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UK Inflation Reaches Highest Level Since Nov 2014

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Market headlines are continuing to focus on the UK economy after data earlier today showed that inflation accelerated in July with CPI rising to an annualised 0.6%.

This week represents the first true week of economic data from the United Kingdom following the unexpected Brexit outcome of the EU referendum vote, but a few shocks are already being heard after the news that import prices increased at the strongest rate since 2011.

The news that import prices have increased by such a staggering amount shows that the collapse in Sterling is already having an impact on imports and should feed through and lift inflationary pressures over the upcoming months.

There is now an emergence of expectations that headline inflation could overshoot the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target over the coming quarters, which would provide a dilemma for the BoE as the central bank is being forced into an easing bias as the UK growth outlook weakens.

Usually when there is a risk that inflation could exceed a central bank target, the respective central bank would find themselves under pressure to ease pressure by lifting interest rates higher, however this not an option for the BoE who are having to ease policy in the aftermath of the EU referendum outcome.   

While the GBPUSD has moved higher throughout trading on Tuesday, this is more likely to be a short correction following a recent period of significant losses.

The gains in the GBPUSD are likely to find themselves capped somewhere between 1.3020-50 at this point in time, while the risks for the pair remain skewed to the downside  for the future, as the UK economic outlook continues to deteriorate.

Sterling was unable to benefit from substantial weakness in the Dollar since the end of last week, which points out that the overall buying sentiment towards the British Pound remains very weak.

Dollar slump aiding EURUSD
Dollar weakness, following a heavily disappointing US retail sales release and another resumption of crumbling US interest rate expectations, has resulted in the Dollar drifting sharply lower against the majority of its trading partners.

The crumbling of the USD has catapulted the Eurodollar to its highest level since late June at 1.1275. As US interest rates continue to be pushed back the Eurodollar can continue to drive higher, although any move between 1.1300 and 1.1320 could expose an over-extension and trigger the alert of sellers.

Expectations over the US Federal Reserve being able to raise US interest rates in 2016 seem to be being pushed back by the minute, while investors will be awaiting  further clues around the intentions of the Federal Reserve in 2016 when the US central bank releases its latest meeting minutes tomorrow.

Although the Federal Reserve is trying to maintain a public stance towards raising US interest rates, you just have to monitor the ongoing resumption of crumbling rate expectations to gain an understanding that investors are not confident at all that the Federal Reserve will realistically carry through with the pledge to raise interest rates.

Japanese Yen remains trader’s choice
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to wake up to concerns on Wednesday morning after the USDJPY fell below the highly psychological 100 level just moments ago.

There is a lot of speculation that the BoJ are ready to intervene in the markets as the USDJPY approaches 100, but the real concern for the central bank must be that traders are constantly attracted towards the Yen despite everyone knowing that a strong Yen is the complete opposite to what the BoJ desires.

The correlation between such consistent buying demand for the Yen and equity markets is very unusual and in fact, the relationship should be moving in the opposite direction.

Such consistent buying demand for the Yen just shows that investors are still attracted towards the currency as a safe-haven in light of the uncertain external environment that is weighing on global growth prospects.

This is also going to be a problem for the BoJ if the central bank does press the panic button on aggressive stimulus in an attempt to weaken the Yen, because traders could reject the stimulus and continue backing the currency as a safety asset.
 

Jameel Ahmad is VP of Market Research at FXTM


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E-Financial

Nigeria, Others Lose $88bn Yearly to Illicit Flows —Edun

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Wale Edun, minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, has raised concern over Africa’s mounting revenue losses, warning that the continent forfeits an estimated $88 billion annually to illicit financial flows (IFFs), a development he described as a critical threat to sustainable growth.

Nigeria, Others Lose $88bn Yearly to Illicit Flows —Edun

Speaking at the 5th Session of the Sub-Committee on Tax and Illicit Financial Flows of the African Union, in Abuja, Mr Edun said the persistent outflows continue to deprive African countries of vital resources required for infrastructure, healthcare, and overall economic development.

The high-level meeting, held at Transcorp Hilton Abuja, brought together policymakers, tax administrators, and development partners to examine strategies for strengthening fiscal systems amid evolving global economic uncertainties.

Mr Edun stressed the need for African countries to reduce reliance on external financing sources such as debt, aid, and foreign investment, noting that these options are becoming increasingly unpredictable. He maintained that domestic resource mobilisation must serve as the foundation for long-term economic sustainability.

“Our ambition is to finance up to 90 per cent of Africa’s development needs from domestic resources,” he said, referencing the continent’s Agenda 2063 development framework.

He identified structural challenges, including tax evasion, weak institutional capacity, and limited economic diversification, as key impediments, while emphasising that curbing illicit financial flows remains central to unlocking Africa’s fiscal potential.

Highlighting ongoing reforms under President Bola Tinubu, Mr Edun noted that measures such as tax system reforms, fuel subsidy removal, and exchange rate unification are beginning to improve revenue performance and boost investor confidence.

He added that initiatives like the National Single Window are helping to reduce trade-related leakages, while enhanced international tax cooperation is supporting efforts to recover lost revenues. He also cited Executive Order 9 as a key policy aimed at strengthening transparency in the oil and gas sector.

Calling for broader continental action, Mr Edun urged African nations to expand their tax base, strengthen public financial management systems, and deepen financial inclusion. He listed institutional strengthening, digital infrastructure investment, and cross-border collaboration as critical reform priorities.

“The question is no longer whether we must reform, but how urgently and how boldly we act,” he said, warning that failure to act could leave African economies exposed to external shocks.

On his part, Mr Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), called for urgent steps to safeguard domestic resources and address widening financing gaps across the continent.

Mr Adedeji noted that illicit financial flows ranging from tax evasion and trade mispricing to aggressive tax avoidance continue to weaken Africa’s capacity to fund critical sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, and education.

“Every year, billions meant for development are lost through illegal financial transfers. These are lost hospitals, lost schools, and lost opportunities,” he said.

He stressed that the cross-border nature of illicit flows requires coordinated responses at both national and continental levels, adding that Nigeria is pursuing reforms to modernise revenue administration through expanded tax coverage, improved compliance, and digital innovation.

According to him, efficient and transparent tax systems are essential not only for revenue generation but also for strengthening public trust in government institutions.

 


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CBN Says 33 Banks Raise Fresh N4.65 Trillion in Recapitalisation Exercise

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced the successful conclusion of the banking sector recapitalisation programme initiated in March 2024.

CBN Says 33 Banks Raise Fresh N4.65 Trillion in Recapitalisation Exercise

Over the 24-month period, Nigerian banks raised a total of N4.65 trillion in new capital, strengthening the resilience of the financial system and enhancing its capacity to support the economy, according to a statement that was issued by CBN on Wednesday.

The programme recorded strong participation from both domestic and international investors, with 72.55 per cent of capital sourced locally and 27.45 per cent from international markets, reflecting sustained confidence in the Nigerian banking sector.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said: “The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”

The CBN confirmed that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme. A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.

All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.

The apex bank stated that the programme has strengthened capital adequacy ratios (CAR), with the sector maintaining levels above international Basel benchmarks.

Minimum CAR thresholds remain at 10 per cent for regional and national banks and 15 per cent for banks with international authorisation.

The recapitalisation, implemented alongside an orderly exit from regulatory forbearance, has improved asset quality, reinforcing balance sheet transparency and overall financial system stability.

To safeguard the gains, the CBN said it has strengthened its risk-based capital adequacy framework, requiring banks to conduct regular stress testing across defined scenarios and maintain appropriate capital buffers.

It stated that key regulatory measures, including prudential guidelines and the supervisory framework, are subject to periodic review to support ongoing strengthening of governance, risk management and sector resilience.

The recapitalisation programme was carried out without disruption to banking services, ensuring continuous access for individuals and businesses throughout the process.

The successful completion of the programme establishes a stronger and more resilient banking system, better positioned to support lending, mobilise savings, and withstand domestic and global shocks, the CBN said in the statement that was issued by Olubukola A. Akinwunmi, director, banking supervision, and Hakama Ali, acting director, corporate communications.

“The Central Bank of Nigeria remains committed to maintaining a stable, transparent, and resilient financial system that inspires confidence among depositors, investors, and the broader public, and to advancing the sustainability of the nation’s financial architecture,” the statement read in part.


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Rising Fraud Threatens Nigeria’s Digital Banking Gains — Experts

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Nigeria’s fast-growing digital banking ecosystem is facing increasing scrutiny over consumer safety, as rising fraud cases and weak redress mechanisms threaten to erode public trust in the sector.

Rising Fraud Threatens Nigeria’s Digital Banking Gains — Experts

Over the past decade, Nigeria has witnessed a remarkable shift from cash-based transactions to digital financial services, driven by mobile banking applications, instant transfers and Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) platforms.

Industry data show that Point-of-Sale (POS) transactions rose to a record N18 trillion in 2024, representing a 69 per cent increase year-on-year, while the number of deployed POS terminals more than doubled to 5.5 million nationwide.

Mobile banking has also emerged as the most widely used digital financial channel, with about four in five Nigerians reportedly accessing such services within a 90-day period.

Analysts say the growth reflects significant progress in financial inclusion and technology adoption, but warn that the expansion has exposed gaps in consumer protection.

According to a 2024 Nigeria Consumer Protection Survey by Innovations for Poverty Action, nearly one in four users of digital financial services reported experiencing unexpected charges, hidden fees or fraud attempts within the past year.

The report further indicated that only about half of affected users pursued formal complaints, a trend experts attribute to declining confidence in dispute resolution processes.

Data from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) also highlight growing risks, with fraud-related losses rising to N52.26 billion in 2024.

Although the number of reported fraud cases declined, stakeholders note that the scale of losses per incident has increased significantly, suggesting more sophisticated and high-impact attacks.

Experts identify social engineering as the most prevalent fraud method, relying on deception rather than complex technology to exploit unsuspecting customers.

They also warn that insider involvement remains a critical concern, with cases of internal compromise posing systemic risks to the integrity of financial institutions.

The development, according to analysts, underscores a widening gap between the rapid expansion of digital banking infrastructure and the pace of consumer protection frameworks.

“Convenience and security must evolve together. When one outpaces the other, it creates vulnerabilities that fraudsters can exploit,” a financial analyst said.

Regulators, however, have taken steps to address the challenges.

Nigeria’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2025 signalled improvements in the country’s financial safeguards.

In addition, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced risk-based cybersecurity frameworks for deposit money banks in 2024, setting stricter standards for managing digital risks.

Industry-wide enforcement has also intensified, with regulatory penalties reportedly exceeding N15 billion in 2024, reinforcing compliance with consumer protection rules.

Within the banking sector, institutions are increasingly investing in advanced security systems designed to monitor transactions in real time, detect anomalies and prevent fraud before it occurs.

Analysts note that such proactive measures, though largely invisible to customers, play a critical role in safeguarding digital transactions.

The experience of Union Bank of Nigeria illustrates this approach, with the bank reporting strong customer satisfaction across its digital platforms, including mobile banking, USSD services and enterprise solutions.

Observers attribute this performance to sustained investment in backend security infrastructure, proactive fraud monitoring systems and a corporate culture that prioritises customer protection.

Industry stakeholders agree that trust remains the cornerstone of banking, particularly in a digital environment where transactions are increasingly intangible.

They warn that without sustained improvements in security, transparency and accountability, the gains recorded in financial inclusion could be undermined.

As Nigeria continues to expand its digital financial ecosystem, experts say the next phase of growth must prioritise safety alongside convenience to ensure long-term sustainability.

“Digital banking has transformed access to financial services in Nigeria, but its future will depend on how well institutions protect the people who rely on it,” an industry stakeholder said.


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