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Deepening Conflict, Oil Price Volatility, Inflation Scare

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By Matthew Anthony, Senior Market Analyst- Africa

Tensions in the Middle East are sending shockwaves through global markets, stoking fresh inflation concerns as oil prices climb.

Deepening conflict, Oil price volatility, Inflation Scare

As these tensions escalate, mounting fears of inflationary shocks could force central banks to rethink their 2026 playbooks.

Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s inflation eased to 15.06% in February, just before the Iran conflict erupted. Since then, gasoline prices have soared by more than 30% for Africa’s leading crude exporter, pushing transportation costs higher for everyday Nigerians.

Nigeria’s oil production has helped shield it from the war’s fallout. The currency has only dipped 0.3% against the dollar in the past two weeks.

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However, these shifts may challenge the CBN’s plans to keep lowering interest rates. The Naira now trades at NGN1,385 per US dollar, up from NGN1,360 before tensions flared in the Middle East.

Outside of Nigeria, risk aversion returned to global markets on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East sapped risk appetite.

The brief tech rally in the previous session merely served as a small distraction with equities on the back foot amid the overall caution.

All eyes remain on the ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as Trump calls for other nations to secure the critical waterway.

Ultimately, this has injected oil prices with monstrous levels of volatility with Brent rallying above $103 a barrel on Tuesday.  Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East have intensified fears around supply shocks, injecting oil bulls with renewed vigour.

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To counter such shocks, the IEA launched its largest ever oil release amounting to 400million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks. In addition, the US issued its second temporary waiver for the purchase of Russian oil. Despite all of this, Brent is finding comfort at triple digits and could extend gains on geopolitical risk.

Gold remains on the backfoot despite the growing risk aversion.

A broadly stronger dollar and dwindling bets around lower US interest rates have dealt gold a double blow. Traders are only pricing in just one Fed cut in 2026 thanks to concerns around conflict-induced inflation.

Gold’s near-term outlook may be influenced by the Fed decision on Wednesday. No changes are expected but the Fed may be forced to reassess its policy strategy for 2026. Looking at the charts, gold is wobbling above $5000 as of writing. Weakness below this point may open a path toward $4900 while a rebound could see prices retest resistance at $5100.

Speaking of central banks, the RBA raised interest rates on Tuesday for a second consecutive meeting.

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Growing concerns around conflict-induced inflation shocks may prompt central banks to reassess their policy strategies for 2026.

The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), among many others will be under the spotlight this week.

Market expectations have rapidly evaporated over the Fed cutting rates anytime while the BoE/ECB are seen potentially hiking rates by the end of the year if inflation persists. These sharp shifts in policy expectations may translate to heightened levels of volatility.


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E-Financial

Cyberthreat: New Malware, Turns Phones into Tools for Card Fraud- Report

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Cybercriminals have developed a new Android malware that can turn victims smartphones into a bridge for stealing bank card information and carrying out contactless payment fraud, cybersecurity researchers have warned.

Cyberthreat: New Malware, Turns Phones into Tools for Card Fraud- Report

The malware, identified as WindRelay, operates in conjunction with a known remote-access trojan, SpyNote, to capture live information exchanged between a physical bank card and an Android phone via Near Field Communication (NFC).

NFC is the short-range technology that enables contactless payments when a bank card or smartphone is tapped against a payment terminal.

According to cybersecurity firm Group-IB, WindRelay was detected in the wild in August 2025 and has been used in a social-engineering scheme targeting victims in Czechia, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Meanwhile, the fraud begins with a phone call, text message or other communication in which criminals pretend to be bank officials.

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The victim is persuaded to install an application, often personalised with the victim’s name, and once installed, SpyNote gives the criminal remote access to the phone and can silently install WindRelay, with the victim then tricked into placing a physical bank card against the infected smartphone, supposedly for identity verification, PIN change, or account resolution.

WindRelay reads the card’s NFC signals and sends the information in real time to another device controlled by the criminal, with such a device then imitating the victim’s card at a payment terminal or ATM, as the victim’s smartphone becomes a wireless bridge between the victim’s bank card and the criminal’s device.

Group-IB said it identified 23 WindRelay samples uploaded to VirusTotal between November 2025 and July 2026, with the malware samples impersonating financial institutions in Czechia, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Meanwhile, the development adds to existing concerns over the use of mobile devices in cybercrime and financial fraud in Nigeria.

In June, the Nigeria Computer Emergency Response Team (ngCERT) issued an advisory on IPIDEA malware and malicious residential proxy networks, warning that the malware could hijack consumers internet connections and use compromised devices as part of criminal proxy networks.

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While the ngCERT advisory concerns a different malware and attack method, both incidents highlight a growing risk: ordinary smartphones and connected devices can be secretly turned into tools for cybercriminals.

This is particularly relevant as Nigerians increasingly rely on smartphones for mobile banking, digital payments and other financial services.

Consequently, cybersecurity experts have advised users not to install applications sent through unsolicited calls, text messages or links, especially when the sender claims to represent a bank, as users should also be suspicious of requests to place payment cards against smartphones for supposed account verification.

 

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E-Financial

SEC Clears Blockchain for Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Programme

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has cleared additional Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) for admission into its Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Programme (ARIP).

Among the newly cleared is BC Access Nigeria Limited (Blockchain), marking an important step in the company’s long-term commitment to Nigeria and its broader expansion across Africa.

Nigeria is one of Africa’s most important digital asset markets, where crypto increasingly plays a practical role in how people access, hold and move.

Value Admission into ARIP means Blockchain has satisfied the SEC’s initial requirements to participate in the programme and is authorised to operate within its defined sandbox scope, subject to the Commission’s ongoing compliance obligations, testing parameters, and regulatory conditions.

Through ARIP, Blockchain can work directly with the SEC as the Commission evaluates digital asset business models, tests. appropriate safeguards and develops its long-term regulatory framework for the market.

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Speaking, General Manager for Africa, Blockchain, Owen Odia, said: “Nigeria is one of Africa’s most important digital asset markets and participating in the SEC’s ARIP is an important step forward in our long-term commitment to the country.

“The programme gives us the opportunity to work directly with the SEC in a controlled environment, bring our global experience to the Nigerian market and help support a framework that protects consumers while enabling responsible innovation. We appreciate the SEC’s proactive approach and look forward to contributing to a safe, transparent and well-regulated digital asset ecosystem.”

Blockchain’s participation in ARIP forms part of a broader global strategy to engage constructively with regulators and build within established regulatory frameworks.

Over the past year, Blockchain has secured several formal licenses and registrations globally, including the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), EU Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), and Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA) Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) License. Participating in Nigeria’s ARIP sandbox builds on that experience, bringing global standards in compliance, security and consumer protection to its local operations.

For Blockchain, ARIP provides a structured environment to test services for the Nigerian market, strengthen consumer protections and work directly with regulators and local stakeholders.

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The company sees Nigeria as an important market in its African strategy, with strong existing demand for digital assets and an increasingly clear regulatory pathway for responsible operators. The company’s strategy materials specifically identify Nigeria as an important market for its African expansion.

ARIP was established by Nigeria’s SEC as a controlled regulatory sandbox for VASPs and fintech innovators. The programme allows the SEC to observe live applications of digital asset technologies, study operational risks, and establish tailored investor protection and anti-money laundering (AML) standards before final regulatory rules are codified.

Blockchain is pleased to participate in ARIP as we work alongside regulators to support responsible innovation, consumer protection and market integrity.

Founded in 2011, Blockchain is one of the world’s longest-standing digital asset companies with more than 95 million wallets, more than 44 million confirmed accounts and over $1.2 trillion processed.

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E-Financial

Leadway Unveils Multi-generational Insurance Plan for Nigerian Families

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Leadway Assurance has unveiled the Leadway Lifetime Plan, a one-of-a-kind whole-of-life insurance solution designed to extend financial protection beyond the immediate household to the wider family circle.

The newly introduced plan unveiled at a press briefing in Lagos reinforces Leadway’s commitment to building lasting financial security, preserving wealth, and delivering meaningful, long-term protection for the people who matter most.

The Leadway Lifetime Plan responds to the increasingly complex financial responsibilities faced by many working adults, particularly members of the Sandwich Generation individuals who simultaneously provide financial support for ageing parents while raising children and planning for their future.

With family responsibilities now extending beyond the traditional nuclear household, the Leadway Lifetime Plan is designed to offer broader, long-term protection that reflects the realities of modern Nigerian families.

Speaking on the new insurance plan, Olufunmilayo Amanwa, executive director, Technical & Operations, Leadway Assurance, said the product reflects the insurer’s recognition that family structures and financial responsibilities are evolving, and that insurance solutions must evolve with them.

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“Financial responsibility no longer stops at the nuclear family. Today, one individual may be supporting children, a spouse, ageing parents, and in some cases, parents-in-law or siblings, all at once. That reality demands a different approach to protection.

The Leadway Lifetime Plan was built around this reality. It gives customers a way to extend continuous protection to the extended family, ensuring the people who depend on them are covered, while also delivering meaningful benefits to policyholders within their own lifetime. This is the Leadway way, designing solutions that respond to how people actually live, not recycling old products with new names”

Beyond traditional life protection, the Leadway Lifetime Plan incorporates a range of living benefits designed to provide financial support during critical stages of life.

Following five years of complete premium payment and subject to the policy terms, the policyholder and spouse may access up to 50 per cent of their current sum assured upon diagnosis of a covered critical illness. This benefit can provide valuable financial support at a time when a serious health event may place pressure on income, savings and overall household stability.

The plan also provides greater long-term financial flexibility. Eligible policyholders may access up to 50 per cent of the policy value for significant life goals after the premium payment term plus five years, subject to applicable policy conditions.

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While Leadway’s existing Family Benefit Plan provides family-focused whole-life protection, the Lifetime Plan has been developed as a more expansive, multi-generational solution that combines lifelong protection with financial value that can be accessed during the policyholder’s lifetime.

Explaining the thinking behind the product, Rosetta Aryeetey, head, Life Underwriting and Life Business, Leadway Assurance said the solution was developed around the changing needs of customers. “The starting point for the Leadway Lifetime Plan was the customer.

We looked closely at how families are structured Today, how financial responsibilities are shared and the challenges customers face when they are responsible for several generations at the same time. What emerged was a need for a solution that does more than pay a benefit after death. Customers need protection for the people who depend on them, but they also need support when critical life events occur and flexibility as their financial priorities evolve.”

She added that the combination of multi-life protection, living benefits, long-term value and flexibility makes the Lifetime Plan relevant across different stages of a customer’s financial journey.

The plan also offers flexibility to enhance financial protection over time through an Escalation of Sum Assured feature. This allows customers to increase their benefits by a fixed percentage, giving them the flexibility to align their level of protection with their evolving financial needs and circumstances.

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With the launch, Leadway Assurance is reinforcing its commitment to developing insurance solutions that respond to real-life needs while helping families build resilience, preserve financial stability and create lasting legacies.

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