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Nigeria: IMF’s Warning Weighs Heavily On Sentiment- FXTM

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The improving sentiment towards the Nigerian economy was dealt a heavy blow in March following reports of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) warning of a potential economic collapse if the nation failed to move ahead with reforms.

Although at the start of the year the economic outlook was elevated on repeated occasion with even the World Bank predicting an encouraging growth for 2017, the pending report from the IMF which may be seen as a warning could create some headwinds as the nation attempt to secure international loans worth $1.4 billion.

While global markets have acknowledged that the largest economy in Africa is in the process of a key fundamental transformation that may exceed all expectations, there still remains a threat of internal and external risks creating obstacles.

Some optimism still exits over the economic growth recovery plan for 2017-2020 which displayed an encouraging outlook for the nation. The four-year plan was built around achieving a healthy economic growth and sustainable development while the nation embarked on its quest to breaking away from oil reliance.

With there being a very strong focus on the nation enhancing both public and private sector efficiency while also boosting overall productivity, the growth forecast of 7% by 2020 could become a reality if the protocol is followed.

Nigeria must do all it can to achieve a stable macroeconomic environment such as invest heavily in agriculture and bolster infrastructure investments to generate sustainable economic growth in the longer term.

Focusing on Nigeria’s macro fundamentals, economic data this quarter has been mixed with inflation cooling down for the first time in 15 months in February.

While inflation has started to somewhat stabilize, the high unemployment remains a cause for concern which may become another stumbling block to stable economic growth.

The mixed economic data and lingering uncertainty still enshrouding Nigeria have encouraged the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a passive stance in its recent policy meeting. Although the sentiment towards the nation continues to display some early signs of improvement, long-term fears over decelerating economic growth still weigh heavily on sentiment.

While the Central Bank of Nigeria has intervened to somewhat quell the foreign exchange scarcity dilemma, the multiple exchanges is a damaging policy that even the IMF has urged the government to rectify.

Speaking of foreign exchange policies, the Naira currently trades around 390 on the parallel exchange after the Central Bank of Nigeria injected a mammoth $1.138 billion in the forex markets to meet bids for forwards. While the repeated injections of Dollars in the foreign exchange may buoy the Naira, questions should be raised over the sustainability of this method. With the multiple exchanges still a major cause for concern that needs to be seriously dealt with, expectations remain heightened over the CBN taking further steps to fully bridge the gap in a sustainable way, ultimately creating one equilibrium currency exchange. Although the Naira may be poised to appreciate further in the short term as the CBN continues to pump Dollars into the markets, the possibility of a currency devaluation in the future could expose the Naira to downside shocks.

Outside of Nigeria, the cautious attitude the Federal Reserve has adopted coupled with the renewed Trump jitters has exposed the Greenback to major downside risks. A vulnerable Dollar may pose some benefits to emerging markets with Nigeria on the list.

With the growing concerns over Trump’s economic policies punishing the Dollar, emerging market currencies may receive a boost as concerns ease of capital outflows.

With Trump already facing headwinds in the early stages of his presidency in enacting his policies, the threat of the protectionism becoming a reality may subside consequently reducing some pressures on emerging markets.

Looking at oil, prices were exposed to downside risks this quarter with WTI Crude tumbling towards $47 after optimism diminished over the effectiveness of OPEC’s supply cut agreement. The consistent buildup seen in U.S Crude stockpiles swiftly revived the oversupply fears while concerns over some OPEC members not fully respecting compliance cuts weighed heavily on sentiment. Oil prices could be instore for further punishment moving forward with the bullish effect of last year’s unexpected production cut wearing off amid the global glut anxieties. A drop in oil prices may enforce further downside pressures on Nigeria which currently remains reliant on oil exports for a chunk of its government’s revenue.

As we enter the second quarter of the trading year, investors will be paying very close attention to economic data and if the nation is able to secure the $1.4 billion worth of international loans. The blueprints to a recovery are already in place and now actions must be taken to propel the nation away from recessionary levels.

With the IMF warning Nigeria that its economy needs urgent reforms with the government changing its exchange policy, the CBN may be prompted to intervene in an effort to create some stability while improving the chances of securing the critical loan needed.

On the foreign exchange side, although the combination of repeated interventions from the CBN and Dollar weakness may elevate the Naira, the long-term trajectory still tilts to the downside, especially when factoring a potential devaluation.

 


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E-Financial

First Asset Management Secures Ratings Upgrade

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First Asset Management investment management rating just got an upgrade to ‘AA’ from ‘AA-’ by DataPro and affirmation of A+(IM) by Agusto & Co. This reflects how we are continuously improving to serve our investors better. Our funds levelled up too as Agusto & Co upgraded our First Asset Money Market Fund rating to A+ (f) (up from Aa‑(f)).

What its means for customers

It means you are investing with a firm that is getting stronger, smarter, and more disciplined. Our upgraded rating recognizes our solid performance track record, the strength of our parent financial group, and the systems we have put in place to manage investments responsibly.

We have also improved our governance and decision-making structure, with experienced professionals leading well-defined investment and risk committees. Behind the scenes, our team of seasoned investment experts constantly monitor markets, manage risks, and position portfolios to navigate volatility and capture opportunities.

At the same time, we have strengthened our risk management and compliance framework to ensure that everything we do meets global best practices. In simple terms, it means your money is being managed with discipline, transparency, and strong oversight.

Independent rating agencies — Agusto & Co and DataPro Limited recognize these improvements. Their ratings highlight our commitment to responsible asset management, strong governance, and operational systems designed to support stable long-term performance.

But beyond the ratings, what really matters is helping you build wealth over time.

That is why we offer a range of investment plans designed for different goals — whether you are just starting your investment journey, looking to grow your portfolio, or aiming to build long-term financial security.

If you are part of the next generation of investors, this is your moment to start early and stay ahead. The earlier you begin investing, the more time your money has to grow.

Jump on the First Asset investment journey. Explore our investment plans and start building your future with a firm that is getting stronger.


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Nigeria Week Ahead: Equities sink, Oil surpasses $100, CPI in focus

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By Matthew Anthony, Senior Market Analyst- Africa

Oil prices spiked to just above $120 over the weekend as escalations of the Israel -US-Iran war intensified, with key energy installations targeted.

Nigeria Week Ahead: Equities sink, Oil surpasses $100, CPI in focus

FXTM

As a result, major oil suppliers are due to meet shortly to open the tap of their strategic reserves. Another contributor to the hike in oil prices has been the effectual closure of the strait of Hormuz (where 20% of the world’s oil supply goes through).

Major oil producing nations like Nigeria may profit from this conflict provided they are able to put a lid on inflation- a major consequence from rising oil prices-and use the windfall for critical budget needs while preparing for potential market shocks.

Outside of Nigeria, a wave of risk aversion engulfed global markets on Monday as ongoing conflict in the Middle East accelerated the flight to safety.

Asian shares plunged, European markets opened deep in the red while US equity futures signaled to a negative open as investors scrambled to price the chaos from the Iran conflict.

In the commodity space, oil prices jumped over 25% as major Middle East producers curbed output. Brent has gained roughly 30% this month, pushing 2026 gains to over 70% while WTI crude is up almost 80% year-to-date as of writing.

The last time oil benchmarks crossed into triple digits was back in 2022 during the Russian-Ukraine war. And for most it’s still a painful memory as geopolitical risk and covid-19 supply disruptions caused inflation to skyrocket across the globe.

In the FX space, the dollar remains supported by safe-haven demand along with the Swiss franc. However, the star performer is the Canadian Dollar which has appreciated against every single G10 currency month-to-date thanks to its sensitivity to oil markets.

Gold ended last week in losses despite the risk-off sentiment and overwhelming disappointing NFP report. Non-farm payrolls slid by 92,000, representing the biggest monthly decline in payrolls since October 2025, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.

However, gold remains locked within a daily range thanks to a broadly stronger dollar and inflationary risks revolving around the conflict in the Middle East. Surging energy prices have sparked inflationary fears, forcing markets to reassess the possibility of lower interest rates.

Traders are pricing a 50% chance that the Fed cuts rates twice in 2026. The February CPI and January PCE index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – may offer crucial insight into the path of price pressures.

Should the incoming inflation data further shave Fed cut bets, the dollar could strengthen – enforcing fresh pain on precious metals. Looking at the charts, a weekly close below $5000 may signal a steeper decline. Bulls could still fight back if $5000 proves reliable support.


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Polaris Bank Marks IWD2026 with Renewed Pledge to Women’s Empowerment

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Polaris Bank has joined the global community in celebrating International Women’s Day 2026, reaffirming its commitment to promoting gender equality, empowering women, and supporting initiatives that foster inclusive growth across society.

Polaris Bank Marks IWD2026 with Renewed Pledge to Women’s Empowerment

Polaris Bank

International Women’s Day, celebrated annually on March 8, provides an opportunity to recognize the achievements of women across all sectors while highlighting the need to accelerate action towards gender equality. At Polaris Bank, the day serves as a reminder of the vital role women play in driving economic growth, innovation, and community development.

Speaking in commemoration of the day, the Managing Director/CEO of Polaris Bank, Kayode Lawal, emphasized the Bank’s commitment to creating an enabling environment where women can thrive professionally and financially.

“Polaris Bank remains dedicated to fostering a culture of inclusion, opportunity, and empowerment for women. From supporting female entrepreneurs to ensuring equal opportunities within our workforce, we believe empowering women is not only the right thing to do but also a key driver of sustainable development,” the CEO stated.

Over the years, Polaris Bank has implemented several initiatives aimed at supporting women-led businesses, promoting financial inclusion, and strengthening leadership opportunities for women within the organization. These efforts align with the Bank’s broader commitment to sustainable development and inclusive economic growth.

As part of this year’s celebration, the Bank will spotlight inspiring stories of hope from women across the community, within its workforce and customer base, while encouraging meaningful conversations around leadership, financial empowerment, and gender equity.

Polaris Bank continues to champion initiatives that create opportunities for women to succeed, recognizing that empowering women ultimately leads to stronger families, thriving communities, and a more resilient economy.


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