General News
The impact of COVID-19 on the Debt Capital Markets in Africa – FBNQuest
Traditionally, corporates and states in Africa use debt capital markets to raise huge funding. As the coronavirus bites harder against the increasing debt-to-GDP ratios coupled with increasing risks in African countries, the pricing of new issuances in the international debt capital markets became relatively unattractive.
Consequently, African governments turned to other concessionary sources like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Development Finance Institutions for funding.
Africa’s depiction of the international debt capital markets is dominated by sovereign issuances. While its debt capital markets offer investors better returns than in developed markets, its domestic markets remain shallow and least diversified compared to other emerging and frontier markets.
Also, African corporates are less likely to raise substantial amounts of funding via debt capital markets due to various reasons including lack of depth in the domestic markets and institutional weaknesses.
Between 2014 and 2018, sovereign bonds accounted for 51.5 per cent of the total $140.3 billion raised from 437 international bond transactions in Africa.
Within 2016 and 2018, African issuers raised about $120 billion of non-local currency debt which further culminated to $245.9 billion of non-local currency debt from 759 issues within the last decade.
The largest sovereign issuer of non-local currency debt in 2019 was Egypt raising $8.2 billion. Next to Egypt is South Africa which raised $5 billion in September of the same year from its largest-ever Eurobond issuance.
However, in 2020, the effect of COVID-19 impacted the African economy resulting in a pullback from African markets as countries faced crisis on all levels including health and social services. These unprecedented shocks call for a temporary debt standstill for all African countries as economic fundamentals deteriorated.
A 2020 study on the economic impact of COVID-19 by the African Union (AU) showed that while countries in Africa could lose up to $500 billion, they may be forced to borrow heavily to survive after the pandemic, hence the need for the debt standstill—suspension of debt service.
For example, Mozambique’s debt overtook its overall economic output as its debt-to-GDP ratio, which was 100 per cent in 2018 billowed to 130 per cent in 2020; even as the country struggles to repay its $14 billion external debt.
Asides from Mozambique, there are other poor and highly indebted African countries with little fiscal space to provide a robust response and recovery from the pandemic. Some of these countries like Angola, Djibouti, Congo, Cabo Verde, and Egypt have a higher than 100 per cent external debt-to-GDP ratio, yet, they still seek more funds.
Consequently, the G-20 agreed to suspend debt repayment for the world’s 75 poorest countries until the end of 2020. UN Secretary-General António Guterres further advised that debt suspension should be extended to all developing countries, while the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) recommended a complete temporary debt standstill for two years for all African countries, without exception.
Over the years, there have been calls by multilateral institutions for debt forgiveness for Africa’s most impoverished states. However, some experts opine that such cancellation or debt standstill would be perceived as a default in today realities of the international capital markets and will greatly compromise the future access of African countries to international markets.
For example, states like Benin and Ghana which were able to access capital markets over the past year at 5.75 per cent for 7 years (€500 million) and 8.875 per cent for 40 years ($750 million) respectively might find it difficult to do so if they are perceived to be in default. On the other hand, perception of default would likely also be priced into future borrowings by African countries.
Following the above, in April 2020, China, which accounts for most of the lending to African countries through its China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China, expressed a willingness to provide Africa debt relief, but not forgiveness.
In June, China offered to cancel Africa’s interest-free loans, which is less than 5 per cent of Africa’s debt to China, based on bilateral negotiations.
With the already rising value of the total public debts in many African countries, to combat the prevailing crisis of the coronavirus, some African countries opted for multilateral financing. One of such countries is Nigeria.
The country, in the second quarter of 2020, requested $6.9 billion of multilateral financing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and African Development Bank (AfDB) to minimise the impact of the upsurge of the global pandemic.
Part of these funds was to establish a $1.2 billion COVID-19 crisis intervention fund to upgrade healthcare facilities across the country and to provide intervention funds to the 36 states including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Similarly, against the backdrop of the pandemic, the African Union launched several programmes, like the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) COVID-19 Response Plan to help countries fight the pandemic and recover better.
Using Nigeria as a case study, activities in the domestic bond market significantly increased year-on-year given the relatively low yields in the market.
In H1 2020, seven corporate bond issuances were raised to the tune of N152.7 billion compared to N54 billion raised in three issuances in the corresponding period of the previous year.
According to the data by the Debt Management Office (DMO), the nation’s debt stock data at the third quarter (Q3) 2020 showed that the total public debt portfolio of the federal and state government combined stood at N32.22 trillion ($84.57 billion), an increase of 22.9 per cent but a decrease of 1 per cent in dollar equivalent due to the different exchange rate values within the periods.
Nigeria’s total public debt showed that $31.99 billion (or 37.82 per cent of the debt) was external while $52.59 billion (or 62.18 per cent of the debt) was domestic.
Further disaggregation of Nigeria’s foreign debt showed that $16.74 billion of the debt was multilateral; $502.38 million was bilateral (AFD) and another $3.26 billion bilateral from the Exim Bank of China, JICA, India, and KFW while $11.17 billion was commercial which are Eurobonds and Diaspora Bonds.
The debt conundrum leaves Africa in a dilemma considering the rising budget deficits coupled with the need to fund the deficits.
If Africa is to stop depending on donors and multilateral funds to finance its economic development, it needs to evolve towards market-based financing for the quantum of financing required.
In addition, African countries need to promote market-friendly policies that will attract capital to underserved sectors and allow the states to focus its limited financing on priority sectors such as education, health, and social services.
Nigeria Atomic Energy Commission (NAEC), has said that there are plans for Nigeria to begin to generate electricity from nuclear sources.
Mr Anthony Godwin Ekedegwa, chief executive, NAEC stated this when he recently visited Mr Umar Yusuf Girei, acting managing director, National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA),in Abuja.
He was at NIWA’s office to solicit the support of NIWA in achieving the numerous advantages of using nuclear energy technology in the country.
According to him, the partnership of critical stakeholders in Nigeria will position the country well in developing and maintaining its nuclear power plant.
The NAEC chief said Nigeria intends to begin the generation of electricity from nuclear sources instead of fossil-based power plants and hydro-based power plants, stressing that for Nigeria to develop, there is a need for the country to diversify its energy needs.
In his remarks, Mr Girei assured NAEC of his agency’s readiness to collaborate on the advancement of a nuclear power plant in Nigeria.
He promised the full support of NAEC for the success of a nuclear power plant in the country, saying that as the organisation saddled with the responsibility of regulating and developing Nigeria Inland Waterways, his entity is strategically positioned to play a critical role in the federal government’s quest for sustainable energy through the new technology.
In a powerful call for continental solidarity, Ralph Mupita, Group CEO of MTN, has asserted that the future of the African continent depends on the dismantling of xenophobic barriers.
Speaking at the Kgalema Motlanthe Foundation (KMF) Winter Seminar, Mupita framed migration as a fundamental characteristic of the African identity, urging South Africa and other nations to embrace integration over exclusion.
He emphasised that the survival of African enterprises depends on a borderless approach to trade and talent. “The digital economy we’re fast moving to knows no borders.” Mupita declared, noting that the mindset of exclusion is an outdated relic that hinders the continent’s ability to compete globally.
He argued that for Africa to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the psychological barriers of xenophobia must be eradicated.
Providing a stark financial justification for this stance, Mupita highlighted MTN’s own operational reality as a blueprint for Pan-African success. “We earn about 80 to 82% of our earnings from outside South Africa,” he revealed, illustrating that the prosperity of South African-born entities is inextricably linked to their success across the rest of the continent. This figure underscores the interdependence of African economies and the danger of isolationist policies.
Mupita’s stance was strong advocating for unity: “The future of Africa will not be determined by the borders that separate us, but by the economic opportunities that connect us. Governments must set predictable policy and regulations.
Businesses will follow and allocate resources and capital. Together, we can build a continent where opportunity is more evenly shared and prosperity is more widely created.”
Analysts observing the seminar noted that Mupita’s remarks come at a critical juncture where economic volatility often fuels nationalist rhetoric. By tying the fight against xenophobia to the balance sheet, MTN is positioning Pan-Africanism beyond the moral imperative to its function as a business necessity. The CEO stressed that “Migration is part of who we are,” suggesting that the movement of people is the primary engine for the movement of capital and innovation.
Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has urged the Federal Government and the National Pension Commission (PenCom) to suspend the proposed increase in Nigeria’s mandatory pension contribution from 18 per cent to 21 per cent, warning that the policy would raise the cost of doing business, threaten jobs and undermine enterprise sustainability at a time of mounting economic pressures.
Dr. Chinyere Almona, director general of the LCCI, said while strengthening retirement security remains an important policy objective, increasing mandatory pension contributions by three percentage points would impose additional financial burdens on businesses already grappling with high borrowing costs, persistent inflation, foreign exchange volatility, rising energy prices and multiple taxes.
According to the chamber, the proposed increase comes at a period when many businesses, particularly micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), are struggling to remain profitable amid Nigeria’s challenging operating environment.
The LCCI noted that Nigeria’s existing mandatory pension contribution rate of 18 per cent comprising 10 per cent by employers and 8 per cent by employees is already broadly aligned with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average of 18.8 per cent.
It argued that raising the contribution to approximately 21 per cent would place Nigeria above several comparable economies, including the United Kingdom, where mandatory contributions stand at 8 per cent; the United States at 12.4 per cent; Kenya at 12 per cent, subject to earnings caps; and South Africa, where there is no equivalent mandatory private-sector pension contribution.
The chamber warned that implementing the proposed increase would significantly raise employment costs for employers, discourage new recruitment, constrain wage growth and place disproportionate pressure on MSMEs, which account for a substantial share of employment in Nigeria.
According to the LCCI, the higher payroll obligations could also reduce Nigeria’s competitiveness as an investment destination, encourage non-compliance with pension regulations and push more businesses into the informal sector.
“A stronger pension system cannot be built on weaker businesses,” the chamber stated, stressing that economic sustainability and business growth remain critical to expanding pension coverage over the long term.
The LCCI therefore called on the Federal Government to defer the proposal until a comprehensive Nigeria-specific actuarial and economic impact assessment is conducted to determine its implications for businesses, workers and the broader economy.
It also urged policymakers to engage in extensive consultations with organised private sector groups, labour unions and other key stakeholders before implementing any changes to the country’s pension contribution framework.
According to the chamber, the government’s immediate priority should be restoring business confidence, preserving existing jobs, encouraging investment and expanding the formal economy, which it described as the most sustainable pathway to improving retirement savings.
As an alternative to increasing contribution rates, the LCCI advised PenCom to focus on developing more innovative investment instruments capable of generating stronger returns on pension assets.
The chamber said improving investment performance would enhance contributors’ retirement savings without imposing additional financial obligations on employers and employees already facing difficult economic conditions.
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