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New Technologies Will Drive ICT Spending Back to Double GDP Rate, Growth- IDC

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By peter oluka

Worldwide information and communications technology (ICT) spending is set to accelerate over the next five years, thanks to the growth of new technologies including the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), and cognitive computing and artificial intelligence (AI).

While the latest International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Black Book forecasts traditional ICT spending to lag GDP growth by 2020, total ICT spending including these new categories will return to growth rates double that of the global economy.

Total ICT spending on traditional IT, telecom services, and new technologies will grow from $4.3 trillion in 2016 to $5.6 trillion by 2021, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% in constant currency terms. Annual growth will accelerate through the forecast period, from 5.5% in 2017 to 6.5% in 2021, as new technologies account for a growing proportion of the overall market.

Traditional ICT spending (IT and telecom) is now a mature sector of the economy, as many technology markets continue to saturate and commoditize.

The growth of cloud will also cannibalize from traditional ICT revenues, concentrating more IT capital spending into the hands of large cloud service providers. Traditional IT spending will grow at an annual rate of 3-4% through the next five years, while telecom spending increases by approximately 1% per year.

New growth opportunities have meanwhile emerged in the new technologies which IDC calls “Innovation Accelerators” (IoT, cognitive AI, robotics, AR/VR, 3D printing, and next-gen security). New ICT spending from these categories will grow by 17% in 2017, and will continue to accelerate over the next five years as adoption levels surge around the world, including in emerging markets. IoT, robotics, and AR/VR in particular will come to represent a significant proportion of the overall ICT market by 2021.

“The Innovation Accelerators are an important driver for the 3rd Platform, which is rapidly replacing the 2nd Platform of on-premise datacenters, devices, and software,” said Stephen Minton, vice president in IDC’s Customer Insights & Analysis group. “Not only does this introduce new high-growth categories like VR viewers, drones, 3D printers, and IoT solutions, but it also represents a growing shift in traditional categories like the growth of IoT servers or cognitive AI software.”

Several years ago, IDC identified a dramatic shift to the 3rd Platform of cloud, mobile, big data and analytics and social, which quickly came to dominate industry revenues. The Innovation Accelerators will drive the next wave of 3rd Platform growth, resulting in the 3rd Platform accounting for 75% of ICT spending by 2021.

“The 2nd Platform is shrinking, but mature economies still have a large base of legacy infrastructure to maintain and migrate from,” said Minton. “Emerging markets, on the other hand, are sometimes able to leapfrog 2nd Platform technologies and move straight to rapid adoption of new platforms. Asia/Pacific, for example, has emerged as a leading innovator in the growth of IoT and robotics, having already seen explosive growth in mobile over the past few years.”

While emerging markets like Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) are driving the growth of some new categories, enterprises in the United States continue to be early adopters of software-based innovation, including cloud, big data and analytics, and cognitive AI. It will take longer for some emerging economies to reach the same level of software development and infrastructure that has enabled the rapid growth of cloud-based computing in the U.S. Nevertheless, the direction of ICT spending is the same in every region.

“In the Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) region, most 2nd Platform technology categories are in decline,” said Thomas Vavra, vice president of Software research in the CEMA region. “Conversely, and with the exception of a couple of mobile device categories, every technology on the 3rd Platform is growing strongly. In short, 3rd Platform investments are the growth engine of the IT market in the region.”

Like many emerging markets, CEE has lagged behind some mature economies when it comes to the adoption of technologies such as cloud, which are more dependent on fixed-line infrastructure, or in the development of cutting-edge software solutions for the local market. Asia/Pacific, for example, accounted for more than 50% of global IoT spending in 2016 but only 6% of investment in cognitive AI. In the longer term, however, the continued growth of investment in mobile infrastructure and software solutions will come to drive these regions to the next level of 3rd Platform innovation.

“Mobility and IoT have already made a big impact on IT spending in the CEE region and will continue to grow strongly,” said Vavra. “Although relatively small at present, AR/VR and cognitive AI are meanwhile expected to outgrow all other technology categories over the next few years.”


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Business

Kaspersky Warns of a New Phishing Technique Leveraging Bubble, a no-code AI Platform

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Kaspersky has discovered a new phishing tactic used to evade traditional security controls that exploits Bubble, a platform that allows users to build web and mobile applications through a visual interface without writing code.

Attackers are increasingly adopting innovative tools designed for legitimate software development and repurposing them to boost phishing campaigns.

Traditional phishing attacks often rely on malicious links or obvious redirection techniques, which are typically flagged and blocked by modern security systems.

However, attackers are now leveraging Bubble’s no-code environment to generate intermediary web applications which are hosted on Bubble’s legitimate infrastructure and trusted domains such as *.bubble.io, which improves their credibility and helps them bypass security filters.

These applications function as disguised redirectors, silently forwarding victims to malicious credential-harvesting websites.

In the observed campaign, victims were ultimately redirected to a convincing imitation of a Microsoft login page, protected by a Cloudflare verification layer designed to further obscure malicious intent.

This technique is likely being integrated into broader phishing-as-a-service (PhaaS) platforms and phishing kits. These kits enable a wide range of malicious capabilities with ready-made tools, including real-time interception of session cookies, driving phishing campaigns through legitimate services such as Google Tasks and Google Forms, and carry out adversary-in-the-middle (AiTM) attacks that can bypass multi-factor authentication.

They also support the generation of phishing emails using AI, implement geo-filtering and anti-detection mechanisms to evade security crawlers and are often hosted on reputable cloud services like AWS to avoid blacklisting.

“The use of legitimate platforms like Bubble introduces a new level of trust abuse, making it harder for both users and automated systems to distinguish between safe and malicious content. This significantly increases the likelihood of credential theft, unauthorised access and potential data breaches,” comments Roman Dedenok, Anti-Spam Expert at Kaspersky.

 

 


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NITDA Takes Over National Digital Architecture System

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Nigeria has taken a major step toward strengthening its digital governance framework as the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) officially assumes control of the Nigeria Government Enterprise Architecture (NGEA) infrastructure.

NITDA Takes Over National Digital Architecture System

The handover ceremony held in Abuja, marks the culmination of a high-level partnership with the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA).

This transition signals a shift from fragmented IT projects to a unified, disciplined approach to national digital investment.

The NGEA initiative forms a core part of the e-Government Masterplan 2.0 (Ne-GMP 2.0), aimed at establishing a unified and structured approach to managing government IT investments and digital resources.

The framework is designed to ensure that technology deployment across public institutions aligns with national priorities while improving efficiency and accountability.

With the system now operational, government agencies are expected to adopt more integrated digital processes, allowing seamless data sharing and interoperability.

This is anticipated to reduce duplication, strengthen risk management, and translate policy objectives into measurable digital outcomes.

Over the past two and a half years, Nigerian technical experts worked closely with their Korean counterparts to develop the architecture framework, create reference models, and execute pilot programmes in key institutions.

These include the National Identity Management Commission, Nigeria Customs Service, Nigeria Immigration Service, and NITDA.

Officials say the NGEA represents a shift from fragmented digital efforts to a more coordinated, citizen-focused system.

The infrastructure is hosted by Galaxy Backbone Limited, providing a secure and reliable platform for nationwide deployment.

Looking ahead, NITDA is expected to work with government stakeholders to expand and sustain the system, while the Federal Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy will provide policy guidance to ensure its adoption across the country.

 

 


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FG Shifting Focus to “Meaningful Connectivity” to Drive Inclusion  – Minister

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Bosun Tijani, minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, has said the government is shifting focus from expanding access to ensuring “meaningful connectivity” that drives economic growth and inclusion.

FG Shifting Focus to “Meaningful Connectivity” to Drive Inclusion  - Minister

Bosun Tijani, minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy

The minister made the statement on Friday while addressing stakeholders at the inauguration of board members of the Universal Service Provision Fund (USPF) in Abuja.

He said that although Nigeria had made significant progress since the introduction of GSM services, millions of people, particularly in rural and underserved communities, remain either unconnected or unable to fully benefit from digital services.

Dr Tijani highlighted ongoing investments in digital infrastructure, including plans to deploy 90,000 kilometres of fibre optic network and nearly 4,000 telecom towers nationwide.

He said initiatives under the USPF had improved access through projects such as rural connectivity and digital facilities in schools but stressed that the next phase must prioritise effective usage.

“It is not enough to connect a community. We must ensure that schools can teach with digital tools and that small businesses can access market opportunities,” he said, citing a pilot project in the Kura community where connectivity has enhanced access to communication, education and healthcare.

Aminu Maida, executive vice chairman, Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) also called for a shift towards meaningful connectivity, noting that while data usage had grown significantly, it remained concentrated in urban areas.

According to him, recent data shows that telecom usage has increased by about 160% over the past two years, largely driven by urban demand.

“When we drill down, we see that a lot of that growth is actually in urban centres. So, the gap between those who are not connected or not meaningfully connected is growing,” he said.

Dr Maida added that the trend underscored the need for the USPF board to intensify efforts to bridge both access and usage gaps across the country.

Both officials emphasised the importance of collaboration, sustainable investment models and improved digital literacy to ensure that connectivity translates into real economic benefits for Nigerians.

 

 


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