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Subdued Hit from COVID-19, Subdued Rebound Too

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By Gregory Kronsten

The impact of COVID-19 on output in Nigeria is likely to be less severe than on many comparable economies. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook in April saw GDP contraction of -3.4 per cent this year and a rebound of just 2.4 per cent in 2021.

We might think that in the early days of COVID-19 (outside China) the Fund then lacked the materials to make credible projections. Yet earlier this month the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects came up with a similar narrative (-3.2 per cent in 2020 and 1.7 per cent next year). For the record, FBNQuest Research’s projections are -3.1 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively.

Official sources in Nigeria have a melancholier take. Earlier this week Sarah Alade, Economic Advisor to the President and Former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Deputy Governor, was quoted as sharing a best-case scenario of -4.4 per cent this year and a worst of more than -8.0 per cent contraction.

The governor has suggested, in contrast, that the damage could be less than indicated by the Fund. The point of interest is less the precise number than the underlying story.

We see several domestic and external reasons for Nigeria’s hit to be less strong than that of other emerging markets (EMs). The World Bank projects contraction of -7.1 per cent in South Africa this year, for example, while its central bank (SARB) forecasts -7.0 per cent.

Agriculture is the largest sector of the Nigerian economy and has a large subsistence component that is insulated from COVID-19. The Nigerian economy as a whole enjoys some protection from global headwinds with the obvious exception of the crude oil price.

Manufacturing produces consumer goods for the domestic market, and the reach of global supply chains into Nigeria is limited. Unlike large EMs such as Brazil and Argentina, it is not an important trading nation. Nor is Nigeria a regional hub for air transport. Unlike South Africa and Kenya, it is not a tourist destination other than for its large diaspora in the holiday season.

These factors should limit the contraction of the economy. That said, all the forecasts mentioned for the year would still result in one of the worst GDP outturns ever for Nigeria. We should remember that the per head figure would be far worse, given the annual growth in the population of 2.8 per cent.

A Lagos-based survey by REACH Technologies has indicated an average decline in incomes of about 30 per cent between March and end of May. Carried out on behalf of FBNQuest, the survey also found that respondents cut their spending on high-value items by about 22 per cent over the same period.

As the hit this year will be weaker than that on its peers, so will the rebound in 2021 be for the same reasons. Ideally Nigeria’s growth trajectory would be closer to its peers because it would then be more incorporated within the global village. The federal government does have the opportunity to make changes to increase that degree of incorporation. We note that the federal finance ministry has been quoted as saying that it has permanently exited gasoline subsidies.

We saw an earlier statement to the same effect from the top brass in the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, which has been absorbing the cost below the operational in its accounts. Taking the two together, we are hopeful.

Gregory Kronsten is Head Macroeconomic and Fixed Income Research, FBNQuest


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NCDC Enhances Monitoring, Releases Advisory amid Rising Global Hantavirus Cases

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Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has intensified nationwide disease surveillance following reports of a Hantavirus infection cluster connected to international cruise ship travel involving several countries.

NCDC Enhances Monitoring, Releases Advisory amid Rising Global Hantavirus Cases

Dr Jide Idris, director-general, NCDC, in a public health advisory, confirmed that Nigeria has not recorded any confirmed Hantavirus case and stated that the overall public health risk remains low.

According to the agency, the reported outbreak currently involves a limited number of confirmed and suspected infections linked to cruise ship exposure, while international investigations and contact tracing efforts continue.

The NCDC explained that the advisory was released to strengthen national preparedness and encourage vigilance against emerging infectious diseases amid growing global concern surrounding the outbreak.

Health authorities noted that Hantaviruses are mainly transmitted through exposure to infected rodents, their urine, saliva, droppings, or contaminated dust particles. Symptoms may include fever, fatigue, muscle pain, gastrointestinal illness, and in severe cases, respiratory complications.

The current outbreak has reportedly been associated with the Andes virus strain, which has shown limited human-to-human transmission through close contact in previous cases.

The NCDC stated that enhanced monitoring systems have been activated nationwide to support early detection and rapid response efforts.

The agency also urged Nigerians to maintain proper hygiene, prevent rodent infestations, safely store food items, and avoid exposure to rodents and contaminated environments.

Officials further advised the public to rely only on verified information from recognized health authorities and avoid spreading misinformation regarding the outbreak.

 

 


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Moniepoint Partners GDG Lagos, Women Techmakers to Empower the Next Generation of Women Architects in Tech

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In a critical move to bolster talent density and accelerate Nigeria’s digital economy, Africa’s all in one financial ecosystem, Moniepoint hosted an International Women’s Day event bringing together women in technology for a day of leadership development and hands-on product building.

Held at Moniepoint’ Headquarters in Lagos, themed “Break the Pattern,” the event was organised in partnership with Women Techmakers Lagos and Google Developer Group (GDG) Lagos with participants spanning both technical and non-technical backgrounds, reflecting the breadth of women currently active across Nigeria’s digital economy.

In a keynote address delivered by Kemi Nwogu, Head of Product at Moniepoint Inc, titled “Breaking the Pattern: How Women Can Redefine the Future of Tech,” she made the case that progress for women in technology requires not just access to existing structures, but the tools and confidence to reshape them. Furthermore, Nwogu issued a bold call to action, urging attendees to move beyond traditional career playbooks and take ownership of shaping the industry’s future.

“From a young age, many girls have been subtly discouraged from pursuing science and tech. They are told sometimes directly, sometimes indirectly, that tech is too hard, too technical, or simply not for them. These patterns are not facts, they are constructs. And what has been constructed can be deconstructed! The future of tech needs leaders who build people, not just products, cultures, not just systems,”said Nwogu.

On building skills with purpose, she urged women to “show up everyday, make small, steady progress with online courses, coding bootcamps, open-source projects while leveraging the full ecosystem; take on challenging tasks as your greatest classroom using real problems to build real skills; while knowing why you’re building a skill as every learning goal can be tied to a career journey.”

This thematic fare of the event was further explored in a panel discussion, “Unscripted: Leading Beyond the Patterns We Inherited”, moderated by Atinuke Oluwabamikemi Kayode and featuring leaders from fintech, creative design, and software engineering space, including Chukwu Adaeze (Creative Director, CAV Digital), Chinenye Ogbu (Customer Experience Lead, Hydrogen), and Motunrayo Koyejo (Senior Software Engineer, Cowrywise).

The robust and extensive conversation examined the professional archetypes that have historically defined leadership in the Nigerian tech ecosystem: the engineering culture that equates output with exhaustion, the creative industry’s tendency toward top-down authority, the script-driven rigidity of customer-facing roles. The panelists also provided deep insights into how they had navigated and, in places, dismantled those patterns within their teams and organizations.

The event went beyond conversations to a hands-on workshop, Prompt to Production, facilitated by Taiwo Famakinde which guided attendees through modern product development from prompt design through rapid prototyping to the deployment of a functional application using AI tools.

A lot of the participants entered with little to no prior experience building software products. The workshop then fed directly into a Buildathon, where participants developed and deployed their own solutions in real time, with the strongest builds recognised and rewarded at the closing ceremony.

“IWD celebrations are often heavy on inspiration, but we wanted to offer something more, a proof of capability. Oftentimes, there is a gap between having ideas and actually building them, and we set out to bridge that by creating a space where women could easily deploy their ideas into live products with AI in just a few hours. By the end of the day, something that once felt complex due to the fast pace of AI started to feel possible.

“Our participants left with both the technical confidence to build and the leadership frameworks to navigate their careers on their own terms, ensuring they are no longer just participants in the tech ecosystem, but the architects of its future. They are now ready to test their ideas and lead without waiting for perfect conditions or a full team.” said Funke Olasupo, Co-organizer, Women Techmakers Lagos.

Interestingly, the “Break the Pattern” event sits within a broader investment in Nigeria’s technology talent pipeline that Moniepoint has deployed over the years. As one of Nigeria’s most significant fintech employers, the company runs a critical engine that sustains Nigeria’s formal and informal economy.

Moniepoint has invested in developer community partnerships including its ongoing collaboration with GDG Lagos as well as internal programmes designed to build engineering depth across product domains that include its highly successful Women in Tech initiative, DreamDevs, HatchDev and the government’s acclaimed 3MTT programme.

 


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Google Disrupts AI-Driven Cyberattack, Warns of Emerging Security Risks

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Google says it has disrupted an attempt by a criminal group to use artificial intelligence (AI) to exploit a previously unknown software vulnerability, highlighting growing concerns over the use of AI in cybercrime.

Google Disrupts AI-Driven Cyberattack, Warns of Emerging Security Risks

Google

The technology company disclosed this on Monday, saying the hackers planned to exploit a “zero-day” vulnerability in an unnamed company’s digital system before the attack was intercepted.

A zero-day vulnerability refers to a software flaw unknown to the vendor or security teams, leaving no time to develop a protective fix before exploitation.

John Hultquist, Chief Analyst at Google’s threat intelligence arm, described the incident as a significant shift in cybersecurity threats.

“It’s here. The era of AI-driven vulnerability and exploitation is already here,” Hultquist said.

According to Google, the attackers intended to exploit a security flaw that would have allowed them to bypass two-factor authentication and gain access to a widely used online system administration tool.

The company said it had notified the affected firm and relevant law enforcement agencies, successfully disrupting the operation before any damage occurred.

Google, however, declined to identify the targeted company, the threat actors involved, or the AI model used in the attempted breach.

The firm said preliminary analysis suggests the hackers used a large language model, similar to those powering popular AI chatbots, to identify the vulnerability.

Google noted there was no evidence linking the attempted attack to any government-backed operation, although groups connected to China and North Korea have reportedly explored similar AI-enabled cyber techniques.

The disclosure comes amid growing debate over the regulation of increasingly advanced AI systems capable of coding, vulnerability discovery, and cybersecurity analysis.

Recent advancements in AI hacking tools, including Anthropic’s newly announced cybersecurity-focused model, Mythos, have intensified concerns among governments and technology firms worldwide.

The U.S. government has also stepped up oversight of advanced AI systems, with the Commerce Department recently announcing agreements with major technology firms, including Google, Microsoft, and xAI, to evaluate powerful AI models before public release.

Industry analysts warn that while AI could strengthen cybersecurity by helping organisations detect and patch software flaws faster, it could also accelerate cyber threats by enabling criminals to discover and weaponise vulnerabilities at unprecedented speed.

Dean Ball, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation, said governments may need to consider stronger oversight of advanced AI tools.

“I don’t like regulation. I would prefer for things not to be regulated. But I think we need to in this case,” Ball said.

Experts say the growing use of AI in cybersecurity could create a transitional period of heightened digital risk before stronger defences are developed globally.


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