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Nigeria ends 2018 on a cautious note; 2019 elections in focus

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By Lukman Otunuga,

It has been another monumental year for the Nigerian economy which continued to display resilience against domestic and external headwinds.

 

The healthy combination of easing inflationary pressures, foreign exchange stability and rising commodity prices initially stabilized Nigeria’s macro fundamentals. With domestic conditions clearly improving and foreign investor appetite increasing, expectations were elevated over the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cutting interest rates to stimulate further growth. The outlook for Nigeria looked highly encouraging up until mid Q2 2018 when economic growth slowed for the first time since the end of the recession. The deceleration in growth acted as a critical wakeup call to speed up efforts in diversifying away from oil reliance.

 

However, sentiment was dented further by the repeated delay of the 2018 budget which was finally passed in June 2018. Although Nigeria managed to hold its ground during the first half of 2018, it must be kept in mind that the nation found itself vulnerable to external shocks – namely an appreciating Dollar and oil price volatility. An appreciating Dollar, global trade tensions and prospects of higher US interest rates punished many emerging markets in 2018 with Nigeria falling into the category. Although the Naira witnessed stability despite an appreciating Dollar, this came at a heavy price to the CBN in the form of falling external reserves.

 

Global trade tensions presented a significant risk to Nigeria, especially when considering how the United States and China remain its biggest trading partners. With a trade war threatening global economic growth and demand for commodities, this presented challenges to Nigeria which remained heavily depended on earnings from oil exports. While there was scope for the CBN to cut interest rates to boost growth, this window of opportunity was missed when inflationary pressures returned.

 

Focusing on macro fundamentals, the picture looks somewhat encouraging with GDP expected to rise 2% in 2018. Signs of Non-Oil sectors contributing to growth will be a welcome development that highlights how Nigeria remains on a quest to break away from oil reliance. With Nigeria’s economic resilience potentially stimulating investor risk appetite, the Nigerian Stock Exchange has the opportunity to rebound in 2019. Although manufacturing production decreased 1.7% in September, a rebound could be in the cards as increased government spending ahead of the presidential elections boosts economic growth.

 

In regards to CBN policy, falling oil prices are seen weighing on the Naira’s peg against the Dollar on the official exchange. This may complicate the CBN’s effort to defend the Naira on the parallel markets in 2019. While a weaker Dollar could limit capital outflows, falling oil prices are poised to shave government revenues.

 

Focusing on oil prices, the outlook remains tilted to the downside amid oversupply fears and concerns over weaker oil demand. With markets struggling to find signs of the oil market rebalancing following OPEC and Russia’s deal to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day and global growth fears fuelling concerns over falling demand, oil prices remain fundamentally bearish. Severely depressed oil prices have raised concerns over Nigeria’s ability to move forward with the 2019 budget which pegged oil prices at $60 per barrel. With falling oil prices eroding government revenues, Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account (ECA), which has already depleted by roughly 73% in three weeks, is seen falling further.

 

Although the short-term outlook paints a gloomy picture, as we enter the New Year there is still some light at the end of the tunnel. With diversification in motion, government spending expected to increase and infrastructure developments in the pipeline, the longer-term outlook remains bright.


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General News

NRS Extends Saturday Tax Office Operations Nationwide Ahead of Rev360 Rollout

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The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has announced the extension of weekend tax office operations across the country as part of preparations for the rollout of the Rev360 Phase I Tax Administration System.

In a public notice issued in Abuja on May 7, the Service stated that all Emerging, Medium, Large, and Government Business Offices nationwide will now open on Saturdays from May 8 to June 27, 2026.

According to the notice, the offices will operate between 10:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m.

The NRS explained that the initiative is aimed at providing additional taxpayer support and improving service delivery during the implementation of the new tax administration platform for Medium and Emerging Taxpayer segments.

The Service noted that the extended Saturday operations are designed to assist taxpayers requiring guidance with the new system, facilitate seamless compliance during the June peak Companies Income Tax filing period, and improve access to tax services outside regular weekday hours.

It encouraged taxpayers to take advantage of the initiative to resolve tax-related matters, seek necessary guidance, and ensure timely compliance with their tax obligations.

“The NRS remains dedicated to delivering efficient, transparent, and taxpayer-focused services,” the statement read.

The notice was signed by Zacch Adedeji, PhD, Executive Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service. “You say Transformation, We say Rev360.”


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NCS, Gowon University Partner on Research, Development

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The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) and the Yakubu Gowon University have moved to formalise a strategic alliance aimed at advancing national security research, border management studies, and student welfare.

Comptroller General of Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, made this known during a visit by the University’s Vice Chancellor Professor Hakeem Fawehinmi, to the headquarters of the agency yesterday in Abuja.

Adeniyi noted that the collaboration marks a significant step in bridging the gap between paramilitary operations and academic research. “I have a long institutional history with this university,” CGC Adeniyi remarked.

He noting that previous attempts to sign a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) were interrupted by leadership transitions and that the Service is now committed to a phased implementation of support, focusing on projects with the highest impact on the learning environment.

Adeniyi said “For us, beyond legacy, what matters most is impact. We understand the realities facing Nigerian universities, from transportation challenges to infrastructure gaps.

“Our interest is to support initiatives that will create a conducive learning environment and positively impact students.”

He also stressed the importance of the university in relation to its status of the nation’s capital u University. He pledged to support the institution in meeting the demands of its 40,000-strong student population.

Responding, Professor Fawehinmi highlighted the university’s Centre for Defence and Migration Studies as a critical hub for the partnership.

He suggested that the centre could provide the NCS with specialised research into national security and executive training for officers.

“Support in areas such as mass transit buses, ICT infrastructure, research facilities, and professional collaboration will significantly strengthen our capacity,” the Vice Chancellor noted, adding that as the only conventional public university in the Federal Capital Territory, the institution carries enormous responsibilities.


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CRMI Warns of Risks, Sees Gains in UAE Exit from OPEC

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Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has highlighted potential benefits for Nigeria such as increased production flexibility, expanded market share, and improved revenue prospects following the United Arab Emirates’ decision to exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

CRMI Warns of Risks, Sees Gains in UAE Exit from OPEC

However, the Institute cautioned that these opportunities come with significant risks, including exposure to price volatility, reduced protection from coordinated supply management, intensified competition, and mounting fiscal pressures.

In a statement signed by Victor Olannye, registrar/chief executive officer, described the development as a major shift in global oil governance, with far-reaching implications for market stability and international energy dynamics.

Olannye noted that the move could trigger increased oil price volatility, heightened geopolitical tensions, and disruptions across global energy supply chains.

He urged corporate organisations, public institutions, financial bodies, and risk professionals to reassess their risk frameworks and strengthen resilience in response to evolving global realities.

He identified key risks to include a potential weakening of OPEC cohesion, oil price instability, geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, macroeconomic volatility, and the possibility of further exits by member states.

In line with its mandate to promote sound risk management and support national development, the Institute advised corporate organisations to implement robust risk management frameworks, adopt dynamic hedging strategies, and diversify their business portfolios.

Financial institutions and investors were also urged to reassess energy-related risks, strengthen portfolio diversification, and enhance risk disclosure practices.

CRMI further called on government and policymakers to reinforce fiscal buffers, accelerate economic diversification, and promote the transition to renewable energy.

Individual risk professionals were encouraged to upskill in geopolitical risk analysis and energy economics while developing expertise in scenario planning and predictive analytics.

The Institute emphasised the need for stakeholders to reposition proactively to navigate the evolving geo-economic landscape. It also projected possible scenarios, including fragmentation of global oil governance structures, increased reliance on market-driven pricing mechanisms, and an acceleration of global energy transition efforts.

 


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