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Opinion: Will Nigeria Shock the Global Arena in H2?

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The largest economy in Africa has certainly had a presence in the third quarter of 2017. Investors across the globe are becoming increasingly optimistic over Nigeria’s economic outlook, as the nation mitigates internal risks, while breaking away from oil reliance.

Signs of recovery and momentum can already be viewed across Gross Domestic Growth and falling inflation, while foreign exchange has experienced an evolution.

With the ingredients for Nigeria to rattle the global arena in H2 already bubbling in the cauldron, an economic rebound by the end of the year is becoming a firm possibility.

As we head into the final trading month of Q3, market players will closely scrutinise core data such as inflation and GDP, which have the ability to boost sentiment further, if both exceed market expectations.

Nigeria’s foreign exchange crisis remains an obstacle on the road to recovery. While the timely implementation of the Investors and Exporters (FX) Window is likely to boost confidence over Nigeria’s outlook, this is only the first step.

With the NAFEX increasing the supply of foreign exchange into the largest economy in Africa, investors are likely to be magnetized, consequently adding another layer of stability to the FX markets.

The Central Bank of Nigeria may be commended on its ability to unify some of their multiple exchanges, by letting dealers quote the Naira levels used in trades, but more transparency is still needed.

For Nigeria to abolish its multiple exchanges and truly have an official exchange rate, it will require an official devaluation, which President Muhammadu Buhari has repeatedly rejected.

While a devaluation of the Naira is likely to accelerate inflation and punish Nigerians at home, it will increase transparency and ultimately boost foreign direct investment, which could in turn fuel economic growth.

Speaking of the Naira, the local currency currently trades around 370 to the Dollar on the parallel exchange.

Although the implementation of NAFEX has weakened prices noticeably, the currency still continues to hold ground against a broadly weaker Dollar. Further intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria, coupled with confidence over Nigeria’s economic recovery, is likely to support the local currency further this year.

Market players will continue to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise US interest rates, which have the power to strengthen the Dollar – consequently punishing emerging market currencies.

While Nigeria has taken steps to shield itself from internal shocks, the threat of capital outflows from a resurgent Dollar is still an issue that cannot be overlooked. Focusing on the technical outlook, repeated Dollar weakness could send the USDNGN towards 350 on the parallel markets.

With inflation in Nigeria following a negative trajectory, economic fundamentals stabilizing and foreign exchange displaying early signs of transparency, the Central bank of Nigeria is likely to remain in sharp focus.

While the intricate combination of falling oil prices, decelerating economic growth and a currency crisis initially encouraged the CBN to remain on standby, the current economic landscape has morphed for the better.

The clock is ticking for the central bank to make a move with an interest rate cut, as cooling inflation and improving core fundamentals indicate signs of stability.

The outlook for oil remains a significant economic factor for Nigeria, especially when considering how the commodity impacts the nation’s government revenues and stability of foreign exchange markets.

WTI Crude has struggled to maintain gains in August, with prices pressured below $50, as the oversupply concerns weighed on sentiment. This has been an interesting and volatile period for oil markets, with the commodity trapped in a tough tug of war, as conflicting data attracts both the bulls and bears.

Despite OPEC’s optimism over the production cut deal continues to spark speculative boosts in prices, reports of compliance slumping in July and output jumping to a 2017 high in the same month, excited bears.

This battle of attrition may be coming to a finale, with oil’s bearish action suggesting that investors are becoming increasingly skeptical of the cartel’s ability to rebalance the markets.

Nigeria has the ability to bounce back from an economic deceleration and break away from oil reliance but the right steps must be taken.

The developments in August are already highly encouraging with the implementation of NAFEX increasing foreign exchange transparency and putting investors at ease. As we head into the final month of Q3, market players are likely to become more dependent on data to gauge the nation’s economic health.

Sentiment towards the Nigerian economy continues to improve amid the stabilizing fundamentals, with the Central Bank of Nigeria cutting interest rates to support growth further if all the boxes are ticked.


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E-Financial

Nigeria, Others Lose $88bn Yearly to Illicit Flows —Edun

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Wale Edun, minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, has raised concern over Africa’s mounting revenue losses, warning that the continent forfeits an estimated $88 billion annually to illicit financial flows (IFFs), a development he described as a critical threat to sustainable growth.

Nigeria, Others Lose $88bn Yearly to Illicit Flows —Edun

Speaking at the 5th Session of the Sub-Committee on Tax and Illicit Financial Flows of the African Union, in Abuja, Mr Edun said the persistent outflows continue to deprive African countries of vital resources required for infrastructure, healthcare, and overall economic development.

The high-level meeting, held at Transcorp Hilton Abuja, brought together policymakers, tax administrators, and development partners to examine strategies for strengthening fiscal systems amid evolving global economic uncertainties.

Mr Edun stressed the need for African countries to reduce reliance on external financing sources such as debt, aid, and foreign investment, noting that these options are becoming increasingly unpredictable. He maintained that domestic resource mobilisation must serve as the foundation for long-term economic sustainability.

“Our ambition is to finance up to 90 per cent of Africa’s development needs from domestic resources,” he said, referencing the continent’s Agenda 2063 development framework.

He identified structural challenges, including tax evasion, weak institutional capacity, and limited economic diversification, as key impediments, while emphasising that curbing illicit financial flows remains central to unlocking Africa’s fiscal potential.

Highlighting ongoing reforms under President Bola Tinubu, Mr Edun noted that measures such as tax system reforms, fuel subsidy removal, and exchange rate unification are beginning to improve revenue performance and boost investor confidence.

He added that initiatives like the National Single Window are helping to reduce trade-related leakages, while enhanced international tax cooperation is supporting efforts to recover lost revenues. He also cited Executive Order 9 as a key policy aimed at strengthening transparency in the oil and gas sector.

Calling for broader continental action, Mr Edun urged African nations to expand their tax base, strengthen public financial management systems, and deepen financial inclusion. He listed institutional strengthening, digital infrastructure investment, and cross-border collaboration as critical reform priorities.

“The question is no longer whether we must reform, but how urgently and how boldly we act,” he said, warning that failure to act could leave African economies exposed to external shocks.

On his part, Mr Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), called for urgent steps to safeguard domestic resources and address widening financing gaps across the continent.

Mr Adedeji noted that illicit financial flows ranging from tax evasion and trade mispricing to aggressive tax avoidance continue to weaken Africa’s capacity to fund critical sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, and education.

“Every year, billions meant for development are lost through illegal financial transfers. These are lost hospitals, lost schools, and lost opportunities,” he said.

He stressed that the cross-border nature of illicit flows requires coordinated responses at both national and continental levels, adding that Nigeria is pursuing reforms to modernise revenue administration through expanded tax coverage, improved compliance, and digital innovation.

According to him, efficient and transparent tax systems are essential not only for revenue generation but also for strengthening public trust in government institutions.

 


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CBN Says 33 Banks Raise Fresh N4.65 Trillion in Recapitalisation Exercise

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced the successful conclusion of the banking sector recapitalisation programme initiated in March 2024.

CBN Says 33 Banks Raise Fresh N4.65 Trillion in Recapitalisation Exercise

Over the 24-month period, Nigerian banks raised a total of N4.65 trillion in new capital, strengthening the resilience of the financial system and enhancing its capacity to support the economy, according to a statement that was issued by CBN on Wednesday.

The programme recorded strong participation from both domestic and international investors, with 72.55 per cent of capital sourced locally and 27.45 per cent from international markets, reflecting sustained confidence in the Nigerian banking sector.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said: “The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”

The CBN confirmed that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme. A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.

All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.

The apex bank stated that the programme has strengthened capital adequacy ratios (CAR), with the sector maintaining levels above international Basel benchmarks.

Minimum CAR thresholds remain at 10 per cent for regional and national banks and 15 per cent for banks with international authorisation.

The recapitalisation, implemented alongside an orderly exit from regulatory forbearance, has improved asset quality, reinforcing balance sheet transparency and overall financial system stability.

To safeguard the gains, the CBN said it has strengthened its risk-based capital adequacy framework, requiring banks to conduct regular stress testing across defined scenarios and maintain appropriate capital buffers.

It stated that key regulatory measures, including prudential guidelines and the supervisory framework, are subject to periodic review to support ongoing strengthening of governance, risk management and sector resilience.

The recapitalisation programme was carried out without disruption to banking services, ensuring continuous access for individuals and businesses throughout the process.

The successful completion of the programme establishes a stronger and more resilient banking system, better positioned to support lending, mobilise savings, and withstand domestic and global shocks, the CBN said in the statement that was issued by Olubukola A. Akinwunmi, director, banking supervision, and Hakama Ali, acting director, corporate communications.

“The Central Bank of Nigeria remains committed to maintaining a stable, transparent, and resilient financial system that inspires confidence among depositors, investors, and the broader public, and to advancing the sustainability of the nation’s financial architecture,” the statement read in part.


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Rising Fraud Threatens Nigeria’s Digital Banking Gains — Experts

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Nigeria’s fast-growing digital banking ecosystem is facing increasing scrutiny over consumer safety, as rising fraud cases and weak redress mechanisms threaten to erode public trust in the sector.

Rising Fraud Threatens Nigeria’s Digital Banking Gains — Experts

Over the past decade, Nigeria has witnessed a remarkable shift from cash-based transactions to digital financial services, driven by mobile banking applications, instant transfers and Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) platforms.

Industry data show that Point-of-Sale (POS) transactions rose to a record N18 trillion in 2024, representing a 69 per cent increase year-on-year, while the number of deployed POS terminals more than doubled to 5.5 million nationwide.

Mobile banking has also emerged as the most widely used digital financial channel, with about four in five Nigerians reportedly accessing such services within a 90-day period.

Analysts say the growth reflects significant progress in financial inclusion and technology adoption, but warn that the expansion has exposed gaps in consumer protection.

According to a 2024 Nigeria Consumer Protection Survey by Innovations for Poverty Action, nearly one in four users of digital financial services reported experiencing unexpected charges, hidden fees or fraud attempts within the past year.

The report further indicated that only about half of affected users pursued formal complaints, a trend experts attribute to declining confidence in dispute resolution processes.

Data from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) also highlight growing risks, with fraud-related losses rising to N52.26 billion in 2024.

Although the number of reported fraud cases declined, stakeholders note that the scale of losses per incident has increased significantly, suggesting more sophisticated and high-impact attacks.

Experts identify social engineering as the most prevalent fraud method, relying on deception rather than complex technology to exploit unsuspecting customers.

They also warn that insider involvement remains a critical concern, with cases of internal compromise posing systemic risks to the integrity of financial institutions.

The development, according to analysts, underscores a widening gap between the rapid expansion of digital banking infrastructure and the pace of consumer protection frameworks.

“Convenience and security must evolve together. When one outpaces the other, it creates vulnerabilities that fraudsters can exploit,” a financial analyst said.

Regulators, however, have taken steps to address the challenges.

Nigeria’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2025 signalled improvements in the country’s financial safeguards.

In addition, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced risk-based cybersecurity frameworks for deposit money banks in 2024, setting stricter standards for managing digital risks.

Industry-wide enforcement has also intensified, with regulatory penalties reportedly exceeding N15 billion in 2024, reinforcing compliance with consumer protection rules.

Within the banking sector, institutions are increasingly investing in advanced security systems designed to monitor transactions in real time, detect anomalies and prevent fraud before it occurs.

Analysts note that such proactive measures, though largely invisible to customers, play a critical role in safeguarding digital transactions.

The experience of Union Bank of Nigeria illustrates this approach, with the bank reporting strong customer satisfaction across its digital platforms, including mobile banking, USSD services and enterprise solutions.

Observers attribute this performance to sustained investment in backend security infrastructure, proactive fraud monitoring systems and a corporate culture that prioritises customer protection.

Industry stakeholders agree that trust remains the cornerstone of banking, particularly in a digital environment where transactions are increasingly intangible.

They warn that without sustained improvements in security, transparency and accountability, the gains recorded in financial inclusion could be undermined.

As Nigeria continues to expand its digital financial ecosystem, experts say the next phase of growth must prioritise safety alongside convenience to ensure long-term sustainability.

“Digital banking has transformed access to financial services in Nigeria, but its future will depend on how well institutions protect the people who rely on it,” an industry stakeholder said.


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