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Nigeria Navigates Through Choppy Global Macroeconomic Waters

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Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

The Nigerian economy continues to display resilience against heightened geopolitical risks in the form of trade uncertainty, Brexit, volatile oil prices and global growth fears.

Nigeria’s encouraging economic growth in the third quarter was one of the bright spots in the emerging market universe. GDP defied the slowing trend seen in other large economies to grow by 2.3 percent from upwardly revised 2.12 percent in the second quarter and 2.1 percent in the first quarter.

Nigeria Navigates Through Choppy

Lukman

What is helping to support the country’s growth in the face of growing risks to the global economy?

The Nigerian state’s drive and ongoing quest to diversify the economy has broadened its potential to earn from economic activity other than the commodities sector. It could be said that in this case, state policy is creating new opportunities for economic growth through diversification, slowly leading to less reliance on the Oil sector.

The same cannot be said for inflation, which jumped to 11.61 percent in October thanks to Benin border closures. Although the closure is intended to put an end to smuggling, it has also dampened trade and hiked inflation.

Still, on an annual basis, growth in the manufacturing sector recorded the fastest growth in 2019 by expanding 1.1% during the third quarter. Given how the value added by the manufacturing sector is roughly 8% of GDP, this should support the improving sentiment towards Nigeria. It is worth keeping in mind that growth in the manufacturing sector has escaped many other economies because of the pressure from trade disputes between the US and China.

 

Nigeria’s outlook still influenced by China

If Nigeria’s economy is displaying resilience against depressed Oil prices and trade uncertainty, some of the credit goes to the healthy relationship with China. Total trade with China was worth over $10 billion in 2018 and $3.1 billion in the third quarter of 2019.

The Naira/Yuan swap deal gets around the trade hindrance of a strong USD by allowing importers of Chinese goods to settle payments in Yuan instead of Dollars.

According to the half-year report by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), this has had the effect of increasing liquidity and reducing foreign exchange pressure. It’s also likely to have reduced exposure to the effects of the US-China trade dispute. In addition, the interest rate incentive for deposits in Yuan in Nigeria is not inconsiderable after the CBN left rates unchanged at 13.5 percent.

Having said that, China’s economy cooled to six percent in Q3 and this may start impacting Nigeria’s export sales if the slowdown deepens. Nigeria’s exposure to a slowdown in China may be significant when we remember that three-quarters of its 2017 mineral exports went to the Asian giant. And this is just one example.

A further slowdown in China could also impact Nigeria’s borrowing for much-needed infrastructural projects. The state has borrowed $6.5 billion from China since 2002 and relies on these funds for development. Indeed, around 80 percent of Nigeria’s funding comes from China. Other than that, Chinese companies’ investments in Nigeria hit $20 billion according to Ye Shuijin, the president of the China Chamber of Commerce in Nigeria.

While the Naira/Yuan swap deal may cushion the local economy from the global effects of the US-China trade dispute, a trade deal between the world’s largest economies would be good for Nigeria.

Looking ahead to 2020, other external factors influencing the outlook for Nigeria’s economy are Oil prices, interest rate developments from the Federal Reserve and Brexit. Domestically, I’m watching for more positive signs that Nigeria is diversifying, breaking away from Oil reliance to more sustainable sources of growth. Already, growth in the non-Oil sector rose to 1.8 percent annually, adding 1.6 percent in Q2 on an annual basis, reflecting quickening growth in the agriculture and industrial sectors.

 

 

 


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E-Financial

NDIC Says No Customer Loses Deposits in Failed Banks

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Nigeria Insurance Deposit Corporation (NDIC) has guaranteed customers of insured commercial banks prompt recovery of their deposits in the event of risk liability or liquidation.

NDIC Says No Customer Loses Deposits in Failed Banks

In addition, the corporation assured depositors of its statutory mandate, which includes supervising banks for risk assessment, ensuring ethical standards, and enhancing financial stability in the country.

Mrs Emily Osuji, executive director, Corporate Services, NDIC,  gave the assurance during a Stakeholders Town Hall Meeting on customer protection regarding bank charges and deposits in Kano.

Mrs Osuji posited that the NDIC has, in recent times, demonstrated a strong commitment to protecting the hard-earned savings of Nigerians and sustaining confidence in the banking system.

She cited the cases of defunct Heritage Bank Limited, Union Homes Plc and Aso Savings and Loans Plc, where depositors received their deposits promptly after meeting the relevant requirements.

The NDIC boss, however, reminded customers to link their Bank Verification Number (BVN) as a unique identifier to locate their alternate accounts, where their claims will be transferred.

The executive director affirmed that NDIC has expanded coverage to protect about 99 per cent of depositors in Nigeria, a deliberate policy aimed at protecting small savers, promoting financial inclusion, and enhancing trust in the banking sector.

She said, “The corporation fulfils its role through its core mandates of deposit guarantee, bank supervision, distress resolution and bank liquidation, all of which are geared towards protecting the hard-earned savings of Nigerians and sustaining confidence in the banking system.

“Our strapline, ‘Protecting your bank deposits!’, is more than mere words for us. We stand by this statement as a firm commitment to our mandate of ensuring that depositors have access to their hard-earned savings in the event of bank failure.

“This is a critical responsibility that we do not take lightly. This is especially so in times of financial uncertainty and distress, with the NDIC standing as a pillar of safety and reassurance for depositors, particularly the most vulnerable.”

Speaking on the concept of stakeholder engagement, Hawwau Gambo, head of Communication and Public Affairs,  said the corporation was compelled to provide clarity, build trust and strengthen depositor confidence amid misconceptions.

Gambo noted that the recent revocation of the operating licences of some banks by the Central Bank of Nigeria, (CBN) and the current public discourse on banks’ recapitalisation efforts have reinforced the need for sustained stakeholder engagement.

She reminded that sustained awareness is pertinent to dust, given already heightened public interest and featured public confidence in the financial institutions.

“NDIC’s last Public Awareness Survey highlighted the need to enhance interpersonal communication channels to improve public understanding of deposit insurance. It is against this backdrop that the Stakeholders’ Town Hall Meetings were conceived as a structured, interactive platform for dialogue, education and feedback,” Gambo noted.


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E-Financial

CBN Expresses Concern Over Foreign Investments in Nigeria Fintechs

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The Central Bank of Nigeria in its 2025 Fintech Policy Insight Report, has raised concern over Nigeria’s fintech sector heavily dependent on foreign investment, exposing it to swings in global markets.

The report said the sector has shown resilience despite global economic pressures, but warned that reliance on external capital leaves it vulnerable to market fluctuations.

It would be recalled that startups in the country raised $520m in equity funding in 2024, down from about $747m in 2019, when Nigeria captured roughly 37 per cent of all African startup investment.

This performance, amid significant global macroeconomic gyrations, underscores Nigeria’s position as a key hub for financial innovation. The sharp rise in interest rates in advanced economies during 2022 contributed to a slowdown in venture capital funding.

“These dynamics highlight the importance of developing domestic funding avenues, such as leveraging Nigeria’s capital markets, to reduce currency risk and sustain fintech growth,” the apex bank stated.

Olayemi Cardoso, CBN Governor, said Nigeria is undergoing a rapid and significant financial evolution. Over the past decade, the nation’s fintech landscape has grown from a handful of startups into one of Africa’s most vibrant innovation ecosystems.

“Even amid global economic headwinds, Nigerian fintech firms continued to attract investment and drive change. Today, with improved stability of our currency and domestic economy, it is clearer than ever that financial innovation can advance inclusion at scale,” the executive commented on the report.

In addition to funding, the central bank underscored Nigeria’s continued leadership in digital financial infrastructure. More than 25 per cent of all electronic transactions in Africa’s most populous nation are processed via real-time payment channels, with close to 11 billion transactions processed in 2024, up from five billion in 2022. The report described Nigeria’s instant payments platform, NIBSS NIP, as among the most mature and widely adopted globally.

The report also mentioned the need to strengthen system integrity and reputation, pointing to compliance reforms, anti-money laundering supervision, and consumer protection measures as key priorities for sustaining investor confidence.

By focusing on domestic funding, regulatory modernisation, and innovation infrastructure, the CBN aims to position Nigeria not only as a fintech front-runner but also as a rule-setter whose regulatory lessons are relevant to peer emerging and high-growth economies globally, the central bank said.

Stakeholders surveyed by the CBN also cited compliance costs as a significant challenge to innovation. According to the report, 87.5 per cent of respondents said that the cost of meeting regulatory and risk requirements significantly impacts their capacity to innovate, while delays in product approvals and regulatory timelines also remain major bottlenecks.

The report noted that 62.5 per cent of fintech firms plan to expand regionally, and there is strong support for regulatory pass-porting frameworks to enable compliant expansion into other African markets. However, the CBN warns that such cross-border growth requires a stable funding base and coordinated regulation.

 


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E-Financial

UBA’s Easy and Instant Account Opening Thrills Returnee

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After a few years abroad, I returned to Nigeria and faced a dilemma. Let me tell you all about it.

UBA's Easy and Instant Account Opening Thrills Returnee

UBA

A few days ago, I was dragging my luggage through Murtala Muhammed International Airport. Everything felt bright and beautiful. Not necessarily in aesthetics, but in the vibrant colours, sounds, and energy all around. After three intensive years in the UK, I was finally back home. Ready for the hustle and bustle of Lagos life, and yes, the comfort of my parents’ home.

The plan was simple. Settle down and get my life on track. I’d sorted the job, and I had my person. But then came my dilemma. Money!. This doesn’t mean I was short of it or had too much of it. The real issue is where to actually keep and manage it in this country with daily dramatic happenings. With just two weeks left before I resumed at my new workplace, I had no time for long queues, endless paperwork, or the classic “Nigeria bank stress.” So, I needed an account, and I needed it fast.

So I turned to my best friend, Google, and typed, “Instant account opening in Nigeria.”

In less than a second, I was redirected to the United Bank for Africa instant account opening portal. A few taps later, and I had a fully functional account. Just like that. I could receive my funds, transfer my funds, and start building my financial life here again.

In less than a second, I was redirected to the United Bank for Africa instant account opening portal. A few taps later, and I had a fully functional account. Just like that. I could receive my funds, transfer my funds, and start building my financial life here again. Talk about ease, and this beautiful experience truly exemplified that definition

I was genuinely amazed. It felt too easy, almost suspiciously easy. But it was real, I mean, really soft like they were just thinking all about me while developing this new feature.

If you’re like me and pressed for time, avoiding unnecessary stress, or just ready to sort your finances without the hassle, consider this your sign.

UBA’s instant account opening is a game-changer. No queues to cut into your precious time. Just you and your phone, minutes away from being banked.

Get started here: https://aop.ubagroup.com

Trust me, if I could do it between unpacking and settling in, you can do it too. Your future self will thank you.


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