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Nigeria Navigates Through Coronavirus Storm

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

As headwinds from the coronavirus pandemic storm lambaste the world economy, the outlook for Nigeria appears more cloudy for the second half of the year.

The next few months are critical for the country’s fragile economic recovery and the main question is whether Nigeria will sink or swim in the coronavirus storm.

On the positive side, the Federal Government announced the second four-week phase of lockdown easing, hopefully leading to some breathing room for the economy. However, the infection rate is still growing at over 25,500 confirmed cases and over 580 deaths.

Damage from the storm

Opinions differ on just how much water Nigeria’s economy is taking on as the cracks appear in its hull. The IMF expects the economy to contract by minus 5.4 percent, while the finance minister sees the contraction at minus 8.9 percent. The World Bank is more positive, putting the damage at minus 3.2 percent this year.

Is patching the leaks enough?

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cut interest rates and the government unleashed fiscal measures, raising another question – will this be enough to fix the leaks?

External and domestic risks range from shaky Oil prices, slowing global growth, US-China trade uncertainty and Nigeria’s heavy reliance on Oil revenues. Headwinds in the Oil industry may blow even harder given the recorded COVID-19 cases in some offshore sites.

The results so far bear out the volatile outlook. Total revenue from crude Oil and natural gas declined by 31 percent in March, likely knocking onto GDP growth for the first half.

These developments put the country’s $5.9 billion economic stimulus plan in the hot seat. The priority is certainly to jumpstart growth against the current odds. Monetary policy options are becoming thin on the ground, though, and it remains uncertain whether the CBN has enough room to cut interest rates from 12.5 percent given how inflation jumped for the ninth straight month to 12.4 percent in May.

The crux of the economy is consumption, which accounts for roughly 70 percent of GDP. It may be that the CBN will find other unconventional methods to boost consumption and steer Nigeria away from a recession.

At the time of writing, however, the difficulties are significant and risks to the economy remain high as the effects of the coronavirus pandemic prove to be immune to monetary policy. Whether we like it or not, COVID-19 will remain a major theme in the markets as Asia, Europe and the US report an increasing number of new cases.

Adding to the risks is the growing possibility of a new round of lockdowns as fears intensify over a second wave of coronavirus infections pressuring the world economy again. Another wave could have devastating consequences, putting quick recoveries beyond the capacity of central banks and governments and initiating years of slow progress.

If a second wave is avoided, the key question will be whether Nigeria has done enough to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and navigate around a rocky recession.

In my opinion, the situation remains unpredictable. A positive way forward could be through economic adaptation measures such as promoting local tourism, building up the technology sector, and tax incentives for consumers, retailers and similar sectors to encourage spending amid an already-loosened credit environment.

 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

NOVA Bank Opens Regional Office in Owerri

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NOVA Bank has opened its regional office in Owerri, Imo State, as part of its expansion drive across the South-East and South-South regions.

NOVA Bank Opens Regional Office In Owerri

At the inauguration ceremony, recently, Senator Hope Uzodinma, Imo State Governor, announced that the state government would provide land for the development of the bank’s permanent regional headquarters for the South-East and South-South in Owerri.

The event was attended by government officials, business leaders from the two regions, and members of the Nigerian diaspora.

Governor Uzodinma stated that the bank’s entry into Imo State aligned with the government’s efforts to promote economic growth through infrastructure development, improved road networks, and market-driven initiatives.

He described NOVA Bank as an early investor in the region’s emerging economic opportunities.

He also commended the bank’s approach of combining physical banking infrastructure with digital platforms, noting that it aligns with the state’s emphasis on technology-driven governance and commerce.

“In recognition of NOVA Bank’s vision and long-term commitment to the region, the Imo State Government will allocate a suitable parcel of land in a prime location for the development of its permanent South-East/South-South Regional Headquarters,” the governor said.

Speaking at the event, Phillips Oduoza, chairman, NOVA Bank, thanked the Imo State Government and residents for their support, describing the Owerri office as a key part of the bank’s national expansion strategy.

“The opening of our regional office in Owerri marks a strategic milestone in NOVA Bank’s growth and underscores our commitment to the South-East and South-South,” Oduoza said, adding that the city would serve as a hub for the bank’s operations in the region.

He said the bank’s expansion is driven by a focus on sustainable growth, innovation and strong financial fundamentals, noting that NOVA Bank is investing in digital infrastructure and financial solutions to support small and medium-sized enterprises, corporates, public-sector institutions, high-net-worth individuals and the mass market.

According to him, the planned regional headquarters is expected to support job creation, improve access to credit, promote enterprise growth and deepen financial inclusion across the two regions.

Oduoza said the bank remains focused on building a resilient institution that delivers value to customers, partners and shareholders.

The opening of the Owerri regional office marks NOVA Bank’s latest step in expanding its presence in southern Nigeria.


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SEC Says CMOs Must Renew Registration in January

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced that Capital Market Operators (CMO’s) are to renew their registration from January 1 to 31, 2026.

SEC Says CMOs Must Renew Registration in January

In a bid to make the process seamless, the Commission says it will commence electronic receipt and processing of applications for registration and updates of registration information in the first quarter of 2026.

Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director general of the SEC,  stated this during an interview in Abuja.

According to Agama, “These initiatives reflect our commitment to leveraging technology for faster, more transparent, and efficient regulatory processes. The Commission is taking deliberate steps to make regulatory processes faster, more transparent, and technology-driven. We are investing in automation, databased supervision, and secure infrastructure to improve how we interact with the market.

The SEC Boss stated that through its Digital Transformation Portal, the Commission has automated registration and licensing end-to-end as operators can now submit applications, upload documents, and track approvals online, cutting down manual processing time and reducing the need for physical visits.

Commercial Paper Issuance Module 

He said the Commission has also rolled out the Commercial Paper issuance module, which allows operators to file documents, monitor progress, and receive approvals electronically while feedback from early users shows a clear improvement in turnaround time.

“Work is ongoing to automate quarterly and annual returns submissions, with structured templates and system checks to ensure accuracy. A returns analytics dashboard is also in development to support risk based supervision and exception reporting.

“To back these changes, we have started upgrading our IT infrastructure, servers, storage, networks, and security layers, to boost speed and reliability. Selective cloud migration is underway for platforms that need scalability and external access, while core internal systems remain on premisev5p for now as we assess security and cost implications.

“At the same time, we are strengthening data integrity and cybersecurity with vulnerability assessments and planned penetration testing once automation and migration phases are stable. These efforts show our commitment to building a modern, resilient regulatory environment that supports efficiency, investor confidence, and market stability.

Agama affirmed that the Nigerian Capital Market is clearly on a path toward digital transformation, therefore,  there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity on advanced technologies, targeted support for smaller firms, and capacity-building initiatives.

He said, “A phased and proportionate approach to regulating emerging technologies such as AI is essential, complemented by internal readiness through supervisory technology tools. Furthermore, investor education, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical to future-proof participation and drive fintech adoption.

“Innovation is vital, but it must be accompanied by responsibility. As operators embrace automation, artificial intelligence, and data-driven tools, they bear a duty to ensure ethical, secure, and compliant deployment. Safeguarding investor data, preventing market abuse, and maintaining operational resilience are non-negotiable.”

The SEC DG said that ultimately, responsible technology adoption is about building trust, the cornerstone of our markets saying that trust thrives on fairness, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.

He therefore urged operators to uphold these principles adding that it would not only protect investors and systemic stability but also strengthen the long-term credibility and competitiveness of the Nigerian Capital Market.


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Naira Stability, Lower Borrowing Costs Expected in 2026 — CBN Survey

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The naira is projected to remain largely stable in the coming months, while borrowing costs are expected to ease as inflation moderates, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES).

Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest Business Expectations Survey (BES

CBN

The survey, which polled about 1,900 businesses nationwide, revealed that confidence in the local currency has strengthened. Respondents expect the naira to rise from an index of 28.8 points to 42.2 points by May 2026, extending the rare period of stability recorded throughout 2025.

Borrowing rates are also forecast to decline, with the index dropping from 15.4 points to 11.7 points, reflecting expectations of softer monetary conditions as inflationary pressures ease.

“Respondents expect the naira–US dollar exchange rate to steadily appreciate across the review periods, as indicated by the positive indices. They also anticipate a continuous positive outlook for borrowing rates during the same periods,” the BES report stated.

The naira has enjoyed an unusually long stretch of stability after losing about 41% of its value in 2024 following the unification of exchange rates. Analysts attribute the current calm to the CBN’s calibrated interventions and steady inflows from foreign portfolio investors.

Inflation, which stood at 14.45% in November 2025, is projected to fall to single-digit levels in 2026. This outlook could give monetary authorities room to begin a gradual easing cycle, potentially improving credit access for businesses.

Despite the improving macroeconomic environment, businesses continue to grapple with structural constraints. The survey highlighted insecurity (70.1 points), high/multiple taxation (69.7 points), and insufficient power supply (69.3 points) as the most pressing challenges. Other concerns include poor infrastructure and an unfavorable political climate, both scoring 57.7 points.

While optimism surrounds the naira and borrowing costs, the BES underscores the need for sustained reforms to tackle deep-rooted operational challenges. Analysts say that without addressing insecurity, taxation burdens, and infrastructure gaps, Nigeria’s businesses may struggle to fully benefit from the improving macroeconomic outlook.


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