E-Financial
Will the Central Bank of Nigeria Pull the Rate Cut Trigger?

By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
As the coronavirus outbreak creates shockwaves across the globe, central banks and governments are enforcing emergency measures to defend their respective economies.
It was only last week that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) technically devalued the Naira at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) windows of the nation’s foreign exchange markets. While this move may attract foreign exchange investors due to the convergence of the multiple exchange rates, it may end up stoking inflationary pressures and complicating the implementation of the 2020 budget which predicted N305 per dollar. The CBN also announced a reduction of interest rates in all its intervention facilities from nine per cent to five per cent per annum for one year while pledging to inject over N1 trillion across critical sectors of the economy. With the CBN going all in out in shielding the Nigerian economy from the coronavirus outbreak, speculation is rising over the bank cutting benchmark interest rates from 13.5% in March.
Risk appetite returns as Fed goes limitless…but for how long?
As monetary policy bazookas prove ineffective against the coronavirus-induced market chaos, central banks are taking unprecedented steps in defending their respective economies against the pandemic.
Over the last 24 hours, the Federal Reserve dropped an atomic monetary bomb by announcing an open ended unlimited quantitative easing program in an effort to promote stability across financial markets. Although the initial reaction was somewhat mixed with shares on Wall Street closing in the red overnight, investors seem to be taking heart from the Fed’s limitless pledge, as Asian stocks roar back to life this morning and US futures jump. However, this positive market mood is unlikely to last given how the Senate once again failed to move ahead with a $2 trillion US coronavirus stimulus package at the start of the week.
If the global economy is a tin bucket filled with water, the coronavirus outbreak has drilled multiple holes into it and monetary policy bazookas are unable to stop the water from leaking away. While fiscal policies could plug some of the holes, the solution may have to be a new bucket which in this instance is a cure to the coronavirus.
More Pound pain as UK enters lockdown?
Sterling could be set for more weakness after Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a three-week lockdown to reduce the spread of the coronavirus. With “non-essential” shops and services being ordered to shut as part of the strict new measures, consumption could be hit, stimulating fears over the United Kingdom entering a recession. The latest flash manufacturing and services PMI data for March will be released later this morning. The Pound may end up offering a muted response to the data as investors focus on the three-week national lockdown and what it means for the economy.
Focusing on the technical outlook, a picture is worth a thousand words and this remains true for GBPUSD which is trading at levels not seen since 1985. Consolidation at the lows points to further downside with the first key level of interest at 1.1400. A breakdown below this level could open the flood gates towards 1.1300 and lower.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Everyone has wanted a shiny piece of Gold over the last 24 hours, after the Fed took unprecedented measures to defend the US economy from the coronavirus outbreak.
The precious metal has appreciated over 2.7% since the start of the week and has the potential to extend gains on Dollar weakness. A sense of unease over the coronavirus developments and fears around a global recession should support appetite for gold moving forward. Looking at the technical picture, the precious metal has extended gains this morning with prices trading around $1575 as of writing. An intraday breakout above $1580 could swing open the doors towards $1600.
E-Financial
EFCC Warns Banks against Loans without Credible Collateral

Ola Olukoyede, executive chairman, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), has cautioned Nigerian banks against granting loans without credible collateral, warning that such practices often lead to insider abuse and non-performing loans.

Olukoyede issued the warning recently when he received Mufutau Olawale Abiola, chief audit executive, First Bank Plc, who led a delegation on a courtesy visit to the Lagos Zonal Directorate 2 of the Commission in Ikoyi.
Speaking through Bawa Usman Kaltungo, acting zonal director, Lagos Zonal Directorate 2, Ikoyi, Olukoyede expressed grave concerns over how banks in the country grant loans, noting that loans backed only by personal guarantees, including those of top executives, are inadequate and put depositors’ funds at risk.
He said: “We have issues with banks’ mode of giving loans. The process often shows insider abuse.”
While emphasizing that banks should desist from issuing loans without visible or credible collateral, he added that “Top-down loans are not secured. You cannot give a loan based solely on the personal guarantee of the Chief Executive.
This is not security. Banks must not issue loans without verifiable collateral. If there is proper collateral for loans obtained by bank customers, this will reduce the rate of non-performing loans.”
He further warned that a bank is only a custodian, and that giving loans without adequate collateral “amounts to tampering with depositors’ funds.”
He also urged banks to implement measures, including thorough due diligence on its customers, to prevent loan defaults.
According to him, “Even in situations where you outsource due diligence, there must be a clause of liability,” he said.
Reaffirming the Commission’s commitment to continued cooperation with the bank in tackling financial crimes, he urged the bank to release its staff promptly when invited during investigations of alleged financial crimes.
“When we invite your staff, especially where insider connivance is suspected, you must release them so we can jointly fight economic and financial crimes. We must work together to stay ahead of criminals. Let me add that where money is, that is where people’s hearts are. Most of the time, we escalate issues to foreign security agencies as may be necessary,” he added.
Earlier, Abiola expressed gratitude to the EFCC leadership for the engagement, noting that the visit was intended to strengthen the existing collaboration between the bank and the Commission.
While urging the EFCC to expedite investigations into cases involving its staff and others, Abiola also disclosed that a designated team in his bank handles requests from the EFCC.
E-Financial
Digital “Pickpockets” Compromise Over a Million Banking Accounts – Kaspersky

More than one million online banking accounts were compromised by infostealers last year, as financial cyberthreats shifted toward credential theft and data reuse.

Pic credit…cybelangel.com
Attackers are moving away from traditional PC banking malware and increasingly relying on social engineering and dark web marketplaces, while mobile financial malware continues to grow.
Detailed information on current financial cyberthreat trends is available in Kaspersky’s new report.
These digital “pickpockets” often exfiltrate data and remove themselves within seconds, making them difficult to detect.
They are a primary source of initial access for ransomware and identity theft
Traditional financial phishing has not gone away. Pages that mimicked e-shops dominated the financial phishing landscape (48.5% in 2025, up 10.3% from 2024), followed by banks (26.1% in 2025, down by 16.5% from 2024) and payment systems (25.5% in 2025, up by 6.2% from 2024). The decline in bank phishing may suggest that these services are becoming increasingly difficult to successfully impersonate, and fraudsters are turning to easier ways to access users’ finances.
Attackers are adapting campaigns to regional digital habits. In the Middle East, financial phishing is overwhelmingly concentrated on e-commerce (85.8%), indicating a heavy reliance on online retail lures, whereas in Africa bank-related phishing leads (53.75%), which may indicate that user account security there is still insufficient. Latin America shows a more balanced distribution but with a higher share of e-commerce and bank targeting, while APAC and Europe display a more even spread across all three categories, pointing to diversified attack strategies.
In 2025, the decline in users affected by financial PC malware continued as users increasingly rely on mobile devices to manage their finances. Contrary to PC banking malware, mobile banker attacks grew by 1.5 times in 2025 compared to the previous year.
Complementing traditional financial malware, infostealers played a significant role in enabling financial crime both on PCs and mobile devices by harvesting login credentials, cookies, bank card numbers, crypto wallet seed phrases, and autofill data from browsers and applications, which attackers then used for account takeovers or direct banking fraud. Kaspersky data pointed to a surge in infostealer detections (up by 59% globally, 53% in Africa and 26% in the Middle East, on PCs from 2024 to 2025), fueling credential-based attacks.
According to Kaspersky Digital Footprint Intelligence (DFI), in 2025 over one million online banking accounts served by the world’s 100 largest banks fell victim to infostealers: credentials for these accounts were being freely shared on the dark web. The countries with the highest median number of compromised accounts per bank were India, Spain, and Brazil.
74% of payment cards that were compromised by infostealer malware, published on dark web resources and identified by Kaspersky DFI team in 2025, remained valid as of March 2026. This means that attackers could still use cards that had been stolen months or even years prior.
“The dark web has become a central hub for financial cybercrime. Stolen credentials and bank cards that have been harvested by infostealers are aggregated, repackaged, and sold there, while phishing kits targeted at users of financial products are offered as ready-to-use services.
This creates a self-sustaining ecosystem where data theft and fraud operations reinforce each other, making attacks scalable and easy to carry out by fraudsters with minimal experience. Breaking this cycle requires proactive threat intelligence on the part of organisations, and increased awareness and scrutiny from individual users,” comments Polina Tretyak, Kaspersky Digital Footprint Intelligence analyst.
E-Financial
Week Ahead: Inflation Shock, Iran War Escalation & $100 Oil

By Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research, FXTM.
The Naira is the second best performing African currency against the dollar year-to-date, only surpassed by the Zambian Kwacha.

Lukman Otunuga
Its stability through conflict-induced volatility is commendable, but such has come at a heavy cost. Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves have fallen for 16 consecutive days through April 8 – falling to its lowest since mid-Feb to $48.94 billion. The CBN followed its pledge to defend in the local currency in March as deepening geopolitical risk punished emerging market assets.
On the data front, it’s a big week for Nigeria due to the incoming inflation report for March.
Nigeria’s CPI is expected to have eased to 13.4% yoy from the 15.1% in February. Persistent signs of easing inflationary pressures may encourage the CBN to cut rates in an environment where other central banks are considering hiking to tame conflict-induced inflation.
Over the weekend, US-Iran peace talks concluded without a resolution.
Despite a marathon 21 hours of negotiations, both sides were unable to agree on key issues, including Iran’s nuclear program and its control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Hours after Trump threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz from Monday 10 am ET.
This fresh uncertainty was reflected across markets this morning, with risk aversion affecting equities, while oil benchmarks surged amid rising geopolitical risk premiums.
Given how Iran has rejected US restrictions on shipping and threatened Gulf ports, sentiment remains fragile and highly sensitive with markets on high alert.
It’s worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February, raising the risk of inflation and growth shocks that threaten the global economy.
In the commodity space, oil benchmarks surged as the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rallied as much as 9% to roughly 104$ a barrel as supply shock fears returned with a vengeance. Deepening conflict may keep oil prices elevated, with triple digits potentially becoming a new normal amid extreme supply tightness.
Gold initially declined on rising inflation concerns as oil prices surged. Despite prices jumping back above $4700 bears remain in control amid rising inflationary risks. Given how expectations have basically diminished over lower rates in 2026, gold is likely to remain on the backfoot with a stronger dollar keep bears in the game. Key levels of interest can be found $4825, $4700 and $4600.
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