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Will the Naira Ever Return to its Former Glory?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

There was a time when the Naira was worth almost twice as much as the Dollar and equivalent to the British Pound.

Almost three decades later, the local currency is valued at N407 per Dollar and N559 per Pound on the spot rate, N380 per Dollar on the official CBN website. It does not end here. On the black market, the Naira is trading at a paltry N482 per Dollar and as low as N678 to the Pound. Over the past few years, the story defining the Naira’s fall from glory has revolved around multiple exchanges, contradicting statements from officials, Oil prices, shaky economic fundamentals, Dollar scarcity, and pegged exchanges.

Chart Bloomberg Naira spot

Many major institutions have urged Nigeria to unify the multiple exchanges in an effort to promote transparency. The whole drama behind multiple exchanges was triggered by the crude oil crash in 2014 that saw the commodity tumbled almost 50%. Given how more than 90% of foreign-exchange earnings are from oil revenues, the heavy selloff in oil prices exposed Nigeria’s economy to downside shocks.

Rather than devalue the Naira in 2017, the central bank decided to enforce multiple rates for different transactions. There is one rate for government transactions, one rate for investors and exports, another for travellers and SME’s. Indeed, the intention behind this was to improve liquidity and boost Dollar inflows. However, looking at the Naira’s valuation today, ongoing issues with Dollar scarcity and untamed inflation – this move may have done more harm than good.

2020 was an incredibly challenging year for Africa’s largest economy. Although the economy expanded by 0.11% during the final quarter of 2020, full-year growth contracted by 1.92%. As oil revenues evaporated, the Nigerian Naira was devalued twice. Indeed, a weaker Naira would boost government revenue from oil exports – an encouraging development for the economy. If the Naira depreciates, this could boost revenues from crude oil which is sold in Dollar but converted in Naira. Despite the weakening of the spot and black-market rate, the central bank of Nigeria has left the Naira pegged to N380 on its official website.

For the Naira to return to its former glory, could a free-floating currency be the solution? Vice President Yemi Osinbajo said the government is committed to adopting a flexible exchange rate. While an artificially strong exchange could benefit Nigeria based on the fact that most products are imported, the negative impacts outweigh the positive. This continues to be reflected in the Naira’s valuation and health of the economy. When considering how a hefty chunk of foreign exchange reserves is acquired from oil sales, falling oil prices could complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s effort to defend the Naira.

Nigeria continues to face pressure from major institutions to reform its foreign exchange policy with confusion around the country’s multiple exchange rates haunting investor attraction. The question is whether Nigeria will be able to handle the aftermath from a free-floating Naira? The country spends roughly 70% of its revenue servicing public debt. A devaluation of the Naira could mean higher interest rate costs on the Dollar element of Nigeria’s debt will jump in naira terms. The price of electricity and gasoline may be impacted, something that will hit consumers and ultimately impact the economy.

If the natural forces of supply and demand are allowed the determine the equilibrium value of the official Naira exchange rate, this could result in a steep depreciation of the local currency. The rates in the black-market exchange are a testament to this. Such a development could turbocharge inflationary pressures and prompt the Central Bank of Nigeria to tighten monetary policy.

The idea of a unified exchange rate could bolster Nigeria’s economic outlook, offer transparency and rekindle investor attraction towards the country’s assets. But it remains unknown if or when the Naira could return to its former glory, especially when factoring in the domestic economic conditions at home and across the globe.

 

 


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General News

Security Forces Probe Use of Drones by Terrorists

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The military high command at the weekend said it has commenced a full investigation into the use of drones by terrorists to carry out attacks.

Security Forces Probe Use of Drones by Terrorists

This is part of ongoing efforts to end insurgency in the country.

Major-General Michael Onoja, director of Defence Media Operations (DDMO), , disclosed this in Abuja while briefing defence correspondents on the achievements of troops of the Armed Forces of Nigeria and other security agencies across various theatres of operation nationwide.

He said the investigation is being conducted in collaboration with other relevant security agencies to identify the sources of the drones and halt their deployment by non-state actors.

According to him, concrete actions are expected to emerge in the coming days or months, as agencies with the technical capacity to counter drone deployment have been fully engaged.

“We have reached an advanced stage in taking measures, in conjunction with other federal government agencies, to trace where these drones are coming from. I believe that in the next couple of days or months, concrete action will emerge on what we intend to do,” Onoja said.

In recent months, terrorists operating in the North East have increasingly deployed sophisticated drones in attacks on civilians and security personnel, raising concerns over the evolving tactics of insurgent groups.

The development has also generated questions among security experts and the public over how the drones are being sourced and the channels through which they enter the country.

Responding to allegations circulating on social media that soldiers manning checkpoints in Bauchi State were being compelled to remit weekly sums to their commanders, Onoja said the claims remained mere allegations.

He stressed that the military is a transparent institution and assured that investigations would be conducted if verifiable details were provided.

On the return of Nigerian refugees from Cameroon, Onoja said the development reflects the success of military operations in restoring security to affected communities.

“The military, in conjunction with the Federal Government, has done everything within its capacity to ensure the necessary security in those areas. The return of refugees is a clear measure of operational success,” he said.

On operational achievements, Onoja disclosed that within the month of January 2026 under review, troops across various theatres killed several terrorists, arrested 452 suspected terrorists, kidnappers and other criminal elements, rescued about 284 kidnapped victims, while 124 terrorists and their family members surrendered to troops.

He added that troops also recorded major successes against oil theft, recovering 210,300 litres of crude oil, 66,725 litres of diesel, 660 litres of kerosene and 5,000 litres of petrol.

In addition, 53 illegal refining sites were discovered and destroyed during the period under review.

Providing updates from various theatres, Onoja said that in the North East, troops under Joint Task Force Operation HADIN KAI sustained operational momentum by denying Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), and Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad terrorists freedom of action.

He said ground troops, working alongside the Air Component, hybrid forces and local security groups, conducted aggressive operations, neutralising terrorists, arresting informants and logistics suppliers, recovering weapons, and dismantling terrorist networks.

“During the month, troops conducted operations in Gwoza, Damboa, Mobbar, Askira Uba and Konduga Local Government Areas of Borno State. Similar operations were carried out in Michika and Damaturu LGAs of Adamawa and Yobe States, respectively. During these encounters, scores of terrorists were neutralised, 17 were arrested, and 12 kidnapped victims were rescued. Recovered weapons and suspects are in custody for further action,” he said.

In Plateau State, Onoja said troops of Operation ENDURING PEACE responded to distress calls on terrorist activities, conducting offensive operations across Plateau and parts of Kaduna State.

According to him, several extremists were neutralised during firefights, 86 other criminals were arrested, and 24 kidnapped victims rescued, while arms and ammunition were recovered.

In the South-South, Onoja said troops of Operation DELTA SAFE intensified operations against crude oil theft, sea piracy and militancy.

“They dismantled 53 illegal refining sites, arrested 81 oil thieves and other criminals, and recovered assorted arms and ammunition. Air reconnaissance missions also led to the interception and destruction of vessels involved in the illegal syphoning of petroleum products across the Niger Delta,” he said.

He added that troops of Operation UDO KA recorded notable gains across Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo States, with over 80 militants surrendering, 72 arrests made, and 11 kidnapped victims rescued.

Eight Cameroonian nationals were also rescued during cross-border patrols along the Bakassi waterways, while a significant reduction in crime was recorded across the region.

Reaffirming the Armed Forces’ resolve to sustain pressure on criminal elements, Onoja said the military would continue to strengthen inter-agency collaboration and work closely with local communities to ensure lasting peace and stability.

He reiterated the Chief of Defence Staff’s mantra, “See something, say something,” urging Nigerians to provide timely and credible information to security agencies.

“With the continued support of the media and the Nigerian public, the Armed Forces of Nigeria remain confident of defeating all threats to national security,” he said.

 


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First Trustees to Host 8th Islamic Estate Planning Clinic in Abuja

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First Trustees, a subsidiary of First HoldCo Plc., and a leading provider of trust solutions for individuals, corporates, and government institutions, is proud to announce its 8th Islamic Estate Planning Clinic, scheduled to take place on February 7, 2026, in Abuja, Nigeria.

This highly anticipated forum is designed to educate and empower participants on structuring Islamic wealth transfer in today’s evolving world. The Clinic will provide practical guidance on how to secure and preserve legacies in accordance with Islamic principles, ensuring that wealth is managed and passed on responsibly across generations.

The event is being hosted in partnership with The Metropolitan Law Firm and will feature an esteemed lineup of speakers, including: Professor Isah Ali Pantami, Former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy; Professor Adam Abubakar, ESQ, Professor of Islamic Banking and Finance, Yobe State University; Professor Dauda Abubakar, Founder and Director, Dawood Research Institute; HE Aisha Babangida, Chairperson, Better Life Program for the African Rural Woman; Ummahani Ahmad Amin, Managing Partner, Metropolitan Law Firm; Barrister Mohammed Yunusa, Partner at The Metropolitan Law Firm; Ismail Rufai, Managing Director/CEO, One17 Financial Services Limited; Mutiat Olatunji, Al-ameen Trustees Limited; and Rotimi Obende, Head, Private Trust, First Trustees Limited.

Together, these thought leaders will share insights on the importance of Estate Planning within Islamic law, highlighting strategies for safeguarding family wealth and ensuring continuity.

First Trustees remains committed to providing innovative trust solutions that help clients preserve their legacies while staying true to their values.


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Nigeria’s Data Privacy Economy Hits ₦16.2bn – NDPC Commissioner

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Nigeria’s data privacy ecosystem has generated an estimated ₦16.2 billion in less than two years, according to the National Commissioner of the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC), Dr Vincent Olatunji.

Nigeria’s Data Privacy Economy Hits ₦16.2bn - NDPC Commissioner

NDPC

Speaking during a virtual press conference at a capacity-building engagement held at the Marriott Hotel, Ikeja, Lagos, Olatunji said the figure reflects the growing importance of data protection in Nigeria’s digital economy.

He noted that the Commission’s initiatives have created jobs, boosted compliance, and strengthened trust in digital transactions.

Olatunji explained that Nigeria’s journey in data protection began in 2019 with the establishment of the NDPR framework, which later evolved into the NDPC.

Since then, the Commission has focused on building awareness, strengthening compliance, and creating a robust ecosystem that integrates technology, collaboration, and sustainability.

He highlighted Nigeria’s active role in the Network of African Data Protection Authorities (NARPA), stressing that the country has emerged as a continental leader in privacy regulation.

In December 2025, the NDPC won the Picasso Award as Africa’s most outstanding data protection authority, a recognition he said underscores Nigeria’s growing influence in the global privacy space.

Responding to questions from journalists, Olatunji assured that the Commission is committed to protecting the rights of data subjects, including the ability to correct or ratify personal details on government platforms.

He urged citizens to report violations to the NDPC for immediate intervention.

On concerns about international data transfers, particularly agreements involving Nigeria and foreign governments, Olatunji said the Commission would continue to monitor such arrangements to safeguard national interests and ensure compliance with data protection laws.

He concluded by stressing that data privacy is central to Nigeria’s future economy, calling for sustained investment in human capital, technology, and regulatory frameworks to build trust and confidence in the digital space.


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