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Scary! Get Ready for $10 a Barrel Oil

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This is a very bad time for oil dependent country like Nigeria because a scary analysis in Bloomberg by Gary Shilling has predicted a further tumble in oil price,

According to Shilling, at about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107.

They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20.

Here’s why.

U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009.

That’s about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan.

Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.

At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased U.S. production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling.

U.S. output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 percent.

Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas.

For the cartel to function, its leader — in this case, Saudi Arabia — must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.

So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources — Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters.

On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldn’t cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.

What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.

Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than $40 a barrel.

Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isn’t necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 percent of new U.S. shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: It’s the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.

Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel.

That suggests there won’t be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient U.S. shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.

Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.

With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now.

Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it’s the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraq’s recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.

While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.

Although the 40 percent decline in U.S. gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever.

At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.

So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices.

 


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Identy.io Targets Nigeria, Kenya in Its Africa Expansion Strategy

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Nigeria and Kenya are the next target markets for Identy.io, a global provider of digital identities, as it expands into Africa. Facial, fingerprint, and palm identification are among the safe, mobile biometrics that the company specialises in.

According to Indenty.io, its platform runs locally on smartphones, eliminating cloud storage while maintaining security and privacy.

It goes to say this is achieved by leveraging standard smartphones for fingerprint and face scans, the company aims to bridge the continent’s digital divide, where a significant number of adults still lack basic identification.

To spearhead this rollout, the firm has appointed a specialised regional leadership team, including industry veterans from Nigeria’s Bank Verification Number programme, to integrate their automated Biometric Identification System into national digital public infrastructure.

The company says the significance of this move lies in the departure from traditional, “clunky” biometric models.

Historically, digital ID enrollment in Sub-Saharan Africa has been throttled by the high cost of specialised scanners and the logistical nightmare of deploying them to rural areas.

Identy.io notes that its approach shifts the heavy lifting to mobile software.

Identy.io is positioning itself to capture a market the World Bank’s Identification for Development initiative identifies as critical for financial inclusion.

If successful, this could accelerate government-to-person payments and healthcare access in regions where coverage currently sits below 70%.

“We are transforming the traditional industry model, which often relies on expensive and inflexible digital infrastructure,” says Antony Vendhan, Co-founder of Identy.io. “This allows our clients to reach underserved communities by providing individuals with multimodal access to secure their digital identities.”

The company will face established players like IDEMIA and Thales, who have long dominated government contracts.

Furthermore, Identy.io will face competition from up-and-coming regional fintech identity firms such as Smile ID, which already has a significant presence in Know Your Customer services throughout Africa.

To gain an edge, Identy.io has aligned itself with Modular Open Source Identity Platform (MOSIP).

By being listed on the MOSIP marketplace, the company says its tech becomes “plug-and-play” for governments building open-source national ID systems, a growing trend among nations wary of “vendor lock-in.”

While the primary focus remains on Nigeria and Kenya, Identy.io’s long-term roadmap includes a phased rollout to other emerging markets.

 


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Russia Blocks WhatsApp, Pushes State App Max as Alternative Amid Telegram Clampdown

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Russia has confirmed the blocking of popular messaging platform WhatsApp, directing its citizens to switch to the state-backed Max messenger, in a move escalating restrictions on foreign digital services.

Russia Blocks WhatsApp, Pushes State App Max as Alternative Amid Telegram Clampdown

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The decision, announced by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Thursday, stems from WhatsApp’s parent company Meta’s alleged failure to comply with Russian laws, though specifics were not disclosed. This action follows days after authorities intensified curbs on Telegram, another widely used app among millions, including military personnel, officials and state media.

Peskov described Max as “an affordable alternative on the market for citizens, a developing national messenger,” emphasising its role in replacing non-compliant foreign platforms. WhatsApp, owned by Meta—which also operates the already banned Facebook and Instagram—responded sharply, accusing Moscow of attempting a full block to force users onto a “state-owned surveillance app.” The company stated: “Trying to isolate over 100 million users from private and secure communication is a backwards step and can only lead to less safety for people in Russia,” vowing continued efforts to reconnect users.

The block is not isolated. Earlier this week, Roskomnadzor, Russia’s communications regulator, announced further restrictions on Telegram for refusing to remove “criminal and terrorist” content, throttling its performance nationwide. Telegram founder Pavel Durov countered that such pressures would not deter the platform’s commitment to “freedom of speech and privacy.” This builds on prior measures, including August 2025 restrictions on video and voice calls on both WhatsApp and Telegram to combat criminal activity, which WhatsApp then decried as access limits.

Max, developed by VK and launched in beta in March 2025, positions itself as a WeChat-like super-app with messaging, voice/video calls, group chats up to 1,000 users, cloud storage, end-to-end encryption for private chats, payments via Russia’s Faster Payment System, and integrations for government services and identity verification. Since September 2025, it has been pre-installed on all new smartphones, tablets and smart TVs sold in Russia, alongside the RuStore app store, as part of a broader “sovereign internet” strategy to monitor communications and replace Western tech amid geopolitical tensions.

Users report partial WhatsApp access via VPNs, but Russian authorities have ramped up countermeasures, restricting 439 VPN providers and enacting a September 2025 law banning ads for bypass tools while deeming VPN use an “aggravating circumstance” in crimes. Fines for individuals deliberately accessing blocked content via VPNs reach 5,000 rubles (about $64). Critics warn these steps enhance state surveillance, while state media insists Max requires fewer user data permissions than rivals.

The clampdown reflects Moscow’s long-running push for digital control, with over 60 percent of VPN users previously accessing banned social media. As Russia promotes domestic alternatives, the moves could reshape communication for its 100 million-plus messaging users, raising global concerns over privacy and internet freedom.


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Nigeria Market Powers Jumia’s Momentum as E-commerce Platform Demand Accelerates

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Nigeria powered Jumia Technologies AG’s strongest growth in 2025, cementing its position as the company’s most important market as rising consumer demand, SME activity and logistics expansion boosted performance across the e-commerce platform.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Jumia’s Nigeria operations recorded a 50% year-on-year increase in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and a 33% rise in orders. The performance highlighted growing adoption of online shopping and Jumia’s increasing relevance to African consumers.

Nigeria’s momentum helped drive 36% year-on-year GMV growth and 34% revenue growth across the group in the quarter, alongside a 26% increase in quarterly active customers. Growth was supported by stronger customer retention and higher order frequency.

Beyond sales growth, Jumia said its Nigeria operations are delivering wider economic impact. The platform supports thousands of local SMEs, enabling them to reach customers nationwide, while continued investment in fulfilment centres and last-mile delivery is creating income opportunities for logistics partners and sales agents.

Efficiency gains were also evident. Fulfilment costs per order declined 12% year-on-year, contributing to a 39% reduction in operating losses and a 47% drop in adjusted EBITDA losses in the fourth quarter. Cash used in operating activities fell sharply to $1.7 million, compared with $26.5 million a year earlier, while liquidity stood at $77.8 million at year-end.

Temidayo Ojo, Chief Executive Officer of Jumia Nigeria, said the results reflect growing trust from consumers and businesses. “Nigeria is central to Jumia’s growth,” Ojo said. “Each order supports local sellers, delivery partners and jobs, while improving access to affordable products for consumers.”

For the full year, Jumia reported 14% GMV growth and 13% revenue growth, with losses narrowing significantly. Looking ahead, the company expects Nigeria to remain a key growth driver as it targets 27–32% GMV growth in 2026 and aims to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the fourth quarter of 2026.

 


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