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Nigeria inches closer to rate cut as outlook improves

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by Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

 

July was another encouraging trading month for the Nigerian economy, thanks to the stabilizing macroeconomic environment.

 

Annual inflation eased for the seventeenth consecutive month, while positive core economic metrics pointed to further signs of improving stability. Elevated global Oil prices have boosted government reviews and heavily supported foreign exchange markets. The overall outlook for Nigeria remains positive, especially when considering how the IMF has raised its growth forecast and the World Bank has indicated its willingness to provide the nation with technical support. According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economic growth rate in 2019 is projected to hit 2.3%, an improvement from the earlier 1.9% forecast thanks to an improved outlook on global Oil prices. As we head into the second trading month of Q2, there is likely to be an increasing focus on the Central Bank of Nigeria. With inflation pressures easing and economic conditions improving, the burning question among investors is when interest rates will be cut.

 

Consumer prices in the largest economy in Africa have cooled, from 11.61% in May to 11.23% MoM in June, its slowest pace in over two years. With inflationary pressures clearly becoming a theme of the past and gravitating closer to the CBN’s 6% – 9% target, logic states that a rate cut could be around the corner. However, external and domestic risks ranging from global trade tensions, prospects of higher US interest rates and political risk at home could sabotage the central banks to cut rates. A sense of uncertainty ahead of the 2019 elections coupled with the possibility of pre-election spending stimulating demand-pull inflation could complicate matters for the CBN.

 

Escalating global trade tensions remain a significant threat to global growth and stability which is bad news for Emerging Markets. With trade tensions escalating between Nigeria’s two biggest trading partners, the nation could be caught in the firing line like many other emerging market currencies. An appreciating Dollar and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy strategy may also play an important role in when or if the CBN takes action. Market expectations remain elevated over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates two more times this year, which may spark capital outflows from Emerging Markets. While a rate cut in Nigeria has the ability to boost economic growth by promoting spending and investment, it may widen the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and CBN.

 

What seemed like an easy decision for the CBN could turn difficult as the year progresses, especially when factoring in how the bullish sentiment towards the US economy has boosted speculation of a Fed rate hike. Will the CBN be willing to widen the US – Nigeria interest rate differential to pursue economic growth? Or will rates be left unchanged in a bid to prevent any unexpected downside shocks ahead of the general elections in 2019?

 

With Oil prices vulnerable to losses amid a possible return of oversupply concerns and Dollar strength remaining a dominant market theme, this toxic combination may present downside risks to Nigeria’s economic recovery. If second-quarter economic growth prints above market expectations and domestic inflation cools to single digits, the CBN could be given an opportunity to cut interest rates in Q4.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

FG Moves to End Double Taxation

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Federal government has started new efforts to improve tax collection in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and stop the problem of multiple taxation.

FG Moves to End Double Taxation

Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, minister of Finance and coordinating minister of the economy, disclosed this after a meeting with Nyesom Wike, minister, FCT, on Sunday.

According to Oyedele, the meeting focused on strengthening cooperation between the Ministry of Finance and the FCT Administration to support development projects in Abuja.

A major part of the discussion was how to improve tax administration in the territory.

He explained that the proposed tax harmonisation would create a more coordinated tax system, reduce the burden of multiple taxes on residents and businesses, and improve government revenue collection.

Oyedele said the plan is in line with the new tax reform law and is expected to help accelerate development across the FCT.

“The two ministers also reviewed plans to harmonise tax administration within the FCT,” he said.

He added that the initiative would eliminate multiple taxation while ensuring that government revenue is collected more efficiently.

The meeting also examined ways to strengthen collaboration on infrastructure projects across Abuja.

According to Oyedele, discussions centred on supporting the FCT’s ongoing infrastructure renewal programme.

He commended Wike’s approach to development, noting that the minister has focused on completing long-abandoned projects rather than starting new ones.

Oyedele said this strategy is helping to unlock economic and social benefits for residents by bringing stalled public projects back into use.

The proposed tax harmonisation is expected to make tax administration easier for individuals and businesses operating in the FCT while aligning Abuja’s revenue system with the provisions of the new tax reform law.

 


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Standard Bank Targets $15.4b SME Growth in Nigeria, Others with Trade Expansion Drive

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Standard Bank Group has identified Nigeria and four other markets as strategic growth hubs as it seeks to tap into $15.4 billion revenue opportunity driven by expanding small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and rising intra-African trade.

The bank disclosed the plan through Bill Blackie, the Chief Executive Officer of its Business and Commercial Banking (Standard Bank Group) division, who outlined the lender’s growth strategy in an interview with Bloomberg.

Under the strategy, Standard Bank will deepen its presence in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania while consolidating its dominance in South Africa. The five markets account for about 85 per cent of the estimated revenue opportunity available to the group’s BCB operations.

The expansion forms part of the lender’s broader ambition to accelerate earnings growth through 2028, leveraging increasing demand for banking services among businesses across the continent.

According to Blackie, the BCB division has recorded robust growth over the past five years, supported by rising business activity and greater demand for financial services across Africa.

He said the division doubled both headline earnings and return on capital between 2020 and 2025, with return on capital increasing from 19 per cent to 38 per cent during the period.

Earnings from operations across the continent also expanded at an average annual rate of 30 per cent.

Building on this performance, the bank is targeting compound annual growth of between eight and nine per cent through 2028, although Blackie expressed confidence that growth could reach double-digit levels as the strategy gains traction.

A key pillar of Standard Bank’s growth strategy is expanding support for SMEs and mid-sized businesses, which account for most enterprises across Africa.

The bank is particularly positioning itself to benefit from opportunities created by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to accelerate economic integration and cross-border commerce across the continent.

According to the International Trade Centre, nearly half of Africa’s small businesses export to other African countries, compared with only 14 per cent of larger firms, underscoring the critical role of SMEs in driving regional commerce.

The lender is also leveraging its extensive African footprint and strategic partnership with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to attract businesses seeking access to international markets, particularly China.


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E-Financial

NAICOM’s 18 Months Management Spill @ African Alliance Ends

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The National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) has handed over the management of African Alliance Insurance Plc to a newly constituted board nominated by shareholders.

‎The move ends a regulatory intervention that rescued the troubled insurer from the brink of collapse.

The development marks a major milestone in the insurance industry’s efforts to strengthen policyholders’ protection and restore confidence in the sector, following months of intensive regulatory oversight aimed at stabilising the company.

NAICOM had stepped into the affairs of African Alliance Insurance in October 2024 after the insurer was hit by severe liquidity constraints, mounting annuity payment arrears, unresolved claims obligations, regulatory infractions and reputational challenges that threatened its survival and eroded public trust.

‎Speaking at the handover ceremony, Commissioner for Insurance, Olusegun Omosehin, said the intervention had achieved its primary objectives of restoring operational stability, settling outstanding liabilities and protecting the interests of shareholders and annuitants.

Omosehin said a successful turnaround demonstrates the regulator’s commitment to safeguarding the insurance industry while ensuring that policyholders do not bear the consequences of corporate distress.

He also highlighted the significance of the newly enacted Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025, describing it as a game-changer for the sector.

The Commissioner observed that had the fund been in existence before the African Alliance’s crisis, it would have helped to cushion the impact on policyholders by facilitating the timely settlement of legitimate claims and annuity obligations.

He charged the new board to uphold high standards of corporate governance, transparency and regulatory compliance, while prioritising prompt claims settlement, sound solvency management and prudent business practices.

Industry stakeholders view the successful rehabilitation of African Alliance as a test case for regulatory intervention in Nigeria’s insurance sector, particularly at a time when operators are under pressure to strengthen their capital base, improve governance standards and rebuild public confidence.

During its tenure, the NAICOM appointed an interim board to restore liquidity through the recovery of trapped dividend funds and other inflows, settled a significant portion of annuity arrears and legacy claims, facilitated the transfer of the company’s annuity portfolio, completed forensic and actuarial reviews and addressed several regulatory and operational challenges. ‎


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