News
Looking Beyond Oil Price Collapse Towards Post Recovery Savings (Part 2)
By Austin Okere
I will attempt to share the justification for this projection from the insights expressed by experts at various fora, and my own informed postulations.
Depending on which expert you talk to, and the perceived direction of the Chinese economy, you get three different views; a school of thought holds that the price of oil may be far from the top but closer to the bottom, while others believe that oil price will bottom out at about $20 per barrel. Yet another group holds that Oil price has reached equilibrium and will oscillate between $40 and $45 per barrel.
The optimists believe that oil price will recover to between $70 and $80 per barrel towards the end of the year, and remain within that band, as a sustainable balance between demand and supply is reached.
According to the 2015 OPEC annual statistics bulletin, world crude production in 2014 was 73.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) while demand was 91.3mbpd.
With the significant scale back in shale production arising from the steep price drop from late 2014 to levels that make shale production unviable, it will be safe to assume that production has dropped considerably while demand has more or less remained steady.
The major issue for me is the question of the so called glut. If there is indeed a glut, what is the accurate size of the glut and therefore, how long will it take for supply and demand to balance out.
I listened to an expert at a recent forum argue very eloquently against the widely touted 850 million barrel excess crude inventory.
Based on the data he and his firm have meticulously collected, he believes that the excess supply cannot be more than a quarter of the touted figure.
This means that the glut is overstated by 600 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it will be, adding only 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February 2016 according to the International Energy Agency (IEA); only a fifth of their forecast of 1mbpd.
The IEA also believes that non-OPEC output will fall by 750,000 bpd in 2016, while US production alone will decline by 530,000 bpd this year.
The other possible disrupter to oil is the incentive to explore alternative forms of energy such as renewables, majorly solar and wind, in response to the impending carbon tax fuelled by fears of global warming and pollution.
According to Amy Jaffe and Jeroen van der Veer, leading experts on global energy policy, factors such as technological advancements, the falling price of batteries that power electric vehicles, and a post-COP21 (UN Climate change conference in Paris in 2015) push for cleaner energy could drive oil use below 80 million barrels a day by 2040.
These threats to oil do not seem practical on a meaningful scale in the near to medium term.
The example in Germany seems to buttress the fact that renewables may not make sense in Europe and other cold climes, and that they can only be achieved with very steep and unsustainable subsidies.
It is reported that Germany, the poster boy for renewables has so far invested about $500b on wind and solar energy. And yet renewables account for only 3.5% of global energy use, while oil and gas accounts for as much as 60% (this excludes shale, peat and coal, which account for 10%).
Electricity accounts for 18%, while biofuels and waste account for the balance 12%. In simple terms, the eight major oil companies, with a cumulative valuation of $1.4trillion generate as much as 20 million barrels per day versus the $2trillion invested so far to generate the equivalent of 7million barrels of oil per day in renewable energy. How sustainable is this huge subsidy?
For the switch to electric cars to happen, we would need to replace refineries producing petrol with power plants that will produce the additional electricity required to charge the electric cars. How quickly can this switch happen, even if it were practical?
My theory on the oil narrative is as follows: Saudi Arabia being the biggest reserve holder wanted to drive the shale producers, whom they saw as ‘squatters’ out of the market.
They opened their taps to drive prices down, knowing that shale needed an oil price of above $40 to produce at break even.
The high oil prices were driving cheap capital into shale and improving technology and yielding high returns and thus attracting more capital and repeating the cycle, thereby iteratively making shale a bigger threat.
I believe that the Saudi plan was hijacked by the Oil traders, who thrive on price arbitrage fuelled by uncertainty.
They rode on the back of increased Saudi production to shout ‘oil glut’! They increased the FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) with news of huge inventories coming on stream following the lifting of sanctions against Iran, but the general view is that Iran’s oil was already finding its way into the market through the back door, resulting in an insignificant net increase in supply.
It then became a self-fulfilling prophesy which snowballed, with the producers pumping recklessly to maintain market share and preserve earnings, which drove prices further down, exacerbating a bad situation.
I believe that the oil traders and bankers are trying to make up for a lost bet on the back of overenthusiastic exposure to the oil market. This is captured by the screaming headline in the Financial Times of March 22, 2016 ‘$150b losses on energy company bonds spur default fears’.
The article further states that the total debt among oil and gas companies including loans almost tripled from $1.1trillion in 2006 to $3 trillion in 2014 quoting the Bank for International Settlements.
Twenty of Europe’s biggest banks have energy loans totalling $200b, enough to wipe out a quarter of their common equity, while twenty of the leading US banks have loans totalling $115b or 11% of their equity.
With the desperation arising from a risky bet gone awry, one does not need to dig too deep to glean a motivation to drive prices down, buy on the cheap and subsequently sell on the high to cover the huge debts.
I believe that in the end, the market will wave its magic wand, and supply and demand will correct themselves and reach equilibrium with price. You cannot hide a pregnancy for too long.
It is not at all surprising that the heads of the world’s largest oil trading houses, six of which sell enough oil to meet almost a fifth of global demand were unanimous in calling for an end to the two year price slump at a Financial Times conference in Lausanne.
What should be more important to all of us, beyond these theories is whether Nigeria will finally learn from her past mistakes and institute a mechanism for saving when oil prices rebound, as I believe they eventually will. And what if the optimists are wrong, and prices do not rise. We would have lost nothing.
We would have learnt to diversify away enough from oil to live comfortably within the current price. If on the other hand the optimists are right, then we will save the equivalent of $36.5b per year (i.e. 2.5mbpd X extra $40per barrel X 365 days).
In any case we would have nothing to lose by preparing and having to wait a while longer than anticipated. Success only happens when opportunity meets preparation.
Austin Okere is the Founder CWG Plc and Entrepreneur in Residence, Columbia Business School, New York. He also serves on the World Economic Forum Business Council on Innovation and Intrapreneurship.
In a striking moment of global recognition for African talent in artificial intelligence, Shenzhen-based Nigerian technologist, Francis Okafor has emerged as the second-place winner at the 2026 Tencent OpenClaw Hackathon, a fiercely contested competition hosted by Chinese tech giant Tencent.
The achievement places the Nigerian engineer among the top innovators in one of the world’s most competitive technology hubs, Shenzhen, often described as China’s Silicon Valley.
Okafor’s journey to the podium was anything but scripted. Walking into Tencent’s facility on the day of the contest, he found a room already buzzing with elite programmers deep in preparation.
“Laptops open. Heads down. Some people setting up their system before the challenges even dropped,” he recalled, contrasting the scene with his own uncertainty at that moment. “And then there is me — a Nigerian looking around like, okay Francis, what exactly are you doing here?”
Rather than confidence, his first reaction was raw nerves. “I won’t lie, I had goose bumps. Not the inspirational kind,” he admitted, describing a quiet internal debate about whether he had wandered into territory far beyond his league. Yet that hesitation quickly gave way to experimentation, a hallmark of the hackathon spirit.
Earlier that same week, Tencent had rolled out OpenClaw integration into WeChat (known domestically as Weixin), exposing its massive user base to AI agent capabilities.
Okafor, a senior technology lead, artificial intelligence advocate, and global community organiser, had already been stress-testing the system and decided, on the spot, to build his entry around it. “I had been pushing it hard all week just to see what it could do… so when the challenges dropped I thought, you know what, let me use this thing as my weapon.”
That decision proved decisive. Competing against some of the most accomplished engineers in China’s hyper-competitive tech ecosystem, Okafor’s solution stood out for both ingenuity and execution. “It went far enough apparently,” he said with understated pride after securing second place.
Remarkably, he had entered without a grand plan. “I didn’t go in with a strategy. I went in for the thrill of it… Honestly I thought I would learn a few things and go home with a good story.” Instead, he left with a trophy, and a narrative that has resonated far beyond the competition hall.
Beyond personal triumph, Okafor emphasized the broader technological significance of the moment. Tencent released the WeChat OpenClaw plugin on the very morning of the event, effectively putting advanced AI agent tools into the hands of an estimated 1.4 billion users.
In his view, this signals a profound shift in how artificial intelligence will reach the public. The company, he observed, is “not just making AI accessible to developers… they are bridging it to everyone,” while using hackathons to identify innovators capable of pushing the technology forward, regardless of origin.
Okafor was acutely aware of his uniqueness in the room. “I was definitely the only African there and for sure stood out,” he noted. Yet what mattered was not nationality but capability. “Nobody cared about where I was from. They cared about what I built.”
His message to aspiring technologists, particularly those from underrepresented regions, is both simple and powerful: show up. “Enter things you think you have no business entering,” he urged. “The worst case is you learn something. The best case is you shock yourself.”
In an industry often defined by geography, capital, and institutional advantage, Okafor’s victory offers a compelling counter-narrative. Talent, preparation, and courage can still disrupt expectations, even in rooms that seem designed for someone else.
As he concluded in a line that has since captured widespread attention: Black excellence, he said, “doesn’t need a geography.”
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has urged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to deepen collaboration and provide faster operational support in Enugu State.
Zonal Director of the EFCC Enugu Zonal Directorate, Commander Daniel Isei, made the call during a courtesy visit to the CBN Branch Controller in Enugu, Mr Otutubuike Justice Agbaeze, on Tuesday.
The engagement forms part of ongoing efforts to boost inter-agency ties, enhance financial sector accountability, and fortify anti-money laundering initiatives nationwide.
Isei described the CBN as “our most critical partner in the fight against economic and financial crimes,” highlighting years of joint operations and the bank’s role in securing recovered assets.
“The CBN naturally stands out as one of our most critical partners… it serves as a secure repository for valuables recovered by the EFCC and it has greatly enhanced our operations,” he stated.
While commending past cooperation, Isei appealed for quicker responses to the EFCC’s frequent investigative requests from its Enugu office.
“We understand that these requests may be demanding, but timely responses are crucial, as time is of the essence in financial investigations. We therefore seek your continued indulgence in ensuring that our letters receive expeditious attention,” he added.
In response, Agbaeze reaffirmed CBN’s dedication to the partnership, pledging expert support and improved synergy “in the interest of financial system stability and national development.”
As smart devices with artificial intelligence (AI) tools, and always-on services become part of everyday life, the cybersecurity habits many people formed a few years ago may no longer be enough.
From AI-powered scams to social media trends that encourage users to upload personal details, the way people interact online is changing quickly. Ensuring that you stay secure now requires small, deliberate actions in your daily digital behaviour. Experts from Kaspersky, a global cybersecurity and digital privacy company, share the below advice to stay safe online.
- Be cautious with verification requests. Many scams now mimic legitimate verification processes, asking users to confirm accounts, update payment details, or approve login attempts. Because people are used to frequent security prompts, it is easy to respond automatically. Pause before sharing verification codes or personal information and independently verify requests through official websites or by contacting service providers directly.
- Cultivate healthy AI usage habits. AI agents, chatbots and multimedia-generating apps can be convenient and entertaining, but uploading high-resolution photos or personal information carries privacy implications. Facial images can function as biometric identifiers, and once shared with an online service, be it AI or a social network, control over how that data is stored or reused may be limited. Before using AI tools, review privacy policies, minimise the personal information they provide, and avoid uploading sensitive documents or confidential content.
- Do your homework on AI. For parents, the rise of AI assistants introduces another dimension. While AI tools can help in making education interactive and gamified, children may turn to AI tools for homework support or entertainment without fully understanding how their data is used or how to evaluate responses critically.
Open conversations about responsible AI use, privacy awareness, and the importance of not oversharing personal information can help children build safe digital habits from an early age.
- Audit your online subscriptions. Reducing digital exposure is another simple but often overlooked step. Over time, unused subscriptions, dormant accounts, and forgotten apps accumulate personal data and payment details. Regularly reviewing subscriptions, deleting unused accounts, and checking which apps have access to personal information can significantly reduce risks of this data being leaked.
- Secure your devices and home. Device longevity and smart home security also play an important role. Older devices that no longer receive security updates may contain unpatched vulnerabilities.
Ensure that smartphones, laptops, routers, and smart home devices are running the latest firmware and are protected with strong passwords and multi-factor authentication. Changing default passwords on connected devices and securing home Wi-Fi networks are essential steps in protecting both personal data and physical spaces.
As technology and AI becomes more integrated into daily life, security is less about dramatic measures and more about consistent, informed habits.
“Technology evolves quickly, and our online behaviour should keep pace,” says Brandon Muller, Technical Expert for the Middle East and Africa region at Kaspersky. “Take time to review privacy settings, app permissions, and connected third-party services, removing anything that is no longer needed. By being more deliberate about what we share, how we verify requests, and how we manage our devices, we can significantly reduce exposure to modern cyber risks while enjoying all the benefits of new technologies.”
Anti Graft Agencies Raise Alarm over Rising Crypto-Linked Financial Crimes
NITDA Takes Over National Digital Architecture System
NDIC Insures 99 Percent of Bank Customers
FG Shifting Focus to “Meaningful Connectivity” to Drive Inclusion – Minister
CBN Bars Chronic Loan Defaulters from Accessing Loans
Spotify’s Loud & Clear Report Reveals Over ₦60Bn Revenue for Nigerian Artists in 2025
Madonna University Taps Tech Guru Adote for Strategic Board Role
China Threatens to Shut Nigeria’s Satellite Over $11.44m Unpaid Debt
MTN Nigeria Posts Record N1.70 Trillion Pre‑Tax Profit, Declares N20 Dividend for 2025
Jumia Tech Week 2026 Begins with Tech Deals on Smartphones, Electronics, and Everyday Technology
General News2 days agoNCC to Curb SIM Fraud, Strengthen Digital Security with New Platform
Broadcasting2 days agoNBC Boss Urges Content Ceators to Participate in DSO
General News2 days agoKidnappers Now Use Banks to Collect Ransoms — Expert
E-Financial2 days agoCBN Says Bank Customers Won’t Lose Deposits because of Recapitalisation
E-Business2 days agoJury Finds Meta, Google Liable for Woman’s Social Media Addiction
E-Financial2 days agoBreaking…..Kuda Lays Off Many Employees in Broad Restructuring
News2 days agoFrancis Okafor Stuns China, Emerges Second-Place Winner @ Tencent OpenClaw Hackathon
Telecom2 days agoIFC Invests $45m to Green African Telecom Sites