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Expert causions Nigeria on Adherence to its Oil Cap

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Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, an award-winning international forex broker has described Nigeria’s 2020 revenue targets as highly optimistic if the country could maintain its projected oil production cap of 2.8 million barrels per day.

 

Otunuga described some of the revenue targets set by the executive arm of government as ‘quite ambitious’, while noting also that the revenue targets of the budget would expose the country to external risks.

 

He made these remarks while speaking with journalists in Lagos, referring to the last time Nigeria consistently produced more than two million barrels of oil per day was 2013, hence setting the budget target at 2.18 million barrels per day was ‘overly optimistic’.

 

In his words: “When we look at the 2020 budget, looking at the numbers, government expenditure is going to be N10.33 trillion, revenue target N8.155 trillion, that leaves a deficit of N2.18 trillion, already, that alone, Nigeria will have to finance that debt domestically or externally — that’s the first weight on the economy,” he said.

 

“Secondly, I feel the major talking point is oil because if you look at the numbers, Nigeria is projecting $57 oil in 2020 average and to pump 2.18million barrels a day, if you look at the oil market, you will know that it is very difficult for oil to push high due to demands side dynamics.

 

“Concerns of slowing global growth, rise in production from US shale, rise in crude oil inventories in the United States, you know when you put all of these together, 57 is quite ambitious for oil.

 

“At the same time, if you look at Nigeria’s oil production, in August, Nigeria produced about 1.86 million barrels roughly, but Nigeria pledged OPEC to keep oil production down around roughly 1.7 million barrels per day and if you look deeper, the last time Nigeria was able to produce over two million barrels a day according to OPEC was back in 2013.

 

“We haven’t seen over two million barrels a day for almost six years, so how are we going to get that amount in 2020. So when you look at the figures, oil revenue accounts for N2.6 trillion, already if you are unable to meet the revenue, it is going to impact the implementation of the budget.”

 

Otunuga spoke passionately about the diversification of the economy. This, according to him, is one sure way the government can meet up with it buoyant economic pursuit.

 

He said, “On diversification, it is so bad that even IMF is telling Nigeria that they need to do more with it; the fact that 90 percent of foreign exchange is still from oil and 70 percent of government’s expenditure is still from oil.

 

“So where is the diversification? I think when we start seeing less foreign exchange earnings coming from oil and government being less reliant on oil, then we can say diversification is kicking in.

 

“The budget itself on paper has the ability to elevate Nigeria’s economy but meeting those spending targets is the question. If Nigeria is able to meet the targets, the outlook is positive.

 

“But let me say the repeat of 2019 budget, where even recent reports have shown that government’s spending target is only about 58 percent, it is still going to be the same; we have a budget and it is not reflecting on the economy.”

 

The Senior Research Analyst at FXTM however, extolled the Executive and the legislative arms of Government for seeking to reset the budget cycle to run from January to December 2020, away from the irregular budget cycles of the past.

 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

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Stakeholders in the banking and financial ecosystem, yesterday, decried the surge in cyber fraud as Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) lost N10 billion in the second quarter of 2023, representing almost 300 per cent year-on-year compared to the previous year.

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

At a Mastercard forum convened to tackle fraud and cybersecurity threats in the financial sector, Kari Tukur, vice president, Customer Solutions Centre, East and West Africa at Mastercard, said despite the massive awareness and innovations aimed at combating cybersecurity, the amount lost last year by DBMs was “staggering”.

She said, “With Nigeria’s rapidly growing economic expansion, we are starting to see an increase in the adoption of digital financial services, and the financial landscape is also evolving at an astronomical speed.

“What was staggering for me was in spite of the huge investment around innovation, funding in the cyber space, DBMs lost almost N10bn in Q2 last year, and that was almost 300 per cent growth year-on-year when compared to the previous year.”

She noted that there was the need for collaboration among stakeholders “to combat this rising sophistication of cyber security threat.”

Tukur further stated that Mastercard was deeply committed to cyber security and fraud prevention within the payment industry, disclosing that the company invested $250m “to assist small businesses in addressing their cyber security needs.”

She disclosed that Mastercard payment portals incorporated multiple layers of security such as tokenisation technology, encryption and biometrical to stay ahead of cyber attackers.

She added that, “The sector continues to struggle with the aforementioned challenges, necessitating vigilance, proactive action and comprehensive security strategy, and Mastercard remains committed to providing safe, secure and seamless payment services and experiences for our partners and customers in Nigeria and beyond.”

Celestina Appeal, chairman, Committee of e-Business Industry Heads (CeBIH), stated that the total loss to the banking industry in the last couple of years totalled hundreds of billions of naira while Nigeria’s Consumer Awareness and Financial Enlightenment Initiative had projected a $6trn loss by 2030 to cybercrime within and outside Nigeria.

Represented by Mr Temitope Onibaniyi, secretary of the committee, she stated that the committee was ever-willing to collaborate with industry stakeholders to fight against the perpetrators who “constantly rob banks and other stakeholders in the payments industry of their hard-earned money.”

She said the need for collaboration could not be overemphasised as no individual organisation was immune to cyber security attacks.

 

 


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E-Financial

Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

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President Bola Tinubu has approved the appointment of some Nigerian professionals to the Board of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

This is contained in a statement issued by Ajuri Ngelale, special adviser to the President on Media and Publicity.

Tinubu appointed Mr. Mairiga Aliyu Katuka  as the Chairman of the board of SEC, while Mr. Emomotimi Agama has been appointed as the  Director-General of the board.

The president also appointed Frana Chukwuogor  as Executive Commissioner (Legal and Enforcement) of the board.

Tinubu further appointed Mr. Bola Ajomale as the Executive Commissioner (Operations) of the board, while Mrs. Samiya Hassan Usman is the Executive Commissioner (Corporate Services) of the board.

Also appointed into the board are Mr. Lekan Belo as Non-Executive Commissioner and Mr. Kasimu Garba Kurfi as Non-Executive Commissioner.

According to Ngelale, the president anticipated that “all members of the Board of this critical commission will bring to bear their wealth of experience and competence in advancing the commission’s core mandate of developing and regulating a capital market that is dynamic, fair, transparent, and efficient, to bolster investor confidence and contribute immeasurably to the nation’s economic development.”


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E-Financial

Ecobank Repays $500m Eurobond

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Ecobank has announced the successful repayment of its $500 million five-year Eurobond issued in 2019. According to a statement filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), the Eurobond garnered considerable interest from a diverse range of global investors, including long-term development partners such as FMO and Proparco, who served as anchor investors.

Commenting on this achievement, Ecobank Group Financial Officer, Ayo Adepoju, said: “The bond was listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange with a coupon rate of 9.5 per cent. The principal and interest repayment, totalling $524 million, was distributed to bondholders through the transaction agent on the bond maturity date of April 18, 2024.

“This inaugural bond we are retiring today was critical in introducing our firm to a wider array of global investors and contributed to the increased visibility of our brand in the capital markets.”

Against the backdrop of challenges posed by the global operating environment, including disruptions in the world supply chain and financial markets, Adepoju highlighted the Group’s resilience. He cited strong liquidity, a robust balance sheet, and a solid leadership team as key factors enabling Ecobank’s success.

He added that the successful repayment of the Eurobond underscores Ecobank’s commitment to financial stability and investor confidence, positioning the firm for continued growth and success in the global market.

 


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