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Opinion: Nigeria Ends 2017 on a Firm Footing

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By Lukman Otunuga

It has certainly been a phenomenal and somewhat pivotal year for the Nigerian economy which managed to climb out of its first recession in 25 years, during the second quarter of 2017.

The unsavory combination of heavily depressed oil prices, reduced foreign reserves, and a vulnerable Naira in 2016, initially fueled speculations of the nation’s macroeconomic conditions remaining depressed for a prolonged period.

However, the status of Nigeria’s economy did a pleasant turn around this year as core macro-economic indicators started to rebound.

The recession made it increasingly clear that the illness behind Nigeria’s economic woes was a heavy dependence on oil as a source of growth, but the cure could be found in diversification.

As Nigeria continues its quest to break away from the shackles of oil reliance by diversifying into other sustainable sources of growth in the longer term, recovering oil prices could still offer some benefits short term.

With the government’s revenues still dependent on the oil sector, the performance of oil in 2018 will have an impact on the economy.

Although supply-side disruptions and market optimism over OPEC’s production cuts balancing markets, have elevated WTI Crude to its highest level in over two years at $60, the question remains for how long?

With rising production from U.S. Shale seen as a threat to higher oil prices, the upside is likely to face some headwinds. Depreciating oil prices amid renewed oversupply concerns could easily trickle down to negatively impact the Nigerian economy.

Another risk to look for next year, is the possibility of OPEC formally requesting Nigeria to limit production by 1.8 million barrels a day- like the other oil producers.

With the 2018 budget based on oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day, this presents some headwinds to the successful implementation process of the budget, and could negatively impact the economy as a result.

Focusing on the macro fundamentals, the picture is encouraging, as inflationary pressures eased considerably from the peak of 18.72% to 15.90% in November 2017.

Exports followed a positive trajectory in 2017 which was supportive of GDP potential, while imports cooled as the nation consumed local produce. With Nigeria’s economic resilience stimulating investor risk appetite, the Nigerian Stock Exchange ventured higher; appreciating 41% year to date.

Due to improving business confidence in the country, the manufacturing PMI also rebounded significantly this year, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector.

In the most recent publication of the World Bank’s report on the ease of doing business, Nigeria’s ranking was pushed up by 24 places, underscoring the more promising economic outlook.

The Central Bank of Nigeria may be commended for its efforts to help stabilize the chaotic forex market this year by introducing an importers and exporters foreign exchange window.

With the window increasing the ease for investors to trade the Dollar, the Naira – which dropped to as low as N525 to the Dollar- staged a recovery, with prices trading around 365 as of writing. As we enter the New Year it is vital that Nigeria puts more effort into creating a stable and unified exchange rate across the forex markets.

It must be kept in mind that a liquid forex market combined with increased investment in other sources of growth such as agriculture, has the ability to tame inflationary pressures. When inflation displays further signs of moderation, the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to take action by cutting interest rates from 14% to 12% in an effort to support economic growth further.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to cut interest rates in 2018 as inflationary pressures ease and the economy stabilizes further, attention should be paid to external factors. For example, with the Federal Reserve raising U.S. interest rates in December and the Bank of England potentially hiking rates in the near term to cap inflation, there is a possibility the CBN remains on standby during Q1.

As we enter the New Year, I remain highly optimistic over Nigeria’s long-term economic outlook but much work needs to be done in the short to medium term.  The nation remains in need of urgent macroeconomic and structural reforms, not only to support the current recovery but to place it on a path of sustainable growth.

With the IMF forecasting real GDP growth of 2.1% and the Federal Government targeting 3.5% in the 2018 budget, it will be interesting to see if the nation under or over performs in 2018.

Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM


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E-Financial

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

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Stakeholders in the banking and financial ecosystem, yesterday, decried the surge in cyber fraud as Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) lost N10 billion in the second quarter of 2023, representing almost 300 per cent year-on-year compared to the previous year.

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

At a Mastercard forum convened to tackle fraud and cybersecurity threats in the financial sector, Kari Tukur, vice president, Customer Solutions Centre, East and West Africa at Mastercard, said despite the massive awareness and innovations aimed at combating cybersecurity, the amount lost last year by DBMs was “staggering”.

She said, “With Nigeria’s rapidly growing economic expansion, we are starting to see an increase in the adoption of digital financial services, and the financial landscape is also evolving at an astronomical speed.

“What was staggering for me was in spite of the huge investment around innovation, funding in the cyber space, DBMs lost almost N10bn in Q2 last year, and that was almost 300 per cent growth year-on-year when compared to the previous year.”

She noted that there was the need for collaboration among stakeholders “to combat this rising sophistication of cyber security threat.”

Tukur further stated that Mastercard was deeply committed to cyber security and fraud prevention within the payment industry, disclosing that the company invested $250m “to assist small businesses in addressing their cyber security needs.”

She disclosed that Mastercard payment portals incorporated multiple layers of security such as tokenisation technology, encryption and biometrical to stay ahead of cyber attackers.

She added that, “The sector continues to struggle with the aforementioned challenges, necessitating vigilance, proactive action and comprehensive security strategy, and Mastercard remains committed to providing safe, secure and seamless payment services and experiences for our partners and customers in Nigeria and beyond.”

Celestina Appeal, chairman, Committee of e-Business Industry Heads (CeBIH), stated that the total loss to the banking industry in the last couple of years totalled hundreds of billions of naira while Nigeria’s Consumer Awareness and Financial Enlightenment Initiative had projected a $6trn loss by 2030 to cybercrime within and outside Nigeria.

Represented by Mr Temitope Onibaniyi, secretary of the committee, she stated that the committee was ever-willing to collaborate with industry stakeholders to fight against the perpetrators who “constantly rob banks and other stakeholders in the payments industry of their hard-earned money.”

She said the need for collaboration could not be overemphasised as no individual organisation was immune to cyber security attacks.

 

 


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Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

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President Bola Tinubu has approved the appointment of some Nigerian professionals to the Board of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

This is contained in a statement issued by Ajuri Ngelale, special adviser to the President on Media and Publicity.

Tinubu appointed Mr. Mairiga Aliyu Katuka  as the Chairman of the board of SEC, while Mr. Emomotimi Agama has been appointed as the  Director-General of the board.

The president also appointed Frana Chukwuogor  as Executive Commissioner (Legal and Enforcement) of the board.

Tinubu further appointed Mr. Bola Ajomale as the Executive Commissioner (Operations) of the board, while Mrs. Samiya Hassan Usman is the Executive Commissioner (Corporate Services) of the board.

Also appointed into the board are Mr. Lekan Belo as Non-Executive Commissioner and Mr. Kasimu Garba Kurfi as Non-Executive Commissioner.

According to Ngelale, the president anticipated that “all members of the Board of this critical commission will bring to bear their wealth of experience and competence in advancing the commission’s core mandate of developing and regulating a capital market that is dynamic, fair, transparent, and efficient, to bolster investor confidence and contribute immeasurably to the nation’s economic development.”


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Ecobank Repays $500m Eurobond

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Ecobank has announced the successful repayment of its $500 million five-year Eurobond issued in 2019. According to a statement filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), the Eurobond garnered considerable interest from a diverse range of global investors, including long-term development partners such as FMO and Proparco, who served as anchor investors.

Commenting on this achievement, Ecobank Group Financial Officer, Ayo Adepoju, said: “The bond was listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange with a coupon rate of 9.5 per cent. The principal and interest repayment, totalling $524 million, was distributed to bondholders through the transaction agent on the bond maturity date of April 18, 2024.

“This inaugural bond we are retiring today was critical in introducing our firm to a wider array of global investors and contributed to the increased visibility of our brand in the capital markets.”

Against the backdrop of challenges posed by the global operating environment, including disruptions in the world supply chain and financial markets, Adepoju highlighted the Group’s resilience. He cited strong liquidity, a robust balance sheet, and a solid leadership team as key factors enabling Ecobank’s success.

He added that the successful repayment of the Eurobond underscores Ecobank’s commitment to financial stability and investor confidence, positioning the firm for continued growth and success in the global market.

 


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