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Will the Central Bank of Nigeria Pull the Rate Cut Trigger?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

As the coronavirus outbreak creates shockwaves across the globe, central banks and governments are enforcing emergency measures to defend their respective economies.

It was only last week that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) technically devalued the Naira at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) windows of the nation’s foreign exchange markets. While this move may attract foreign exchange investors due to the convergence of the multiple exchange rates, it may end up stoking inflationary pressures and complicating the implementation of the 2020 budget which predicted N305 per dollar. The CBN also announced a reduction of interest rates in all its intervention facilities from nine per cent to five per cent per annum for one year while pledging to inject over N1 trillion across critical sectors of the economy. With the CBN going all in out in shielding the Nigerian economy from the coronavirus outbreak, speculation is rising over the bank cutting benchmark interest rates from 13.5% in March.

 

Risk appetite returns as Fed goes limitless…but for how long?

As monetary policy bazookas prove ineffective against the coronavirus-induced market chaos, central banks are taking unprecedented steps in defending their respective economies against the pandemic.

Over the last 24 hours, the Federal Reserve dropped an atomic monetary bomb by announcing an open ended unlimited quantitative easing program in an effort to promote stability across financial markets.  Although the initial reaction was somewhat mixed with shares on Wall Street closing in the red overnight, investors seem to be taking heart from the Fed’s limitless pledge, as Asian stocks roar back to life this morning and US futures jump. However, this positive market mood is unlikely to last given how the Senate once again failed to move ahead with a $2 trillion US coronavirus stimulus package at the start of the week.

If the global economy is a tin bucket filled with water, the coronavirus outbreak has drilled multiple holes into it and monetary policy bazookas are unable to stop the water from leaking away. While fiscal policies could plug some of the holes, the solution may have to be a new bucket which in this instance is a cure to the coronavirus.

 

More Pound pain as UK enters lockdown?

Sterling could be set for more weakness after Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a three-week lockdown to reduce the spread of the coronavirus. With “non-essential” shops and services being ordered to shut as part of the strict new measures, consumption could be hit, stimulating fears over the United Kingdom entering a recession. The latest flash manufacturing and services PMI data for March will be released later this morning. The Pound may end up offering a muted response to the data as investors focus on the three-week national lockdown and what it means for the economy.

Focusing on the technical outlook, a picture is worth a thousand words and this remains true for GBPUSD which is trading at levels not seen since 1985. Consolidation at the lows points to further downside with the first key level of interest at 1.1400. A breakdown below this level could open the flood gates towards 1.1300 and lower.

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Commodity spotlight – Gold

Everyone has wanted a shiny piece of Gold over the last 24 hours, after the Fed took unprecedented measures to defend the US economy from the coronavirus outbreak.

The precious metal has appreciated over 2.7% since the start of the week and has the potential to extend gains on Dollar weakness. A sense of unease over the coronavirus developments and fears around a global recession should support appetite for gold moving forward. Looking at the technical picture, the precious metal has extended gains this morning with prices trading around $1575 as of writing. An intraday breakout above $1580 could swing open the doors towards $1600.

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E-Financial

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

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Stakeholders in the banking and financial ecosystem, yesterday, decried the surge in cyber fraud as Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) lost N10 billion in the second quarter of 2023, representing almost 300 per cent year-on-year compared to the previous year.

Banks Lose N10Bn to Cyber Fraud in 2023’

At a Mastercard forum convened to tackle fraud and cybersecurity threats in the financial sector, Kari Tukur, vice president, Customer Solutions Centre, East and West Africa at Mastercard, said despite the massive awareness and innovations aimed at combating cybersecurity, the amount lost last year by DBMs was “staggering”.

She said, “With Nigeria’s rapidly growing economic expansion, we are starting to see an increase in the adoption of digital financial services, and the financial landscape is also evolving at an astronomical speed.

“What was staggering for me was in spite of the huge investment around innovation, funding in the cyber space, DBMs lost almost N10bn in Q2 last year, and that was almost 300 per cent growth year-on-year when compared to the previous year.”

She noted that there was the need for collaboration among stakeholders “to combat this rising sophistication of cyber security threat.”

Tukur further stated that Mastercard was deeply committed to cyber security and fraud prevention within the payment industry, disclosing that the company invested $250m “to assist small businesses in addressing their cyber security needs.”

She disclosed that Mastercard payment portals incorporated multiple layers of security such as tokenisation technology, encryption and biometrical to stay ahead of cyber attackers.

She added that, “The sector continues to struggle with the aforementioned challenges, necessitating vigilance, proactive action and comprehensive security strategy, and Mastercard remains committed to providing safe, secure and seamless payment services and experiences for our partners and customers in Nigeria and beyond.”

Celestina Appeal, chairman, Committee of e-Business Industry Heads (CeBIH), stated that the total loss to the banking industry in the last couple of years totalled hundreds of billions of naira while Nigeria’s Consumer Awareness and Financial Enlightenment Initiative had projected a $6trn loss by 2030 to cybercrime within and outside Nigeria.

Represented by Mr Temitope Onibaniyi, secretary of the committee, she stated that the committee was ever-willing to collaborate with industry stakeholders to fight against the perpetrators who “constantly rob banks and other stakeholders in the payments industry of their hard-earned money.”

She said the need for collaboration could not be overemphasised as no individual organisation was immune to cyber security attacks.

 

 


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E-Financial

Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

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President Bola Tinubu has approved the appointment of some Nigerian professionals to the Board of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Tinubu Rejigs SEC Board, Makes New Appointments

This is contained in a statement issued by Ajuri Ngelale, special adviser to the President on Media and Publicity.

Tinubu appointed Mr. Mairiga Aliyu Katuka  as the Chairman of the board of SEC, while Mr. Emomotimi Agama has been appointed as the  Director-General of the board.

The president also appointed Frana Chukwuogor  as Executive Commissioner (Legal and Enforcement) of the board.

Tinubu further appointed Mr. Bola Ajomale as the Executive Commissioner (Operations) of the board, while Mrs. Samiya Hassan Usman is the Executive Commissioner (Corporate Services) of the board.

Also appointed into the board are Mr. Lekan Belo as Non-Executive Commissioner and Mr. Kasimu Garba Kurfi as Non-Executive Commissioner.

According to Ngelale, the president anticipated that “all members of the Board of this critical commission will bring to bear their wealth of experience and competence in advancing the commission’s core mandate of developing and regulating a capital market that is dynamic, fair, transparent, and efficient, to bolster investor confidence and contribute immeasurably to the nation’s economic development.”


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E-Financial

Ecobank Repays $500m Eurobond

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Ecobank has announced the successful repayment of its $500 million five-year Eurobond issued in 2019. According to a statement filed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), the Eurobond garnered considerable interest from a diverse range of global investors, including long-term development partners such as FMO and Proparco, who served as anchor investors.

Commenting on this achievement, Ecobank Group Financial Officer, Ayo Adepoju, said: “The bond was listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange with a coupon rate of 9.5 per cent. The principal and interest repayment, totalling $524 million, was distributed to bondholders through the transaction agent on the bond maturity date of April 18, 2024.

“This inaugural bond we are retiring today was critical in introducing our firm to a wider array of global investors and contributed to the increased visibility of our brand in the capital markets.”

Against the backdrop of challenges posed by the global operating environment, including disruptions in the world supply chain and financial markets, Adepoju highlighted the Group’s resilience. He cited strong liquidity, a robust balance sheet, and a solid leadership team as key factors enabling Ecobank’s success.

He added that the successful repayment of the Eurobond underscores Ecobank’s commitment to financial stability and investor confidence, positioning the firm for continued growth and success in the global market.

 


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