General News
Nigeria’s Inflation Drop: Has Life Become Any Easier?
By Blaise Udunze
When the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday announced that Nigeria’s inflation rate had dropped to 18.02 percent in September 2025, the news was met with official applause. Government officials hailed it as evidence that the economy is recovering. Yet, for the millions of Nigerians struggling to buy food, pay rent, or fuel their generators, the question remains painfully simple: has life become any easier? The answer, for most Nigerians, is no.
Inflation has long been one of Nigeria’s most stubborn economic afflictions that has been eroding purchasing power, distorting markets, and deepening poverty. The recent “decline” in inflation has not eased the everyday hardship of ordinary people. Prices are still rising, incomes remain stagnant, and hope for relief feels distant.
Nigeria’s inflation is fundamentally cost-push in nature, not demand-driven. Rising energy prices, unstable foreign exchange, high transport costs, and insecurity in food-producing regions continue to fuel cost increases across all sectors. The removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira, though intended to restore fiscal discipline, have instead unleashed a new wave of inflationary pain. Each naira devaluation has made imports costlier, and with Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported food, fuel, and raw materials, the consequences are devastating for consumers.
This disconnect between the headline figures and the lived reality has deepened public distrust. Many Nigerians believe official inflation data do not reflect the economic pain they face daily. Critics, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have flagged weaknesses in Nigeria’s inflation measurement system: outdated expenditure weights dating back to 2003/2004, poor representation of the informal sector, and underweighted essentials like food and energy. Because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is infrequently rebased, it often lags behind real market conditions, which makes the official inflation rate appear lower than what citizens actually experience.
Independent trackers such as the “Jollof Index,” which measures the cost of cooking a basic Nigerian meal, consistently show higher inflation than the NBS reports. To most households, this is not a debate about methodology but about survival. A N1,000 note that once covered dinner now barely buys a few milk cups of rice. A civil servant’s salary, unchanged for years, has lost more than half its value. The supposed inflation “drop” is deceptive to those whose plates are emptier and whose transport costs have tripled.
Inflation has been a recurring symptom of Nigeria’s economic fragility since the return to democracy in 1999. Under Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007), inflation briefly spiked to 28 percent but eventually stabilized at single digits through reforms and debt relief. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (2007-2010) faced steady price rises amid Niger Delta unrest and weak policy continuity. Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) managed to keep inflation moderate, averaging about 10 percent, helped by oil windfalls and tighter monetary policy. However, under Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023), inflation more than doubled, peaking above 21 percent as recession, currency crises, and supply shocks battered the economy. The current administration of Bola Tinubu (2023-present) has witnessed the sharpest surge yet, which was above 34 percent in late 2024, as this was driven by subsidy removal, naira float, and imported inflation. Though the official rate now claims to have fallen to 18.02 percent after statistical rebasing, Nigerians still endure the steepest cost-of-living crisis in the nation’s history.
Across these 24 years of democratic governance, the pattern is unmistakable, showing that Nigeria’s inflation is structural, not cyclical. It is rooted in weak productivity, fiscal indiscipline, policy inconsistency, and dependence on imports. While numbers fluctuate, the hardship remains constant. Inflation may fall on paper, but it never leaves the market stalls, the bus parks, or the kitchens of ordinary Nigerians.
Efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to fight inflation through higher interest rates have achieved little because monetary tools alone cannot fix structural weaknesses. The way forward demands a broader agenda through reviving domestic production, securing farmlands, stabilizing the foreign exchange market, curbing fiscal leakages, and reforming energy and transport infrastructure to cut costs. Until then, inflation data will continue to serve as statistical comfort in an economic storm.
Inflation is not just a number; it is a mirror of national mismanagement. For now, Nigerians have learned to distrust figures that contradict the evidence of their daily struggles. A fall to 18.02 percent may please policymakers and investors, but it changes nothing for the teacher whose salary buys less each month or the parents who must choose between school fees and food.
Economic recovery is not when inflation falls; it’s when Nigerians can afford to live again, not living impoverished.
The latest World Bank Nigeria Development Update delivers a chilling verdict, as 139 million Nigerians, over half of the nation’s population, are said to be living in poverty. The report, titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” praises Nigeria’s bold macroeconomic reforms but warns that the gains have yet to trickle down to the people.
Poverty in Nigeria is not just growing; it’s metastasizing. The World Bank’s 139 million estimate translates to roughly six in ten Nigerians living below the poverty line.
The numbers are stark. The implications are severe. And the solutions will require more than incremental policy tweaks. What the nation is witnessing is an emergency, one that demands bold leadership, systemic change, and national resolve.
Despite measurable progress on paper indicating improved revenue inflows, a more stable foreign exchange market, and the easing of inflationary pressures, the truth in the streets tells a very different story. Nigeria today sits at a troubling crossroads where official statistics clash with the bitter truth of daily survival. Each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases inflation figures suggesting a country “stabilising.” Yet in the kitchens of Lagos, in the weary sighs of market women, and in the hollowed eyes of hungry children, a harsher reality unfolds, which is that empty pots don’t lie. Hunger, not percentages, is Nigeria’s truest inflation index.
Contrary to the promise by this administration of sweeping reforms to “reset” the economy, they unleashed an economic storm that continues to batter households. A bag of rice that sold for N35,000 two years ago now costs between N70,000 and N90,000. A crate of eggs has jumped from N1,200 to N6,200. Tomatoes, garri, and pepper, which are staples of everyday life, have drifted beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians.
This statistical adjustment may appear elegant on paper, but for millions who now spend 70 to 80 percent of their income on food, such figures are not just implausible; they’re insulting. Nigeria may have changed its base year, but it hasn’t changed the harsh arithmetic of survival.
Until the supposed recovery begins to show up in the kitchen, the market, and the wallet, the fall in inflation will remain what it truly is a statistical victory and a national deceit.
Again, we must understand that economic recovery is not when inflation falls; it’s when Nigerians can afford to live again.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Africa’s Global Bank, has reiterated its commitment towards building tangible economic bridges and strengthening diaspora-driven investment into Nigeria.
L-R: Group Managing Director/CEO, United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Oliver Alawuba, Chairman/CEO, Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM, Hon. Abike Dabiri and Chief Executive Officer, UBA UK, Loknath Mishra, during a strategic engagement with the African diaspora at the UBA UK Office, London.
UBA’s Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Oliver Alawuba, stated this on Monday, while hosting key representatives from the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM) led by its chairman/CEO, Hon. Abike Dabiri, at the bank’s UK office.
The strategic visit comes on the heels of UBA’s recently launched Diaspora Banking platform, which is designed to provide a seamless, integrated platform for Africans in the diaspora to bank, invest, and manage their financial obligations back home, thus connecting global Africans with investment and wealth opportunities.
The bank launched the platform, with leading ecosystem partners representing a major step in redefining diaspora banking beyond remittances toward structured wealth creation and long-term investment.
During the strategic meeting with the NIDCOM officials at the UBA UK office on Monday, Alawuba underscored the diaspora’s critical role as a powerful economic force and a generation of builders shaping new narratives for the continent.
While emphasising UBA’s role as a trusted partner for Nigerians at home and abroad, he said, “With UBA, you have a financial partner that is with you, that understands what you are going through, and that can support you to make sure you realise your aspirations, both here and in the country.”
Alawuba further encouraged the diaspora to leverage the opportunities within Africa’s economic landscape, stating: “You are not limited here; you have opportunities on the continent, and we want you to make good use of them. That is where banking, and we at UBA, become the connecting point that you need to access the opportunities back home. Whether you like it or not, the returns are high in Africa, and we are here to help you navigate that space.”
He also took time to reiterate the Bank’s readiness to leverage its global network and innovative financial solutions to support diaspora engagement.
The Chairman/CEO, NiDCOM, Hon. Abike Dabiri-Erewa, who commended UBA for being a trusted financial partner over the years, especially with the recent launch of its diaspora platform, praised the resilience and success of Nigerians abroad while calling for a stronger focus on constructive narratives.
She said, “Many of you here are the real game-changers. “For years, it has been wonderful engaging Nigerians all over the world. When I started, it felt like we only heard the bad stories, not the good ones. What we have tried to do internationally is to tell and celebrate the good stories. We have Nigerians doing well all over the world, and they are in this room. We must continue to celebrate you.”
While remarking that the meeting demonstrates a significant step in aligning public and private sector efforts to deepen diaspora inclusion and accelerate Nigeria’s development agenda, she pledged closer collaboration in driving policies and initiatives that encourage Nigerians abroad to actively participate in the country’s economic growth.
The discussions further highlighted UBA’s unique position to facilitate cross-border payments, unlock high-yield investment opportunities, and connect diaspora enterprises to markets across the continent.
With a robust global footprint and an unrivalled African presence, UBA continues to serve as the critical link for those looking to engage with the continent’s growing economy.
United Bank for Africa is one of the largest employers in the financial sector on the African continent, with 25,000 employees group-wide and serving over 45 million customers globally. Operating in twenty African countries, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, France and the United Arab Emirates, UBA provides retail, commercial and institutional banking services, leading financial inclusion and implementing cutting-edge technology.
Federal government said that it is adopting technology and innovation to speed up eradication of tuberculosis and other infectious diseases.
It also said $54 million had been approved for the procurement of drugs, especially for treatment of tuberculosis and HIV, to prevent stock-outs of life-saving medicines.
Speaking at the 2026 Pre-World Tuberculosis Day briefing in Abuja, organised by Stop TB Partnership Nigeria, Dr. Charles Nzelu, director, Public Health at the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, said the present government was making giant strides in addressing challenges in the health sector.
Nzelu said the ministry, under the leadership of Professor Muhammad Pate, had prioritised TB as a major pillar of the health agenda.
As part of the implementation of National Strategic Plan (2021-2026), Nzelu, said the ministry had adopted technology to help achieve the target of stopping tuberculosis from constituting a public health risk in the Nigeria.
He stated, “To bridge the gap, we are leading with innovation. Specifically, this year, the National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme (NTBLCP) is spearheading the national rollout of the Pluslife Mini Dock diagnostic platform.
“This near-point-of-care technology is a game-changer, allowing us to bring molecular-grade testing to the most remote communities, ensuring that no Nigerian is left behind due to geography.
“Nigeria is rolling out over a thousand of this diagnostic equipment. But technology is only as strong as the systems that support it.
“We are currently focused on strengthening our electronic reporting systems to ensure real-time data flow from the facility level to the national dashboard.”
Nzelu said transparency allowed the ministry to manage the supply chain effectively and prevent stock-outs of life-saving medicines.
In her remarks, Dr. Queen Ogbuji-Ladipo, board chair, Stop TB Partnership Nigeria, said the country had witnessed remarkable milestones in the fight against tuberculosis.
They included the mobilisation and engagement of high-level TB champions at the national, state, and local levels; strengthened collaboration with government and private-sector actors; increased advocacy for domestic financing; and expanded public awareness of TB prevention and care, Ogbuji-Ladipo said.
She, however, said there were challenges in funding to be addressed with the changing global health financing landscape and dwindling donor support.
According to her, “This reality makes domestic resource mobilization for TB more important than ever before. Sustainable financing from government budgets, private sector contributions, and innovative financing mechanisms will be critical to sustaining TB programs.”
In its presentation, Dr. Temitope Adetiba, TB Programme Lead – Institute of Human Virology (IHVN and Global Fund Project, said under the Global Fund Grant Cycle 7 for TB and HIV response, Nigeria had recorded over 300,000 TB case detection across the country.
In addition, IHVN said more than 3,000 drug-resistant TB cases were identified and linked to care, while over 2.3 million pregnant women were screened for TB and HIV across 2024 and 2025.
It also said Nigeria was increasingly taking TB and HIV services to the people within communities, households, and the private sector.
Dr. Mayowa Joel, executive secretary of Stop TB Partnership Nigeria, said the theme, “Yes We Can End TB”, was action oriented.
Joel said the theme challenged all stakeholders to move beyond discussions and commitments toward practical action.
He said, “This means ensuring that TB diagnostic services, treatment, and care reach everyone who needs them, especially through Primary Health Care, where most people first access health services.”
Dr. Mya Ngom, representative of Country Director of World Health Organisation (WHO), said Nigeria had made tremendous progress in responding to the epidemic.
According to Ngom, “In 2024, Nigeria reported 405,324 TB cases having increased from 106,533 cases in 2018, while 335,003 TB cases were reported in the three quarters of 2025.”
He said, “Expectantly, eighty percent (80 percent) of the estimated 510,000 incident TB cases will be detected and notified when the entire 2025 TB notification report is received. While this progress is encouraging, the fight against TB is far from over.
“The number of undetected TB cases averaging 175,000 cases constitutes a pool of reservoir that fuels on-going transmission of TB in the community as one undetected infectious TB case can infest between 12-15 persons per year.
“The emergence of Multi-Drug-Resistant TB (MDR-TB) and the high number of HIV further complicates the burden of TB in the country.”
Luno, an Africa-founded global exchange, has launched a structured Crypto Prediction Market, ushering in a new chapter for Nigeria’s cryptocurrency market.
This platform enables users to forecast short-term price fluctuations of key cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin , Ethereum , Solana, Dogecoin, Ripple, and earn USDC payments when when their predictions are accurate.
Powered by Limitless, the platform rewards right forecasts with USDC, a fully supported stablecoin.
This launch reflects shifting investment trends in Africa’s largest cryptocurrency market. Previously focused on long-term holding or spot trading, retail traders are now looking for tools that allow them to act on market information in a structured, short-term framework.
“We are seeing a clear shift in how Nigerians want to engage with crypto assets,” said Ayotunde Alabi, CEO of Luno Nigeria.
“Many already follow price movements closely and form strong market views; we want to lead with education as well as provide a safe and secure platform to help them apply that knowledge. This feature is designed to be a natural extension for those who enjoy forecasting.”
To mitigate risks, the platform integrates educational resources, dedicated prediction wallets, mandatory risk acknowledgements, and mechanisms preventing users from taking both sides of a market.
Unlike conventional derivatives or open-ended speculation, binary prediction markets are strictly outcome-based. Participants wager on whether an asset will close above or below a specific price target.
While this opens opportunities, it also carries high risk, as incorrect predictions result in total loss of the committed capital.
The launch could influence broader trends in African fintech. By introducing regulated, outcome-based products, exchanges can cater to a more informed investor base while promoting financial literacy.
For Nigeria, this could mark a turning point moving the market from passive participation to data-driven trading, providing a framework for responsible engagement in increasingly complex digital asset markets.
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