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Nigeria’s Quest to Reclaiming Economic Stability

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Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
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Sentiment towards the Nigerian economy received a painful blow in July following the shocking reports that the nation had slipped into a technical recession.

Africa’s largest economy has been heavily pressured by falling commodity prices, while external global uncertainties continue to expose the nation to noticeable downside risks.

It should be kept in mind that approximately 70% of Nigeria’s government revenues are attained from oil sales, with the incessant declines in oil prices sending shockwaves across the board.

Amid this turmoil, the renewed militancy in the south of Nigeria which has seen crude oil exports tumble to 27 year lows continue to enforce further pressures on an economy that is already in a very delicate situation.

The Naira has been pressured since the de-peg with the currency hitting record lows of 330 per Dollar on the official markets as traders examined lower levels to attract liquidity amid the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) inaction.

A combination of Dollar appreciation, depressed oil prices and concerns of diminishing domestic growth have created a foundation for bears to install repeated rounds of selling momentum on the Naira.

Further Naira weakness could be expected in the future as the natural forces of supply and demand determine its true equilibrium value.

Although there remain concerns over the Naira devaluation punishing the Nigerian economy further, the benefit of an increase in foreign investments in the long run could overshadow fears of rising inflation.

From a technical standpoint, the Naira is bearish and could weaken further against the Dollar on both the official and black market exchanges.

Speaking of inflation, Nigeria’s inflation lurched to the highest rate in almost 11 years as the mixture of Naira vulnerability and persistent concerns over the domestic economy punished purchasing power.

The sharp rise in inflation of 16.5% in June should be no surprise following the CBN’s decision to de-peg which sent prices on a steep decline.

Although inflation is at a worrying rate, the longer term impacts could elevate GDP growth, consequently boosting investor risk sentiment. With uncertainty still an ongoing theme in the financial markets, most central banks have adopted a cautious stance and this could also affect the Central Bank of Nigeria.

While it is widely expected that the Central Bank will keep policy measures unchanged in the upcoming July meeting, interest rates could be hiked before year end as a method to stabilise inflation while reducing some pressures on the Nigerian economy.

Global markets are still unstable from the post-Brexit uncertainty which has sent shockwaves across the board consequently punishing many nations. With Nigeria still a member of the Commonwealth, the painful impacts of the Brexit could indirectly have an effect on the fragile Nigerian economy.

Fears have already heightened over a potential Brexit fuelled recession in the UK economy and this could erode the amount of foreign investments towards Nigeria.

The ramifications of a decline in foreign investments may depress Nigeria’s GDP growth while reinforcing further pressure on the nation that is currently entangled in losing battle with depressed oil prices.

Major financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have cut Nigeria’s growth forecasts for 2016 which hasweighed heavily on investor confidence. The nation’s growth predictions for this year have been predicted to contract by 1.8%, a very sharp drop from the previous 2.3% forecast in April. While speculations have mounted over this probable decline in GDP growth, Nigeria’s finance minister Kemi Adeosun has said that there should be no panic.

Her positivity can be commended and if Nigeria follows the blue print of diversification then the future could potentially look bright for the nation.

Before Nigeria embarks on its quest to economic stability, questions must be asked over the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy measures which may have enforced further pressures in this period of declining oil prices.

The initial Naira-Dollar peg at 197 heavily diminished the nation’s foreign exchange reserves while ban of foreign exchange currency cash deposits punished domicile citizens. Transparency is lacking and this can be seen with the stealth intervention implemented by the CBN after the first initial announcement of the Naira de-peg in June.

With the Central Bank saying one thing and doing something completely different, this could inevitably repel foreign investors consequently leaving the economy pressured.

As of now, the Naira is the worst performing currency in Africa and this could be a recurrent theme if changes are not put in place.

The problem Nigeria faces is falling oil prices and the solution is diversification. It should be kept in mind that diversification is critical for the nation to be self-reliant with efforts to revitalizing agriculture, fixing infrastructure and an expansion on taxation bolstering economic growth.

With the CBN taking the initiative to truly de-peg the Naira against the Dollar, there are hopes that the attracted foreign investment and also increase in domestic competition elevates the economy in the longer run.

The country has already entered a currency deal with China in attempt to reduce the pressure of Dollar demand. Since over 70% of Nigeria’s imports come from China, this deal could be beneficial in the long term.

Questions should also be raised over the existence of Nigeria’s black market exchange which has also spiralled out of control with the Naira trading at 378 to the Dollar. It seems that the lack of liquidity and 41 banned items which cannot be purchased on the official exchange has naturally attracted investors to dabble into the black markets.

If the Central Bank of Nigeria wants to eradicate the disparity between the black markets and official, then the best action could be to remove the banned items.

Rather than banning the items on the exchange it could be more effective to enforce rules which make it difficult for these same items to enter the country.

Currency stability and economic growth are key factors that naturally attract foreign investors. If Nigeria succeeds in doing this via diversification and transparency, the future of the world’s largest African economy could look bright.

It must be understood that the cause of Nigeria’s woes has been the painful declines in oil prices which have punished government revenues while also weakening the Naira.

With diversification already in progress and the Naira de-pegged, the first steps taken to reclaiming self-reliance and stability have been taken. It is visible that Nigeria has entered a recession, but if the nation can weather this period of uncertainty then the positive outcome may exceed all expectations.

 

 


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E-Financial

First Asset Management Receives Upgraded Ratings from Agusto &Co and DataPro

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First Asset Management, a subsidiary of FirstHoldCo Plc has recorded a significant milestone as its rating was upgraded to ‘AA’ from ‘AA-’ by DataPro, reflecting the firm’s strong fundamentals and sustained resilience in Nigeria’s Asset management landscape.

The rating upgrade, issued in DataPro’s latest rating report, underscores First Asset Management’s diversified income base, high-quality investment portfolio, and experienced team, all of which continue to support the firm’s long-term stability, sound governance framework, and consistent performance.

The improved rating highlights the organisation’s ability to maintain strong operational fundamentals while effectively navigating market cycles. It further reflects First Asset Management’s disciplined investment philosophy, prudent risk management practices, and commitment to delivering value-driven solutions to its clients.

Speaking on the upgrade, Ike Onyia, Managing Director/CEO of First Asset Management, stated, “We are pleased with DataPro’s decision to upgrade our rating to ‘AA’. This recognition affirms the depth of our investment expertise, and the consistency of our governance and risk management processes. We remain focused on sustaining strong performance while delivering reliable investment outcomes for our clients.”

In a related development, Agusto & Co. has upgraded the rating of the First Asset Money Market Fund to ‘Aa-(f)’ from ‘A+(f)’, further reinforcing the strength of First Asset Management’s product offering.

According to Agusto & Co., the upgraded rating reflects the fund’s consistent low exposure to interest rates and liquidity risks, as well as the fund manager’s commendable professionalism and prudent investment approach. The rating affirms First Asset Money Market Fund’s position as a formidable investment vehicle for capital preservation and steady income generation.

First Asset Management continues to maintain a strong position within Nigeria’s asset management industry, supported by its disciplined investment framework, experienced investment professionals, and a growing suite of products designed to meet the evolving needs of retail and institutional investors.

DataPro and Agusto & Co. are both recognized leaders in ratings and investment research in Nigeria, with extensive experience providing independent assessments across multiple sectors. Their ratings are widely accepted as benchmarks for evaluating financial strength, risk management, and business sustainability.

First Asset Management is a leading Nigerian investment manager within the FirstHoldCo Group. The firm has evolved into a full service investment platform, offering integrated wealth and portfolio solutions across the Group.

First Asset Management manages diversified strategies spanning fixed income, equities, alternatives, passive and quantitative products, in multiple currencies for a variety of individual, intermediary and institutional clients.


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Zenith Bank Gets Regulatory Approval for Full Takeover of Paramount Bank

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Zenith Bank, Nigeria’s second biggest lender by market value, has received approval from the Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) to acquire 100 percent of Paramount Bank Limited, clearing a key regulatory hurdle in its East African expansion drive.

In a statement on Thursday, CAK said the transaction is “unlikely to lead to a substantial prevention or lessening of competition in the market for the provision of banking services in Kenya” and would strengthen Paramount’s financial position, helping it meet enhanced core capital requirements over the long term.

The Kenyan regulator noted that the deal poses no risk of reduced competition in the country’s banking sector. Zenith currently has no banking operations in Kenya, while Paramount is a Tier III lender with a modest 0.2 percent market share.

“The approval is based on the Authority’s determination that the transaction is unlikely to harm competition, while any negative public interest concerns regarding employment can be addressed through mitigating remedies,” CAK added.

Paramount met the Central Bank of Kenya’s KSh3.0 billion core capital requirement in November last year, reporting KSh3.118 billion after raising KSh332 million from shareholders, according to Mwango Capital, a Nairobi-based research firm.

The deal reflects a broader shift among banks in East Africa’s largest economy as lenders seek growth opportunities beyond increasingly saturated home markets marked by weak credit expansion, rising regulatory costs, and intense competition.

While several global banks — including Standard Chartered and HSBC — have scaled back African operations over the past decade, Zenith’s move signals confidence in selective regional expansion, particularly in East Africa, where economic growth and financial inclusion trends remain supportive.

The banking group is also widening its continental footprint. Last month, the lender disclosed plans to expand into Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, as it targets generating up to half of its profits outside Nigeria over the medium term.

Historically, Nigeria, the continent most populous nation contributed as much as 90 percent of the bank’s earnings, a dominance that is now gradually easing.

Data cited by The Africa Report show that profit contributions from foreign subsidiaries rose to 27 percent in the first nine months of 2025, up from 14 percent in 2024.

Nigeria’s banking recapitalisation drive is also pushing large lenders such as Zenith to deploy capital beyond their home market. In January 2025, Zenith — which holds an international banking licence — raised N350.4 billion ($242 million), lifting its paid-up capital to N614.6 billion ($425 million).

With higher capital buffers in place, banks are reassessing how best to deploy fresh funds as domestic earnings normalise following two years of windfall gains.

As part of the approval, Zenith has been required to retain Paramount’s 78 employees for at least 12 months after the transaction is completed.

The bank is listed on the Nigerian and London stock exchanges and operates across corporate, commercial, retail, and investment banking. Its international subsidiaries span the United Kingdom, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Gambia, the UAE, and China.

 


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Court Jails Ogiemwonyi, Stockbroker for Theft of $80,000, N953m Shares Proceeds

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Victor Ogiemwonyi, a Lagos stockbroker, and Partnership Securities Limited, his company, have been convicted for allegedly stealing shares worth N953 million and $80,000 belonging to one Mr. Arnold Onyekwere Ekpe, a former managing director of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI).

Court Jails Ogiemwonyi, Stockbroker for Theft of $80,000, N953m Shares Proceeds

Ogiemwonyi was convicted after he was found guilty of two-count charges bordering on stealing, contrary to Section 285(1), (9) (b) and (c) of the Criminal Law of Lagos State, 2011 slammed on him by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

Ekpe, through Messrs Margaret Onyema, his counsel, has sometimes in October 2016 in a petition to the EFCC alleged that he instructed the defendants to sell his 96,077,872 units of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) shares, which were sold at the rate of N1,296,885,311.02.

But he said out of the proceeds of the sale, the stock broker paid only N300,000,000.00 to him while he dishonestly diverted the balance for personal use.

Following investigations, the defendants were charged with two counts of stealing.

Count one reads:

”Victor Ogiemwonyi and Partnership Securities Limited between the months of June, 2016 and September, 2016 at Lagos within the jurisdiction of this honourable court dishonestly stole the sum of N953, 535,861.57 (Nine Hundred and Fifty Three Million, Five Hundred and Thirty Five Thousand, Eight Hundred and Sixty one Naira Fifty Seven Kobo) being part of the proceeds of sale of 96, 077, 872 Ecobank Transnational Incorporated Shares, property of Mr. Arnold Onyekwere Ekpe”.

Count Two reads:

“Victor Qgiemwonyi and Partnership Securities Limited sometime between June, 2016 and July, 2016 at Lagos within the jurisdiction of this honourable court dishonestly stole the sum of USD$80,000.00 (Eighty Thousand United States of America Dollars) which formed part of the accrued dividends on 96, 077,872 Ecobank Transnational incorporated Shares, property of Mr. Anold Onyekwere Ekpe”.

At trial, the prosecution, led by Ola Sesan, called five witnesses and tendered 67 exhibits, all of which were admitted and marked by the court.

The defence, on its part, called three witnesses, including the first defendant.

Delivering judgment on Wednesday, Justice Modupe Nicole-Clay of the Lagos State High Court sitting in Ikeja, Lagos convicted Ogiemwonyi and his company, Partnership Securities Limited, guilty on all counts.

The court sentenced the first convict to pay a fine of N10 million, while the second convict was ordered to pay a fine of N20 million.

Also, the court directed the convicts to pay back the entire money stolen from the petitioner, both in naira and dollars.

Recall that Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, had in 2017 banned Victor Ogiemwonyi, from operating in the capital market for life over alleged unprofessional conduct in the Nigerian capital market.

He was also banned for life from holding directorship position in any public company in Nigeria.

He was also ordered to pay a penalty of N100,000.

SEC said Ogiemwonyi was banned after he was found guilty of breaching Rule 1(iii) of the Code of Conduct for Capital Market Operators and Their Employees as contained in its Rules and Regulations made pursuant to the Investments and Securities Act 2007.

The ban also followed petition by EFCC to SEC accusing Ogiewonyi of misappropriation of about N1.24 billion, $80,000.00, stealing and dishonest conversion of proceeds of share sale belonging to an investor.

It was alleged that he used his company to dupe over 300 investors over N4.8 billion with Arnold Ekpe a former Managing Director of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, ETI, being one of his victims.


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