E-Financial
Nigeria’s Quest to Reclaiming Economic Stability
Sentiment towards the Nigerian economy received a painful blow in July following the shocking reports that the nation had slipped into a technical recession.
Africa’s largest economy has been heavily pressured by falling commodity prices, while external global uncertainties continue to expose the nation to noticeable downside risks.
It should be kept in mind that approximately 70% of Nigeria’s government revenues are attained from oil sales, with the incessant declines in oil prices sending shockwaves across the board.
Amid this turmoil, the renewed militancy in the south of Nigeria which has seen crude oil exports tumble to 27 year lows continue to enforce further pressures on an economy that is already in a very delicate situation.
The Naira has been pressured since the de-peg with the currency hitting record lows of 330 per Dollar on the official markets as traders examined lower levels to attract liquidity amid the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) inaction.
A combination of Dollar appreciation, depressed oil prices and concerns of diminishing domestic growth have created a foundation for bears to install repeated rounds of selling momentum on the Naira.
Further Naira weakness could be expected in the future as the natural forces of supply and demand determine its true equilibrium value.
Although there remain concerns over the Naira devaluation punishing the Nigerian economy further, the benefit of an increase in foreign investments in the long run could overshadow fears of rising inflation.
From a technical standpoint, the Naira is bearish and could weaken further against the Dollar on both the official and black market exchanges.
Speaking of inflation, Nigeria’s inflation lurched to the highest rate in almost 11 years as the mixture of Naira vulnerability and persistent concerns over the domestic economy punished purchasing power.
The sharp rise in inflation of 16.5% in June should be no surprise following the CBN’s decision to de-peg which sent prices on a steep decline.
Although inflation is at a worrying rate, the longer term impacts could elevate GDP growth, consequently boosting investor risk sentiment. With uncertainty still an ongoing theme in the financial markets, most central banks have adopted a cautious stance and this could also affect the Central Bank of Nigeria.
While it is widely expected that the Central Bank will keep policy measures unchanged in the upcoming July meeting, interest rates could be hiked before year end as a method to stabilise inflation while reducing some pressures on the Nigerian economy.
Global markets are still unstable from the post-Brexit uncertainty which has sent shockwaves across the board consequently punishing many nations. With Nigeria still a member of the Commonwealth, the painful impacts of the Brexit could indirectly have an effect on the fragile Nigerian economy.
Fears have already heightened over a potential Brexit fuelled recession in the UK economy and this could erode the amount of foreign investments towards Nigeria.
The ramifications of a decline in foreign investments may depress Nigeria’s GDP growth while reinforcing further pressure on the nation that is currently entangled in losing battle with depressed oil prices.
Major financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have cut Nigeria’s growth forecasts for 2016 which hasweighed heavily on investor confidence. The nation’s growth predictions for this year have been predicted to contract by 1.8%, a very sharp drop from the previous 2.3% forecast in April. While speculations have mounted over this probable decline in GDP growth, Nigeria’s finance minister Kemi Adeosun has said that there should be no panic.
Her positivity can be commended and if Nigeria follows the blue print of diversification then the future could potentially look bright for the nation.
Before Nigeria embarks on its quest to economic stability, questions must be asked over the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy measures which may have enforced further pressures in this period of declining oil prices.
The initial Naira-Dollar peg at 197 heavily diminished the nation’s foreign exchange reserves while ban of foreign exchange currency cash deposits punished domicile citizens. Transparency is lacking and this can be seen with the stealth intervention implemented by the CBN after the first initial announcement of the Naira de-peg in June.
With the Central Bank saying one thing and doing something completely different, this could inevitably repel foreign investors consequently leaving the economy pressured.
As of now, the Naira is the worst performing currency in Africa and this could be a recurrent theme if changes are not put in place.
The problem Nigeria faces is falling oil prices and the solution is diversification. It should be kept in mind that diversification is critical for the nation to be self-reliant with efforts to revitalizing agriculture, fixing infrastructure and an expansion on taxation bolstering economic growth.
With the CBN taking the initiative to truly de-peg the Naira against the Dollar, there are hopes that the attracted foreign investment and also increase in domestic competition elevates the economy in the longer run.
The country has already entered a currency deal with China in attempt to reduce the pressure of Dollar demand. Since over 70% of Nigeria’s imports come from China, this deal could be beneficial in the long term.
Questions should also be raised over the existence of Nigeria’s black market exchange which has also spiralled out of control with the Naira trading at 378 to the Dollar. It seems that the lack of liquidity and 41 banned items which cannot be purchased on the official exchange has naturally attracted investors to dabble into the black markets.
If the Central Bank of Nigeria wants to eradicate the disparity between the black markets and official, then the best action could be to remove the banned items.
Rather than banning the items on the exchange it could be more effective to enforce rules which make it difficult for these same items to enter the country.
Currency stability and economic growth are key factors that naturally attract foreign investors. If Nigeria succeeds in doing this via diversification and transparency, the future of the world’s largest African economy could look bright.
It must be understood that the cause of Nigeria’s woes has been the painful declines in oil prices which have punished government revenues while also weakening the Naira.
With diversification already in progress and the Naira de-pegged, the first steps taken to reclaiming self-reliance and stability have been taken. It is visible that Nigeria has entered a recession, but if the nation can weather this period of uncertainty then the positive outcome may exceed all expectations.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed banks and other financial institutions to complete a newly deployed cybersecurity self-assessment tool (CSAT) as part of efforts to strengthen resilience across the financial system.
In a circular dated March 30, the apex bank said the tool was introduced in line with its mandate under the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act 2020 and is designed to assess the cybersecurity posture of regulated entities.
According to the circular signed by Olubunmi Ayodele-Oni for the director of the compliance department, deposit money banks are required to submit their completed assessments within three weeks, while other institutions have five weeks.
The directive, which takes immediate effect, applies to deposit money banks, payment service banks, microfinance banks, payment service providers, finance companies, and development finance institutions.
“The CSAT is a structured supervisory instrument designed to obtain comprehensive information on the cybersecurity posture of regulated institutions,” the circular reads.
“It covers key areas including cybersecurity governance, risk management practices, technology and third-party risk controls, incident response capabilities, and overall operational resilience.
“Insights derived from the CSAT will support risk-based supervision and enhance regulatory oversight of cybersecurity risks across the financial system.
“Accordingly, all the referenced institutions are required to complete and submit the CSAT through a dedicated submission portal.”
The regulator added that access to the submission portal and guidance would be provided to chief information security officers and other relevant officials of the affected institutions.
CBN said all submissions must reflect data as of December 31, 2025, and be accompanied by relevant supporting documentation where applicable.
The apex bank warned that “submission of false, misleading, or inaccurate information constitutes a regulatory breach,” and would attract sanctions in line with BOFIA 2020.
CBN also said validation exercises, including off-site reviews and supervisory engagements, would be conducted to verify the accuracy of submissions.
NGX Regulation Limited (NGX REGCO), a wholly owned subsidiary of Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) has sanctioned five trading license holders for alleged market manipulation and other prohibited trading activities, imposing fines totaling N291million.
In a notification dated March 27, 2026, and addressed to Emomotimi Agama, director-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the regulator said the decision followed deliberations of its Regulatory and New Business Committee (RNBC) held on March 16 and 24, 2026.
The sanctioned firms are CSL Stockbrokers Limited, Cowry Securities Limited, Meristem Stockbrokers Limited, SMADAC Securities Limited, and Associated Asset Managers Limited.
NGX RegCo stated that the cases were escalated by its Investigation Panel after hearings on February 25 and March 17, 2026, which uncovered repeated infractions such as wash trades, self-matching transactions, artificial price formation, and misleading market activity.
CSL Stockbrokers was fined N91.29 million, while Cowry Securities, Meristem Stockbrokers, SMADAC Securities, and Associated Asset Managers were each penalized N50 million in accordance with the Investment and Securities Act 2025.
The Exchange also directed the affected firms to undertake mandatory compliance and market conduct training to reinforce regulatory adherence and enhance market discipline.
It noted that the sanctions are proportionate to the violations and are intended to deter future misconduct, reaffirming its commitment to safeguarding market integrity, protecting investors, and strengthening confidence in Nigeria’s capital market.
Federal government has launched the “Cross-Border Digital Payments and Identity in Nigeria under the AfCFTA” report, urging stakeholders to unlock trade opportunities for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to access the $3.5 trillion African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) market.
The high-level report, hosted by the Office of the Vice President in collaboration with ODI Global under the Supporting Investment and Trade in Africa (SITA) programme, was unveiled by Ibrahim Hassan-Hadejia, deputy chief of staff to the President, in Abuja.
Hassan-Hadejia described the research as both timely and strategic, noting the strong coordination by the Office of the Vice President and the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment.
He revealed that the cross-border payments report followed earlier milestones, including the development and launch of Nigeria’s Digital Trade Strategy and a capacity-building programme for subnational leaders.
Furthermore, he said Nigeria is increasingly assuming a leading role in shaping the digital trade agenda across the African continent, necessitating that the country remains at the forefront of AfCFTA implementation.
He noted that deepening engagement with AfCFTA and enabling businesses, particularly SMEs, to conduct seamless cross-border transactions will be critical to unlocking trade, fostering growth, and creating jobs.
He further stated that efficient cross-border payments, supported by trusted digital identity systems as recommended in the report, will be key to realising President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope vision for Nigerian MSMEs.
The Deputy Chief of Staff also observed that while the report identifies the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System as a critical platform for cross-border digital payments, Nigerian fintech firms such as PalmPay and Moniepoint, which have some of the largest and most active user bases, will play a pivotal role in driving adoption.
He assured that the Federal Government remains committed to strengthening critical infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and partnerships to ensure Nigeria is not only ready for digital trade but continues to lead.
“I appreciate the efforts of all stakeholders and urge us to move AfCFTA beyond a continental agreement to a $3.5 trillion trade juggernaut that will reinvigorate our industries, unlock intra-African trade, and domesticate African prosperity,” he added.
He said “intra-African trade will be driven not only by large corporations but by small businesses empowered through digital trade and e-commerce, while noting that issues of trust, identity, and logistics, as highlighted in the report, must be addressed”.
Commenting on the report, Temitola Adekunle-Johnson, special Adviser to the President on Job Creation and MSMEs, said the report – developed under the purview of the Office of the Vice President-would significantly strengthen the MSME ecosystem.
He expressed optimism that the report’s findings and recommendations would enable Nigerian SMEs to achieve seamless access to continental markets.
Salihu Dasuki, special Assistant to the President on ICT Policy, Office of the Vice President, disclosed that the office, in partnership with development partners, has developed a framework to fast-track seamless cross-border payments for MSMEs.
He added that “a key pillar of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda is enabling Nigerians to access digital trade, which informed the capacity-building programme conducted for subnational governments last year”.
Shuda Ahmed, special assistant to the President on Project Support, Office of the Vice President, commended ODI Global for leading the research underpinning the report.
She noted that without seamless and affordable cross-border payment systems, MSMEs across the continent would be unable to scale beyond their domestic markets.
The event was attended by officials of ODI Global, representatives of AfCFTA, the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), National Identity Management Commission (NIMC), Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC), Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), and MSMEs, among other key stakeholders.
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