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Smartphone Volumes Poised to Return to Growth in 2019- IDC

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The International Data Corporation (IDC) believes that Smartphone market will experience low single-digit growth from 2019 through the end of its forecast in 2022 after expectations of decline in 2018.

 

The International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments to decline 0.7% in 2018 to 1.455 billion units, down from 1.465 billion in 2017.

 

However, IDC believes the market will return to positive growth in the second half of 2018 with volumes up 1.1% compared to the second half of 2017.

 

In the long-term forecast, IDC expects the overall smartphone market to reach 1.646 billion units shipped in 2022.

 

Overall, the global smartphone market is healthy and has plenty of upside, which is noted by the return to growth in the forecast.

 

When breaking down the growth by device type, it is clear that large-screen smartphones (5.5 inch and larger) will lead the charge with volumes of 941.6 million in 2018, accounting for 64.7% of all smartphones, up from 623.2 million units in 2017 and 42.5% share.

 

By 2022, shipments of these larger screen smartphones will jump to 1.391 billion units, or 84.5% of overall shipment volume.

 

The industry is experiencing a shift toward higher aspect ratios, at or near 18:9, which require a larger screen to support the widescreen viewing angle.

 

While the 18:x aspect ratio started with flagship and higher-end devices in 2017, it began to appear in lower-priced devices in 2018, including some sub-$200 handsets.

 

By Q2 2018, 16:9 smartphones were overtaken by 17.5:9 aspect ratios (or higher) for the first time.

 

As Chinese brands, such as Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi, expand their international presence, it is likely the focus on large screens and aspect ratios will remain a focus across their entire portfolio.

 

The anticipation of the new iPhone models this fall, two of which IDC believes will be above 6 inches and available for shipment in the second half of 2018, will act as another catalyst toward driving these important display trends.

 

Melissa Chau, associate research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers, said “With two out of three new iPhones expected to be larger than 6 inches, Apple will not be left behind in the 2018 race for increased screen real estate.

 

“You could say the term ‘phablet’ is becoming less relevant now that most smartphones will ship with larger screens, and when folding screens start coming into play in the medium term, this screen trend will evolve in new directions.”

 

From a geographic perspective, the China market is finally showing signs of recovery and while IDC still expects the largest market in the world to be down 6.3% in 2018 (slightly worse than the 2017 downturn), that is mainly attributed to an extremely poor first half, which saw smartphone volumes down 11%.

 

The second half is expected to improve to a decline of 2% before returning to positive growth in 2019.

 

Asia/Pacific as a region still holds plenty of market growth led by India and Indonesia, which are expected to grow shipments in 2018 by 14.4% and 15.4% respectively.

 

Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said “We still believe the smartphone market has some healthy growth in the years to come, although finding and competing in those markets and segments is increasingly more challenging.

 

“With the US-China trade tariffs changing and unfolding daily it is hard to pinpoint what the exact impact on the market will be, but for the time being OEMs are pushing forward with important initiatives that include the previously mentioned traction around bigger and better displays.

 

“But the industry also has 5G knocking at its doors, and many OEMs, retailers, telcos, and supply chain partners will be working diligently to ensure consumers see the need to upgrade when products and services are readily available.”

 

Platform Highlights shows that Android’s smartphone share will hover around 85% share throughout the forecast.

 

Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, with shipments approaching 1.41 billion in 2022.

 

Among the more interesting trends happening with Android shipments is that average selling prices (ASPs) are growing at a double-digit pace.

 

IDC expects Android ASPs to grow 11.4% in 2018 to $262, up from $235 in 2017. IDC expects this upward trajectory to continue through the forecast, but at a more tempered low single-digit rate from 2019 and beyond.

 

This is a sign of many OEMs slowly migrating their user base upstream to the slightly more expensive handsets.

 

Overall this is a positive sign that consumers are seeing the benefits of moving to a slightly more premium device than they likely previously owned.

 

The broad range of colors, screen sizes, features, and brands are a large catalyst for this movement.

 

iOS: iPhone volumes are expected to grow by 2.1% in 2018 to 220.4 million in total.

 

IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.0%, reaching volumes of 238.5 million by 2022.

 

With larger screen iOS smartphones coming up for launch in the second half of 2018, IDC has shifted greater volumes into the 6-inch to sub-7-inch screen size forecast for iOS.

 

Products are on schedule to begin shipping in the third quarter and ramping up into the fourth quarter of 2018, with volumes growing to account for half of all iPhones shipped by 2022.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

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New Investment Fund Targets Acceleration of Emerging Technology in Nigeria

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The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has announced the formation of Airbel Ventures, a new humanitarian impact investing fund aimed at accelerating the introduction and scaling of breakthrough technologies in crisis-affected communities.

The fund will invest in companies whose ideas have the potential to change humanitarian response, including digital infrastructure for frontline health systems and climate-resilient agriculture.

The launch of Airbel Ventures follows a period of rapid innovation at the IRC, despite the humanitarian sector facing record funding cuts.

In the past year, the IRC’s Airbel Impact Lab has advanced more than twenty Artificial Intelligence (AI) and technology initiatives—from anticipatory action tools powered by climate and vulnerability data, to frontline service delivery using safe, orchestrated AI systems, to breakthrough diagnostic tools for emerging diseases.

Airbel Ventures’ first impact investment is in Signalytic, a company delivering solar-powered computing devices that ensure reliable electricity and connectivity for remote health facilities.

Following the investment, the IRC will pilot Signalytic’s technology with its Nigeria Health team, demonstrating the viability of next-generation digital infrastructure in humanitarian settings.

“We know breakthrough solutions already exist—what’s missing is the path to scale in humanitarian contexts,” said Dr. Jeannie Annan, Senior Vice President for Research & Innovation at the IRC and head of the Airbel Impact Lab.

 


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MTN Nigeria Suffers 9,218 Fibre Cuts in 2025 as Vandalism, Theft Cripple Network

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MTN Nigeria, the country’s largest telecommunications operator, recorded a historic surge in network disruptions in 2025, suffering 9,218 fibre cuts as of December 31, alongside 211 base station sites affected by theft and vandalism, incidents that disrupted mobile and data services relied upon daily by millions of Nigerians.

MTN Nigeria Suffers 9,218 Fibre Cuts in 2025 as Vandalism, Theft Cripple Network

The data was revealed by Dr Karl Toriola, chief executive officer/managing director, MTN Nigeria via a social media post titled ‘MTN Nigeria 2025 Wrapped’.

The scale of the damage highlights the growing vulnerability of Nigeria’s telecommunications infrastructure, which has come under increasing pressure from road construction activities, cable theft and deliberate acts of vandalism.

MTN said 5,478 fibre cuts occurred within just the first seven months of 2025, with 760 incidents recorded in July alone, underscoring the intensity of the challenge.

Some of the incidents had wide-ranging consequences, knocking out connectivity across multiple states simultaneously and affecting voice calls, data services, digital payments and enterprise operations.

The company described the situation as a national infrastructure problem, rather than an isolated corporate issue, given the economy’s deep dependence on mobile networks.

“These gaps were shaped by real operational challenges such as fibre cuts, theft, and vandalism. Their impact is felt directly by customers and reflected in what they tell us,” Toriola,

The disruptions were reflected in customer feedback volumes, as MTN handled an unprecedented number of complaints during the year. The operator said it resolved 1,624,263 customer complaints in 2025, spanning call centres, social media platforms, emails and physical service centres nationwide.

Despite the setbacks, MTN pointed to signs of operational resilience. The company retained its ranking as Nigeria’s best network by Ookla, returned to profitability after a challenging period, declared an interim dividend, and expanded its subscriber base to over 85 million users by September 2025.

The figures show that while Nigeria’s telecom operators continue to invest heavily in network expansion and customer service, infrastructure sabotage remains a major drag on service quality and operating costs.

MTN acknowledged that performance improvements remain a work in progress. “We are not where we want to be yet. We see you. We hear you. We exist because of you. And we will get better,” Toriola said.

As the company enters its 25th year of operations in Nigeria, Toriola said MTN is doubling down on customer-centricity, treating every piece of feedback as a guide for improvement, while also stepping up engagement with government agencies.

The CEO renewed calls for stronger regulatory and legal protections for telecommunications infrastructure, urging policymakers to classify fibre cables, base stations and other critical assets as national infrastructure and criminalise vandalism to deter repeat attacks.


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NCC Licences Six New ISPs to Challenge Telcos, Satellite Giants

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Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has granted operating licences to six new Internet Service Providers (ISPs), effective January 1, 2026, raising the total number of authorised ISPs in the country to 231 from 225 recorded in December 2025.

NCC Licences Six New ISPs to Challenge Telcos, Satellite Giants

NCC

The newly licensed firms are Intellvision Technologies Limited, Granet Technologies Limited, Fiber Sonic Limited, Dasol Solution Services Ltd, Boost ISP Limited, and Amazon Kuiper Nigeria Limited.

Five of these companies are headquartered in Lagos, while Granet Technologies Limited operates from Owerri in Imo State, highlighting the persistent concentration of broadband infrastructure in major commercial hubs like Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt.

This development intensifies competition in Nigeria’s broadband market, which faces pressure from dominant mobile network operators such as MTN and Airtel, alongside rapid expansion by satellite providers like Starlink.

Traditional ISPs continue to grapple with shrinking customer bases, aggressive data pricing from telcos, and satellite disruptions, even as NCC data from Q2 2025 showed Spectranet, Starlink, and FibreOne controlling about 65 per cent of the 313,713 active ISP subscribers.

The inclusion of Amazon Kuiper Nigeria Limited marks a significant entry of global satellite broadband competition, building on Nigeria’s recent approvals for other low Earth orbit providers to enhance connectivity in underserved areas.

Industry analysts view the licences as a strategic push to improve internet quality amid rising demand for digital services, though geographic clustering underscores ongoing infrastructure challenges outside urban centres.

NCC’s move aligns with broader efforts to foster a competitive telecoms sector critical to Nigeria’s digital economy ambitions.


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