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FXTM Analysis: Markets Behaving Calmly as UK Election Aftermath Begins

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FXTM Vice President of Market Research, Jameel Ahmad comments on the financial markets following the UK general election result.

All major headlines and attention are still surrounding the United Kingdom following the uncertain outcome to the UK election at the end of last week.

 The British Pound appears to have stabilized and is trying to maintain its footing around 1.27, after suffering a decline just above 2% at one point following it becoming clear that the UK was heading for a hung parliament.

There is a viewpoint that the Pound should remain supported over the near-term despite the uncertainty, due to the likelihood that the forming of a coalition government would encourage Theresa May to cool it down when it came to her previous hardline approach towards the European Union and the imminent Brexit negotiations.

The possibility that Theresa May will be left with no choice but to adopt a diplomatic approach towards Brexit is what has been seen as the most supportive factor for the Pound over the near-term. It’s not something that I am buying into however, and I think this might be a short-lived consolidation around 1.27.

I personally still see downside risks for the Sterling and see the potential for the market to become encouraged towards selling in the likelihood that the UK is set to begin negotiations next week and looks very unprepared for such complex negotiations.

The whole reason for the UK election in the first place was so that Theresa May would have more powers to influence the Brexit process, but not only has this play backfired, the UK looks more unprepared than ever to go head-to-head with the EU as it currently stands. I personally remain bearish on the Sterling.

What was noticeable when European trading commenced on Monday was that the FTSE dipped lower, which some could attribute to the uncertainty in the aftermath of the UK election. It is also worth pointing however that the FTSE looked under pressure around the same time that the Pound was at that point consolidating a little higher, which could be the inverse Sterling/FTSE relationship that we have talked about in the past.

There has been a trend over the past year where increased Sterling purchasing sentiment can encourage selling in the FTSE and selling momentum in the Sterling can support the FTSE, which we saw once again at the end of the UK election. It certainly is a strange correlation, but it is thought to be supported by the mindset that when corporations on the FTSE exchange their earnings back into Sterling they are left with more currency.

While the attention around the United Kingdom is by all accounts going to remain centred around the political uncertainty, there is also key economic data to come out over the week ahead. The latest inflation reading, employment data and BoE interest rate decision are all scheduled to be announced in the next few days.

When it comes to the jobs data and inflation numbers, the major headline will be whether further indications are provided that price pressures are increasing at a faster pace than wage growth. This is seen as a crucial factor in the possibility that consumer spending might be pressured over the upcoming months.

By most accounts the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged as they have been for nearly a year, but it will be interesting to see if Governor Carney comments on the current political instability and what it means to the monetary policy outlook for the United Kingdom.

Time For Another US Interest Rate Rise?
Away from the United Kingdom and the ongoing political uncertainty that is dominating attention, the Federal Reserve is largely expected to raise US interest rates on Wednesday evening.

Most of the expected US interest rate rise has already been priced into the Dollar, but the US currency might find support in the run up to the Federal Reserve decision.

Will the probable US interest rate rise direct the Dollar over the longer-term? Not really, and as soon as the Fed most likely pulls the trigger on another rate rise on Wednesday, attention will circle towards when the central bank will next raise interest rates as it’s expected that another one or two will be announced before the end of the year.

Any hesitance from the Federal Reserve when it comes to providing clarity on its future monetary policy outlook and interest rate circle will likely weigh on the Dollar as investors want clarity.

What About Emerging Market Currencies?
The likelihood that the Federal Reserve will be raising US interest rates this coming week might put a pause to the recent rally we have witnessed in emerging market currencies, like the Malaysian Ringgit and Chinese Yuan.

Whether the emerging market currencies can later brush away the probable US interest rate hike this Wednesday will depend on the timing of the next interest rate rise from the United States, which by most accounts knowing the previous language from the Federal Reserve, will not include precise timing for the next rate increase and later support the emerging currencies. By most accounts the Dollar topped a long time ago, and this means those emerging currencies that were heavily pressured in the six months following US election day can continue to push on and attract buyers.

Update on WTI Oil
After a pressured couple of weeks following the OPEC meeting, WTI Oil has found support at $45 and is expected to attempt a recovery from here.There is still a risk that US inventories/shale production will offset the efforts from OPEC Non-members when it comes to trimming the oversupply in the markets, however Oil looks oversold at $45 to my eye until we can see clear signs that there is increased inventories from the United States.   


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FG to Receive $2.25Bn Fresh Loan From World Bank on June 13

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Federal government will receive fresh loan funding from the World Bank, with approval expected for loans totalling $2.25billion on June 13, 2024.

FG to Receive $2.25Bn Fresh Loan From World Bank on June 13

 

Recall that Wale Edun, minister of Finance, at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank last month, had announced that the nation had qualified for processing a loan, described as ‘virtually a grant’ of $2.25bn from the World Bank at one per cent interest rate.

He stated, “We have qualified for the processing just this week to the Board of Directors of the World Bank of a total package of $2.25bn of what you can call ‘the closest you can get to a free lunch’- virtually a grant. It’s for about 10- 20 years moratorium and about one per cent interest.”

The package, approved by the World Bank Board of Directors, offers a 40-year term with a 10-year moratorium and a nominal one-percent interest rate.

According to the latest information on the World Bank website, the funding will be received via two major development projects.

The first project is the Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilization to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing, which is set to receive $1.5bn.

The second project, NG Accelerating Resource Mobilization Reforms Programme-for-Results, has proposed funding of $750m.

It was also indicated that the government might reintroduce the excises on telecom services and the EMT levy on electronic money transfers through the Nigerian Banking System, among other taxes.

 

 

 


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Cybersecurity Levy Meant for Financial Institutions, Telcos – Senate:

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Senator Shehu Umar Buba, chairman, Senate Committee on National Security and Intelligence, on Sunday, clarified that the recently imposed cybersecurity levy announced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is not targeted at individuals operating bank accounts.

Cybersecurity Levy Meant for Financial Institutions, Telcos – Senate:

Rather, the senator, who sponsored the amendment bill in a statement in Abuja, explained that the levy is aimed explicitly at financial institutions and telecommunication companies.

He said the financial institutions and telecommunication firms are most vulnerable sectors to financial crimes and cyber fraud to enhance cybersecurity measures and national security in the country.

He noted that: “The relevant section of the Cybercrime Act is very clear about the businesses that are required to pay the levy, not the citizens.

“The Act is very explicit about who is responsible for the payment, not Nigerian citizens or individuals.

“The relevant section of the Cybercrime Act 2015 listed the businesses required to pay the levy: telecommunications companies, Internet Service Providers, banks, insurance companies, the Nigerian Stock Exchange and other financial Institutions.

“The organisations in the sectors have been listed in previous circulars by the Central Bank of Nigeria, especially in 2018. The new circular by the CBN further provided many exemptions.”

Buba also clearly explained the amount payable as a cybersecurity levy.

According to him, “It is either 0.005 or 0.5 per cent arithmetically. The figure in the principal act was 0.005 as a fraction, which was converted to the percentage that became 0.5 per cent in the amendment.

“Therefore, the statistics in fractions and percentages are the same.

“The legislator highlighted that the passage of the amendment bill was a collaborative effort of various stakeholders.

“The passage of the amendment bill was a collaborative effort involving the government, industry players, civil society and academia.

“They expressed their contributions and actively  participated in the public hearing before the endorsement by the two chambers of the National Assembly.

“After rigorous processes, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu signed the bill into law in February 2024.”

The senator acknowledged the concerns of Nigerians, civil groups and other stakeholders about the current economic situation.

He was reassured that implementing the cybersecurity law was not meant to punish citizens.

He emphasised that the levy was a collective effort to protect national security and the economy, with the financial burden primarily falling on the specified businesses.

The Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc.) (Amendment) Act 2024, which President Tinubu signed into law in February, imposes a 0.5 per cent (0.005) levy equivalent to half the value of all electronic transactions by the businesses specified in the Second Schedule of the Act.

The levy will be remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund, which the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) shall administer.

The circular announcing the levy also exempted some transactions from the cybercrime levy.

They included loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, intra-account transfers and other financial transactions.

 


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9PSB Inspires Startup’s Growth @ Tech Entrepreneurs Conference

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9 Payment Service Bank (9PSB), Nigeria’s digital payment service bank, focused on financial inclusion has encouraged the growth and development of more Information Technological startups by sponsoring the just concluded Kano TechPrenuer Conference. A Tech entrepreneur gathering held at Meena Event Centre, Lodge Road, Kano.

The flagship event, which was organized by IMH Global with the theme: Empowering Tomorrow: Innovating in the Digital Space, aimed at bringing together tech enthusiasts, entrepreneurs, and innovators to explore emerging trends, share insights, and enhance networking opportunities within the technology ecosystem, with a focus on fostering innovation and entrepreneurship.

Speaking during his presentation, Akeem Salam, Group Head Business Development and Strategy, 9 Payment Service Bank (9PSB), highlighted the huge contributions of technology and its innovations to different fields of human endeavors, how it has transformed the way operations and services are being rendered especially in finance and banking sector.

Today, banking services are all digitalized, which has paved way for the emergence of financial technology companies and payment service banks to operates seamlessly and drive financial services to the banked and the unbanked in every nook and cranny of the country; as well as facilitate financial inclusion for all Nigerians leveraging on mobile technology and communication.

‘’We have made tremendous efforts by contributing to closing the gap in financial inclusion by delivering our services to various market segments with our tailor- made products and services such as our virtual accounts, Bank9ja mobile App, USSD services, PoS services to merchants, ever dependable agency banking; driven by our Service Location Partners and bills payment as a service made easier once you have our platform available on your mobile devices. In addition, we collaborate with other industry players to ensure we deliver on our mandate.

“Remember, collaboration is indispensable as it opens opportunities in the industry by helping the journey to be a smooth ride. Therefore, we have been partnering financial service providers to ensure we leave no stone unturned. Our products and services are flexible and user-friendly, pricing and charges are of industry standard, Akeem added.”

‘’Asides from delivering seamless payment services, the Central Bank of Nigeria also mandate us to drive financial literacy, to ensure that basic financial education is extended to both young and adult Nigerians. This of course, we have been doing through our diverse services and programmes.

“We will continue to support the development, growth and innovations of startups and tech initiatives as this will impact the society greatly. Therefore, I enjoin you all to be focused and committed in your career and businesses,” he remarked.

Kano TechPrenuer Conference is an annual gathering of enthusiastic individuals in the tech industry. The event brought together IT consultants, web developers, social media marketers/managers, affiliate marketers to interact, upskill, collaborate, and chart the way forward. The event served as a nexus for innovation, providing a space for learning, networking, and exploring the latest trends and strategies in the tech entrepreneurial ecosystem within Kano State.

 


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