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Subdued Hit from COVID-19, Subdued Rebound Too

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By Gregory Kronsten

The impact of COVID-19 on output in Nigeria is likely to be less severe than on many comparable economies. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook in April saw GDP contraction of -3.4 per cent this year and a rebound of just 2.4 per cent in 2021.

We might think that in the early days of COVID-19 (outside China) the Fund then lacked the materials to make credible projections. Yet earlier this month the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects came up with a similar narrative (-3.2 per cent in 2020 and 1.7 per cent next year). For the record, FBNQuest Research’s projections are -3.1 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively.

Official sources in Nigeria have a melancholier take. Earlier this week Sarah Alade, Economic Advisor to the President and Former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Deputy Governor, was quoted as sharing a best-case scenario of -4.4 per cent this year and a worst of more than -8.0 per cent contraction.

The governor has suggested, in contrast, that the damage could be less than indicated by the Fund. The point of interest is less the precise number than the underlying story.

We see several domestic and external reasons for Nigeria’s hit to be less strong than that of other emerging markets (EMs). The World Bank projects contraction of -7.1 per cent in South Africa this year, for example, while its central bank (SARB) forecasts -7.0 per cent.

Agriculture is the largest sector of the Nigerian economy and has a large subsistence component that is insulated from COVID-19. The Nigerian economy as a whole enjoys some protection from global headwinds with the obvious exception of the crude oil price.

Manufacturing produces consumer goods for the domestic market, and the reach of global supply chains into Nigeria is limited. Unlike large EMs such as Brazil and Argentina, it is not an important trading nation. Nor is Nigeria a regional hub for air transport. Unlike South Africa and Kenya, it is not a tourist destination other than for its large diaspora in the holiday season.

These factors should limit the contraction of the economy. That said, all the forecasts mentioned for the year would still result in one of the worst GDP outturns ever for Nigeria. We should remember that the per head figure would be far worse, given the annual growth in the population of 2.8 per cent.

A Lagos-based survey by REACH Technologies has indicated an average decline in incomes of about 30 per cent between March and end of May. Carried out on behalf of FBNQuest, the survey also found that respondents cut their spending on high-value items by about 22 per cent over the same period.

As the hit this year will be weaker than that on its peers, so will the rebound in 2021 be for the same reasons. Ideally Nigeria’s growth trajectory would be closer to its peers because it would then be more incorporated within the global village. The federal government does have the opportunity to make changes to increase that degree of incorporation. We note that the federal finance ministry has been quoted as saying that it has permanently exited gasoline subsidies.

We saw an earlier statement to the same effect from the top brass in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, which has been absorbing the cost below the operational in its accounts. Taking the two together, we are hopeful.

Gregory Kronsten is Head Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, FBNQuest


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Nigeria Treats Religious Violence as Attack on State – NSA Ribadu

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National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu has said the federal government considers religious violence an attack on the Nigerian state, stressing that the protection of all citizens, regardless of faith, is non-negotiable.

Nigeria Treats Religious Violence as Attack on State – NSA Ribadu

According to presidential spokesperson Bayo Onanuga, Ribadu made the remarks in Abuja at the close of a US–Nigeria Joint Working Group session.

“Nigeria is a deeply plural society, and the protection of all citizens, Christians, Muslims, and those of other beliefs, is non-negotiable,” Ribadu said.
“Violence framed along religious lines is treated as an attack on the Nigerian state itself.”

In a follow-up post on X, Ribadu said the joint working group has recorded “tangible operational gains” in the fight against terrorism.

The working group was set up following Nigeria’s designation as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) by US President Donald Trump, a label that often triggers policy actions aimed at ending severe violations of religious freedom.

At the meeting, Ribadu led Nigeria’s delegation, which included representatives from 10 ministries and agencies, while the US delegation, made up of eight federal agencies, was led by Allison Hooker, US under-secretary of state.

Ribadu said Nigeria-US security cooperation has moved from dialogue to action, resulting in the disruption of terrorist networks and transnational criminal groups. He also praised the US for supplying drones, helicopters, platforms, spare parts, and other support systems over the past five years.

Speaking at the session, Hooker said the US was committed to expanding its partnership with Nigeria, particularly on deterring violence against Christian communities.

“Today, we are here to discuss how we can work together to deter violence against Christian communities, prioritising counter-terrorism, insecurity, investigation of attacks, and holding perpetrators accountable,” she said.

She added that efforts would focus on reducing killings, forced displacement, and abductions of Christians, especially in Nigeria’s north-central states


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PalmPay User Shares Experience on Fintech Apps to Trust in Nigeria

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For many Nigerians, fintech apps are judged by one simple question: Can I trust the platform? For Happiness, a young Nigerian entrepreneur, the answer manifested in the most defining moments of her life.

Trust Built Through Everyday Use

In 2025, Happiness relied on PalmPay to run her business, from receiving customer payments, paying vendors, and managing daily transactions. During PalmPay’s Hustle Grant Campaign, she joined thousands of small business owners hoping to win the N500,000 funding.

While she didn’t make the shortlist, the campaign gave her business something just as valuable: visibility. New customers discovered her brand, enquiries increased, and sales followed.

PalmPay didn’t just host a campaign; it created an ecosystem where small businesses could be seen and supported.

Just days later, Happiness’ life changed. On August 30, 2025, she lost her father. With this loss came challenges, especially payments. They tried transferring money through regular banks but were met with declined transactions. Happiness suggested using her PalmPay account and it was successful.

In a moment defined by loss and urgency, PalmPay cut through the chaos, proving that reliability isn’t a feature, it’s a lifeline. Happiness’ relationship with PalmPay didn’t stop at transactions. Through other management tools on the app, she learned to build discipline around her finances.

More Than an App, a Financial Partner

Beyond transactions, PalmPay’s tools helped Happiness build better money habits and financial discipline. Today, the brand continues to reward reliability through initiatives like its ongoing Premier Cool campaign, reinforcing a simple message: consistency should come with value.

The idea is simple: Purchase a bar of soap and stand a chance to get ₦10,000cash and other cash benefits.

It’s PalmPay’s way of saying that smart money habits deserve real value in return.

Why PalmPay Earns Trust

Life doesn’t give warnings before it tests you. When it does, you need a platform that doesn’t just usually work but always works.

For many users, PalmPay proves to be more than a payment app. It is a trusted partner powering ambitions, supporting users through defining life moments, while helping them bank smartly.

When it mattered most, PalmPay worked. To watch the full testimonial visit: @palmpayapp_ng


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Nigerians Target Self-Improvement, Business Startups in 2026 Google Data

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Google Search data from the first two weeks of 2026 reveals Nigerians are prioritising ambition, self-growth, and entrepreneurial ventures as they embrace the new year with renewed drive for personal and professional excellence.

Nigerians Target Self-Improvement, Business Startups in 2026 Google Data

Google

The data shows a 40 per cent spike in searches related to self-improvement and “becoming better”, reflecting a nationwide shift from mere resolutions to actionable plans across boardrooms, classrooms, and homes. Entrepreneurship leads the charge, with “how to start a business” topping “how to start” queries after an 80 per cent surge, alongside rising interest in blogging, podcasting, and YouTube channels to foster economic opportunities.

Personal development dominates, as searches for “how to be a better person” rose 20 per cent, extending to relationships with queries on becoming better lovers, partners, husbands, wives, and listeners. Health resolutions gain traction, with 40 per cent increases in “how to eat healthy”, “healthy diet”, and “how to meditate” underscoring commitments to physical vitality and mental wellness.

Skill mastery captivates diverse audiences, from “how to improve English” and communication skills to enhancing memory, credit scores, and even handwriting, while leisure pursuits spike in “how to get better at” chess, singing, running, Fortnite, and soccer. Top searches include “how to improve communication skills”, “how to be a better listener”, and entrepreneurial starters like “how to start a podcast”, painting a portrait of a nation honing edges for success.

Taiwo Kola-Ogunlade, Communications and Public Affairs Manager for West Africa at Google, described the trends as a “powerful reflection of Nigeria’s collective ambition”, affirming the company’s dedication to tools like Search and Gemini for guiding Nigerians toward prosperity


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