E-Financial
Nigeria Navigates Through Choppy Global Macroeconomic Waters

By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
The Nigerian economy continues to display resilience against heightened geopolitical risks in the form of trade uncertainty, Brexit, volatile oil prices and global growth fears.
Nigeria’s encouraging economic growth in the third quarter was one of the bright spots in the emerging market universe. GDP defied the slowing trend seen in other large economies to grow by 2.3 percent from upwardly revised 2.12 percent in the second quarter and 2.1 percent in the first quarter.

Lukman
What is helping to support the country’s growth in the face of growing risks to the global economy?
The Nigerian state’s drive and ongoing quest to diversify the economy has broadened its potential to earn from economic activity other than the commodities sector. It could be said that in this case, state policy is creating new opportunities for economic growth through diversification, slowly leading to less reliance on the Oil sector.
The same cannot be said for inflation, which jumped to 11.61 percent in October thanks to Benin border closures. Although the closure is intended to put an end to smuggling, it has also dampened trade and hiked inflation.
Still, on an annual basis, growth in the manufacturing sector recorded the fastest growth in 2019 by expanding 1.1% during the third quarter. Given how the value added by the manufacturing sector is roughly 8% of GDP, this should support the improving sentiment towards Nigeria. It is worth keeping in mind that growth in the manufacturing sector has escaped many other economies because of the pressure from trade disputes between the US and China.
Nigeria’s outlook still influenced by China
If Nigeria’s economy is displaying resilience against depressed Oil prices and trade uncertainty, some of the credit goes to the healthy relationship with China. Total trade with China was worth over $10 billion in 2018 and $3.1 billion in the third quarter of 2019.
The Naira/Yuan swap deal gets around the trade hindrance of a strong USD by allowing importers of Chinese goods to settle payments in Yuan instead of Dollars.
According to the half-year report by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), this has had the effect of increasing liquidity and reducing foreign exchange pressure. It’s also likely to have reduced exposure to the effects of the US-China trade dispute. In addition, the interest rate incentive for deposits in Yuan in Nigeria is not inconsiderable after the CBN left rates unchanged at 13.5 percent.
Having said that, China’s economy cooled to six percent in Q3 and this may start impacting Nigeria’s export sales if the slowdown deepens. Nigeria’s exposure to a slowdown in China may be significant when we remember that three-quarters of its 2017 mineral exports went to the Asian giant. And this is just one example.
A further slowdown in China could also impact Nigeria’s borrowing for much-needed infrastructural projects. The state has borrowed $6.5 billion from China since 2002 and relies on these funds for development. Indeed, around 80 percent of Nigeria’s funding comes from China. Other than that, Chinese companies’ investments in Nigeria hit $20 billion according to Ye Shuijin, the president of the China Chamber of Commerce in Nigeria.
While the Naira/Yuan swap deal may cushion the local economy from the global effects of the US-China trade dispute, a trade deal between the world’s largest economies would be good for Nigeria.
Looking ahead to 2020, other external factors influencing the outlook for Nigeria’s economy are Oil prices, interest rate developments from the Federal Reserve and Brexit. Domestically, I’m watching for more positive signs that Nigeria is diversifying, breaking away from Oil reliance to more sustainable sources of growth. Already, growth in the non-Oil sector rose to 1.8 percent annually, adding 1.6 percent in Q2 on an annual basis, reflecting quickening growth in the agriculture and industrial sectors.
E-Financial
CBN Dismisses Polaris Bank Liquidation Claim

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has debunked rumours suggesting that Polaris Bank is undergoing liquidation, assuring the public that the country’s banking system remains stable and secure.

Polaris Bank
The apex bank disclosed this in a post on X, where it shared a screenshot of a viral claim and flagged it as false.
It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation, are entirely false and do not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector
“The Central Bank of Nigeria has noticed reports, in certain media outlets, about a recommendation for the Federal Government to take over some CBN-supervised financial institutions,” said Hakama Sidi-Ali, apex bank’s acting Director, Corporate Communications, in a statement.
“To avoid any doubt, Nigerian banks are still safe and sound. The CBN advises the public to go about their daily lives without getting disturbed by reports regarding the health of Nigerian banks that have not come from the CBN.
“The CBN is fully equipped to carry out its statutory duty of ensuring the stability of Nigeria’s financial system. “We assure the general public and depositors that their funds are safe in Nigerian financial institutions. “Bank customers are therefore advised to proceed with their banking transactions as u
The clarification was after a viral post, claiming that Polaris Bank was facing liquidation for failing to meet the Bank’s recapitalisation requirements, and could soon lose its operating licence, with the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation set to take over the process.
It further alleged that founder of the Eleganza Group, Razaq Okoya, had made a bid to acquire and revive the bank, pending approval from regulators and shareholders.
Sharing a screenshot of the viral claim, however, the apex bank flagged it as “fake content.”
It clarified that the claims, suggesting Polaris Bank had failed to meet recapitalisation requirements and was set for liquidation did not reflect the current state of the Nigerian banking sector.
“This content is fake. Let the public be guided. The Nigerian Banking System is Safe and Secure,” the bank said.
On April 1, the CBN confirmed that 33 banks successfully met the revised minimum capital requirements under its recapitalisation programme, marking a significant milestone in strengthening the financial system.
E-Financial
AfDB Okays $200m for Nigeria’s Digital Backbone, Others

African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has approved a $200 million loan to Nigeria to support a landmark digital infrastructure initiative aimed at expanding broadband access, developing digital skills and driving large‑scale job creation.
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The financing will support the Digital Value Chain Infrastructure for Boosting Employment project, known as D‑VIBE or Project BRIDGE. The initiative seeks to deploy about 90 000 kilometres of new open‑access fibre optic cable across Nigeria, extending the national fibre backbone from roughly 30 000 km to about 120 000 km.
The expanded network will connect all 774 local government areas, including schools, hospitals, agro‑industrial zones, rural communities and commercial centres. It will also establish cross‑border digital links with Benin, Cameroon, Niger and Chad, strengthening regional integration.
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and West Africa’s largest economy, with the digital sector increasingly contributing to gross domestic product growth. The project is expected to close major connectivity gaps, raise productivity and unlock job opportunities for young people.
D‑VIBE is structured as a public‑private partnership through a special purpose vehicle, with public ownership capped at between 25% and 49% and private sector participation ranging from 51% to 75%.
This structure is intended to address high fibre rollout costs, including construction and right‑of‑way challenges.
The African Development Bank loan forms part of an $800 million sovereign financing package, alongside $500 million from the World Bank and $100 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Total project financing is estimated at $2 billion, including a $25.79 million European Union grant, a $2.6 million Multilateral Cooperation Centre for Development Finance preparation grant and at least $1.2 billion in private sector investment.
“Nigeria has the talent, the market and the ambition, but lacked the backbone infrastructure to connect opportunity with potential,” said Abdul Kamara, Director General of the African Development Bank Group’s Nigeria Office.
“This project will deliver high‑speed connectivity nationwide and equip young people to build digital careers.”
Beyond physical infrastructure, the project will support affordable devices, large‑scale digital skills training and digital platforms in priority sectors. It also includes cybersecurity, competition reforms and resilience measures, including greater use of renewable and hybrid power.
D‑VIBE is expected to help create up to 2.8 million jobs and raise broadband penetration from 45% to around 70% by 2030. The project aligns with Nigeria’s Vision 2050 and continental development priorities.
E-Financial
Nigeria’s Growth under Threat as Poverty Deepens, World Bank Warns

World Bank has warned that Nigeria faces a deepening early childhood development crisis in health, nutrition, and learning, threatening long-term productivity and economic growth amid persistent poverty.

World Bank
In its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” the bank noted moderate 2026 growth driven by services like ICT, financial services, and real estate, following 4.0 per cent GDP expansion in 2025. Inflation eased to double digits via tight policy, stable exchange rates, and better food supply, while reserves hit $45.5 billion gross by end-2025, covering 8.7 months of imports.
Fiscal deficit widened slightly as non-oil revenues rose to 8.5 per cent of GDP from improved tax administration, e-filing, and VAT e-invoicing, though wage growth lagged inflation, leaving real incomes strained and poverty unchanged.
The bank highlighted poor outcomes with 110 of 1,000 children dying before age five, 40 per cent stunted, and 52 per cent developmentally off-track at school entry—gaps three times wider in poor households and exceeding 40 points between rich and poor. It urged investment in the first 2,000 days for better education, earnings, health, and cohesion.
Regionally, Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast dipped to 4.1 per cent from 4.4 per cent due to Middle East conflict inflating fuel and fertiliser costs.
Finance Minister Wale Edun countered with recovery signs: falling inflation, rising non-oil revenues, declining debt-to-GDP, and stabilising naira via digital tracking, audits, and PPP shifts. Budget Director Tanimu Yakubu described reforms as correcting imbalances from subsidies and multiple rates, boosting FAAC revenues 40 per cent and reserves over $40 billion, with debt under 30 per cent of GDP.
NACCIMA President Jani Ibrahim called for data-driven strategies amid tax changes, inflation, and global tensions, eyeing AfCFTA, digital economy, and green investments for growth.
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