General News
What the Recent Oil Disruption Means for Nigeria
By Lukman Otunuga, senior,Research Analyst,FXTM
The unprecedented Oil disruption in Saudi Arabia in September shocked the markets and triggered multiple financial reactions for investors across the globe.
Oil prices exploded 20 percent higher on Monday September 16 after attacks on Saudi Oil fields caused disruptions of 5.7 million barrels per day, roughly five percent of global Oil supplies. Oil later gave back gains after Saudi Arabia pledged that Oil production would be up and running by the end of September.
However, there are doubts that the damage – which is thought to run into the hundreds of millions of Dollars – will be fixed so quickly.
Dynamic influencing Oil market swing back and forth
The uncertainty is also disrupting Oil prices, which spike intermittently before calming on data like the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report about a 2.4 million barrel build in Crude oil inventories on September 25.
On top of that, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add more concerns for the short-term future of Oil markets.
Going forward, Oil prices are expected to be more sensitive to negative supply shocks, at least in the short term. If the serious tensions between Iran and the US escalate, Oil prices may be supported with a degree of upside potential.
OPEC continues with its quest to stabilize markets
Another factor to consider is OPEC’s reaction and possible change of mind over its supply cut policy. As recently as September 12, OPEC persuaded Nigeria to join supply cuts to prevent a global glut from drastically undercutting prices and Oil revenues for Oil-producing countries. The supply-side circumstances have changed considerably since then.
Recent reports have revealed that OPEC’s oil output fell to an eight-year low in September, pumping 28.9 million barrels per day (bpd) which was down 750,000 bpd from August’s revised figure and lowest monthly total since 2011.
Should Saudi Arabia experience more attacks or take longer than expected to restore normal Oil production from the damaged facilities, OPEC may need to reconsider supply cuts and increase production so its members can meet global supply demand.
At the time of writing, Nigeria’s Light Sweet Crude Oil Kwa Ibo and Bonny Light are trading at their normal level of $3 above the Brent Crude benchmark because Saudi Arabia has pledged to be back to normal light Crude oil production levels by the end of September. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia has restored output to 11.3 million barrels per day but is relying on sales of heavy Crude oil. Should Saudi Arabia disappoint the market’s expectations, light sweet Crude oil prices may change in Nigeria’s favour.
Overall, given how Oil sales account for roughly 70 percent of government revenues and 90 percent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, if the recent disruption results in a net rise in Oil prices, it could offer short-term support to the nation.
Impact on Nigeria’s economic growth
As an emerging market energy exporter, the prospects of rising Oil prices should feed back into Nigeria’s economic growth. Higher Oil prices would boost the nation’s foreign exchange reserves, promote foreign exchange stability and boost government spending in economic infrastructure which in turn would be positive for growth.
On the other hand, Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary policy makers must always be on the lookout for inflationary pressures. In August, inflation in Nigeria fell to 11.02 percent, a 43-month low. But higher Oil prices may squeeze company and consumer transportation budgets, re-igniting inflation.
Higher Oil price could hit consumer spending
The flip side of higher Oil prices is the risk of rising inflation. This would likely drag on consumer spending and complicate central bank efforts to ease monetary policy, which may end up pressuring economic growth.
On a larger scale, the threat of a global recession lurks around the corner. Rising Oil prices could also threaten global growth with higher running costs.
While Nigeria and energy producers would welcome higher Oil prices, everyone will lose if unaffordable costs tip the global economy into recession.
Diversification remains the cure to Nigeria’s oil dependence
In September, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left interest rates unchanged at 13.5 percent. Movements in the Oil markets have a direct impact on CBN’s rate decisions, so I am closely watching developments in this area. Especially when considering how the CBN Governor wants inflation to slow to 9% or less before he considers cutting interest rates further.
Long term, for Nigeria to reduce exposure to Oil volatility, the quest for diversification needs to build momentum. Nigeria could source growth from non-Oil sectors like Agriculture and Services.
In conclusion, until diversification reduces Nigeria’s dependence on Oil revenues, the economy remains vulnerable to Oil price volatility and an uneven demand-supply equation.
Nigeria’s startup ecosystem received a fresh injection of momentum as top emerging ventures secured funding and investor attention at the iHatch National Demo Day, where Interface Africa clinched the highest prize of $15,000.
The 4th cohort of the NITDA–JICA-backed accelerator brought together founders, policymakers, and venture stakeholders in Abuja, showcasing innovations ranging from clean-energy financing and digital food marketplaces to next-gen fintech tools.
The startups went rounds of running through state-level selections and regional competition. iHatch was established in 2021 as a strategic partnership to create an enabling environment for young Nigerians to develop and scale their innovative solutions.
The iHatch National Demo Day (4th Cohort), is an initiative by NITDA and JICA which provides a clear pathway for homegrown talent to contribute significantly to economic diversification and digital transformation.
After rigorous selection processes, the top founders converged to pitch their innovations, recognised the standout performers, which are:
Interface Africa with $15,000, the firm is driving Nigeria’s clean energy transition by enabling structured and affordable solar financing.
Ahioma with $12,000, the firm enhances food accessibility with a digital marketplace connecting consumers directly to trusted vendors.
Linia Finance with $10,000, the firm is helping Nigerians take control of their finances with tools for budgeting, tracking, and smart money planning.
Chapta got a laptop reward. They delivering an offline-capable school application ensuring consistent, accessible learning for students everywhere.
Softdrop also got a laptop reward, they solve logistics challenges through a modern delivery platform designed for speed, convenience, and efficiency.
Fidelity Bank Plc, a leading financial institution, will host a free virtual training on the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 (NTA) as part of its commitment to helping small businesses prepare for the upcoming legislation.
Fidelity Bank
The masterclass is scheduled for 10:00 AM (Nigerian time) on Friday, 12 December 2025. It will provide participants with clear insights into changes in the tax framework, the impact on income and business operations, and practical steps to avoid penalties in 2026.
Attendees will also learn strategies to stay ahead in an evolving regulatory environment.
The Nigerian government enacted major tax reforms on 26 June 2025 when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signed four tax bills into law.
These Acts will take effect on 1 January 2026 and represent a significant overhaul of the country’s tax system.
The reforms aim to modernize and harmonize Nigeria’s tax framework, improve revenue generation, broaden the tax base, and create clearer rules for individuals, businesses, and government agencies.
“Our decision to host this masterclass reflects our commitment to empowering businesses with the right information ahead of the commencement of the new tax regime.
“Information is money and a well-informed business owner is already steps ahead in the race to success.
“This is why we are bringing experts to provide accurate details and demystify the tax act,” said Osita Ede, Divisional Head, Product Development, Fidelity Bank Plc.
Interested participants can register via https://bit.ly/2026TaxLawMasterclass .
PalmPay, Nigeria’s leading digital banking platform, has renewed its commitment to deepening financial inclusion across the country. At the CeBIH Annual Conference 2025, themed “Reimagining Financial Inclusion through Cultural Shifts in Consumer Credit,” PalmPay’s Managing Director, Chika Nwosu, urged industry players to deepen financial inclusion by embracing community-aligned solutions and customer-centric innovations that can better serve Nigeria’s underserved and unbanked populations.
Speaking during a panel session titled “Social Inclusion, A Veritable Tool for Financial Inclusion,” Chika Nwosu joined other industry leaders to share insights on strengthening participation among women, rural dwellers, low-income earners, and other financially excluded groups.
Chika Nwosu highlighted PalmPay’s commitment to inclusive finance through its 500,000-strong agent network, which enables seamless cash-in/cash-out services for unbanked users across Nigeria. He also emphasised the importance of PalmPay’s USSD platform, 861#, which allows users with basic phones or limited internet access to perform essential financial transactions.
“Financial inclusion goes beyond access; it must be equitable and tailored to real-life needs,” Chika Nwosu said. He shared how PalmPay leverages behavioural insights to design impactful services, including affordable health insurance, reliable bill payments, merchant solutions, and automated savings features that support financial discipline among users.
The session further examined the role of grassroots agents and community touchpoints in driving last-mile adoption. Chika Nwosu noted that PalmPay’s widespread community presence continues to build trust and encourage excluded populations to embrace digital financial tools.
The session was moderated by Ronke Kuye of the CeBIH Advisory Council and featured representatives from E-Doc Online, SmartCash Payment Service Bank, SANEF, and EFINA.
PalmPay reaffirmed its commitment to driving accessible, secure, and inclusive financial services for all Nigerians. PalmPay is a leading digital banking platform driving financial inclusion and economic empowerment in underserved emerging markets. Through its secure, user-friendly, and inclusive suite of financial services, PalmPay empowers individuals and businesses with tools to manage and grow their money.
PalmPay offers a comprehensive range of products, including mobile payments, savings, and micro-insurance via its app and mobile money agent network.
Since launching in Nigeria in 2019 under a Mobile Money Operator license, the platform has grown to over 35 million app users. PalmPay has operations in Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, and Bangladesh.
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