E-Financial
CBN Should Cut Interest Rate in 2018 To Boost Investors’ Confidence- Otunuga

Lukman Otunuga is a research analyst at FXTM. Prior to joining FXTM, Lukman spent two years as a research analyst with international currency broker FXCM, where he focused on technical and fundamental analysis of the global currency, commodity and stock markets.
Lukman was also responsible for leading educational seminars for international and local high net worth individuals, and has published a series of educational articles on forex trading with City A.M. Lukman holds a BSc (hons) degree in Economics from the University of Essex, UK and an MSc in Finance from London School of Business and Finance, where he studied corporate finance, mergers & acquisitions and the role of international financial institutions. Lukman recently had chat with select media organisations. Peter oluka was there for Nigeria CommunicationsWeek.
Nigeria Exited Recession
I was very happy when we heard news a few months back about the growth in Q2 (quarter 2, 2017), breaking the barriers to economic growth. It was very good and expected. If you look at the steps taken by the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), especially at the start of the year, they have done well. When the country’s economy slide to recession, I knew it was going to have a large impact.
The CBN realised that cost inflation was the major issue, sharp depreciation of Naira skyrocketed the situation with cost of importation became quite expensive. The importers where sending the costs back to the consumers. So, by opening the important and export forex window helped to cushion the effect. Presently, naira is N360/$ and the official rate is N305/$, so it is a great departure from what we saw in February this year.
Secondly, what I have realised, if you look closely at the Government; the $5.5billion loan which everybody has been talking about, this is quite big. One, if you look at the breakdown of the loan, you will realise that $2.5billion will be utilised in funding the 2018 budget. For an ‘infrastructure budget’, this is very good. This is what international investors want to hear; that Nigeria is moving forward to funding infrastructure and diversifying. Through that means, the investors’ sentiments towards Nigeria will be positive. Part of the loan is used to service local debt, which is also good.
A few weeks ago Moody downgraded Nigeria from B1 to B2 and the reason gave was that after the budget, they suggested, that Nigeria wasn’t taking the right steps. So, Nigeria was unsuccessful in shielding investments and the economy from oil shocks. While I understand reason they put that out there, we must know that the journey for Nigeria to diversify is not going to happen overnight. It is something that will take a couple of year. E.g. if you look at GDP growth in the third quarter (Q3) it was 1.4%; a chunk of it was through oil price recovery. What other people are not saying is that another chunk of it came from agriculture. So, Nigeria is taking steps to invest in other sustainable socio-economic growth.
Projections About 2018 Budget
Before making these predictions, we have to look at 2018 ‘Budget of consolidation’. I believe if you look closely at the budget, probably, the Nigerian Government has learnt lessons from previous budgets.
First, they must move and implement that budget by approving it in January 2018. We don’t want to see a situation what happened in 2017 when the budget was passed until middle of the year. If you look at figures, the Government has predicted that oil price will be at $45 at 2.3m/barrels per day at N305/$.
While I agree with the $45 and N305/$, I am sceptical about the 2.3m barrels/day. Keep in mind that OPEC meeting may probably hold early next year; presently, Nigeria is except from crude oil cut. I hope the Government has put into consideration that OPEC has actually requested all members to cut production to 1.8m barrels/day. But Nigeria’s exception was due to conflicts in the Niger-Delta. If this is being fixed, who knows, OPEC may start to ask Nigeria: it’s time for you to cut production back to 1.8m barrels/day. Right now, Nigeria’s production is 2m barrels/day. So, if you move oil production to 1.8million barrels/day from 2.3m, it something to consider.
In furtherance to my comments back in February, as inflation continues to subside, probably when it gets below 14%, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should be offered the power to cut the interest rates to 12%. This is what we have been saying; once they do that they will actually encourage businesses to loan, thereby stimulating economic growth.
When it comes to Naira, the CBN has done a great job, stabilizing the Naira by nafex, improving the liquidity of the currency. We see the naira stabilising in the parallel market taking closer to CBN’s rate of N305/$
Key infrastructural development government should focus on in 2018
Top on the priority list of infrastructure that government should consider is the electricity. Statistics shows that electricity creation in Nigeria is very low. Stable electricity will naturally impact the businesses that will feed-back the economic growth. Roads are also important, especially in transporting goods.
Today, when we were moving around, the roads are very bad with deeps and gullies. Agriculture is another very important part that the Government will look into. Looking closely to the Nigerian population of 190million people; this is over 50% of the whole population of West Africa and we know that Nigeria has high rate of youth unemployment; these are able-bodied young people.
If the government can invest more on innovative farming, it could be the medium to absorb some of the young people. Not only will this support employment, but will enable Nigeria have food security. Yes, the economy has improved compared to February, but being able to grow and export our food is very important too. So, electricity, road and agriculture are three key areas government must not fail to address.
Following that, naturally, are, education, health and manufacturing.
Assessment of Nigeria’s Ability To Leverage Int’l Trade Agreements
To be honest, after the President went to China and the pronouncement was made that Nigeria and China has entered into agreement on the Yuan, I haven’t heard anything about it again. I wouldn’t know if the Government is trying to focus, first, internally; to be sure we are in the right and stable position, before we start dealing with international trade agreements.
Cryptocurreny and the Future of Online Forex
I don’t really blame the people who are still sceptical about bitcoin. Could you believe Bitcoin would ever sell for over $10,000? At the start of the year, it was below $1,000. That is over 900% increase which is why people jumping in; it is an amazing opportunity. But the problem with bitcoin is there is no real fundamental behind it. The main driver behind it is simply investors jumping in. It’s just like the stock market is rising, every body would want to be part of it. It rises on speculation.
Another thing about Bitcoin is, it doesn’t have really intrinsic value, which raises the fear it could be another massive speculated bubble. And we know what happens to bubbles- they burst. This is why the Nigerian Government is very protective, especially for the people of Nigeria jumping at it. Because something that lack intrinsic value, extremely volatile and not even licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) nor covered by insurance, if you jump in and lose, that is the end of it.
Inspite, the scepticism, there are still the positives. We heard about the CME Group; they are planning to launch bitcoin features this month. That is a big move, because they are going to trade bitcoin, and track investors like banks. This will be a game changer in the bitcoin segment; who knows it will hit $25,000 by 2018. It is just that it remains a bubble….
….What are Bitcoin’s impact on forex market?
Honestly, I haven’t seen any bitcoin bullish impact on the forex market. With regards to how it has impacted the financial market in general, there have been some talks it is becoming the new safe haven. Such asset depicts that people are not safe and would like to have a safe net for their assets. It’s similar to what happens with gold.
E-Financial
CBN to Deploy AI in Fight Against Payment Fraud

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has unveiled plans to deploy Artificial Intelligence (AI) to strengthen fraud prevention and enhance the efficiency of the country’s digital payments ecosystem as part of its Nigeria Payments System Vision (PSV) 2028.

Payment fraud is the illegal, unauthorized use or manipulation of payment instruments—like credit cards, wire transfers, or digital wallets—to obtain financial gain.
The initiative, contained in the apex bank’s newly released PSV 2028 document, positions AI as a key technology in Nigeria’s efforts to build a more secure, inclusive and globally competitive payments landscape.
According to the CBN, the adoption of AI forms part of its guiding principle of “Innovation with Purpose,” which seeks to leverage emerging technologies to improve convenience, efficiency and competitiveness across the financial system.
The bank noted that while digital payments have grown significantly in recent years, fraud and cyber threats continue to pose serious challenges to consumer confidence and financial inclusion.
The document highlighted persistent exposure to fraud, cyber-attacks, identity theft, phishing schemes and unauthorised transactions as major risks facing the payments ecosystem. These threats, it said, have undermined trust in digital financial services and constrained efforts to expand access to formal financial systems.
To address these concerns, the CBN said PSV 2028 would place greater emphasis on cybersecurity, fraud management, and the deployment of advanced technologies to detect and prevent financial crimes.
Under the vision’s innovation and emerging technologies pillar, the apex bank disclosed plans to explore AI, blockchain and programmable payment solutions as part of broader efforts to modernise Nigeria’s payments infrastructure.
The CBN also revealed plans to establish stronger fraud monitoring mechanisms, including an industry-wide Security Operations Centre and a national fraud intelligence-sharing platform designed to improve threat detection and response across the financial sector.
According to the document, authorities will facilitate the development of shared infrastructure for fraud detection, risk intelligence and regulatory compliance while introducing industry-wide cyber performance monitoring frameworks.
The bank noted that AI is already transforming payment systems globally and is increasingly being deployed through chatbots, self-service platforms, robotic process automation and other digital tools that enhance customer experience and operational efficiency.
Beyond fraud prevention, the CBN said AI-driven technologies are expected to improve transaction monitoring, strengthen compliance processes and support more efficient service delivery across payment platforms.
The apex bank further stated that Nigeria aims to become a leader in technology-driven regulation by 2028, with ambitions to advance RegTech, SupTech and AI-powered compliance systems while exporting locally developed digital payment frameworks and solutions to international markets.
The broader objective of PSV 2028, according to the CBN, is to build a secure, innovative and resilient payments ecosystem that supports economic growth, deepens financial inclusion, strengthens consumer protection and improves cross-border payment capabilities.
With electronic payment transactions already surpassing N1.2 quadrillion in 2025, the CBN’s decision to integrate AI into its payments strategy underscores a growing commitment to technology-driven fraud management and the long-term development of Nigeria’s digital economy.
E-Financial
Report Faults Banks over N91.1 Trillion Sterilised at CBN

A report by the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), has criticised commercial banks for abandoning their core intermediation role to support economic growth as N91.1 trillion remained sterilised at the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) standing deposit window.

The report lamented the scale of idle liquidity parked at the CBN, noting that this represented not financial strength, but a structural failure of credit allocation, adding that the country’s real sector was being systematically starved of capital.
Separately, Alliance also raised concerns over the sustainability of the country’s fiscal position, warning that despite improvements in government revenue, persistent leakages, rising debt obligations and weak capital spending continued to undermine budgetary effectiveness.
The policy advocacy group said recent fiscal indicators suggested that government revenues are improving and budget deficits are narrowing, but stressed that the gains remained insufficient to offset mounting spending pressures and the growing burden of debt servicing.
Nonethless, it said, “The N91.1 trillion is not a sign of banking strength. It is a symptom of banking failure — a failure of intermediation, a failure of purpose, and a failure of national duty.”
AERE is a policy think tank chaired by Dele Oye, a former national president, Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (NACCIMA).
Oye is the immediate past chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN) and Chairman of the Nigeria-Türkiye Business Council (NTBC).
The report said, “The banks have a choice: self-regulate, reintermediate, and remember their source or face intervention that will be neither gentle nor forgiving.”
It highlighted what it described as a “cosmetic drop” in CBN standing deposit facility placements from N92.32 trillion in April 2026 to N91.1 trillion in May, arguing that the marginal decline obscures a far more troubling structural reality.
It noted that deposits surged to N128.9 trillion in March 2026, before moderating slightly in subsequent months, but still reflected an extraordinary liquidity concentration at the apex bank.
The report estimated that banks cumulatively placed N425.86 trillion with the CBN in the first five months of 2026 alone — a figure described as “an almost 700 per cent year-on-year increase” compared to the same period in 2025.
“This is not banking. This is financial mercantilism — the capture of state-derived liquidity for private gain, with minimal productive intermediation,” the report said.
At the same time, borrowing from the CBN’s Standing Lending Facility (SLF) reportedly collapsed by 94.9 per cent, to N2.2 trillion from N43.42 trillion, reinforcing what it called a system where banks no longer need to lend to survive.
The report maintained that much of what is recorded as banking strength is, in reality, illusory, and identified three categories of “contingent assets” that distort balance sheet realities.
First are performance bonds and guarantees tied to government contracts, which are largely risk-free fiscal obligations repackaged as banking assets.
The other are delayed government payments and forbearance arrangements, which the report described as “deferred public liabilities masquerading as productive credit.”
The third category involved thecollapse of import credit demand, as firms shift away from letters of credit due to stabilising exchange rates.
According to the report, these dynamics had left banks “flush with liquidity but allergic to lending,” with treasury managers rationally opting to park funds at the CBN’s risk-free window.
The report situated the behaviour of banks within the country’s high interest rate environment, noting that the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) stands at 26.5 percent, while the CBN Standing Deposit Facility offers 22.5 percent risk-free returns.
This, it said, creates a structural incentive problem.
The report said, “A bank treasurer faces a simple arithmetic: lend to a manufacturer at 30–35 percent over several years with multiple risks, or park funds at 22.5 percent overnight with zero risk.”
It further cites the asymmetric policy corridor designed by the CBN, which was intended to stabilise liquidity but had instead encouraged what it called “systemic sterilisation.
While acknowledging regulatory intent, the report argued that the policy has inadvertently prioritised financial stability over productive credit creation, stressing that the absence of credit to the real sector was “not a bug in the system. It is becoming a feature”.
Among other things, it referenced constrained lending to manufacturing, agriculture, and SMEs, alongside persistently high interest rates and limited access to long-term credit.
AERE warned that liquidity sterilisation at the CBN was undermining monetary policy effectiveness and inflation control.
The report also referenced recent CBN data indicating that credit to the private sector contracted by N14.02 trillion between February and April 2026, falling to N80.59 trillion.
At the same time, banks recorded record profits, with top-tier institutions reportedly posting a combined N5.54 trillion profit-after-tax in 2024 alone, a 53 per cent increase year-on-year.
It added that the “paradox is stark: banks are thriving while the economy they are meant to finance is starved of credit.”
However, it urged banks to take voluntary reform or risk facing regulatory intervention.
AERE proposed a mandatory sectoral lending quotas for manufacturing, agriculture, and SMEs, and a possible reduction or cap on returns from the CBN standing deposit facility.
It also recommended recalibration of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to penalise non-productive deposits, alongside differential treatment for funds directed into real-sector lending.
It further suggested mandatory disclosure of “contingent assets” to expose the true composition of bank balance sheets, arguing that current reporting standards obscure the extent of non-productive holdings.
A windfall tax on excess earnings from CBN placements was also proposed, with proceeds redirected into a Real Sector Credit Fund among other recommendations.
The report stated, “Nigerian banks have forgotten that their source is the real economy the farmer, the manufacturer, the trader, the entrepreneur. They have become dams, not rivers. They capture N91.1 trillion of national liquidity, earn 22.5 per cent risk-free, and report record profits while the economy they are meant to serve gasps for credit.
“The N91.1 trillion is not a sign of banking strength. It is a symptom of banking failure a failure of intermediation, a failure of purpose, and a failure of national duty.
“The banks have a choice: self-regulate, reintermediate, and remember their source or face intervention that will be neither gentle nor forgiving. The clock is ticking.”
However, speaking in its latest podcast titled, “Nigeria’s Budget: Glass Half Full or Quietly Leaking?”, the group noted that while headline figures portray a stronger fiscal outlook, underlying structural weaknesses continued to threaten the country’s economic transformation agenda.
It stated that a significant portion of government earnings is increasingly being channelled towards servicing debt rather than financing critical development projects capable of stimulating growth and improving productivity.
It warned that debt service commitments had become a dominant feature of the budget, limiting the fiscal space available for investments in infrastructure, education and other productive sectors of the economy.
The group argued that the challenge facing the country extended beyond revenue generation, adding that concerns persist over how public resources are deployed and managed.
It identified leakages, inefficiencies and structural imbalances within the fiscal system as major obstacles preventing government spending from delivering its intended economic impact.
The alliance further observed that capital expenditure remained inadequate to drive meaningful transformation in the real economy, stressing that current spending levels are insufficient to support the scale of infrastructure development and industrial expansion required to accelerate growth.
According to the group,”On paper, Nigeria’s budget looks stronger, revenues are improving, deficits narrowing.
“For look closer and something is leaking. Yes, revenues are growing, but not fast enough to match spending pressures or debt obligations. Government earnings still struggle to carry the weight of the system.
“A growing share of revenue isn’t building roads or funding industries. It’s servicing debt. Debt service dominates, bending our budget to the breaking point.
“The issue isn’t just how much Nigeria earns. It’s how effectively those funds are used. Likages, inefficiencies and structural imbalances continue to drain impact.
“Capital expenditure remains too weak to transform the real economy. No meaningful scale in infrastructure, no serious push for productivity. The path forward is clear.”
It said, “Strengthen revenue systems, cut in efficiencies, prioritize productive investment. This is where evidence-based policy matters. Our budget is leaking funds to outdated programs.
“We must fix the leak and fund the future. Investing in education and infrastructure now is essential. A budget is not just numbers. It’s a reflection of national priority. Fix the leak, fund the future. This is our call to action.”
E-Financial
NRS Accredits Afri Invoice as Access Point Provider to Drive Nigeria’s Mandatory e-invoicing

Ahead of the July deadline, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has accredited Afri Invoice as an official Access Point Provider (APP) in a major move for digital tax compliance across Nigeria.

This sovereign endorsement thrusts the emerging fintech leader into an elite tier of technology firms trusted to handle the nation’s fiscal data infrastructure.
With the July deadline looming, this offers an opportunity for Nigerian Businesses to get adequate onboarding support.
Crucially, this landmark certification comes on the heels of Afri Invoice also recently being licensed as an official Systems Integrator by the NRS—granting the company rare dual-licensed status within the national ecosystem.
BAs Nigeria rapidly transitions to a transparent, real-time fiscal economy, Afri Invoice now serves as a fully unified, secure gateway.
With this double mandate, the platform is uniquely positioned to both seamlessly integrate legacy corporate networks and directly validate, digitally sign, and transmit automated electronic invoices straight into the central NRS Merchant Buyer Solution (MBS) infrastructure.
The NRS launched the MBS platform to combat tax evasion, boost state revenues, and mandate transaction transparency across Africas largest economy.
Operating as a centralised real-time ledger, the platform intercepts and logs B2B and B2G transactions right at the point of sale.
Speaking on this milestone, Mark Odenore, Founder of Afri Invoice, said: “This accreditation represents one of the most significant moments in Afri Invoice’s journey.
“For years, we have believed that compliance should not be a financial burden that only large corporations can afford.
“The NRS has handed us the opportunity to be the bridge connecting Nigeria’s entire business community to this new era. We view e-invoicing as a launchpad for modern corporate efficiency, transparency, and growth.”
Large taxpayers transitioned during the initial rollout phase, and the NRS is actively expanding the mandate to medium and small enterprises. Because direct connection to government servers demands rigid compliance, APPs serve as the vital intermediaries.
To earn this license from NITDA, Afri Invoice underwent extensive evaluation, proving its technical resilience, software architecture quality, OAuth 2.0 security protocols, and strict alignment with the international PEPPOL interoperability framework.
A Sovereign Endorsement for Afri Invoice is not merely a commercial credential; it is a profound operational responsibility. Inclusion in the official NRS Solutions Provider Directory means businesses can confidently deploy Afri Invoice to shield themselves from compliance risks.
For Nigerian enterprises navigating these shifting tax laws, Afri Invoice eliminates technical friction by automating the full invoice lifecycle.
The platform seamlessly handles Native ERP Integration, synchronises data across international standard formats like JSON, manages real-time data submission, digital signing, and certificate lifecycles, and provides clear audit trails and dashboards for CFOs to eliminate manual human error and speed up close cycles.
Crucially, the platform supports all NRS-mandated tax categories, quantity codes, and payment statuses, future-proofing businesses as global cross-border invoice interoperability rolls out.
Ms. Fatimata Niang, the Director of Strategy &Operations, noted: “Our architecture was engineered to the highest global standards for security, interoperability, and scale.
“Every invoice running through our system is cryptographically secured and fully traceable from the millisecond it is generated. As the mandate expands to millions of taxpayers, our infrastructure is primed to handle massive volume without compromising on speed or security.”
Afri Invoice is a premier Nigerian financial technology company building modern digital invoicing and fiscal infrastructure.
Through robust API-driven solutions aligned with NRS, NITDA, and international PEPPOL protocols, the company empowers enterprises and SMEs to achieve effortless compliance with minimal technical overhead.
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