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Opinion: Nigeria Ends 2017 on a Firm Footing

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By Lukman Otunuga

It has certainly been a phenomenal and somewhat pivotal year for the Nigerian economy which managed to climb out of its first recession in 25 years, during the second quarter of 2017.

The unsavory combination of heavily depressed oil prices, reduced foreign reserves, and a vulnerable Naira in 2016, initially fueled speculations of the nation’s macroeconomic conditions remaining depressed for a prolonged period.

However, the status of Nigeria’s economy did a pleasant turn around this year as core macro-economic indicators started to rebound.

The recession made it increasingly clear that the illness behind Nigeria’s economic woes was a heavy dependence on oil as a source of growth, but the cure could be found in diversification.

As Nigeria continues its quest to break away from the shackles of oil reliance by diversifying into other sustainable sources of growth in the longer term, recovering oil prices could still offer some benefits short term.

With the government’s revenues still dependent on the oil sector, the performance of oil in 2018 will have an impact on the economy.

Although supply-side disruptions and market optimism over OPEC’s production cuts balancing markets, have elevated WTI Crude to its highest level in over two years at $60, the question remains for how long?

With rising production from U.S. Shale seen as a threat to higher oil prices, the upside is likely to face some headwinds. Depreciating oil prices amid renewed oversupply concerns could easily trickle down to negatively impact the Nigerian economy.

Another risk to look for next year, is the possibility of OPEC formally requesting Nigeria to limit production by 1.8 million barrels a day- like the other oil producers.

With the 2018 budget based on oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day, this presents some headwinds to the successful implementation process of the budget, and could negatively impact the economy as a result.

Focusing on the macro fundamentals, the picture is encouraging, as inflationary pressures eased considerably from the peak of 18.72% to 15.90% in November 2017.

Exports followed a positive trajectory in 2017 which was supportive of GDP potential, while imports cooled as the nation consumed local produce. With Nigeria’s economic resilience stimulating investor risk appetite, the Nigerian Stock Exchange ventured higher; appreciating 41% year to date.

Due to improving business confidence in the country, the manufacturing PMI also rebounded significantly this year, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector.

In the most recent publication of the World Bank’s report on the ease of doing business, Nigeria’s ranking was pushed up by 24 places, underscoring the more promising economic outlook.

The Central Bank of Nigeria may be commended for its efforts to help stabilize the chaotic forex market this year by introducing an importers and exporters foreign exchange window.

With the window increasing the ease for investors to trade the Dollar, the Naira – which dropped to as low as N525 to the Dollar- staged a recovery, with prices trading around 365 as of writing. As we enter the New Year it is vital that Nigeria puts more effort into creating a stable and unified exchange rate across the forex markets.

It must be kept in mind that a liquid forex market combined with increased investment in other sources of growth such as agriculture, has the ability to tame inflationary pressures. When inflation displays further signs of moderation, the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to take action by cutting interest rates from 14% to 12% in an effort to support economic growth further.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to cut interest rates in 2018 as inflationary pressures ease and the economy stabilizes further, attention should be paid to external factors. For example, with the Federal Reserve raising U.S. interest rates in December and the Bank of England potentially hiking rates in the near term to cap inflation, there is a possibility the CBN remains on standby during Q1.

As we enter the New Year, I remain highly optimistic over Nigeria’s long-term economic outlook but much work needs to be done in the short to medium term.  The nation remains in need of urgent macroeconomic and structural reforms, not only to support the current recovery but to place it on a path of sustainable growth.

With the IMF forecasting real GDP growth of 2.1% and the Federal Government targeting 3.5% in the 2018 budget, it will be interesting to see if the nation under or over performs in 2018.

Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM


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E-Financial

FCMB Turns Normal Banking into Rewards with New Mobile App Upgrade

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First City Monument Bank (FCMB) has introduced a set of new features on its mobile app, led by a reward points system that turns everyday transactions into tangible benefits for customers.

FCMB Turns Normal Banking into Rewards with New Mobile App Upgrade

With this update, FCMB shifts the focus from routine banking to value creation, giving customers a stronger reason to engage, transact, and stay within its digital ecosystem.

At the centre of the upgrade is the Reward Points feature, which allows customers to earn and redeem points on transactions made in the app. The more customers use the platform, the more value they unlock, creating a direct link between daily banking activity and real-life rewards.

Beyond the rewards, the enhanced app introduces a Regal Premium Lifestyle Subscription that offers users access to curated lifestyle benefits across travel, dining, and entertainment, plus a three-month free transfer for new-to-bank customers.

Customers can now access mutual fund investments directly within the app, helping them grow wealth without multiple platforms. This feature reinforces FCMB’s commitment to empowering customers with accessible financial tools.

To improve customer experience, the app now includes “Chat with Temi”, an intelligent in-app support feature that delivers instant assistance and quicker issue resolution.

Speaking on the update, Oladipo Alabede, divisional head, Payments and Solutions, said: “At FCMB, we are constantly innovating to meet the evolving needs of our customers. These features are designed to provide convenience, reward loyalty, and empower our customers to do more with their finances, right from their mobile devices.”

In line with its financial inclusion drive, FCMB has simplified account upgrades from Tier 1 to Tier 2, allowing customers to access enhanced banking services without visiting a branch.

Additionally, the introduction of instant virtual card request and activation ensures customers can immediately create and use secure digital cards for online transactions.

Adetunji Lamidi, divisional head, Personal Banking, emphasised the Bank’s digital transformation journey: “These upgrades reflect our technology-driven strategy to build a smarter, more intuitive banking platform. By integrating intelligent support systems like Temi and enabling instant services such as virtual card activation, we are redefining convenience and accessibility in banking.”

This comprehensive upgrade reflects FCMB’s ongoing commitment to innovation, customer focus, and digital excellence, positioning the mobile app as a one-stop platform for seamless, rewarding, and future-ready banking.

Customers are encouraged to update or download the FCMB Mobile App today from their app store to use these new features and take full control of their financial journey.

 


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E-Financial

Despite Warnings, FG Draws Down $1.5Bn as First Tranche of FAB $5Bn Loan Deal

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Nigeria has accessed the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), drawing about $1.5 billion under the deal approved by the national assembly in March.

Despite Warnings, FG Draws Down $1.5Bn as First Tranche of FAB $5Bn Loan Deal

This is despite caution by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  against proceeding with the proposed $5 billion structured Total Return Swap (TRS) financing program with First Abu Dhabi Bank.

IMF said that the complex derivative-based financing agreements are often opaque and carry hidden financial risks.

According to Bloomberg on Friday however, the federal government received the funds in the past two weeks through a structured total return swap (TRS) transaction with the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender, citing people familiar with the matter.

On March 31, the national assembly approved President Bola Tinubu’s request to secure up to $6 billion in external borrowing.

The borrowing plan comprised two facilities from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United Kingdom, including a structured TRS financing programme of up to $5 billion from First Abu Dhabi Bank.

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Tinubu had said the proposed borrowing would increase Nigeria’s public debt stock, which stood at $110.3 billion (about N159.2 trillion) as of December 31, 2025.

The drawdown comes despite concerns raised by Fitch Ratings over the financing arrangement.

Fitch warned that while such transactions can provide liquidity, diversify funding sources and lower borrowing costs, they often fall outside conventional debt-reporting frameworks and could weaken transparency and legislative oversight.

The rating agency also said the structure could expose Nigeria to additional foreign exchange risks if domestic bond yields rise or the naira depreciates.

Also, the International Monetary Fund has cautioned that the derivative-based financing arrangements are often opaque and complex, making it difficult to assess the full extent of governments’ debt obligations.


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E-Financial

Paystack Unveils AI-powered Payments Tools

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Paystack has launched Paystack Index, an experimental AI-powered payments tool, enabling users in Nigeria to complete everyday transactions through AI assistants such as ChatGPT and Claude.

The product allows users to buy airtime, send money via Zap by Paystack and order food from Chowdeck using simple text prompts. Instead of switching between multiple apps, users can instruct an AI assistant to execute transactions directly.

Paystack Index acts as a bridge between AI agents, merchants and Paystack’s payments infrastructure, while ensuring users retain control of authorised transactions.

The company said it does not store sensitive financial information such as card details, PINs or bank account credentials.

Developed with support from TSG Labs, Paystack’s innovation arm, the product builds on Paystack Checkout and Zap and forms part of the company’s broader work on AI-enabled commerce.

It is initially available to selected Zap users in Nigeria through an early-access beta programme and currently supports airtime and data purchases, wallet funding, money transfers and food orders.

Paystack said the launch reflects its belief that AI agents are emerging as a new interface for commerce, enabling users to move from prompts to real-world transactions.

Announced by co-founder and chief executive officer Shola Akinlade, the product positions AI assistants as execution layers for payments and commerce, rather than just tools for information and recommendations.

The launch comes amid rising AI adoption in Nigeria. According to a Google-Ipsos survey, 88% of Nigerians surveyed said they had used generative AI in the past year, while 62% said they used it for everyday tasks such as planning trips, meals or workouts.

The launch also follows Paystack’s recent restructuring under The Stack Group (TSG), which created dedicated business units for merchant payments, consumer transactions, banking services and emerging technologies.

Paystack plans to expand Paystack Index to more merchants, services and African markets, including Ghana, Kenya and South Africa, as it evaluates user behaviour and AI-powered checkout experiences.


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