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Dollars Rally Stall Oil Bitcoin On The Move

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By Hussein Sayed

Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM, comments on pressure faced by the Dollar and potential outcomes to the Catalonian vote.

After enjoying a 4-week rally, the dollar came under pressure last week, falling against most of its major peers, leaving many traders questioning whether the most recent bull run is over for the greenback.

Although U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5% in September, the biggest increase in eight months, when stripping out food and energy, core CPI only recorded a 0.1% increase, suggesting that inflationary pressure remains absent from the largest economy in the world.

Moreover, while retails sales jumped 1.6% in September, the largest since March 2015, when you exclude automobiles, gasoline, food services and building materials, core retail sales only recorded a 0.4% increase.

The disappointment was felt in fixed income markets, with 10-year treasury yields falling 5 basis points on Friday. However, expectations for a third rate hike in December remained above 80%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Given that a December rate hike is almost entirely priced in, the dollar will be driven by longer-term expectations.

The three rate hikes plotted on the Fed’s dot plot for 2018, is nowhere near to markets’ expectations of only one, and the main risk facing the greenback is who will lead the Fed after Janet Yellen departs.

It will require robust economic data for dollar bulls to regain control, particularly in wages and inflation expectations. If these two metrics remain weak in the final quarter of the year, I think the dollar will continue to be dragged lower.

Will Carles Puigdemont announce independence?

Euro traders are awaiting the announcement from Charles Puigdemont, on whether he will declare independence from Spain.

The deadline given to him is today 8:00 am GMT. If Mr. Puigdemont claims independence, Spain would move towards dissolving Catalonia’s parliament and call new local elections.

We still don’t know how this political conflict will end, but it will no doubt create downside risk to the single currency.

However, I still believe that such threats are insignificant and the ECB’s policy will remain the dominant driver in the days to come. Tuesday’s CPI report will likely help to outline expectations for ECB’s monetary policy decision on 26 October.

Iraq conflict moving oil prices

The oil price is the only asset class showing big moves on a quiet Monday. Brent is up more than 1%, trading at its highest level since 28 September, after Iraqi forces began marching towards Kirkuk – an oil-rich Kurdish province.

Clashes have been reported between Kurdish fighters and Iraqi forces early today, threatening to disrupt output from Kurdish controlled fields. If the 600,000 barrels a day exports from Kirkuk’s oil fields are halted, I expect Brent to retest September’s high of $59.49. Oil traders are also monitoring the U.S. – Iranian situation very closely.

If the U.S. Congress goes ahead with rekindling economic sanctions on Tehran, after Trump decertifies the nuclear deal, Brent prices will likely breach the $60 benchmark.

“Stupid” investors made more than 400% profit year-to-date

Despite JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon calling people buying Bitcoin “stupid”, and stating that they will “pay the price for their stupidity”, the cryptocurrency surged to a new high of $5,846 on Friday and continued to hover close to this record level.

The attempts by government to crack down on cryptocurrencies, with China being the biggest nay-sayer, is not stopping the growth of wallets in the digital currency.

Since Bitcoin entered the mainstream, many investors, including hedge funds, want to be a part of this experiment and this has lead into more inflows into Bitcoin.

It’s difficult to know whether a bubble is being created, as there are no specific metrics that can be used as a benchmark to determine Bitcoin’s intrinsic value. Given that the cryptocurrency is likely to continue attracting new investors, we’re likely to see news highs in the weeks to come.


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E-Financial

CBN Tightens BVN Rules to Curb Fraudulent Banking Transactions

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has introduced stricter Bank Verification Number (BVN) enrolment and data access rules to prevent suspected fraudulent transactions, effective May 1, 2026.

CBN Tightens BVN Rules to Curb Fraudulent Banking Transactions

This was disclosed in a statement issued over the weekend and titled “Addendum to the Revised Regulatory Framework for Bank Verification Number (BVN) Operations and Watchlist for the Nigerian Banking Industry 2021.”

The statement was signed by Musa Jimoh, director of the Payment System Policy Department.

The CBN said it introduced the ‘Revised Regulatory Framework for Bank Verification (BVN) and Watchlist for the Nigerian Banking Industry 2021’, to promote a stable financial system.

The apex bank reiterated that enrollment for the BVN be limited to individuals aged 18 and above, while amendments to phone numbers linked to a BVN will be restricted to a one-time change only.

Financial Institutions are mandated to establish and maintain a temporary watchlist for BVNs implicated in suspected fraudulent transactions reported by a financial institution.

“A BVN may remain on this temporary Watchlist for a maximum period of twenty-four (24) hours. During this period, the BVN owner shall be contacted to clarify the identified transaction(s).

Enrolment for BVN is restricted to individuals who have attained the age of eighteen (18) years and above. Amendments to phone numbers linked to a BVN shall be allowed only once,” the statement read.

The CBN insisted that it maintain an exclusive right to access BVN databases and to approve access to them by financial institutions.

“Access to the BVN databases shall be exclusively granted to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) licensed financial institutions. Notwithstanding this provision, the Central Bank of Nigeria (the Bank) reserves the right to approve access to the BVN databases in extenuating circumstances and in accordance with the provisions of extant laws,” the statement said.

The directive was part of the CBN’s recent regulatory amendments in combating fraudulent activities.

On Tuesday, the bank issued new regulations, “Baseline Standards for Automated Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Solution for Financial Institutions in Nigeria’, to all financial institutions, in a bid to automatically counter money laundering and terrorism financing.

 


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E-Financial

Nova Bank Appoints Jude Anele as Managing Director/CEO

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NOVA Bank Limited has announced the appointment of Jude Anele as its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, following the approval of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Nova Bank Appoints Jude Anele as Managing Director/CEO

Jude Anele

The appointment comes at a pivotal moment in the Bank’s evolution, following its transition from merchant banking to commercial banking and the successful completion of its recapitalisation programme ahead of the March 31, 2026, regulatory deadline.

Anele brings more than 33 years of banking experience across West and Central Africa, with deep expertise in retail / commercial banking, corporate banking, risk management, institutional transformation and executive leadership.

Over the course of his career, he has led complex banking operations, strengthened governance frameworks, delivered sustainable revenue growth and built high-performance teams.

The appointment reflects the Board’s strategic commitment to consolidating NOVA Bank’s commercial banking platform while accelerating growth across its Corporate, Commercial and Retail segments, as well as priority markets.

Speaking on his appointment, Anele said he was honoured to assume leadership of the Bank at a defining stage of its growth.
“Nova Bank has built a strong institutional foundation defined by regulatory compliance, capital strength, disciplined governance and a clear commercial mandate.

“Our focus now is execution — deepening customer relationships, expanding responsibly across priority markets, strengthening risk discipline and delivering sustainable value to our shareholders,” he said.

The Bank’s Chairman, Phillips Oduoza, also expressed confidence in the new leadership.

“The Board is pleased to welcome Mr. Jude Anele as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer. His depth of experience, strategic clarity and proven leadership record align strongly with NOVA Bank’s growth ambitions,” Oduoza said.

He added that with recapitalization completed ahead of the regulatory timeline, the Bank is entering a new phase defined by scale, stability and structured expansion.

NOVA Bank also confirmed that it has met the recapitalization requirements set by the Central Bank of Nigeria ahead of the regulatory deadline, reinforcing its capital adequacy and long-term financial stability.

The capital raise, supported by new and existing shareholders, further strengthens the Bank’s balance sheet and positions it for disciplined growth.

In 2025, Global Credit Rating reaffirmed NOVA Commercial Bank’s national scale long- and short-term issuer ratings of BBB(NG) and A3(NG) respectively, while Agusto & Co. reaffirmed the Bank’s “Bbb” rating with a stable outlook, reflecting its strong capital base, sound liquidity position and resilient asset quality relative to its risk profile.

NOVA Bank currently maintains operations in Lagos, Abuja, Owerri and Port Harcourt, with plans to open eight additional branches across key commercial hubs in 2026 as part of its expansion strategy.

The commissioning of the Bank’s regional office in Owerri marked a significant milestone in its South-East and South-South growth strategy.

The event attracted government officials’ business leaders and Nigerians in diaspora and underscored NOVA Bank’s commitment to supporting enterprise development and economic growth.

NOVA Bank Limited is a commercial bank licensed and regulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Commencing operations in 2018 as a merchant bank, the institution transitioned to a commercial bank in 2024 and provides retail, SME, corporate and commercial banking services through its Phygital model—an integrated approach combining physical branch presence with digital banking infrastructure.


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CBN Rolls Out New Rules for Safer Instant Payments, More Customer Control

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has launched simple new rules to make mobile money transfers and online banking safer and give ordinary Nigerians more say over their cash.

CBN Rolls Out New Rules for Safer Instant Payments, More Customer Control

CBN

The changes aim to stop fraud in our fast-growing digital money world. A notice dated March 12, signed by Musa Jimoh, says the rules start on July 1 for all banks and payment apps in Nigeria.

Customers can now choose if they want instant payments turned on or off on their accounts—anytime they like. Banks must let people say yes or no with strong security checks called Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA), like passwords plus phone codes.

New customers start with it on, but can switch it off easily. If off, online transfers stop right away, but you can go to the bank branch to send money the old way.

People can also change their daily spending limits, up to ₦25 million for personal accounts or ₦250 million for businesses—but only after the bank checks risks. Changes happen fast after customer okay via MFA.

CBN wants banks to use big computer systems to watch for funny money moves, like sudden big inflows or outflows that might mean thieves.

For safety, opening or waking up online accounts needs “liveness checks.” This means you prove you’re real-time alive by blinking, smiling, talking, or turning your head on camera—matched to your Bank Verification Number (BVN) and National ID.

Mobile apps lock to one phone or device at a time. No using the same app on two gadgets together. Switching phones? Full check again.

New mobile apps or new devices get tiny limits for the first 24 hours—just ₦20,000 in or out—to test for tricks. Internet banking from a new gadget also needs extra MFA steps first time.

CBN says these are basic must-dos to protect users, catch crooks faster, and let people control their money better.

The rules come as more Nigerians use phones for quick transfers via apps like Opay, Palmpay, and bank wallets—saving time but facing scams.

CBN balances this growth with tough safety to build trust. Banks must follow or face fines, helping everyday workers, traders, and families bank without fear.


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