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Naira Steady Ahead of FOMC Meeting, Oil Pushes Higher

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM,

The Nigerian Naira was basically flat on the forward markets, despite the Dollar depreciating on expectations that the Federal Reserve will be adopting a dovish stance this week.

Investors with an interest in the Naira will be closely monitoring the FOMC meeting this week, which has the potential to impact the emerging market currency. Buying sentiment towards the Naira is likely to jump if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance towards rates and expresses concerns over the US economy. 

The Naira also remains influenced by Oil prices, as a fair chunk of Nigeria’s export revenues come from Oil sales. Although rising Oil prices will be a welcome development for the Naira in the near-term, the currency’s outlook remains impacted by domestic conditions at home and geopolitical risk factors across the globe. The next major event risk for the Nigerian economy will be in Central Bank of Nigeria’s interest rate decision next Tuesday. Will the CBN drop hints of a possible rate cut some time in the future? This is a question on the minds of investors.

Brexit chaos deepens as Commons Speaker derails third vote on May’s deal

The British Pound fell yesterday afternoon after the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow essentially banned Theresa May’s Brexit deal from getting a third vote. Although prices later recovered, this once again highlights the tremendously fluid Brexit equation that markets have to contend with. Now, all eyes turn to the summit in Brussels on Thursday, where EU leaders will have their say on an extension to Brexit. It’s key to note that the extension has to be unanimously agreed upon by all 27 member nations before a no-deal Brexit can be safely removed from the table; should just one of the EU members reject reasons for the deadline extension, the Pound will most likely find itself exposed to significant downside risks.

With the prolonged moving nature and fluidity of the Brexit situation weighing heavily on sentiment, Sterling remains at risk of unwinding its year-to-date gains.  Still, the base case that markets are pricing in is one of a delayed Brexit, which may only happen in 2020. However, as we have learned in recent weeks more time may not wholly be a good thing, as it could also bring about extended periods of uncertainty and potentially more permutations to the final Brexit outcome. Barring any more surprises, expect the Pound to trade range-bound this week.

Commodity spotlight – WTI Oil

WTI Crude found comfort near its highest levels so far this year, after OPEC+ assured markets that its members will stick to the output cuts through the first half of 2019. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih says there remains a “significant glut” in global supplies which still needs to be drawn down before considering scaling back on production cuts, a move that’s supportive of Oil prices. OPEC+ producers need to demonstrate unified efforts in their attempts to rebalance the Oil markets and to have any chance of offsetting record US Shale production.

Between now and the OPEC meeting scheduled to take place in Vienna in June, markets will certainly be closely monitoring indicators on global supply and demand. With US shale production still robust as ever, oversupply fears are likely to linger in the background. However, sanctions on other Oil producers, namely Iran and Venezuela, may sooth such concerns. Meanwhile on the demand side, should global growth show more obvious signs of faltering, this may open up more downside for Oil.


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E-Financial

Quest Merchant Bank Strengthens Market Position as GCR Revises Outlook to Stable

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Quest Merchant Bank Limited has strengthened its market position following GCR Ratings’ affirmation of the Bank’s national scale issuer ratings of BBB(NG) and A3(NG), alongside an outlook revision to Stable from Rating Watch Negative.

The ratings action marks a significant milestone for Quest Merchant Bank following a transformative period for the institution, reflecting renewed confidence in the Bank’s financial strength, market positioning, liquidity profile and future growth trajectory.

According to GCR, the revised Stable Outlook is anchored on Quest Merchant Bank’s sound risk profile, improved capitalization and strong liquidity, alongside the successful transition of the Bank’s ownership structure following its acquisition by EverQuest LLP after the divestment by FBN Holdings.

The rating agency also highlighted the Bank’s strong presence within Nigeria’s merchant banking sector, where Quest Merchant Bank accounted for c.30% of the sub-sector’s total assets as of 31 December 2025, reinforcing its position as one of the country’s leading merchant banking institutions.

Further strengthening the Bank’s outlook was the successful completion of its ₦42.9 billion capital raise in March 2026 in line with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s revised minimum capital requirements. GCR noted that the capital injection is expected to further enhance the Bank’s capital adequacy position and support the next phase of business growth.

Quest Merchant Bank’s asset quality and liquidity profile also remained key strengths underpinning the ratings affirmation. The Bank maintained a NPL ratio of 3.2%, significantly below the broader banking industry average, while continuing to sustain strong liquidity metrics and resilient earnings performance.

GCR additionally recognised the strategic value of the Bank’s relationship with Custodian Investment Plc, noting the potential for expanded business opportunities, operational synergies and stronger profitability over time.

Commenting on the development, Afolabi Olorode, Ag. Managing Director/CEO, Quest Merchant Bank Limited, said: “This outlook revision is a strong signal of confidence in the future of Quest Merchant Bank and the progress we have made in strengthening our organization over the last year.

“Beyond the ratings action itself, this recognition reflects the resilience of our business, the quality of our balance sheet, and the confidence our clients, partners and stakeholders continue to place in the Bank.

“We have emerged from a defining transition period stronger, well-capitalized and better positioned to capture the opportunities ahead. We remain committed to delivering innovative solutions, creating long-term value and supporting economic growth across the sectors we serve.”

The Stable Outlook reflects GCR’s expectation that Quest Merchant Bank will continue to maintain sound asset quality, stable funding and strong liquidity metrics over the next 12 to 18 months, further reinforcing confidence in the Bank’s long-term strategic direction and operating fundamentals.


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History as NAICOM Licenses First Insurtech Firm under New Reform

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National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has granted an operational licence to CBI Partnering Insurtech Ltd, making it the first fully licensed partnering insurtech company in Nigeria.

History as NAICOM Licenses First Insurtech Firm under New Reform

An insurtech firm is a company that leverages modern technology—such as artificial intelligence, big data analytics, and the Internet of Things (IoT)—to make the insurance model more efficient.

This is line with Nigeria’s evolving insurance regulatory framework.

Insurtech also streamlines operations like underwriting, risk assessment, and claims management.

According NAICOM,  the development reflects its commitment to promoting innovation while maintaining market integrity and protecting policyholders.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, NAICOM said the licence was formally presented to the company during a handover ceremony where the commission reaffirmed its dedication to innovation, regulatory reforms and consumer protection within the insurance industry.

The commission noted that the approval comes amid efforts to modernise the sector through the implementation of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act 2025 and the introduction of specialised guidelines for insurance technology firms.

“The National Insurance Commission has formally granted an operational licence to CBI Partnering Insurtech Ltd, marking a significant milestone as the first fully licensed Partnering Insurtech company in Nigeria.

“This development underscores NAICOM’s regulatory leadership in fostering innovation within a structured and consumer-focused insurance ecosystem,” the statement read.

Speaking during the ceremony, Mr Ekerete Ola Gam-Ikon, deputy commissioner for Insurance, Finance and Administration,  said NAICOM was taking deliberate steps to align Nigeria’s insurance market with global standards.

According to the statement, Ola Gam-Ikon referenced the recent enactment of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act 2025, alongside the commission’s insurtech guidelines, as critical measures aimed at driving transformation within the industry.

He stated that encouraging innovation within a strong regulatory framework remains one of the commission’s strategic priorities.

The deputy commissioner stressed that the licence was issued subject to strict compliance with regulatory and ethical requirements, adding that innovation must be pursued alongside adequate consumer safeguards.

He further noted that Nigeria’s regulatory approach to insurance technology was attracting growing international recognition, particularly in the use of digital solutions to accelerate insurance penetration and sectoral growth.

Presenting the licence to the company, Ola Gam-Ikon was quoted in the statement as saying, “This milestone reflects the Commission’s commitment to responsibly nurturing innovation across the insurance value chain. We congratulate CBI Partnering Insurtech Ltd and expect full compliance with all applicable regulations.

“This licence carries an obligation to uphold the highest standards of governance and ethical conduct. NAICOM remains committed to supporting the growth of insurtech while protecting the interests of Nigerians.”

The commission explained that the licensing of CBI Partnering Insurtech Ltd demonstrates its readiness to support technology-driven business models capable of expanding access to insurance products while ensuring adherence to regulatory standards.

Responding to the licence approval, Suleiman Olalekan Ajani, managing director, CBI Partnering Insurtech Ltd, commended NAICOM for its regulatory guidance and the rigorous licensing process.

Ajani said the company would leverage the regulatory framework provided by the commission to deepen partnerships and deliver innovative insurance solutions focused on customer protection.

“We are honoured to receive this licence from NAICOM. The Commission’s robust regulatory framework provides the foundation for us to scale strategic partnerships and deliver technology-driven insurance solutions that prioritise consumer trust, transparency, and protection,” he said.

The licensing marks a significant step in NAICOM’s efforts to integrate innovation into Nigeria’s insurance ecosystem while ensuring that emerging technology-based operators remain subject to appropriate governance, compliance and consumer protection standards.


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Cardoso Rejects Return to CBN Intervention Era, Warns Against Old Policies

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Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has cautioned against renewed pressure on the apex bank to return to intervention programmes previously implemented by the institution.

Cardoso Rejects Return to CBN Intervention Era, Warns Against Old Policies

CBN

Cardoso said such programmes distorted the bank’s financial position and weakened the effectiveness of monetary policy.

He spoke on Thursday during the opening session of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) workshop in Abuja, where participants discussed strategies for strengthening monetary policy effectiveness and achieving sustainable macroeconomic stability.

According to a statement issued by the CBN on Sunday, Cardoso said the credibility gradually being restored to the apex bank over the past two and a half years was due largely to its return to orthodox monetary policy tools anchored on transparency, discipline and market confidence.

“The credibility we are now rebuilding and the progress achieved over the last two and a half years stem largely from returning to orthodox monetary policy anchored on transparency, policy discipline and market confidence,” he said.

The CBN governor noted that intervention programmes implemented in the past weakened policy transmission mechanisms and blurred the line between fiscal and monetary responsibilities.

He stressed that the apex bank would continue to prioritise transparency, evidence-based policy decisions and institutional reforms aimed at sustaining macroeconomic stability.

Cardoso said the bank had recorded progress in strengthening internal processes and improving policy coordination, adding that decision-making within the institution was increasingly guided by data analysis, technical evaluations and structured deliberations.

He also said the apex bank had improved communication with investors, businesses, financial markets and the public to make monetary policy direction more predictable and easier to understand.

According to him, the reforms are part of the bank’s medium-term transition towards a clearer inflation-targeting framework focused on price stability.

“These efforts are part of our medium-term transition towards a clearer inflation-targeting framework that places price stability at the centre of monetary policy,” he said.

Cardoso said the transition would require deeper institutional reforms, stronger collaboration among economic institutions and sustained technical work.

Reflecting on the challenges inherited by the current management, he said the CBN faced serious institutional and policy difficulties at the beginning of the administration.

According to him, the bank’s autonomy had weakened, confidence in monetary policy had declined and there was excessive dependence on non-conventional monetary tools.

He described the foreign exchange market at the time as opaque and inefficient, while weak coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities reduced the effectiveness of economic policies.

“These structural issues contributed to rising inflation, exchange-rate instability and declining investor confidence,” he said.

Despite the challenges, Cardoso said reforms introduced by the current management had started yielding positive results.

He said the CBN had restored a more orthodox monetary policy framework under the current MPC structure, relying more on traditional policy tools and the Monetary Policy Rate to control inflation and manage economic expectations.

The governor added that improvements in liquidity management, policy communication and forward guidance had strengthened transparency and boosted investor confidence.

While acknowledging that inflation remained elevated, he said there were early signs of moderation.

Cardoso also noted that reforms in the foreign exchange market had improved price discovery and reduced volatility, while stronger policy coordination had enhanced Nigeria’s resilience to external shocks, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.


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