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CBN Should Cut Interest Rate in 2018 To Boost Investors’ Confidence- Otunuga

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Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM. Prior to joining FXTM, Lukman spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets.

Lukman was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M.  Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions. Lukman recently had chat with select media organisations. Peter oluka was there for Nigeria CommunicationsWeek.

Nigeria Exited Recession

I was very happy when we heard news a few months back about the growth in Q2 (quarter 2, 2017), breaking the barriers to economic growth. It was very good and expected. If you look at the steps taken by the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), especially at the start of the year, they have done well. When the country’s economy slide to recession, I knew it was going to have a large impact.

The CBN realised that cost inflation was the major issue, sharp depreciation of Naira skyrocketed the situation with cost of importation became quite expensive. The importers where sending the costs back to the consumers. So, by opening the important and export forex window helped to cushion the effect. Presently, naira is N360/$ and the official rate is N305/$, so it is a great departure from what we saw in February this year.

Secondly, what I have realised, if you look closely at the Government; the $5.5billion loan which everybody has been talking about, this is quite big. One, if you look at the breakdown of the loan, you will realise that $2.5billion will be utilised in funding the 2018 budget. For an ‘infrastructure budget’, this is very good. This is what international investors want to hear; that Nigeria is moving forward to funding infrastructure and diversifying. Through that means, the investors’ sentiments towards Nigeria will be positive. Part of the loan is used to service local debt, which is also good.

A few weeks ago Moody downgraded Nigeria from B1 to B2 and the reason gave was that after the budget, they suggested, that Nigeria wasn’t taking the right steps. So, Nigeria was unsuccessful in shielding investments and the economy from oil shocks. While I understand reason they put that out there, we must know that the journey for Nigeria to diversify is not going to happen overnight. It is something that will take a couple of year. E.g. if you look at GDP growth in the third quarter (Q3) it was 1.4%; a chunk of it was through oil price recovery. What other people are not saying is that another chunk of it came from agriculture. So, Nigeria is taking steps to invest in other sustainable socio-economic growth.

Projections About 2018 Budget

Before making these predictions, we have to look at 2018 ‘Budget of consolidation’. I believe if you look closely at the budget, probably, the Nigerian Government has learnt lessons from previous budgets.

First, they must move and implement that budget by approving it in January 2018. We don’t want to see a situation what happened in 2017 when the budget was passed until middle of the year. If you look at figures, the Government has predicted that oil price will be at $45 at 2.3m/barrels per day at N305/$.

While I agree with the $45 and N305/$, I am sceptical about the 2.3m barrels/day. Keep in mind that OPEC meeting may probably hold early next year; presently, Nigeria is except from crude oil cut. I hope the Government has put into consideration that OPEC has actually requested all members to cut production to 1.8m barrels/day. But Nigeria’s exception was due to conflicts in the Niger-Delta. If this is being fixed, who knows, OPEC may start to ask Nigeria: it’s time for you to cut production back to 1.8m barrels/day. Right now, Nigeria’s production is 2m barrels/day. So, if you move oil production to 1.8million barrels/day from 2.3m, it something to consider.

In furtherance to my comments back in February, as inflation continues to subside, probably when it gets below 14%, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should be offered the power to cut the interest rates to 12%. This is what we have been saying; once they do that they will actually encourage businesses to loan, thereby stimulating economic growth.

When it comes to Naira, the CBN has done a great job, stabilizing the Naira by nafex, improving the liquidity of the currency. We see the naira stabilising in the parallel market taking closer to CBN’s rate of N305/$

Key infrastructural development government should focus on in 2018

Top on the priority list of infrastructure that government should consider is the electricity. Statistics shows that electricity creation in Nigeria is very low. Stable electricity will naturally impact the businesses that will feed-back the economic growth. Roads are also important, especially in transporting goods.

Today, when we were moving around, the roads are very bad with deeps and gullies. Agriculture is another very important part that the Government will look into. Looking closely to the Nigerian population of 190million people; this is over 50% of the whole population of West Africa and we know that Nigeria has high rate of youth unemployment; these are able-bodied young people.

If the government can invest more on innovative farming, it could be the medium to absorb some of the young people. Not only will this support employment, but will enable Nigeria have food security. Yes, the economy has improved compared to February, but being able to grow and export our food is very important too. So, electricity, road and agriculture are three key areas government must not fail to address.

Following that, naturally, are, education, health and manufacturing.

Assessment of Nigeria’s Ability To Leverage Int’l Trade Agreements

To be honest, after the President went to China and the pronouncement was made that Nigeria and China has entered into agreement on the Yuan, I haven’t heard anything about it again. I wouldn’t know if the Government is trying to focus, first, internally; to be sure we are in the right and stable position, before we start dealing with international trade agreements.

Cryptocurreny and the Future of Online Forex

I don’t really blame the people who are still sceptical about bitcoin. Could you believe Bitcoin would ever sell for over $10,000? At the start of the year, it was below $1,000. That is over 900% increase which is why people jumping in; it is an amazing opportunity. But the problem with bitcoin is there is no real fundamental behind it. The main driver behind it is simply investors jumping in. It’s just like the stock market is rising, every body would want to be part of it. It rises on speculation.

Another thing about Bitcoin is, it doesn’t have really intrinsic value, which raises the fear it could be another massive speculated bubble. And we know what happens to bubbles- they burst. This is why the Nigerian Government is very protective, especially for the people of Nigeria jumping at it. Because something that lack intrinsic value, extremely volatile and not even licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) nor covered by insurance, if you jump in and lose, that is the end of it.

Inspite, the scepticism, there are still the positives. We heard about the CME Group; they are planning to launch bitcoin features this month. That is a big move, because they are going to trade bitcoin, and track investors like banks. This will be a game changer in the bitcoin segment; who knows it will hit $25,000 by 2018. It is just that it remains a bubble….

….What are Bitcoin’s impact on forex market?

Honestly, I haven’t seen any bitcoin bullish impact on the forex market. With regards to how it has impacted the financial market in general, there have been some talks it is becoming the new safe haven. Such asset depicts that people are not safe and would like to have a safe net for their assets. It’s similar to what happens with gold.


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

NRS Accredits Afri Invoice as Access Point Provider to Drive Nigeria’s Mandatory e-invoicing

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Ahead of the July deadline, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has accredited Afri Invoice as an official Access Point Provider (APP) in a major move for digital tax compliance across Nigeria.

This sovereign endorsement thrusts the emerging fintech leader into an elite tier of technology firms trusted to handle the nation’s fiscal data infrastructure.

With the July deadline looming, this offers an opportunity for Nigerian Businesses to get adequate onboarding support.

Crucially, this landmark certification comes on the heels of Afri Invoice also recently being licensed as an official Systems Integrator by the NRS—granting the company rare dual-licensed status within the national ecosystem.

BAs Nigeria rapidly transitions to a transparent, real-time fiscal economy, Afri Invoice now serves as a fully unified, secure gateway.

With this double mandate, the platform is uniquely positioned to both seamlessly integrate legacy corporate networks and directly validate, digitally sign, and transmit automated electronic invoices straight into the central NRS Merchant Buyer Solution (MBS) infrastructure.

The NRS launched the MBS platform to combat tax evasion, boost state revenues, and mandate transaction transparency across Africas largest economy.

Operating as a centralised real-time ledger, the platform intercepts and logs B2B and B2G transactions right at the point of sale.

Speaking on this milestone, Mark Odenore, Founder of Afri Invoice, said: “This accreditation represents one of the most significant moments in Afri Invoice’s journey.

“For years, we have believed that compliance should not be a financial burden that only large corporations can afford.

“The NRS has handed us the opportunity to be the bridge connecting Nigeria’s entire business community to this new era. We view e-invoicing as a launchpad for modern corporate efficiency, transparency, and growth.”

Large taxpayers transitioned during the initial rollout phase, and the NRS is actively expanding the mandate to medium and small enterprises. Because direct connection to government servers demands rigid compliance, APPs serve as the vital intermediaries.

To earn this license from NITDA, Afri Invoice underwent extensive evaluation, proving its technical resilience, software architecture quality, OAuth 2.0 security protocols, and strict alignment with the international PEPPOL interoperability framework.

A Sovereign Endorsement for Afri Invoice is not merely a commercial credential; it is a profound operational responsibility. Inclusion in the official NRS Solutions Provider Directory means businesses can confidently deploy Afri Invoice to shield themselves from compliance risks.

For Nigerian enterprises navigating these shifting tax laws, Afri Invoice eliminates technical friction by automating the full invoice lifecycle.

The platform seamlessly handles Native ERP Integration, synchronises data across international standard formats like JSON, manages real-time data submission, digital signing, and certificate lifecycles, and provides clear audit trails and dashboards for CFOs to eliminate manual human error and speed up close cycles.

Crucially, the platform supports all NRS-mandated tax categories, quantity codes, and payment statuses, future-proofing businesses as global cross-border invoice interoperability rolls out.

Ms. Fatimata Niang, the Director of Strategy &Operations, noted: “Our architecture was engineered to the highest global standards for security, interoperability, and scale.

“Every invoice running through our system is cryptographically secured and fully traceable from the millisecond it is generated. As the mandate expands to millions of taxpayers, our infrastructure is primed to handle massive volume without compromising on speed or security.”

Afri Invoice is a premier Nigerian financial technology company building modern digital invoicing and fiscal infrastructure.

Through robust API-driven solutions aligned with NRS, NITDA, and international PEPPOL protocols, the company empowers enterprises and SMEs to achieve effortless compliance with minimal technical overhead.

 


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Reps Committee Recovers N521m Unremitted VAT from CBN

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House of Representatives Public Accounts Committee (PAC) says it has recovered over ₦521 million in unremitted Value Added Tax (VAT) from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Reps Committee Recovers N521m Unremitted VAT from CBN

This is part of an ongoing investigation into revenue leakages and outstanding funds owed to the federal government.

Bamidele Salam, chairman of the Committee, disclosed this while providing an update on the probe into transactions conducted through the Remita platform.

According to Salam, the investigation was initiated following a resolution of the House of Representatives to examine alleged revenue leakages, non-compliance with standard operating procedures and breaches of service level agreements linked to the Remita payment platform.

He said the committee had uncovered several outstanding liabilities and led to multiple recoveries.

Salam revealed that the committee discovered that the CBN failed to remit VAT amounting to ₦521,765,134.17, representing tax deductions on fees earned from Remita transactions.

He described the recovery as evidence of the effectiveness of legislative oversight in promoting accountability and safeguarding public resources.

The lawmaker maintained that the committee would recover all outstanding funds due to the Federal Government and blocking avenues for revenue leakages across public institutions.

It added that the CBN has been directed to remit the outstanding amount into the Federal Government Treasury and provide evidence of compliance.

The Public Accounts Committee is expected to continue its hearing on the matter on Monday, June 8, 2026, at the National Assembly in Abuja.

 

 

 

 


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CBN Imposes N100m Penalty on Dealing Bank Inadequate Processing of Forex Documents

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said that any authorised dealer bank the processes foreign exchange (forex) transactions without proper documentation will be fined N100 million.

CBN Imposes N100m Penalty on Dealing Bank Inadequate Processing of Forex Documents

In addition, the bank will pay N10 million for each transaction involved.

The sanctions are contained in the fourth edition of the Foreign Exchange Manual, which serves as a guide for participants in Nigeria’s forex market.

According to the CBN, the updated manual aims to improve compliance, increase transparency, and strengthen confidence in the foreign exchange system.

Banks are now required to obtain, verify, and keep all necessary documents before releasing foreign currency to customers.

Similar documentation requirements apply to forward and swap transactions, where proof of the underlying trade or obligation must be provided before settlement.

For import transactions, importers must continue to provide documents such as Form M, invoices, certificates of origin, packing lists, and shipping documents.

They must also submit Exchange Control Documents within 90 days after negotiating shipping documents through overseas correspondent banks.

The CBN warned that failure to meet documentation requirements will attract escalating sanctions.

A first violation will result in a 90-day suspension from forex transactions, a second violation will attract a 180-day suspension, and a third offence will lead to a one-year suspension.

A fourth violation could result in a complete ban from participating in forex transactions.

Banks that fail to report cases of default to the CBN will also face sanctions.

The apex bank further tightened reporting requirements. Institutions that submit required daily or monthly returns late will be fined N500,000, while those that fail to submit returns at all will pay a minimum of N5 million, plus an additional N500,000 daily until compliance is achieved.Afternoon Paper Subscription

The revised manual also strengthens oversight of banks’ foreign currency exposure.

Financial institutions that exceed approved Net Open Position limits will receive a warning for the first offence, a 10-working-day suspension from the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market for the second offence, and a 90-day suspension for the third violation.

The CBN also imposed sanctions on unauthorised reallocation of foreign exchange funds. Any bank found engaging in such practices will be fined N10 million per transaction and may face additional disciplinary action under the Bankers’ Committee ethics framework.

According to the CBN, the new measures are aimed at promoting transparency, strengthening market discipline, reducing abuses, and improving investor confidence in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

 


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