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Nigeria Week Ahead: Equities sink, Oil surpasses $100, CPI in focus

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By Matthew Anthony, Senior Market Analyst- Africa

Oil prices spiked to just above $120 over the weekend as escalations of the Israel -US-Iran war intensified, with key energy installations targeted.

Nigeria Week Ahead: Equities sink, Oil surpasses $100, CPI in focus

FXTM

As a result, major oil suppliers are due to meet shortly to open the tap of their strategic reserves. Another contributor to the hike in oil prices has been the effectual closure of the strait of Hormuz (where 20% of the world’s oil supply goes through).

Major oil producing nations like Nigeria may profit from this conflict provided they are able to put a lid on inflation- a major consequence from rising oil prices-and use the windfall for critical budget needs while preparing for potential market shocks.

Outside of Nigeria, a wave of risk aversion engulfed global markets on Monday as ongoing conflict in the Middle East accelerated the flight to safety.

Asian shares plunged, European markets opened deep in the red while US equity futures signaled to a negative open as investors scrambled to price the chaos from the Iran conflict.

In the commodity space, oil prices jumped over 25% as major Middle East producers curbed output. Brent has gained roughly 30% this month, pushing 2026 gains to over 70% while WTI crude is up almost 80% year-to-date as of writing.

The last time oil benchmarks crossed into triple digits was back in 2022 during the Russian-Ukraine war. And for most it’s still a painful memory as geopolitical risk and covid-19 supply disruptions caused inflation to skyrocket across the globe.

In the FX space, the dollar remains supported by safe-haven demand along with the Swiss franc. However, the star performer is the Canadian Dollar which has appreciated against every single G10 currency month-to-date thanks to its sensitivity to oil markets.

Gold ended last week in losses despite the risk-off sentiment and overwhelming disappointing NFP report. Non-farm payrolls slid by 92,000, representing the biggest monthly decline in payrolls since October 2025, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.

However, gold remains locked within a daily range thanks to a broadly stronger dollar and inflationary risks revolving around the conflict in the Middle East. Surging energy prices have sparked inflationary fears, forcing markets to reassess the possibility of lower interest rates.

Traders are pricing a 50% chance that the Fed cuts rates twice in 2026. The February CPI and January PCE index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – may offer crucial insight into the path of price pressures.

Should the incoming inflation data further shave Fed cut bets, the dollar could strengthen – enforcing fresh pain on precious metals. Looking at the charts, a weekly close below $5000 may signal a steeper decline. Bulls could still fight back if $5000 proves reliable support.


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E-Financial

PalmPay Hits 35m Users’ Milestone

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PalmPay said that it has surpassed 35 million users, a figure that reflects a broader transition in the sector from rapid customer acquisition to sustained, everyday financial usage.

PalmPay Hits 35m Users’ Milestone

Chika Nwosu, Managing Director-CEO, PalmPay Nigeria

The consumer payments platform entered Nigeria’s fintech market in 2019 and is today a major player, offering a suite of financial services including transfers, bill payments, and digital insurance to promote financial inclusion.

In a market historically shaped by traditional banks, emerging fintechs, and a strong cash culture, scale alone is no longer the defining benchmark of success.

Instead, attention is shifting to how effectively platforms integrate into the daily financial routines of individuals and businesses.

Central to PalmPay’s growth is its alignment with Nigeria’s payment infrastructure.

The platform has executed live transactions on the National Payment Stack operated by the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), placing it within an interoperable framework that connects banks, fintechs, and other financial service providers.

Within this ecosystem, industry observers note that competition is increasingly determined by system performance—uptime, transaction success rates, and reliability—rather than product differentiation alone.

However, integration at the infrastructure level does not automatically translate to inclusion. According to data from Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA), a significant proportion of Nigerians—particularly in rural and underserved communities—remain outside the formal financial system.

To address this gap, PalmPay has expanded its agent network, mirroring a wider industry approach that combines digital platforms with physical access points.

Through these agents, users can carry out deposits, withdrawals, transfers, and onboarding, effectively bridging the divide between cash-based transactions and digital finance.

This hybrid model has become a cornerstone of financial service delivery in Nigeria, underscoring the importance of distribution alongside technology.

Beyond core payment services, PalmPay has also extended into financial literacy and capacity-building initiatives, targeting underserved groups such as women-led businesses and first-time digital users. The move signals a growing recognition that access alone is insufficient without the knowledge and confidence to participate fully in the financial system.

Overall, PalmPay’s reported scale offers insight into a maturing fintech landscape, where growth is increasingly defined not just by user numbers, but by the extent to which platforms become embedded in the everyday financial lives of Nigerians.


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E-Financial

Police Arraign First Bank Manager over Alleged Forex Fraud

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Police prosecutors from the Lagos State Criminal Investigation Department (SCID) have arraigned  Nnedimma Arah, a senior manager at First Bank Limited, before the Federal High Court, Lagos, over allegations of forgery.

Police Arraign First Bank Manager over Alleged Forex Fraud

Before Nnedimma’s arraignment, the detectives had filed a three-count charge against her and one Temitope Ogheneteme, based on advice from the office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP).

But during the proceedings, Emmanuel Eze, Police prosecutor, urged the court to remove Temitope Ogheneteme’s name from the charge, citing the DPP’s legal advice.

Justice Daniel Osiagor, trial judge,  granted this request, and Ogheneteme was discharged.

This amendment left Arah, who is the branch manager of Dosumu, Lagos Island, and an Associate Chartered Accountant (ACA), as the sole defendant in Charge No. FHC/L/582C/2025.

Arah was accused of forging a letter of undertaking, supposedly issued by Freshborn Industries Limited on August 12, 2022, to cover foreign exchange differences.

Eze claimed that the alleged forgery occurred from January 2023 to January 2024 at the Dosunmu Branch.

He claimed that the document was forged with the intent to deceive, harming Freshborn Industries Nigeria Limited and its representatives, Anene Ikenna and Anene Chinyere Angela.

The prosecutor further maintained that the offence is punishable under Section 1(2)(c) of the Miscellaneous Offences Act.

The defendant pleaded not guilty to the charge.

Her defence requested bail, noting she had previously been on administrative bail and had attended court proceedings diligently.

Justice Osiagor granted her bail in the sum of N5 million with one surety in like sum.

The case’s progress was delayed earlier because the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) was reviewing the case file after a petition from First Bank.

In a letter dated January 26, 2026, the DPP asked the police to review the case under the Administration of Criminal Justice Act.

The bank’s petition to the Attorney-General stated that the dispute involved a $400,000 credit facility to Freshborn Industries Limited, which is also pending in a civil suit before the Lagos State High Court.

The bank argued that the criminal charges stem from a commercial dispute and warned that this could constitute an abuse of the legal process.

The judge has fixed the trial for July 14 and 15, 2026.


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Ezekiel Sanni, SVP Moniepoint Extols the MFB’s Track Record as Unique Service Model Redefining Nigeria’s Agency Banking

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Moniepoint Microfinance Bank (Moniepoint MFB) has reaffirmed its leadership in Nigeria’s agency banking space, positioning its track record and distinctive service model as a game-changer for the sector, while committing to deepen value creation across the entire ecosystem.

Beyond service provision, the Bank is cementing its identity as the homegrown, technological backbone of the real economy, built by Nigerians to solve the specific complexities of the local commercial landscape.

Speaking on the Bank’s evolving strategy, Ezekiel Sanni, Senior Vice President (SVP), Distribution Network Sales, Moniepoint MFB, said the Bank’s approach is built on a clear understanding that agency banking must be anchored on consistent enterprise support, trust building, and real economic value for agents, merchants and their customers.

“Agency banking has grown significantly in reach, but the next phase of growth will be defined by quality of service and depth of engagement,” Ezekiel Sanni, SVP, Distribution Network Sales, said. “At Moniepoint MFB , we have built a model that prioritises not just access, but meaningful, routine local support for the merchants and communities we serve while our engineering is a commitment to the stability that these businesses need to thrive.”

At the core of this approach is the deployment of dedicated field-based managers who work closely with agents, providing hands-on, on-the-ground support tailored to their daily operations. Unlike conventional systems, where engagement often ends after onboarding, Moniepoint MFB maintains continuous interaction with agents, driving product usage, resolving operational challenges, and strengthening long-term partnerships.

By combining digital infrastructure with a strong physical presence, the Bank has created a hybrid service model that delivers both scale and human connection. This proximity enables faster issue resolution and supports always-on mentorship, where merchants receive ongoing business guidance, real-time operational support, and on-the-job training, particularly in critical areas such as fraud detection and anti-money laundering (AML) regulatory compliance.

“When you are close to the agent, you are in a position to go beyond providing a service to building capability,” Mr. Sanni added. “Our teams work alongside agents to strengthen their operations, improve compliance awareness, and ultimately protect both their businesses and the broader financial system.”

According to the Bank, the impact of this approach extends beyond agents and merchants to last-mile customers, who benefit from more reliable service, safer transactions, and greater confidence in the financial system they interact with daily.

Moniepoint MFB’s model has been further strengthened by its track record over the past few years as the bona fide operating system for small businesses. The Bank has integrated value-added services, such as inventory management, savings product, and access to working capital loans, into its platform, embedding itself in merchants’ day-to-day operations and significantly increasing the value delivered.

“Our aspiration has been to become indispensable to the businesses we serve,” Ezekiel noted. “When your banking partner is also supporting your inventory, helping you navigate other obligations, and providing access to capital, the relationship becomes stronger and more impactful.”

The Bank’s strong performance metrics reinforce this positioning as Nigeria’s largest merchant acquirer, powering 8 out of every 10 in-person payments made across the country, driven by reliability, fast transaction processing, rapid settlement cycles, and a range of other benefits.  This consistency has also helped build a reputation for reliability, which the Bank describes as a key competitive moat in a market where agents often consolidate around a single provider.

“In many cases, agents are effectively choosing a long-term partner they trust to be stable, responsive, and dependable. That is the trust we have deliberately built, that continues to differentiate us even as we work hard to contribute meaningfully to the broader growth and development of the financial ecosystem,” Mr. Sanni added.

The Bank reiterated that it sees agency banking not just as a channel but as critical infrastructure for economic participation and an enduring financial inclusion. Moniepoint’s commitment is to keep strengthening that infrastructure, supporting merchants, empowering customers, and continuing to serve as the reliable, indigenous engine that keeps Nigeria’s real economy moving.

 


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