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Deepening Conflict, Oil Price Volatility, Inflation Scare

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By Matthew Anthony, Senior Market Analyst- Africa

Tensions in the Middle East are sending shockwaves through global markets, stoking fresh inflation concerns as oil prices climb.

Deepening conflict, Oil price volatility, Inflation Scare

As these tensions escalate, mounting fears of inflationary shocks could force central banks to rethink their 2026 playbooks.

Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s inflation eased to 15.06% in February, just before the Iran conflict erupted. Since then, gasoline prices have soared by more than 30% for Africa’s leading crude exporter, pushing transportation costs higher for everyday Nigerians.

Nigeria’s oil production has helped shield it from the war’s fallout. The currency has only dipped 0.3% against the dollar in the past two weeks.

However, these shifts may challenge the CBN’s plans to keep lowering interest rates. The Naira now trades at NGN1,385 per US dollar, up from NGN1,360 before tensions flared in the Middle East.

Outside of Nigeria, risk aversion returned to global markets on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East sapped risk appetite.

The brief tech rally in the previous session merely served as a small distraction with equities on the back foot amid the overall caution.

All eyes remain on the ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as Trump calls for other nations to secure the critical waterway.

Ultimately, this has injected oil prices with monstrous levels of volatility with Brent rallying above $103 a barrel on Tuesday.  Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East have intensified fears around supply shocks, injecting oil bulls with renewed vigour.

To counter such shocks, the IEA launched its largest ever oil release amounting to 400million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks. In addition, the US issued its second temporary waiver for the purchase of Russian oil. Despite all of this, Brent is finding comfort at triple digits and could extend gains on geopolitical risk.

Gold remains on the backfoot despite the growing risk aversion.

A broadly stronger dollar and dwindling bets around lower US interest rates have dealt gold a double blow. Traders are only pricing in just one Fed cut in 2026 thanks to concerns around conflict-induced inflation.

Gold’s near-term outlook may be influenced by the Fed decision on Wednesday. No changes are expected but the Fed may be forced to reassess its policy strategy for 2026. Looking at the charts, gold is wobbling above $5000 as of writing. Weakness below this point may open a path toward $4900 while a rebound could see prices retest resistance at $5100.

Speaking of central banks, the RBA raised interest rates on Tuesday for a second consecutive meeting.

Growing concerns around conflict-induced inflation shocks may prompt central banks to reassess their policy strategies for 2026.

The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), among many others will be under the spotlight this week.

Market expectations have rapidly evaporated over the Fed cutting rates anytime while the BoE/ECB are seen potentially hiking rates by the end of the year if inflation persists. These sharp shifts in policy expectations may translate to heightened levels of volatility.


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E-Financial

IMF Fears AI-Powered Cyberattack Could Spark Global Financial Crisis

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly increasing the danger of cyberattacks on the global financial system.

IMF Fears AI-Powered Cyberattack Could Spark Global Financial Crisis

Pic credit… saturnpartners

According to a blog post from the IMF, these AI-driven threats could turn isolated security breaches into severe economic disruptions, potentially freezing payments, shaking markets, and undermining public trust in banks worldwide.

In its analysis, the fund highlighted a specific example involving the controlled release of an advanced AI model called Claude Mythos Preview by Anthropic.

The IMF noted that this model demonstrated the ability to identify and exploit weaknesses in all major operating systems and web browsers, even when used by individuals without specialized expertise.

The IMF cautioned that AI could heighten risk concentration within the financial system.

A single exploited vulnerability might cascade across numerous institutions simultaneously due to heavy reliance on a limited number of cloud providers, software platforms, and AI models.

Such events could escalate from operational issues to macro-financial shocks, triggering confidence crises, liquidity problems, and fire-sale dynamics in markets. The organization also acknowledged that AI forms part of the solution.

As attackers operate at machine speed, financial institutions are deploying their own AI-assisted tools for threat detection, fraud prevention, and faster incident response.

The IMF highlighted a geopolitical dimension to the threat, noting that cyber risk crosses national borders and that inconsistent oversight among countries could weaken the globally interconnected financial system.

Emerging economies, often with limited resources, may face disproportionate exposure.

The fund urged policymakers to treat cybersecurity as a core financial stability concern rather than a technical or operational matter.

It called for prioritization of resilience standards, systemic supervision, and international coordination to contain breaches before they spread.


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MasterCard, BMONI Partner to Improve Digital Payments

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MasterCard and BMONI, an artificial intelligence-powered financial platform, are working to launch a new generation of virtual and physical payment cards that will enable Nigerian customers to conduct fluid local and worldwide transactions.

According to the partners earlier this week, the solution is powered by MasterCard’s global payment network, enabling users to instantly create multiple Naira and US dollar-denominated virtual and physical cards that are globally accepted and ready for use, with card management handled entirely within the BMONI app.

The collaboration is one of the first locally issued international card programmes in the West African country, made possible by MasterCard’s new card issuance models, which aim to promote digital payments uptake among fintech companies in the sector, the two companies said.

With Nigeria’s e-commerce market projected to exceed $26 billion by 2030, the demand for globally accepted, instantly issued digital payment solutions continues to grow.

BMONI’s card offering, built on MasterCard’s network, responds to this shift by enabling users to operate more seamlessly across currencies and everyday spending, noted Mastercard.

Dr Folasade Femi-Lawal, country manager for West Africa, MasterCard, said: “Nigeria’s digital economy is growing rapidly; consumers need payment solutions that keep pace.

“Our collaboration with BMONI brings together Mastercard’s global network with an innovative platform like BMONI to deliver real value to consumers: instant card access, multi-currency flexibility, and seamless transactions across borders.”

Ashwin Ravichandran, head of product, BMONI, added: “At BMONI, our focus has always been simple, which is to remove the friction between people and their money. This collaboration with Mastercard allows us to deliver global access and a level of control that simply has not existed before.”


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Fidelity Bank Provides Critical Funding Support to Abuja Special Needs Orphanage

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Fidelity Bank Plc, leading financial institution, through the Fidelity Helping Hands Programme (FHHP), has funded critical support for the JKS Special Needs Academy in Abuja to ensure continued shelter and care for vulnerable children.

Fidelity Bank Provides Critical Funding Support to Abuja Special Needs Orphanage

Fidelity Bank

The intervention was facilitated by a group of the bank’s newly recruited employees known as Team Valorem, as part of their induction activities. Through the FHHP, employees are empowered to actively contribute to social development by dedicating their time, resources and skills to impactful projects.

Projects executed under the initiative are employee-driven, with teams encouraged to identify causes, contribute fifty percent of the project funding, while the bank matches the contribution.

Speaking during the outreach, Divisional Head, Brand and Communications Division, Fidelity Bank Plc, Dr Meksley Nwagboh, highlighted that the initiative aligns with the Bank’s CSR pillars focused on health & social welfare, and youth empowerment.

“This intervention reflects our belief that building a better society is a shared responsibility. Through the Fidelity Helping Hands Programme, we empower our employees to actively contribute to meaningful social causes.

“The funding provided will secure the orphanage’s accommodation for an additional year, ensuring a stable and safe environment for the children. This support guarantees that these children continue to have a place they can call home,” Nwagboh remarked.

He also commended caregivers at the facility for their dedication and called for increased focus on empowerment and skill development for children with special needs.

“Beyond providing basic needs, we must provide these children with opportunities to develop skills and become self-reliant. Everyone, regardless of their physical or socio-economic status, has a role to play in the society,” he said.

In her response, Director of JKS Special Needs Academy, Mrs. Nifemi Ajileye, expressed deep appreciation to Fidelity Bank and its staff for the timely intervention.

“We are truly grateful to Fidelity Bank for this support. It will significantly improve the welfare of the children under our care and help us sustain our operations,” she said.

Ajileye highlighted the high cost of caring for children with disabilities, stating that, “Many of the children require continuous medical attention and therapy, which are quite expensive. Support like this helps us bridge critical gaps and continue delivering quality care.

This support from Fidelity Bank is timely and it means the world to us and to these children. It will help us continue our work and secure a better future for them,” she added, while calling for sustained support from other organisations.

As an institution with a heart for people, Fidelity Bank continues to demonstrate its commitment to social responsibility by driving inclusive growth and social impact through initiatives that empower communities and improve lives across Nigeria.

Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving over 10 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK.

The Bank is a recipient of multiple local and international Awards, including the 2024 Excellence in Digital Transformation & MSME Banking Award by BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; the 2024 Most Innovative Mobile Banking Application award for its Fidelity Mobile App by Global Business Outlook, and the 2024 Most Innovative Investment Banking Service Provider award by Global Brands Magazine. Additionally, the Bank was recognized as the Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence and as the Export Financing Bank of the Year by the BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards.


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