagement with young professionals, students, and entrepreneurs”, he added.

 


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