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Scary! Get Ready for $10 a Barrel Oil

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This is a very bad time for oil dependent country like Nigeria because a scary analysis in Bloomberg by Gary Shilling has predicted a further tumble in oil price,

According to Shilling, at about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107.

They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20.

Here’s why.

U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009.

That’s about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan.

Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.

At the same time, output is climbing, thanks in large part to increased U.S. production from hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling.

U.S. output rose by 15 percent in the 12 months through November from a year earlier, based on the latest data, while imports declined 4 percent.

Something else figures in the mix: The eroding power of the OPEC cartel. Like all cartels, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is designed to ensure stable and above- market crude prices. But those high prices encourage cheating, as cartel members exceed their quotas.

For the cartel to function, its leader — in this case, Saudi Arabia — must accommodate the cheaters by cutting its own output to keep prices from falling. But the Saudis have seen their past cutbacks result in market-share losses.

So the Saudis, backed by other Persian Gulf oil producers with sizable financial resources — Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — embarked on a game of chicken with the cheaters.

On Nov. 27, OPEC said that it wouldn’t cut output, sending oil prices off a cliff. The Saudis figure they can withstand low prices for longer than their financially weaker competitors, who will have to cut production first as pumping becomes uneconomical.

What is the price at which major producers chicken out and slash output? Whatever that price is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to support its mismanaged economy. The same goes for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola.

Saudi Arabia requires a price of more than $90 to fund its budget. But it has $726 billion in foreign currency reserves and is betting it can survive for two years with prices of less than $40 a barrel.

Furthermore, the price when producers chicken out isn’t necessarily the average cost of production, which for 80 percent of new U.S. shale oil production this year will be $50 to $69 a barrel, according to Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

Instead, the chicken-out point is the marginal cost of production, or the additional costs after the wells are drilled and the pipes are laid. Another way to think of it: It’s the price at which cash flow for an additional barrel falls to zero.

Last month, Wood Mackenzie, an energy research organization, found that of 2,222 oil fields surveyed worldwide, only 1.6 percent would have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel.

That suggests there won’t be a lot of chickening out at $40. Keep in mind that the marginal cost for efficient U.S. shale-oil producers is about $10 to $20 a barrel in the Permian Basin in Texas and about the same for oil produced in the Persian Gulf.

Also consider the conundrum financially troubled countries such as Russia and Venezuela find themselves in: They desperately need the revenue from oil exports to service foreign debts and fund imports. Yet, the lower the price, the more oil they need to produce and export to earn the same number of dollars, the currency used to price and trade oil.

With new discoveries, stability in parts of the Middle East and increasing drilling efficiency, global oil output will no doubt rise in the next several years, adding to pressure on prices. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise by 300,000 barrels a day during the next year from 9.1 million now.

Sure, the drilling rig count is falling, but it’s the inefficient rigs that are being idled, not the horizontal rigs that are the backbone of the fracking industry. Consider also Iraq’s recent deal with the Kurds, meaning that another 550,000 barrels a day will enter the market.

While supply climbs, demand is weakening. OPEC forecasts demand for its oil at a 14-year low of 28.2 million barrels a day in 2017, 600,000 less than its forecast a year ago and down from current output of 30.7 million. It also cut its 2015 demand forecast to a 12-year low of 29.12 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reduced its 2015 global demand forecast for the fourth time in 12 months by 230,000 barrels a day to 93.3 million and sees supply exceeding demand this year by 400,000 barrels a day.

Although the 40 percent decline in U.S. gasoline prices since April 2014 has led consumers to buy more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, consumers during the past few years have bought the most efficient blend of cars and trucks ever.

At the same time, slowing growth in China and the shift away from energy-intensive manufactured exports and infrastructure to consumer services is depressing oil demand. China accounted for two-thirds of the growth in demand for oil in the past decade.

So look for more big declines in crude oil and related energy prices.

 


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Senate Gives Tinubu Nod to Borrow Fresh $6Bn

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Senate on Tuesday approved the fresh $6 billion loan request forwarded to the lawmakers by President Bola Tinubu.

Senate Gives Tinubu Nod to Borrow Fresh $6Bn

Lawmakers approved the fresh loan on the same date the request letter was read by Godswill Akpabio, senate president.

The Senate approved the loans following the presentation and consideration of the report by Senator Aliyu Wamakko, chairman, Senate Committee on Local and Foreign Debts.

President Tinubu had written to the Senate seeking approval to borrow a total of $6 billion to finance key government projects and address budgetary gaps.

The requests were contained in two separate letters addressed to Godswill Akpabio, president of the Senate, and read during Tuesday’s plenary.

In the first letter, the President requested approval to obtain a $5 billion loan from Abu Dhabi Bank.

According to the President, the facility will be used to cover the nation’s budget deficit and support debt financing, among other fiscal obligations.

The request forms part of the Federal Government’s efforts to stabilise public finances and sustain ongoing government programmes.

In a separate communication, Tinubu also sought approval to secure a $1 billion UK Export Finance loan facility from London Citi Bank.

The loan is intended for the rehabilitation of key port infrastructure, including the Lagos Port Complex and Tin Can Island Port.

The President said the project aims to address critical infrastructure deficiencies in the country’s maritime sector

According to him, the rehabilitation will help improve efficiency, enhance safety standards, and support Nigeria’s efforts to diversify its economy beyond oil.

He added that the initiative would also strengthen Nigeria’s position as a regional trade hub.

Both requests have now been considered and approved by the Upper Legislative Chamber.


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FG Earmarks $2Bn to Launch 2 Satellites in 2028, 2029

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Federal government has fixed 2028 and 2029 for the launch of two communication satellites, NIGCOMSAT-2A and NIGCOMSAT-2B, as part of efforts to strengthen security and expand digital connectivity.

FG Earmarks $2Bn to Launch 2 Satellites in 2028, 2029

The government will be committing over $22 billion on the ambitious space-led growth agenda focused on new satellite launches, increased industry revenue and expanded broadband access in underserved communities.

At the opening of the 2026 Nigerian Satellite Week in Abuja, Dr Bosun Tijani, minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, confirmed the government’s approval for the acquisition of two new satellites—NigComSat 2A and 2B, describing the move as a “defining commitment” to national development, digital sovereignty and economic competitiveness.

Also, Mrs Jane Nkechi Egerton-Idehen, managing director of Nigerian Communications Satellite Limited (NigComSat), noted that the projects have moved beyond procurement to the execution stage.

She said the satellites are designed to enhance intelligence gathering, surveillance, and connectivity across Nigeria and neighbouring countries, particularly in support of security operations.

“For 2A and 2B, we have started the process. We have closed the tender and are now back into the financing and implementation stage. 2A is built to come up in 2028, and 2B for 2029.

“When they are up and running, they are expected to provide security within the borders and neighbouring countries. They will support the security agencies because data collection and intelligence in real time is important. Satellites like communication satellites allow that, irrespective of where they are,” she said.

On his part, Tijani, said the satellite programme forms part of a broader government strategy to deepen digital infrastructure nationwide.

According to him, the initiative complements ongoing investments in fibre-optic expansion and telecommunications infrastructure, while extending connectivity beyond Nigeria’s borders.

“The President’s approval of NIGCOMSAT-2A and 2B demonstrates a clear commitment to building the future. These satellites will enhance security, connect remote communities, and extend our fibre-optic network into neighbouring countries.

“Some of these neighbouring countries pay up to ten times more for internet capacity than Lagos. Extending our fibre network will not only improve connectivity but also enhance border security and regional collaboration.

“Satellite technology affects everything, from how a child in a rural community accesses the internet to how farmers make critical decisions and how businesses operate across distance,” he said.

 


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FG Launches CLHEEAN to Streamline Access to Government Services

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Federal government has announced the launch of CLHEEAN, an artificial intelligence-powered mobile application designed to improve interactions between citizens and public institutions.

FG Launches CLHEEAN to Streamline Access to Government Services

It is also a civic education and community engagement app.

Developed under the National Orientation Agency (NOA), the platform functions as a virtual assistant accessible via mobile devices.

It allows users to access information on public policies, ask questions, and interact directly with government services.

The app includes features such as instant messaging, voice recognition, and multilingual support, including several local languages, to reach a wider audience.

With CLHEEAN, users can also submit feedback, report concerns, and take part in discussions on public policies. The approach is intended to strengthen citizen participation and improve communication between the government and the public.

Lanre Issa-Onilu, director general of the NOA, said the initiative addresses a long-standing gap between citizens seeking to be heard and systems that do not always respond effectively, adding that the platform marks a step toward closing that gap.

The launch comes as Nigeria continues to face challenges in citizen engagement and the dissemination of public information.

By leveraging artificial intelligence, authorities aim to make public services more accessible while improving transparency and responsiveness.

The initiative also reflects a broader trend across Africa, where governments are increasingly exploring the use of AI to modernize public services and strengthen ties with citizens.


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