E-Financial
Nigeria’s “Era of Renewed Stability” and the Truths the CBN Chooses to Overlook
By Blaise Udunze
At the Annual Bankers’ Dinner, when the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, recently stated that Nigeria had “turned a decisive corner,” his remark aimed to convey assurance that inflation was decelerating with headline inflation eased to 16.05percent and food inflation retreating to 13.12 percent, the exchange rate was stabilizing, and foreign reserves ($46.7 billion) had climbed to a seven-year peak. However, beneath this announcement, a grimmer and conflicting economic situation challenges households, businesses, and investors daily.
CBN
Stability is not announced; it is felt. For millions of Nigerians, however, what they are facing instead are increasing difficulties, declining abilities, diminished buying power, and susceptibilities that dispute any assertion of a steady macroeconomic path.
The 303rd MPC gathering was the most significant in recent times, revealing policies and statements that prompt more questions than clarifications. It highlighted an economy striving to appear stable, in theory, while the actual sector struggles to breathe.
This narrative explores why Cardoso’s assertion of “restored stability” is based on a delicate and partial foundation, and why Nigeria continues to be distant from attaining economic robustness.
Manufacturing: The Core of Genuine Stability Remains Struggling to Survive
A strong economy is characterized by growth in production, increased investment, and competitive industries. Nigeria lacks all of these elements.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) expressed this clearly in its response to the MPC’s choice to keep the Monetary Policy Rate at 27 percent. MAN stated that elevated interest rates are now” hindering production, deterring investment, and weakening competitiveness.
Producers are presently taking loans at rates between 30-37 percent, an environment that renders growth unfeasible and survival challenging. MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, emphasized that although stable exchange rates matter, no genuine industry can endure borrowing expenses to those charged by loan sharks.
The CBN’s choice to maintain elevated interest rates is based on drawing foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to support the naira’s stability. However, FPIs are well-known for being short-term, speculative, and reactive to disturbances. They do not signify long-term stability. Do they represent genuine economic development?
Genuine stability demands assurance, in manufacturing beyond financial tightening. Manufacturers are expressing, clearly and persistently, that no progress has been made.
Oil Output and Revenue: The Engine Behind Nigeria’s Stability Is Misfiring
Nigeria’s oil sector, which is the backbone of its fiscal stability, is underperforming. The 2025 budget presumed:
· $75 per barrel oil price
· 2.06 million barrels per day production
Both objectives have fallen apart. Brent crude lingers near $62.56 under the benchmark. Contrary to the usual explanations, experts attribute the decline not mainly to external shocks but to poor reservoir management, outdated models, weak oversight, and delayed technical decisions.
Engineer Charles Deigh, a regarded expert in reservoir engineering, clearly expressed that Nigeria is experiencing production losses due to inadequate well monitoring, obsolete reservoir models, and technical choices lacking fundamental engineering precision. These shortcomings result directly in decreased revenue. By September 2025:
– Nigeria had accumulated N62.15 trillion from oil revenue
– instead of the N84.67 trillion budgeted.
– In September, the Federal Inland Revenue Service reported a startling 49.60 percent deficit in revenue from oil taxes.
A nation falling short of its main revenue goals by 50 percent cannot assert stability. Instead, it will take loans. Nigeria has taken loans.
A Stability Built on Debt, Not Productivity
Nigeria is now Africa’s largest borrower, and the world’s third-biggest borrower from the World Bank’s IDA, with $18.5 billion in commitments. By mid-2025, the total public debt amounts to N152.4 trillion, marking a 348.6 percent rise since 2023.
From July to October 2025, the government secured contracts for: $24.79 billion, €4 billion, ¥15 billion, N757 billion, and $500 million Sukuk loans. Nevertheless, in spite of these acquisitions, infrastructure continues to be manufacturing remains limited, and social welfare is still insufficient.
Uche Uwaleke, a finance and capital markets professor, cautions that Nigeria’s debt service ratio is “detrimental to growth.” Currently, the government spends one out of every four naira it earns on servicing debts. Taking on debt is not harmful in itself, provided it finances projects that pay for themselves. In Nigeria, it supports subsistence. A country funding today, through the labour of the future, cannot assert restored stability.
The Naira: A Currency Supported by Fragile Pillars
The CBN contends that elevated interest rates and enhanced market confidence have contributed to the naira’s stabilisation. However, this steadiness is based on grounds that cannot endure even the slightest global disturbance. The pillars of a stable currency are:
– Rising domestic production
– Expanding exports
– Reliable energy supply
– Strong security
– A thriving manufacturing base
None of these is Nigeria’s current reality. What Nigeria actually receives is capital from portfolio investors, and past events (2014, 2018, 2020, 2022) have demonstrated how rapidly these funds disappear.
Unemployment: “Stable” Figures Mask a Rising Youth Crisis
The CBN touts a reported unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. However, the International Labour Organisation (ILO), along with economists, cautions that the approach conceals more serious issues in the labour market.
Youth joblessness has increased to 6.5 percent, and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group cautions that Nigeria needs to generate 27 million formal employment opportunities by 2030 or else confront a disastrous labour crisis. The employment crisis is a ticking time bomb. A country cannot maintain stability when its youth are inactive, disheartened, and financially marginalized.
FDI Continues to Lag Despite CBN’s Positive Outlook
During the 2025 Nigerian Economic Summit, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf stated that Nigeria’s efforts to attract direct investment (FDI) continue to be sluggish despite the implementation of reforms. FDI genuinely reflects investor trust, not portfolio inflows. FDI signifies enduring dedication, manufacturing plants, employment, and generating value. Nigeria does not have any of this as of now. An economy unable to draw long-term investments lacks stability.
139 Million Nigerians in Poverty: What Stability?
The recent development report from the World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians are living in poverty, and more than half of the population faces daily struggles. This is not stability. It is a humanitarian and economic crisis.
Food inflation continues to stay structurally high. The cost of a food basket has risen five times since 2019. Low-income families currently allocate much, as 70 percent of their earnings to food. A government cannot claim stability when its citizens go hungry.
A Fragile, Failing Power Sector
The power sector, another cornerstone of economic stability, is failing. Over 90 million Nigerians are without access to electricity, which is one of the highest figures globally. Even homes linked to the grid get 6.6 hours of electricity daily. Companies allocate funds to generators rather than to technology, innovation, or growth. Nigeria has now emerged as the biggest importer of solar panels in Africa, not due to environmental goals but because the national power grid is unreliable.
A country cannot achieve stability if it is unable to supply electricity to its residences, industrial plants, or medical centers.
Insecurity: The Silent Pillar Undermining All Economic Policy
Banditry, terrorism, abduction, and militant attacks persist in agriculture, manufacturing, logistics, and investment. Nigeria forfeits $15 billion each year due to insecurity and resources that might have fueled industrial development.
Food price increases are mainly caused by instability, and farmers are unable to cultivate, gather, or deliver their products. Nevertheless, the MPC approaches inflation predominantly as an issue of policy. In a country where insecurity fundamentally hinders the economy tightening policy cannot ensure stability.
Inflation Figures Under Suspicion
Questions have also emerged regarding the reliability of inflation data. Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, an economist, affirmed that the CBN might not entirely rely on the NBS inflation figures, highlighting increasing apprehension. A sharp decrease to 16 percent inflation clashes with market conditions.
Families are facing the food costs in two decades. Costs, for transport, housing rent, education fees, and necessary items keep increasing. Food prices cannot decline when farmers are abandoning their farmlands and fleeing for safety. If inflation figures are manipulated or partial, the stability story based on them becomes deceptive. There is, quite frankly, a significant disconnect between governance and the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians.
Foreign Reserves: A Story of Headlines vs Reality
Even Nigeria’s celebrated foreign reserves require scrutiny. The CBN reported $46.7 billion in reserves. However, a closer examination shows:
– Net usable reserves are only $23.11 billion
– The remainder is connected to commitments, swaps, and debts
Gross reserves make the news. Net reserves protect the currency. The difference is too large to assert that the naira is stable.
Nigeria’s Economic Contradiction: Stability at the Top, Volatility at the Bottom
In reality, Nigeria is caught between official proclamations of stability and lived experiences of volatility. The disparity between the CBN’s account and the actual experiences of Nigerians highlights a reality:
– Macroeconomic changes have failed to convert into improvements in human well-being.
– Nigeria might appear stable officially. Its citizens are experiencing instability in truth.
– Taking on debt is increasing
– Poverty is worsening
– Manufacturing is contracting
– Jobs are scarce
– Authority is breaking down
– Feelings of insecurity are growing stronger
– Inflation is undermining dignity
– Companies are struggling to breathe
– Capital is escaping
– Misery, among humans, is expanding
A strong economy is one where advancement is experienced, not announced.
What Genuine Stability Demands
To move from paper stability to real stability, Nigeria must:
1. Support domestic production. Cut interest rates for manufacturers, reduce borrowing costs, and provide targeted credit.
2. Fix oil production technically. Revamp reservoir engineering, implement surveillance. Allocate resources to adequate technical oversight.
3. Prioritize security. Secure farmlands, highways, and industrial corridors.
4. Reform the power sector. Invest in grid reliability, renewable integration, and private-sector-led transmission.
5. Attract real FDI. Streamline rules, enhance the framework, and maintain consistent policy guidance.
6. Anchor debt on productive projects. Take loans exclusively for infrastructure projects that produce income.
7. Prioritize reforms in welfare. Adopt crisis-responsive, domestically funded safety nets.
8. Improve transparency. Ensure inflation, employment, and reserve data reflect reality.
Stability Is Not Given; It Has to Be Achieved
The CBN Governor’s statement of “renewed stability” is hopeful. It remains unproven. The inconsistencies are glaring, the statistics too. The real-world experiences are too harsh. Nigerians require outcomes, not slogans. Stability is gauged not through statements on policy but by whether:
– Manufacturing plants are creating (factories operate at full capacity),
– Food is affordable,
– Young people have jobs
– The naira is strong without artificial props,
– Electricity is reliable,
– Security is assured,
– Poverty rates are decreasing.
Unless these conditions are met, Nigeria is not experiencing a period of restored stability. Instead, it is going through a phase of recovery, one that will collapse if the actual economy keeps worsening while decision-makers prematurely applaud their successes. The CBN must rethink its approach. Nigeria needs productive stability, not statistical stability.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
There’s something uniquely agonising about having your cryptocurrency stolen. All transactions are recorded in a digital ledger, known as a blockchain, so even if someone takes your money and puts it in their own crypto wallet, it remains visible online.
“You can see your money there on the public blockchain, but there’s nothing you can do to get it back,” says Helen, who lost around $315,000 (£250,000) to thieves.
She likens it to watching a burglar pile up your prized possessions on the other side of an impassable chasm.
For seven years, Helen and her husband Richard (not his real name), both UK residents, had been buying and stacking up crypto coins called Cardano.
They liked the idea of investing in a digital asset that had the potential to rise dramatically in value, unlike funds saved in more conventional ways. They knew it was riskier, but they were careful to keep their digital keys safe.
But somehow hackers got into their cloud storage account, where they kept information about their crypto wallets and how to access them.
In February 2024, after a small test transfer, the criminals swiftly and silently transferred all the couple’s coins to their own digital wallets.
The couple then watched for months as their money was moved from one wallet to another, powerless to do anything. (The inherent contradiction with cryptocurrency is that all transactions are publicly trackable, but users can be publicly untraceable if they choose.)
Helen and Richard are not wealthy. She is a personal assistant, he is a composer, and they had high hopes for their Cardano investments.
“We’d been buying these coins for so long… We used every scrap of money we could find to buy more,” says Richard. “Aside from my parents’ deaths, this theft is the worst thing to happen to me.”
Ever since, Helen has been on a mission to recover their money. She obtained detailed reports from various police forces and the Cardano developers. Now, even though she has the criminals’ wallet addresses, there is nothing anyone can do to unmask them.
Their plan is to save up enough to engage private investigators to try to trace the hackers.
“It leaves you with a feeling of helplessness,” she says, “but I am going to keep trying.
An explosion in crypto crime
A survey carried out for the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in August 2024, suggested that approximately 12% of British adults owned crypto-assets – equivalent to about seven million people.
Globally, it has been estimated that 560 million people are now crypto owners. But as ownership rose, so did theft. The pandemic ushered in a surge in the value of crypto coins and, with it, an explosion in attacks on the industry.
And 2025 was another bumper year for crypto criminals, with total thefts standing at more than $3.4bn (£2.5bn), according to investigators at blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis. The annual figure has remained in the same ballpark since 2020.
Most of the money is being stolen through massive cyberattacks on crypto companies. For example, North Korean hackers swiped $1.5bn (£1.1bn) from crypto exchange Bybit in February 2025.
The losses in this case and the vast majority of others are covered by the deep-pocketed crypto firms, with little impact on individuals. But 2025 also saw an increase in the number of attacks on individual crypto investors.
Chainalysis research says these individual attacks rose from 40,000 in 2022 to 80,000 last year.
Hacking, scamming or coercing of individuals accounted for an estimated 20% of all crypto value stolen – estimated at $713m (£532m).
But the company adds that the number could be far higher, as not all victims will choose to report thefts publicly. When this happens, you could be left on your own.
Many thefts or scams in traditional finance are covered by banks or card companies. In the UK, you can complain to the Financial Ombudsman Service and may be compensated by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
“Crypto remains largely unregulated in the UK and high-risk,” says the FCA. “If something goes wrong, it is unlikely you will be protected so you should be prepared to lose all your money.”
A stark reminder of this comes if you search online for “Binance account hacked” – Binance is the world’s largest crypto exchange with a reported 1.4m UK users – but the page on its website offering advice to victims of theft is blocked in the UK.
The company has not been accepting new UK clients since 2023 because it is not authorised by the FCA to operate. Yet criminals don’t care where victims are, and people are being targeted all over the world indiscriminately.
Chainalysis has described these attacks on individuals as the “under-documented frontier for crypto crime”.
They put the volume of crimes down to the number of people entering the crypto world as investors, as the value of coins has risen, and argue that improved security practices at major services could have pushed “attackers toward individuals perceived as easier targets”.
Then there is the fact that the more crypto you hold and the more public you are about it, the more likely you are to be targeted – small-time holders (or hodlers, as the community calls them) are far less likely to be affected.
Burglaries, muggings and ‘wrench attacks’
As for the thieves, they could be anywhere.
In October, blockchain researchers from Elliptic, a crypto analysis company, warned that North Korean state-sponsored hackers are increasingly targeting wealthy cryptocurrency owners. There are plenty of young scammers and hackers from other countries, too.
In December in the US, 22-year-old Evan Tangeman pleaded guilty to being part of a group of crypto thieves calling themselves the Social Engineering Enterprise, who are accused of stealing more than $260m (£194m) between October 2023 and May 2025.
Prosecutors allege they targeted the crypto-rich using hacked databases, tricking victims into thinking they were cryptocurrency exchanges, and persuading them to transfer coins.
Members of the gang, who were all young men mostly in the US, are said to have spent the stolen coins on private jets, expensive cars and luxury handbags that they would give away at nightclubs.
In some cases, prosecutors say, the gang organised home break-ins to steal hardware containing the keys to crypto stashes.
Burglaries and muggings have become so common that there is now a term for them in the crypto community – “wrench attacks” – so called because criminals have been known to threaten victims with spanners.
Last April, crypto criminals in Spain tried to force a man and woman to part with their cryptocurrency.
Spanish police said the man was shot in the leg and he, along with his partner, were held captive for several hours while the criminals tried to access their crypto wallets. Eventually, the woman was released, but her partner remained missing, with his body later found in woodland.
Five people were arrested in Spain in connection with the case, while four others in Denmark were charged.
There have been several similar cases in France, including one when an attempted kidnap was captured on video.
Source.. BBC
Despite lingering regulatory uncertainty, Nigeria processed an estimated $92.1 billion in cryptocurrency transactions between July 2024 and June 2025, reaffirming its position as Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest crypto market, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
The figure, published in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 titled “Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth”, shows that Nigeria received nearly three times the crypto transaction value recorded in South Africa over the same period.
PwC attributed Nigeria’s dominance to its large population, youthful and digitally savvy users, persistent inflation, and continued foreign exchange (FX) access constraints, which have pushed many individuals and businesses toward crypto and stablecoins as alternative financial channels.
The report noted that crypto adoption in Nigeria reflects both economic necessity and structural transformation in financial behaviour.
PwC said Bitcoin continues to dominate fiat-to-crypto purchases in Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 89 per cent of transactions in Nigeria and 74 per cent in South Africa, underscoring its role as a default hedge and entry asset in volatile or constrained financial environments.
It added that stablecoin usage is structurally higher in Nigeria, signalling reliance on crypto rails as an informal FX market and dollar-substitute channel.
However, PwC cautioned that the data reflects only centralised exchange activity and excludes peer-to-peer transactions and informal flows, suggesting that actual volumes may be significantly higher.
PwC projected that Nigeria is likely to retain its position as the region’s largest crypto market in 2026, driven by FX access challenges, inflation sensitivity, and sustained demand for stablecoins as a store of value and settlement mechanism.
The firm also noted that Nigeria had earlier processed about $59 billion in crypto transactions, largely driven by young, tech-savvy users, highlighting deepening adoption momentum.
“The rising usage of crypto, especially among Nigeria’s youth, underscores the urgent need to accelerate regulatory cohesion in the near term,” the report stated.
PwC identified several key issues that will shape Nigeria’s crypto landscape in 2026, including industry adoption and compliance challenges, licensing and regulatory frameworks, a structural shift in crypto taxation, capital flow management, and market surveillance.
On licensing and regulation, PwC observed that progress remains slow, with only two exchanges granted provisional approval so far.
This, it said, highlights capacity and sequencing challenges within the regulatory framework. The firm warned that the planned rollout of crypto-asset taxation could outpace supervisory readiness, raising concerns about effective enforcement without a fully operational licensing regime.
In terms of taxation, PwC disclosed that the new Tax and Tax Administration Acts, effective from 2026, will treat crypto profits as income taxed up to 25 per cent, replacing the previous 10 per cent capital gains tax.
This represents a significant increase in tax burden and complexity for crypto users. It also noted that Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) will face higher compliance and reporting obligations, raising operating costs for licensed platforms and potentially pushing more activity into informal or offshore channels
Dr. John C. Nwabueze, tax ombudsman/CEO, has stated that Nigerian taxpayers can now save on the cost of arbitration while still obtaining justice by resolving their tax complaints through the Office.
Dr. Nwabueze in a statement described the Office as a fair and efficient mediator between tax authorities and taxpayers.
Speaking after a strategic meeting with Taiwo Oyedele, chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC), Nwabueze emphasized that the Office of the Tax Ombud serves as a mediation safety net for small and medium enterprises as well as multinational companies.
He said the Office receives and resolves issues related to taxes, levies, charges, customs duties, and other related matters, adding that it is partnering to enhance taxpayers’ trust and compliance through transparent mediation and accountability.
Commenting on the partnership, Oyedele noted that the meeting was part of ongoing efforts to support the effective implementation of tax reforms.
He explained that the Office of the Tax Ombud is an independent and impartial body established under the new tax laws to protect taxpayer rights, resolve complaints quickly and fairly, and build trust in the tax system through mediation and advocacy.
“Our engagement focused on collaboration with the Tax Ombud, given his critical role in ensuring that the reforms deliver not just better tax systems, but a fairer and more responsive tax administration for taxpayers.”
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