General News
Will Nigeria’s economy gather momentum during the second half of 2019?
The news that Nigeria’s economy cooled down to 2.05 percent in the first quarter of 2019 compared to 2.38 percent in Q4’18 has left investors wondering about the chances of growth gathering momentum during the second half of the year. On the one hand, it’s an encouraging sign we’ve seen the fastest first-quarter growth since 2015, driven mainly by the non-oil sector which grew 2.47 percent. On the other hand, the Oil sector shrank by 2.4 percent, sending a worrying signal that the sector isn’t doing as well as it should be even amid rising Oil prices.
It is becoming increasingly clear that economic growth is unlikely to reach the ambitious Economic Recover and Growth Plan (ERGP) target of seven percent but it may hit the Central Bank of Nigeria’s target of 2.47 percent. For this to happen, the growth trend in the Oil sector would need to rebound and the services sector would need to sustain its current strength. Added momentum could stem from Oil prices should they hit a bullish streak going forward, supporting the economy as the Oil trade still accounts for a handsome chunk of the nation’s foreign exchange earnings.
There are other potential areas of growth. Regionally there is a significant development which could increase economic efficiencies and trade within Africa – the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) which comes into effect on May 30. Although Nigeria hasn’t yet joined AfCFTA, there’s still a chance it will do so, once discussions are completed with stakeholders. In addition to opening intra-Africa trade relations, the AfCFTA gives multi-national companies the chance to set up in one African country and be passported to another 52 countries within a common market made up of over one billion people. Increased access to foreign expertise and investment could improve local manufacturing and processing systems while driving more growth and jobs creation. In the best-case scenario, standardised trading agreements across AfCFTA may open up trading channels which could lead to increased company sales, revenues and profits. Nigeria sells just 12.7 percent of its total exports to other African countries, so if the treaty is ratified there’s scope for increased government and company revenues from a boost in trade.
In general, there needs to be a stronger push in diversifying away from Oil reliance to other sources of sustainable growth. An important part of sustainable growth is investment sentiment and the current economic stability along with easing inflationary pressures which may lead to a more dovish Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) monetary policy by way of interest rate cuts. If so, a reduction in interest rates would stimulate borrowing and investment from local businesses, which in turn would support economic growth. A more robust economy plus foreign exchange reserves rising towards $45 billion would likely provide ammunition for the CBN to defend the Naira.
Another factor impacting on Nigeria’s recovery is the external threat of the US-China trade negotiations which could end up pressuring Oil prices if the result is a global slowdown, meaning less demand for Oil. The USD is staying strong amid the trade tensions and should they intensify further, they will hit emerging markets where it hurts – in their currency exchanges. This would undermine the Naira while pressuring consumer spending and on top of that, falling Oil prices would likely dent government revenues.
Looking ahead, there is scope for Nigeria’s economy to gather momentum in the second half of the year, provided some key basics of growth are kept in focus: supportive monetary policy; keeping consumer spending healthy; sustaining investor confidence; and improving economic infrastructure, particularly in the Oil sector. Even if the risks stemming from US-China trade disputes are out of Nigeria’s hands, shoring up the domestic economy could help it weather any storms. The worst-case alternative is less attractive. If a global slowdown is triggered due to the trade tensions, economic growth in Nigeria may follow suit, meaning the CBN will face more difficult challenges to support the Naira and wider economy through monetary policy.
Federal government recently received a proposed protocol agreement from India that could pave the way for agricultural cooperation between the two countries.
Abishek Singh, India’s high commissioner to Nigeria, announced the proposal recently n Abuja during the India-Nigeria Business Forum on Agriculture and Allied Sectors.
New Delhi’s proposed cooperation would support Nigeria’s food security efforts, with the goal of reducing post-harvest losses by nearly 50% and expanding agricultural processing.
It would also cover technology transfers, mechanization, financing solutions and capacity building.
Abuja has opened similar discussions with China.
Only recently, Mukhtar Muhammed, permanent secretary at the Ministry of Innovation, Science and Technology, said Nigeria wanted to deepen scientific and technological cooperation with Beijing in agriculture.
The discussions with China have focused on developing low-cost, solar-powered cold storage facilities and transferring food-processing technologies.
Nigeria, also wants to work with Chinese research institutes to develop infrastructure that can improve the preservation of perishable products.
Nigeria’s outreach to its Asian partners addresses a major problem for the agricultural sector.
The Bank of Agriculture (BoA) estimates that Africa’s most populous country loses 30 million to 40 million tons of food each year before it reaches consumers.
Those losses are worth an average of about N3.5 trillion ($2.5 billion) annually, according to data the institution presented at a workshop in Kaduna in July 2026.
Perishable products are particularly vulnerable, according to local media reports, with fruits and vegetables accounting for an estimated 40% to 50% of total losses.
The government has already launched its own response to the problem.
Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) indicted the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) and other ministries over administrative lapses that allowed the fictitious Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council (PFIPC) to operate.
Musa Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, stated that NITDA, alongside the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (OSGF), the Budget Office, and other bodies, failed to carry out adequate due diligence and standard operating procedures.
ICPC said however, clarified that the findings pointed to severe internal control weaknesses and administrative negligence rather than active official complicity by NITDA and the other affected agencies.
The briefing followed a 30-day investigation ordered by the president on July 7 into allegations surrounding the purported presidential council.
The commission also cleared the presidency and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) of any wrongdoing but blamed institutional lapses in several ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs).
Aliyu said investigators established that Adeniyi Adeyemi, the director-general, was never appointed by the federal government and that the PFIPC had no legal existence.
“As you may recall, on the 7th of July, Mr. President directed the ICPC to conduct an investigation into the fake Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council and submit a report within 30 days,” he said.
“Today, exactly within the stipulated period, we have submitted an interim report based on our interactions with all stakeholders involved.”
According to Aliyu, Tinubu directed the commission to make its findings public in the interest of transparency and accountability.
He said the investigation found that Adeyemi’s purported appointment letter was forged.
“It has been established that Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew was never appointed by the Federal Government or any authority whatsoever,” he said.
“The Presidential Foreign Investment Promotion Council, which sometimes they called the Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council, was never established by any law, executive order or any valid instrument of government.
“The appointment letter presented by Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew was completely forged alongside similar documents used to perpetuate the illegal activities of the fake agency.”
Aliyu stated that a purported government gazette used to legitimise the organisation was also fabricated.
“If you recall, there was a gazette which he used to support the fake agency. That gazette is an illegal document that never passed through the processes prescribed by law,” he stated.
“Our investigation found that the office used by the fake agency was the office of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council. The office was broken into and access was gained illegally. That was how he was able to operate from there.”
Aliyu also revealed that investigators uncovered two additional fictitious government agencies allegedly created by the suspect — the FCT Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA) and the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency/Public-Private Partnership (FIPA-PPP).
According to him, fake legislative instruments were used to create the agencies and open bank accounts.
Despite the elaborate scheme, the ICPC chairman said the investigation found no evidence that federal government funds were disbursed to the fake council.
“Our investigation found that no funds of the federal government were approved or disbursed to the fake PFIPC,” he said.
“We also discovered no weaknesses in the systems of the State House or the Central Bank of Nigeria during our investigation. The fake appointment letter did not originate from the presidency.
“Our investigation found that some public officers failed to carry out due diligence and failed to comply with standard operating procedures in their ministries and departments. That gave him the opportunity to carry out these illegal acts.”
Nigeria tax system is build on taxing prosperity not poverty, according to Dr. Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman, Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).
Dr. Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman, Nigeria Revenue Service
Adedeji, also dismissed the insinuation that the government’s tax reform is aimed at extracting money from Nigerians .
He said the essence of reform is creating an economic environment where individuals and businesses can prosper.
Dr. Adedeji made the clarifications on Sunday night while appearing on Channels Television’s Politics Today, where he defended the administration’s tax reforms and addressed concerns over rising government revenue amid the economic hardship facing Nigerians.
According to him, the government’s objective is to tax the fruits of investment rather than the investment itself.
“For us at Nigeria Tax, we are not there to extract. Our focus is not revenue. I don’t want to tax poverty. I’m to tax the fruit, not the seed, and I’m to tax the return, not investment.”
Adedeji explained that the government would generate more revenue as businesses became more profitable, without necessarily increasing the tax burden on individuals and companies.
He said a company that made N100 in profit could generate N30 in tax revenue for the government, but if its profit increased to N200 or N300, government revenue would rise accordingly.
“So, if I want to make more, I must work for you to make more. And that is why it is in the best interest of us in Nigeria Revenue Service that businesses are doing well, individuals are doing well,” he said.
He said the approach was consistent with President Bola Tinubu’s economic agenda, which seeks to remove barriers to investment and create a more conducive environment for businesses to operate and expand.
Adedeji cited reforms in the electricity sector as part of the government’s efforts to stimulate economic activity.
He noted that the Electricity Act had devolved powers to state governments to generate, transmit and distribute electricity, arguing that improved power supply would boost production and productivity across the economy.
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