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Nigeria ends 2018 on a cautious note; 2019 elections in focus

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By Lukman Otunuga,

It has been another monumental year for the Nigerian economy which continued to display resilience against domestic and external headwinds.

 

The healthy combination of easing inflationary pressures, foreign exchange stability and rising commodity prices initially stabilized Nigeria’s macro fundamentals. With domestic conditions clearly improving and foreign investor appetite increasing, expectations were elevated over the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cutting interest rates to stimulate further growth. The outlook for Nigeria looked highly encouraging up until mid Q2 2018 when economic growth slowed for the first time since the end of the recession. The deceleration in growth acted as a critical wakeup call to speed up efforts in diversifying away from oil reliance.

 

However, sentiment was dented further by the repeated delay of the 2018 budget which was finally passed in June 2018. Although Nigeria managed to hold its ground during the first half of 2018, it must be kept in mind that the nation found itself vulnerable to external shocks – namely an appreciating Dollar and oil price volatility. An appreciating Dollar, global trade tensions and prospects of higher US interest rates punished many emerging markets in 2018 with Nigeria falling into the category. Although the Naira witnessed stability despite an appreciating Dollar, this came at a heavy price to the CBN in the form of falling external reserves.

 

Global trade tensions presented a significant risk to Nigeria, especially when considering how the United States and China remain its biggest trading partners. With a trade war threatening global economic growth and demand for commodities, this presented challenges to Nigeria which remained heavily depended on earnings from oil exports. While there was scope for the CBN to cut interest rates to boost growth, this window of opportunity was missed when inflationary pressures returned.

 

Focusing on macro fundamentals, the picture looks somewhat encouraging with GDP expected to rise 2% in 2018. Signs of Non-Oil sectors contributing to growth will be a welcome development that highlights how Nigeria remains on a quest to break away from oil reliance. With Nigeria’s economic resilience potentially stimulating investor risk appetite, the Nigerian Stock Exchange has the opportunity to rebound in 2019. Although manufacturing production decreased 1.7% in September, a rebound could be in the cards as increased government spending ahead of the presidential elections boosts economic growth.

 

In regards to CBN policy, falling oil prices are seen weighing on the Naira’s peg against the Dollar on the official exchange. This may complicate the CBN’s effort to defend the Naira on the parallel markets in 2019. While a weaker Dollar could limit capital outflows, falling oil prices are poised to shave government revenues.

 

Focusing on oil prices, the outlook remains tilted to the downside amid oversupply fears and concerns over weaker oil demand. With markets struggling to find signs of the oil market rebalancing following OPEC and Russia’s deal to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day and global growth fears fuelling concerns over falling demand, oil prices remain fundamentally bearish. Severely depressed oil prices have raised concerns over Nigeria’s ability to move forward with the 2019 budget which pegged oil prices at $60 per barrel. With falling oil prices eroding government revenues, Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account (ECA), which has already depleted by roughly 73% in three weeks, is seen falling further.

 

Although the short-term outlook paints a gloomy picture, as we enter the New Year there is still some light at the end of the tunnel. With diversification in motion, government spending expected to increase and infrastructure developments in the pipeline, the longer-term outlook remains bright.


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General News

Catholic Bishops Urge FG to Give Tax Laws Human Face

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Catholic Bishops of the Ibadan Ecclesiastical Province has called on the Federal Government to implement the ongoing tax reforms with equity, openness and empathy, cautioning that policies devoid of human consideration could further compound the suffering of millions of Nigerians.

Catholic Bishops Urge FG to Give Tax Laws Human Face

The appeal was contained in a communiqué released after the bishops’ first provincial meeting for 2026, which took place at the Jubilee Conference Centre in Ibadan, Oyo State.

The document was jointly signed by Most Rev. Gabriel Abegunrin, chairman of the Ibadan Ecclesiastical Province, and Most Rev. John Oyejola, secretary.

Recall that the tax reforms were introduced by the administration of President Bola Tinubu and assented to on June 26, 2025.

They officially came into effect on January 1, 2026, and have continued to attract diverse reactions across the country.

In the communiqué, titled “Sustaining Hope and Strengthening Our Good Efforts,” the bishops acknowledged the government’s desire to overhaul Nigeria’s tax system but expressed concern that its implementation had sparked widespread unease and debate, especially among the poor and vulnerable.

“The reforms should be anchored on fairness, transparency and accountability, urging the government to apply them with compassion.

“The bishops also advised that vulnerable citizens should be given sufficient time to adapt to the new tax regime before strict enforcement measures are introduced.”

The clerics warned that economic policies pursued without sensitivity could widen inequality and heighten social unrest, noting that taxation should not become an added burden for Nigerians already grappling with inflation, unemployment, and rising costs of living.

The bishops encouraged Nigerians to remain hopeful while backing prayers with responsible citizenship, diligence and respect for justice and the rule of law.

“As shepherds of God’s people, we urge Nigerians to reject cynicism and despair. Prayer must be accompanied by good works. This is the only country we have,” the communiqué concluded.


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Taraba Adopts Electronic Case Management System

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Taraba State in Nigeria has developed an electronic platform for filing criminal cases in the state’s High Courts, marking the implementation of the new National Case Management System.

The launch, announced on Monday, marks a move from manual to electronic filing of criminal cases and is part of attempts to reform court processes and expand access to justice using technology.

Governor Agbu Kefas stated that the action underlines the government’s dedication to institutional strengthening, the rule of law, and effective governance.

Kefas pledged continued government support for the judiciary, noting that technology is essential for delivering swift, fair and transparent justice.

He also stated that the state would give the resources and infrastructure required to maintain the ongoing judicial reforms.

Justice Joel Agya, Chief Judge of Taraba State, stated that the e-filing facility will enable the electronic filing of originating processes and subsequent applications.

He explained that the system would enhance case tracking from filing to final determination while reducing delays caused by manual registry procedures.

Justice Agya went on to say that the platform would improve the security and accessibility of court records, as well as help judges manage dockets and time better.

He emphasised that the platform is intended to supplement rather than replace judicial decision-making, ensuring that administrative procedures do not impede the delivery of speedy justice.

The development is consistent with a broader national push to digitalise judicial processes across Nigerian courts, which has already been implemented in several regions.


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Cybersecurity Firm Detects a Wave of Crypto Phishing Following BlockFi Bankruptcy

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Kaspersky has detected a wave of phishing attacks preying on former customers of the bankrupt crypto lending platform BlockFi.

These scams leverage the ongoing distribution of customer assets following BlockFi’s 2022 bankruptcy, tricking victims into surrendering cryptocurrency wallet seed phrases, potentially leading to financial losses.

BlockFi, once a prominent provider of high-yield interest accounts and crypto-backed loans, announced bankruptcy in November 2022. The company began disbursing repayments to affected clients in 2024 as part of its restructuring plan.

Kaspersky has detected fraudulent emails mimicking BlockFi’s official branding, which falsely invite recipients to “claim the payment” they are “entitled to.” After clicking on the link, users land on a phishing page and are prompted to “connect their wallet”.

The attackers suggest that users import their existing wallet by typing in the secret phrase – this grants attackers direct access to the funds in the victim’s wallet.

“Phishing attacks like this are widespread, capitalising on real-world events to build trust and urgency. Victims who fall for these scams risk exposing their crypto wallets to theft. It’s critical for individuals to verify any communications directly through official channels and to check the address from where the email originates for legitimacy,” comments Roman Dedenok, anti-spam expert at Kaspersky.

The phishing emails feature convincing logos, colour schemes, and language, making them difficult to spot at first glance. Kaspersky recommends the following steps to avoid falling victim to this or similar scams:

  • Do not click on links or respond to unsolicited emails.
  • Protect Sensitive Information: Never share banking credentials, wallet seed phrases, or other private keys in response to an email or online form.
  • Use Security Tools: Enable two-factor authentication (2FA) on all financial accounts, employ reputable security software like Kaspersky Premium, and consider using a password manager to safeguard credentials.

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