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What Does Trump Win Mean for Financial Markets?

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This year, a new answer was born to questions like ‘why is (insert surprising or shocking event) happening’?

The answer is simply: ‘because…2016’. Six months ago, most pundits called it a long shot that that Republican candidate Donald Trump might win the US presidential elections. Then again…it is 2016.

A Brexit was also considered to be a long shot, and yet, Britain did indeed end up unexpectedly voting to leave its European Union membership, sparking off waves of price reactions in the markets.

The Gold price climbed so fast that investors got dizzy at the new heights. The Sterling and FTSE fell off the edge of the cliff so rapidly that they left queasiness in its wake.

So, what are the upside and downside scenarios for a Trump win? On the downside, it could look like the Brexit, with the S&P 500 taking the role of the FTSE. Investor confidence may fall dramatically in the short term, meaning losses in the S&P 500.

The losses could be anywhere between five and 10 percent for the S&P, ending the eight-year bull run. In this context, the VIX could soar, tracking potential volatility that might follow the unexpected result of the election.

The other asset to take a lead role in this potential drama is the Mexican Peso. Ever since Trump made an election promise to build a wall to keep Mexican illegal migrants out of the US, the currency has been the best financial asset proxy to signal a Clinton win and a Trump loss. The Peso’s downward slide in the wake of the revelations over a new FBI probe announced in the last week of October into Hillary Clinton’s email issue is a fair indicator of the trend it might take in the event of a Trump win. The currency’s losses may even reach 15 percent.

It’s debatable whether the USD would take a hit or be a hit, given that the currency is often seen as a safe-haven in times of volatility. On balance, the USD could maintain and even rise against its rivals in the case of a Trump win, especially considering the Federal Reserve’s interventionist policies and caution since 2007.

There’s little doubt, however, that another other safe-haven asset – Gold – would be preferred by traders. When the markets lose their risk appetite in the face of a short, sharp shock, they turn to Gold for comfort.

On the upside, an initial sell-off would create opportunities for smart money to dive in and take advantage of the market correction. Something similar was seen in the wake of the Brexit when the FTSE regained ground on bargain buying and central bank easing hopes.

Medium term, there could be additional developments in terms of investor sentiment. Businessman Donald Trump has made much of his economic policies like cutting red tape, which are likely to be popular with US companies.

If his presidency becomes a reality, mergers and acquisitions activity could be boosted and flourish because of fewer regulations seen as restrictive or complicated.

Business-friendly policies could also contribute to a reinvigorated financial services sector and investor confidence could return in earnest for the first time since the sub-prime crash in 2007.

Stocks in the biotech sector – which suffered losses in the wake of Clinton’s criticism of EpiPen’s price hikes – could recover quickly if Trump is victorious.

A win for Hillary Clinton has already been priced in by the markets ahead of the elections, yet as always when it comes to expectations, they can be disappointed. After all, it is…2016.


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E-Financial

World Bank Reveals Obstacles to Growth of Mobile Money Accounts in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Despite being the global epicentre of mobile money innovation, Sub-Saharan Africa remains home to tens of millions of adults who do not own a mobile money account. A new World Bank report disclosed.

According to the Global Findex Database 2025, Sub-Saharan Africa is widely celebrated as the birthplace of mobile money, a technology that has transformed how people send, receive, save, and borrow money using basic mobile phones.

“Yet, the region still accounts for one of the world’s largest concentrations of adults without mobile money accounts,” it said.

The report shows that while about 40 percent of adults in Sub-Saharan Africa had a mobile money account in 2024, up sharply from 27 percent in 2021, roughly 60 percent still do not.

The reasons, the report argues, are less about lack of awareness and more about deep structural barriers that continue to exclude large segments of the population.

According to the report, a lack of money is the single most common barrier to mobile money account ownership in the region.

For many low-income households, irregular earnings, subsistence livelihoods, and dependence on cash-based transactions reduce the perceived value of maintaining an account, even when services are widely available.

This challenge is compounded by affordability issues. Transaction fees, charges for cashing out, and the cost of maintaining an active SIM card can deter the poorest adults, reinforcing the perception that mobile money is not designed for very small or infrequent transactions.

In Nigeria, the World Bank Group has announced an estimate that 139 million in 2025 will be living in poverty despite the reforms of the federal government.

Mobile phone ownership gaps persist

Mobile money cannot function without a mobile phone, yet phone ownership itself remains uneven. The report finds that 40 percent of adults now own a mobile money account, up from 27 percent in 2021.

And those who do not have a financial account also do not own a mobile phone of any kind.

This creates a double barrier: adults who are financially excluded are often also digitally excluded.

Among those without phones, the cost of the device is cited as the primary obstacle. While basic phones are more affordable than smartphones, the report notes that even these can be out of reach for the poorest households, especially in rural areas. Without addressing device affordability, efforts to expand mobile money risk leaving behind the very groups they aim to serve.

The report disclosed that even when phones and accounts are available, digital capability remains a challenge. The report finds that only about half of mobile money account owners in Sub-Saharan Africa protect their phones with passwords, compared with much higher shares in other regions.

Limited digital literacy raises concerns about fraud, mistaken transfers, and scams, which in turn undermines trust in mobile financial services.

Trust issues are further reinforced by negative user experiences. Only about half of the adults in the region who sent money to the wrong person using mobile money reported getting it back, according to the report. Such experiences can discourage first-time users and lead dormant users to abandon their accounts.

A large untapped opportunity

Despite these challenges, the report points to a significant opportunity. In Sub-Saharan Africa, about a quarter of adults without accounts already own a mobile phone, have official ID, and have a SIM card registered in their own name, meaning they have all the prerequisites for mobile money adoption.

“Closing the gap will require coordinated action: reducing the cost of devices, expanding ID coverage, strengthening consumer protection, and designing low-cost products that reflect the financial realities of poor and rural households,” the World Bank argues.

ation for Africa, turning ambition into scalable capital and risk mitigation solutions.


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AfDB Group Mobilises Global Private Capital to Close Africa’s Financing Gap

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Building on the successful conclusion of the 17th replenishment of the African Development Fund (ADF-17), which mobilised $11 billion for Africa’s most vulnerable countries, the African Development Bank Group and the Government of the United Kingdom convened global investors and private sector leaders in London to accelerate a new phase of private capital mobilisation for Africa’s development.

The inaugural Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day, held on 17 December at Lancaster House, brought together more than 150 senior decision-makers from private equity firms, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, insurers, philanthropies, and development finance institutions and export credit agencies—marking a decisive shift from dialogue to execution.

The high-level event was hosted by the African Development Bank Group in partnership with UK government institutions, the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, UK Export Finance and British International Investment, reflecting a shared ambition to scale private capital flows into African economies.

Speaking at the opening, African Development Bank Group President Dr Sidi Ould Tah described the event as a natural continuation of the ADF-17 replenishment process and a decisive step toward addressing Africa’s estimated $402 billion annual development financing gap.

“We will build on recent engagements with development finance institutions, export credit agencies, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, and philanthropic partners to advance concrete initiatives under our vision for a New African Financial Architecture,” said Dr Ould Tah.

The Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day aligns with President Ould Tah’s Four Cardinal Points vision, which focuses on unlocking Africa’s capital potential, strengthening financial sovereignty, transforming demographic growth into a dividend, and delivering resilient infrastructure and value chains.

UK Minister for Development, Jenny Chapman said, “We are delighted that President Ould Tah decided to hold the first Private Capital Mobilisation Day here in London, recognising the critical role of the City of London in mobilising investment for Africa. The UK’s shifting role—from donor to investor—will support countries who want to grow their economies and ultimately ultimately exit the need for aid.”

The programme featured focused discussions on reshaping perceptions of risk in Africa, designing innovative financial platforms, and mobilising capital in fragile and frontier markets.

New analysis on the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database delivered by the Center for Global Development presented new evidence showing that long-term lending to African borrowers has historically been significantly less risky than commonly perceived.

Sector-focused discussions underscored the strategic role of healthcare and aviation in strengthening Africa’s economic resilience, productivity and integration. Participants were introduced to two flagship initiatives championed by the Bank Group and its partners:

– The Africa Medicines and Equipment Facility, developed in partnership with the Gates Foundation, will provide African countries with predictable, timely, and affordable financing to secure essential medicines and medical equipment.

– The Integrated Aviation Transformation Programme for Africa—supported by a dedicated blended-finance facility—aims to modernise and expand Africa’s aviation ecosystem—from airports and airlines to enabling services critical to trade, tourism, and regional integration.

In parallel, President Ould Tah convened a closed-door roundtable with senior executives from approximately 30 leading institutional investors to explore the launch of an Africa-focused Private Sector Innovation Lab. The proposed platform would serve as a dedicated space to co-create new financing instruments, partnership models, and risk-sharing solutions tailored to African markets.

The outcomes of the Africa Private Capital Mobilisation Day are captured in the London Communiqué, setting out clear commitments by the African Development Bank Group and its partners to scale private capital mobilisation for Africa.

Further work will go into setting out priority actions and implementation pathways to scale private capital mobilisation for Africa, turning ambition into scalable capital and risk mitigation solutions.


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FIRS says NIN, CAC Numbers to Serve as Tax IDs from 2026

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The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has announced that the National Identification Number (NIN) will automatically serve as the Tax Identification Number (TIN) for individual Nigerians beginning in 2026.

The clarification was issued on Monday through a public awareness campaign on the new tax laws shared by the Service on X.

According to the FIRS, registered businesses will also no longer need a separate Tax Identification Number, as their Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) registration numbers will now function as their official tax identifiers under the revised tax framework.

The announcement follows public concerns over aspects of the new tax laws that require a Tax ID for certain transactions, including the operation and ownership of bank accounts.

Providing further explanation, the FIRS said the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), scheduled to take effect in January 2026, mandates the use of a Tax ID for specified transactions. It, however, noted that the requirement is not entirely new, stressing that it has been in existence since the Finance Act of 2019 but has now been strengthened.

“The Tax ID unifies all Tax Identification Numbers previously issued by the FIRS and State Internal Revenue Services into a single identifier,” the Service said.

“For individuals, your NIN automatically serves as your Tax ID, while for registered companies, your CAC RC number is used. You do not need a physical card, as the Tax ID is a unique number linked directly to your identity.”

The FIRS explained that the new system is intended to simplify identification processes, eliminate duplication, close gaps that enable tax evasion, and promote fairness by ensuring that all individuals earning taxable income contribute accordingly.

The agency also urged Nigerians to ignore misinformation surrounding the reform, assuring the public that the new tax framework is designed to improve efficiency and transparency in tax administration.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed that banks will be required to request a TIN from all taxable Nigerians as part of the federal government’s new tax administration framework, which will take effect on January 1, 2026.


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