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Q2 outlook for Oil & What it means for the Nigerian Economy

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By Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst,

Q2 Outlook – WTI Oil: Near 30% rally in Oil so far this year unjustifiable

The near 30% rally in WTI Oil during the first quarter of 2019 is difficult to justify when taking into account the progressive concerns that are mounting regarding a global economic downturn. The rally has been supported by improved market confidence that efforts from OPEC+ have tightened the supply in the market, but whether this encouraging sentiment can continue would likely depend on whether Russia continues to support production cuts.

As such, a result to an unprecedented 30% rally over the last quarter, the commodity is going to enter the new quarter as a prime contender to suffer from a market correction. The probability is high that fears over a deceleration in world economic momentum will only get louder as the year progresses, meaning Oil investors will need to re-assess into expectations what impact a global slowdown will have on future demand. A plethora of evidence through data releases from different economies across the globe has already pointed out that a downturn in growth is impending – if the slowdown hasn’t already arrived.

Market perception is that OPEC cuts are working but demand outlook at risk

One of the major risks for the price of Oil in the second quarter is the increased probability that world economic forecasts for 2019 will be revised lower. While a great volume of noise in the Oil atmosphere is created around headlines involving production, OPEC or even more recently OPEC+, it often gets underlooked just how important Oil demand is for its valuation. Reduced demand is a negative for Oil price and the prospect of further lower demand on global economic health fears will risk re-igniting oversupply concerns that have dominated headlines since the spectacular price crash first occurred in 2014, despite repeated measures and attempts by OPEC and co to rebalance the market.

Iran waivers a wildcard, Saudi Arabia to remain committed to output cuts

If you were to take the contrarian view, there are a few reasons to remain optimistic that Oil can resume its price rebound in Q2. This would however, include some unpredictable risk elements around politics for a commodity that has historically behaved with an extreme level of sensitivity to politics.

Waivers on Iranian sanctions are set to expire over the coming months and if President Trump adopts a hardline approach that results in the taps for Iranian Oil supply being turned off, the subsequent change in the production outlook would prove tempting for potential buyers. Venezuela is another market that has come under the threat of sanctions following recent domestic unrest, while suspicions remain that Saudi Arabia will maintain its underlying commitment towards tightening the available supply of Oil to achieve stronger valuations to help the Kingdom achieve its fiscal targets.

Do not underestimate risk Trump speaking against Oil rally will have on future outlook

Another factor that needs to be taken into account when factoring in potential risks that can swing the hammer of the Oil price in either direction is President Trump.

The President of the United States has made it perfectly clear on numerous occasions that his desire is for Oil prices to return to lower levels for a prolonged period. He has already commented via social media feeds that the Oil price is too high and while he might not be President of a nation that is either a traditional member of OPEC nor OPEC+, he carries the ability to influence world financial markets.  When it comes to President Trump’s influence on financial markets it is never an occasion that investors can prepare for when it will happen, but Trump has proven in office that he has a tendency of getting his way in the end, and I would personally not want to be on the wrong side of the trade when the President of the United States is demanding for lower Oil valuations.

What does this all mean for the Nigerian economy?

Although Nigeria remains on a quest to diversify away from Oil reliance, a handsome chunk of the nation’s export earnings is from Oil sales. While rising Oil prices will boost government revenues, provide foreign exchange stability and support economic growth, it leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks. With robust production from US Shale stimulating oversupply concerns and fears around slowing global growth potentially impacting demand, Oil’s upside seems limited. If Oil prices end up depreciating back below $60 in Q2, this will not only impact growth prospects but also Nigeria’s efforts to support its 2019 budget. The ramifications of such a development will most likely complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to cut rates further in an effort to boost economic growth. However, further signs of Nigeria breaking away from Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth such as agriculture have the potential to limit shocks created from Oil volatility.

WTI knocking on the door at $60, but is anyone home?

Focusing on the technical picture, WTI Crude has reached tough resistance on the monthly charts with $60 acting as a barrier for bulls preventing prices by being pushed higher. The $60 level ironically also reflects the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the October – December 2018 downtrend, which helps explain why we are noticing a trend of selling pressure jumping back in the market close to $60.

Until Oil is able to secure a decisive monthly close above $60, it looks like a ceiling is in place for Oil bulls and selling rallies below this level is going to remain as a tempting strategy for bearish investors. A weekly close below $56 will act as a signal for further downside with $52, $50 and $47.80 acting as key points of interest.

If prices are able to conquer $60, Oil has scope to challenge $65.

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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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Moniepoint Marks 10 Years of Transforming Nigerian Businesses

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Moniepoint Inc., Nigeria’s definitive platform for small businesses and Africa’s all-in-one financial ecosystem, today released its 2025 Year in Review, marking a decade of “financial happiness” and a transformative year of growth.

Moniepoint Marks 10 Years of Transforming Nigerian Businesses

Moniepoint

Highlighting its role as the backbone of Nigeria’s entrepreneurial economy with over 6 million active businesses, the company revealed that its microfinance bank has now disbursed over ₦1 trillion in credit to thousands of businesses from provision stores and supermarkets to building materials sellers.

It is worthy to note that on average these businesses experienced growth by more than 36% after accessing credit, signposting its primacy as a transformational growth level and instrument of deepening shared prosperity.

Moniepoint uses alternative data points that include transaction histories, business patterns and payment behaviours in a bid to accommodate what traditional credit scoring misses to drive financial inclusion and access to credit.

The company’s 2025 performance reinforces its role as a critical financial infrastructure which not only supports the Nigerian economy, but also impacts everyday lives, creating immense value.

Founded in 2015 by Tosin Eniolorunda and Felix Ike, Moniepoint Inc (formerly known as TeamApt Inc) has established itself as the leading financial platform for Nigeria’s vast network of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs), offering an integrated suite of services, including digital payments, business bank accounts, credit, foreign exchange (FX), and management tools.

During the year, as Nigeria’s largest merchant acquirer, now powering 8 out of every 10 in-person payments made across the country, Moniepoint MFB, the banking and payments subsidiary, processed ₦412 trillion in transaction value handling more than 14 billion transactions. This clearly suggests that Moniepoint is well-positioned to play a greater role in Nigeria’s steady march towards a trillion dollar economy by 2030.

“Our journey has been one of intentional evolution,” said Tosin Eniolorunda, Group CEO and Founder of Moniepoint Inc. “What started as a passion to solve overlooked problems has evolved into a platform powering the dreams of millions.

“As 83% of employment in Africa exists in the informal economy, our mission to create financial happiness is an operational mandate that guides our product development, our market expansion, and our capital allocation decisions.”

Beaming with enthusiasm, Eniolorunda continues, “Yet for all we have accomplished, we approach our second decade with the clarity that our work remains unfinished.

“As we enter this next chapter, we do so with strengthened conviction in our strategy, deepened partnerships with world-class institutional investors, and an organisation scaled to deliver on Africa’s entrepreneurial potential.

“The infrastructure we have built over the past decade provides the foundation. The journey is far from over, but our resolve has never been stronger. To our partners, our customers, and our team: thank you for a decade of impact. We are just getting started.”

In 2025, Moniepoint Inc. reached a series of critical inflexion points, highlighted by the successful completion of its Series C funding round, which raised over $200 million in equity financing from leading institutional investors, including Development Partners International, Google’s Africa Investment Fund, Visa, the International Finance Corporation, and Verod Capital.

The year also marked the launch of MonieWorld in the United Kingdom, extending Moniepoint’s platform to serve the African diaspora by strengthening key remittance corridors and laying the foundation for the delivery of comprehensive cross-border financial services.

Moniepoint MFB re-launched its savings product in a firm demonstration of the company’s commitment toward its’ oft stated mantra of providing financial happiness. Data reveals in terms of savings behavioral patterns, the majority of users choose to save on a daily basis, with focus across business operations (24%), rent (16.5%), and education (10%) representing top savings priorities.

The launch of Moniebook and the acquisition of a national Microfinance Bank license for Moniepoint MFB further expand the company’s regulated capabilities and product depth.

TeamApt Ltd, the switching and processing subsidiary of Moniepoint Inc., also achieved major regulatory and operational milestones in 2025 that have solidified its position in the global payments landscape. After a rigorous certification process, the company successfully secured licenses from Mastercard and Visa to act as a processor and acquirer for these global card schemes..

This strategic move allows TeamApt to support international card payments directly and offer these critical switching services to other businesses across the continent.

Monnify, the web payment gateway processed N25 trillion in the period under review, demonstrating remarkable resilience and industry confidence firmly positioning it for more business-to-business transactions.

Moniepoint’s impact extended beyond banking into critical social interventions even as the company partnered with the Federal Government to support the Rice Intervention Programme, reaching nearly 850,000 beneficiaries, and worked with the Kaduna State Government in grants disbursement to vulnerable citizens.

Through these initiatives, Moniepoint continues to build the infrastructure required to unlock Africa’s entrepreneurial potential, positioning itself as a trusted partner for the delivery of large-scale economic empowerment programmes.

As Moniepoint Inc. enters its second decade, its well chronicled decade-long evolution from a backend technology provider to a household name, directly complements the Nigerian government’s vision of a more inclusive, data-driven, and productive financial landscape. To read more about the 2025 Year in Review Report:, visit http://2025.moniepoint.com


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MTN Group Names Shoyinka Shodunke IT Core Design Executive Ahead of March 2026

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MTN Group has announced the appointment of Shoyinka Shodunke as Executive: IT Core Design and Delivery, effective 1 March 2026.

MTN Group Names Shoyinka Shodunke IT Core Design Executive Ahead of March 2026

Shoyinka Shodunke

Shoyinka brings more than 29 years of experience in technology leadership, digital transformation and innovation across Africa’s telecommunications sector.

His career spans several senior roles, including Director of Technology at Vodafone Ghana, Chief Technology and Information Officer (CTIO) at MTN Cameroon, Chief Information Officer (CIO) at MTN Zambia, and General Manager: Architecture for the MTN Shared Services Hub in Southeast Africa.

He currently serves concurrently as CIO for MTN Nigeria and MTN South Africa, where he has led large-scale digital initiatives impacting more than 80 million subscribers and overseen a technology ecosystem comprising over 350 professionals.

Shoyinka is recognised for a leadership approach anchored in adaptive intelligence, resilient system design and collaborative value creation.

His work has focused on leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance human creativity, strengthen system resilience and drive innovation at scale.

In 2025, he was named MTN Group CIO of the Year for his role in advancing one of Africa’s most ambitious digital transformations, supporting MTN’s evolution from a traditional telecommunications operator into an AI-enabled technology organisation.

He also received the Tech Champion in Telecoms and CIO of the Year awards at the CIO and C-Suite Awards Africa.

His academic background includes an Advanced Management Programme (AMP) at Harvard Business School, an MBA from the University of Northampton, a Postgraduate Diploma in Global Management from the University of Salford Manchester, and a Bachelor of Technology in Mathematics and Statistics from the Federal University of Technology in Nigeria.

In his new role, Shoyinka will lead the development and execution of standardised and AI-enhanced IT architectures across MTN’s footprint.

His responsibilities will include integrating AI-driven automation, predictive analytics and digital transformation initiatives to improve customer experience, operational efficiency and service agility, while accelerating innovation cycles and time-to-market.


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Kaspersky Reveals How Digitalisation is Influencing Family Life

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Kaspersky’s latest global research shows that mostly all people currently interact with their family members digitally: 86% of all participants communicate with family via messaging apps, 58% have regular video calls, and 44% have even established joint streaming service accounts.

While digitalisation offers unprecedented convenience and flexibility in family communication, Kaspersky experts warn that this increased online connectivity demands a heightened awareness of digital safety practices and the protection of devices.

Communication in the digital sphere has become an integral part of everyday life. Thanks to video calls and instant messaging, we can maintain connections with our loved ones, no matter where we are.

Digitalisation has reshaped not only how we communicate, but also how we spend our free time together. Kaspersky has conducted a survey* to reveal the common patterns of modern family life in the digital age and discover the cybersecurity challenges that lurk beneath our screen interactions.

Cyber safety during family communication

According to the survey, regular messaging via WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal, Viber and other messenger apps were top of users’ choices when communicating with their families.

People in the 35-54 age group were the most likely to engage this way, with 89% of respondents choosing this option. Video calls were a much less popular option among respondents as a way of keeping in touch with relatives, with only 58% choosing this digital solution.

Another popular way of staying connected online for many families is exchanging posts and memes on social media and messengers (53%). The 18-34 age group leads this trend with a 58% participation rate, showcasing how humor and shared cultural references are becoming essential family bonding mechanisms.

The older generation (above 55 years old) is in general less digitally engaged than other ages, though the share of those who chat with their families in messengers is on par with the average (85%). 42% of this age group even exchange memes and posts via social media.

Despite the fact that older people are more active in the digital sphere, they may still not be ready to face cyber threats and scams. Users should therefore educate their older relatives on how to stay safe online and use gadgets securely.

Even for advanced users, communication online carries potential cyber security risks. From phishing attempts disguised as legitimate messages to sophisticated social engineering attacks, the digital battlefield operates within our most personal communication channels.

To ensure the complex protection for your messengers it’s highly recommended to enable two-factor authentication where possible, use unique, complex passwords for each account, remain skeptical of unexpected links or attachments, use a reliable security solution with anti-phishing protection for messengers and follow security tips from Kaspersky experts.

Family accounts – convenience or risk?

The survey shows that in their free time 70% of families choose to watch movies together, with 44% having family streaming accounts. Online games do not have such popularity as a family pastime, with only 35% of general respondents opting for them.

While sharing streaming subscriptions and gaming accounts may seem like a cost-effective solution, it opens the door to a host of digital vulnerabilities that can compromise your family’s security and privacy, especially when an account is used by different family members under the same login and password. Such accounts create a perfect storm for security breaches.

If one family member’s device is compromised, hackers gain access to the entire account. Additionally, password reuse across multiple platforms means that a single breach could expose your financial information, email accounts, and other sensitive data. To manage all passwords securely, it’s highly recommended to use a password manager for all family members.

“As our family life moves more and more online, it opens up amazing ways to stay close and create memories – but it also brings new risks, like scams and hacking. Kids and older relatives can be especially at risk, so looking out for each other online is really important.

“Protecting your digital privacy and using cybersecurity measures is an important way to care for your loved ones and keep your family safe”, comments Marina Titova, Vice President for Consumer Business at Kaspersky.


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