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CBN Should Cut Interest Rate in 2018 To Boost Investors’ Confidence- Otunuga

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Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM. Prior to joining FXTM, Lukman spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets.

Lukman was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M.  Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions. Lukman recently had chat with select media organisations. Peter oluka was there for Nigeria CommunicationsWeek.

Nigeria Exited Recession

I was very happy when we heard news a few months back about the growth in Q2 (quarter 2, 2017), breaking the barriers to economic growth. It was very good and expected. If you look at the steps taken by the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), especially at the start of the year, they have done well. When the country’s economy slide to recession, I knew it was going to have a large impact.

The CBN realised that cost inflation was the major issue, sharp depreciation of Naira skyrocketed the situation with cost of importation became quite expensive. The importers where sending the costs back to the consumers. So, by opening the important and export forex window helped to cushion the effect. Presently, naira is N360/$ and the official rate is N305/$, so it is a great departure from what we saw in February this year.

Secondly, what I have realised, if you look closely at the Government; the $5.5billion loan which everybody has been talking about, this is quite big. One, if you look at the breakdown of the loan, you will realise that $2.5billion will be utilised in funding the 2018 budget. For an ‘infrastructure budget’, this is very good. This is what international investors want to hear; that Nigeria is moving forward to funding infrastructure and diversifying. Through that means, the investors’ sentiments towards Nigeria will be positive. Part of the loan is used to service local debt, which is also good.

A few weeks ago Moody downgraded Nigeria from B1 to B2 and the reason gave was that after the budget, they suggested, that Nigeria wasn’t taking the right steps. So, Nigeria was unsuccessful in shielding investments and the economy from oil shocks. While I understand reason they put that out there, we must know that the journey for Nigeria to diversify is not going to happen overnight. It is something that will take a couple of year. E.g. if you look at GDP growth in the third quarter (Q3) it was 1.4%; a chunk of it was through oil price recovery. What other people are not saying is that another chunk of it came from agriculture. So, Nigeria is taking steps to invest in other sustainable socio-economic growth.

Projections About 2018 Budget

Before making these predictions, we have to look at 2018 ‘Budget of consolidation’. I believe if you look closely at the budget, probably, the Nigerian Government has learnt lessons from previous budgets.

First, they must move and implement that budget by approving it in January 2018. We don’t want to see a situation what happened in 2017 when the budget was passed until middle of the year. If you look at figures, the Government has predicted that oil price will be at $45 at 2.3m/barrels per day at N305/$.

While I agree with the $45 and N305/$, I am sceptical about the 2.3m barrels/day. Keep in mind that OPEC meeting may probably hold early next year; presently, Nigeria is except from crude oil cut. I hope the Government has put into consideration that OPEC has actually requested all members to cut production to 1.8m barrels/day. But Nigeria’s exception was due to conflicts in the Niger-Delta. If this is being fixed, who knows, OPEC may start to ask Nigeria: it’s time for you to cut production back to 1.8m barrels/day. Right now, Nigeria’s production is 2m barrels/day. So, if you move oil production to 1.8million barrels/day from 2.3m, it something to consider.

In furtherance to my comments back in February, as inflation continues to subside, probably when it gets below 14%, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should be offered the power to cut the interest rates to 12%. This is what we have been saying; once they do that they will actually encourage businesses to loan, thereby stimulating economic growth.

When it comes to Naira, the CBN has done a great job, stabilizing the Naira by nafex, improving the liquidity of the currency. We see the naira stabilising in the parallel market taking closer to CBN’s rate of N305/$

Key infrastructural development government should focus on in 2018

Top on the priority list of infrastructure that government should consider is the electricity. Statistics shows that electricity creation in Nigeria is very low. Stable electricity will naturally impact the businesses that will feed-back the economic growth. Roads are also important, especially in transporting goods.

Today, when we were moving around, the roads are very bad with deeps and gullies. Agriculture is another very important part that the Government will look into. Looking closely to the Nigerian population of 190million people; this is over 50% of the whole population of West Africa and we know that Nigeria has high rate of youth unemployment; these are able-bodied young people.

If the government can invest more on innovative farming, it could be the medium to absorb some of the young people. Not only will this support employment, but will enable Nigeria have food security. Yes, the economy has improved compared to February, but being able to grow and export our food is very important too. So, electricity, road and agriculture are three key areas government must not fail to address.

Following that, naturally, are, education, health and manufacturing.

Assessment of Nigeria’s Ability To Leverage Int’l Trade Agreements

To be honest, after the President went to China and the pronouncement was made that Nigeria and China has entered into agreement on the Yuan, I haven’t heard anything about it again. I wouldn’t know if the Government is trying to focus, first, internally; to be sure we are in the right and stable position, before we start dealing with international trade agreements.

Cryptocurreny and the Future of Online Forex

I don’t really blame the people who are still sceptical about bitcoin. Could you believe Bitcoin would ever sell for over $10,000? At the start of the year, it was below $1,000. That is over 900% increase which is why people jumping in; it is an amazing opportunity. But the problem with bitcoin is there is no real fundamental behind it. The main driver behind it is simply investors jumping in. It’s just like the stock market is rising, every body would want to be part of it. It rises on speculation.

Another thing about Bitcoin is, it doesn’t have really intrinsic value, which raises the fear it could be another massive speculated bubble. And we know what happens to bubbles- they burst. This is why the Nigerian Government is very protective, especially for the people of Nigeria jumping at it. Because something that lack intrinsic value, extremely volatile and not even licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) nor covered by insurance, if you jump in and lose, that is the end of it.

Inspite, the scepticism, there are still the positives. We heard about the CME Group; they are planning to launch bitcoin features this month. That is a big move, because they are going to trade bitcoin, and track investors like banks. This will be a game changer in the bitcoin segment; who knows it will hit $25,000 by 2018. It is just that it remains a bubble….

….What are Bitcoin’s impact on forex market?

Honestly, I haven’t seen any bitcoin bullish impact on the forex market. With regards to how it has impacted the financial market in general, there have been some talks it is becoming the new safe haven. Such asset depicts that people are not safe and would like to have a safe net for their assets. It’s similar to what happens with gold.


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E-Financial

Customs Slam 3 Percent Surcharge on Banks over Delayed Revenue Remittance

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Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has imposed a three per cent surcharge on Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) over delays in the remittance of Customs revenue by designated banks.

Customs Slam 3 Percent Surcharge on Banks over Delayed Revenue Remittance

The development was disclosed by Abdullahi Maiwada, national public relations officer of the Service,  in a statement titled “Nigeria Customs Service Commences Enforcement of Penalties Against Designated Banks for Delayed Remittance of Customs Revenue.”

The agency stated that delays in remitting collected Customs revenue constitute a breach of remittance obligations and negatively impact the efficiency, transparency and integrity of government revenue administration.

Maiwada explained that any Designated Bank that fails to remit collected Customs revenue within the prescribed period will be liable to penalty interest, adding that affected banks will receive formal notifications detailing the delayed amount, applicable penalty and the timeline for settlement.

“The NCS has noted instances of delayed remittance of Customs revenue by some Designated Banks following reconciliation of collections processed through the B’Odogwu platform. Such delays constitute a breach of remittance obligations and negatively impact the efficiency, transparency and integrity of government revenue administration.

“In line with the provisions of the Service Level Agreement (SLA) executed between the Nigeria Customs Service and Designated Banks, the Service hereby notifies stakeholders of the commencement of enforcement actions against banks found to be in default of agreed remittance timelines.

“Accordingly, any Designated Bank that fails to remit collected Customs revenue within the prescribed period shall be liable to penalty interest calculated at three per cent above the prevailing Nigerian Interbank Offered Rate for the duration of the delay. Affected banks will receive formal notifications indicating the delayed amount, applicable penalty and the timeline for settlement.”

Maiwada further advised Designated Banks to strengthen their internal controls, ensure strict adherence to remittance timelines and comply fully with the provisions of the SLA.

He reiterated that the Service remains committed to enforcing accountability, safeguarding government revenue and promoting a transparent and predictable financial system in support of national economic development.

“The Service further notes that persistent or repeated non-compliance with the terms of the SLA may attract additional sanctions, including regulatory and administrative measures, as provided under the Agreement and relevant laws guiding Customs revenue collection.

“The NCS reiterates that prompt, accurate and complete remittance of Customs revenue is a fundamental obligation of Designated Banks. Any payment of collected revenue into unauthorised accounts, whether deliberate or erroneous, will be treated as a serious violation and addressed in accordance with the SLA and applicable legal frameworks.

“Designated Banks are therefore advised to strengthen internal controls, ensure strict adherence to remittance timelines and comply fully with the provisions of the SLA. The Service remains committed to enforcing accountability, safeguarding government revenue and promoting a transparent and predictable financial system in support of national economic development,” he added.


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World Bank to Approve $500m Loan for Nigeria Today

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The World Bank is set to approve a $500m loan to Nigeria on Friday (today) as part of efforts to expand access to finance for micro, small and medium enterprises across the country, according to Punch.

World Bank to Approve $500m Loan for Nigeria Today

The proposed facility, titled the Fostering Inclusive Finance for MSMEs in Nigeria (FINCLUDE) Project, aims to mobilise private capital and promote innovative financial products for small businesses, according to information obtained from the World Bank.

Negotiations on the loan are ongoing, and approval by the World Bank Group’s board is expected on Friday.

The approval, expected on December 19, 2025, will see the World Bank commit $500m to the project out of an estimated total cost of $2.39bn.

Of the World Bank financing, $400m will be provided by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, while $100m will come from the International Development Association.

The Federal Government will be the borrower under the arrangement, with the Development Bank of Nigeria serving as the implementing agency with overall responsibility for managing the funds.

The remaining $1.89bn required for the project is expected to be provided by commercial lenders as unguaranteed financing.

According to the World Bank, the FINCLUDE project will leverage the platforms of the Development Bank of Nigeria and its subsidiary, Impact Credit Guarantee Limited, to deepen credit access for MSMEs.

“The proposed FINCLUDE Project leverages the platforms of the Development Bank of Nigeria and its subsidiary, the Impact Credit Guarantee Limited, to drive inclusive MSME finance,” a document from the World Bank read.

“Through these catalytic institutions, the project will deploy a package of complementary, inclusive, and innovative instruments tailored to the diverse needs of MSMEs in Nigeria.”

The World Bank described DBN as “a partner well known to the World Bank with high implementation capacity and a proven track record in designing and executing complex, innovative projects,” noting that its role would be central to the success of the intervention.

The project is structured around three main components. These include the provision of inclusive and innovative MSME finance products, the de-risking and mobilisation of private capital through partial credit guarantees, and technical assistance aimed at modernising and digitising Nigeria’s MSME finance ecosystem.

Under the first component, the World Bank said the project would provide Tier 2 subordinated capital to eligible financial institutions and support the establishment of an MSME investment fund to deliver equity and long-term debt financing to small businesses.

The bank said this approach would help “crowd-in private capital, test market innovations and promote financial sustainability” within the MSME segment.

Also, the project will offer targeted technical assistance to strengthen the capacity of financial institutions, improve regulatory oversight and modernise the MSME finance value chain linking DBN, lenders and entrepreneurs.

In its appraisal report, the World Bank highlighted Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, describing the country as being “in a critical transition.”

It noted that the removal of fuel and foreign exchange subsidies, alongside the unification of exchange rates, had begun to stabilise the economy and restore investor confidence.

“These reforms have improved fiscal space, enhanced FX liquidity, and eased inflation to 18 per cent as of September 2025,” the report stated, adding that growth prospects were strengthening, with the International Monetary Fund projecting 3.9 per cent real GDP growth in 2025.

Despite these improvements, the World Bank warned that access to finance remained uneven, particularly for MSMEs, women and the agriculture sector.

It noted that agriculture accounted for just over five per cent of total bank credit in 2024, while high interest rates and shallow credit penetration continued to constrain lending to smaller enterprises.


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Fidelity Bank Boosts Maternal, Child Healthcare @ESUTH

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L-R: Public Relations Officer, Enugu State University Teaching Hospital (ESUTH), Amarachi Amusi; Team Member, Optimizers Inductees Class of 2025, Precious Uchechi-Uneke; Class Governor, Optimizers Inductees Class of 2025, Chinedu Hilary-Elijah (both of Fidelity Bank Plc); Matron, Children's Ward ESUTH, Esther Nnaji; and Team Lead, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), Fidelity Bank Plc, Victoria Abuka; during the Fidelity Helping Hands Program (FHHP) outreach to ESUTH recently.
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Fidelity Bank Plc has brought relief to indigent patients at the Enugu State University Teaching Hospital (ESUTH) Parklane, by offsetting medical bills and providing financial support to children battling chronic health conditions alongside donations of ante-natal kits to pregnant women.

Fidelity Bank Boosts Maternal, Child Healthcare @ESUTH

L-R: Public Relations Officer, Enugu State University Teaching Hospital (ESUTH), Amarachi Amusi; Team Member, Optimizers Inductees Class of 2025, Precious Uchechi-Uneke; Class Governor, Optimizers Inductees Class of 2025, Chinedu Hilary-Elijah (both of Fidelity Bank Plc); Matron, Children’s Ward ESUTH, Esther Nnaji; and Team Lead, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), Fidelity Bank Plc, Victoria Abuka; during the Fidelity Helping Hands Program (FHHP) outreach to ESUTH recently.

The intervention, which was carried out under the bank’s Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiative known as Fidelity Helping Hands Programme (FHHP), was funded and executed by newly inducted employees of the bank, the Optimizers Inductees Class, as their community impact project, with matching financial support from the bank.

Commenting on the outreach, Divisional Head, Brand and Communications Division, Fidelity Bank Plc, Dr Meksley Nwagboh, highlighted that the initiative underscores the bank’s commitment to improving lives through targeted social interventions across its four CSR pillars.

“This project reflects the spirit of who we are as a bank. Beyond providing financial services, we are committed to touching lives within the communities where we operate. Today, we are donating ante-natal kits to pregnant women and also supporting indigent patients who have remained in the hospital due to unpaid bills. Some of the children also require long-term medical care, so we have given additional financial support to aid their continued treatment,” Dr Nwagboh said.

Whilst wishing the beneficiaries quick recovery and good health, Nwagboh described the intervention as both significant and timely, enabling many families to reunite and celebrate the festive season without the burden of outstanding hospital debts.

Receiving the donation, the Chief Matron of the Children’s Ward, Esther Nnaji, commended Fidelity Bank for the timely intervention, describing it as a lifeline for families grappling with rising healthcare costs.

“There are so many families here in desperate need. Some of the children are battling cancer, sickle cell disease and other chronic conditions. Fidelity Bank’s support will go a long way in relieving their pain. Because of what you have done, some of these children will now be able to see their siblings again,” she said.

Several beneficiaries expressed deep gratitude to Fidelity Bank for easing their financial burdens. Mrs. Adaeze Ilo, whose baby’s bill was cleared, said the support came at a moment of despair.

“After spending months in the hospital, we had no idea how to raise the money,” she said. “Fidelity Bank came through for us when we needed it the most. We are deeply grateful.”

Another relieved parent, Jane Anthony, whose son’s bill was cleared, said her family had already accepted that they would spend Christmas in the hospital.

“God used Fidelity Bank to send us home to enjoy Christmas. My heart is full.” she said.

The recent outreach to Enugu State University Teaching Hospital further highlights Fidelity Bank’s continued commitment to supporting vulnerable groups and strengthening community well-being across Nigeria through community-driven CSR efforts.

Ranked among the best banks in Nigeria, Fidelity Bank Plc is a full-fledged Commercial Deposit Money Bank serving over 9.1 million customers through digital banking channels, its 255 business offices in Nigeria and United Kingdom subsidiary, FidBank UK Limited.

The Bank is a recipient of multiple local and international Awards, including the 2024 Excellence in Digital Transformation & MSME Banking Award by BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards; the 2024 Most Innovative Mobile Banking Application award for its Fidelity Mobile App by Global Business Outlook, and the 2024 Most Innovative Investment Banking Service Provider award by Global Brands Magazine. Additionally, the Bank was recognized as the Best Bank for SMEs in Nigeria by the Euromoney Awards for Excellence and as the Export Financing Bank of the Year by the BusinessDay Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFI) Awards.


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