E-Financial
What Does Sub-Zero Oil Mean for Nigeria’s Economic Outlook?
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
April 20, 2020 will go down in the history books as the day when WTI crude futures expiring in May plunged more than 300 percent, falling as low as minus $40.32 per barrel amid COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.
Utter chaos ensued after the US benchmark prices for crude Oil went sub-zero for the first time ever, driven down by the producer’s desperate attempt to pay buyers to take the commodity off their hands. This was due to fears that storage capacity could run out in May.
As Oil sank, tanker stocks soared, reflecting an intense increase in demand for crude storage space. It says a lot about the unprecedented nature of the coronavirus pandemic when we see that the fastest-growing demand trend in the Oil markets is for storage space.
Prices rose spasmodically after Iran launched its first military satellite, earning President Donald Trump’s ire. But this has not changed the fundamental themes weighing on Oil.
For Nigeria, these fundamental themes of collapsing demand and oversupply are big headwinds even if the country’s Oil is benchmarked against Brent Crude. The Nigerian state depends on Oil for 60 percent of its revenues and 90 percent of its foreign exchange. But with prices for several Oil benchmarks falling below zero, Nigeria is generating massive losses for every barrel it produces, meaning the economic outlook is growing more precarious.
It’s likely that foreign exchange reserves will stay on the firing line while the Naira remains exposed to downside shocks. A further weight on the currency and government revenues is that Nigeria spent four times as much moneysubsidising fuel versus building schools, health centres and science labs in 2019. Another inefficiency which may come back to haunt is the fact that Nigeria produces crude Oil which is sold to the US, China and Europe only to re-import natural gas at higher prices.
With the cost of producing Oil at around $15-$17 per barrel, the current volatility and weakness in Oil prices may fuel fears of a sovereign debt crisis. Nigeria’s total debt stands at around $84 billion with up to 80% of its bilateral debt owed to China. Already, Fitch Ratings has cut Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to B from B+.
Weakening outlook notwithstanding, Nigeria is making the same choice as most other world governments – to stop the spread of coronavirus. The plan is to raise as much as $6.9 billion from multilateral lenders to help fund efforts to stop the disease in its tracks.
This is the right choice, and could give the economy a better chance to recover more quickly after the pandemic ends.
Meanwhile, the short-term outlook for Oil prices remains grim due to demand destruction and slowing global growth after China experienced an economic contraction in Q1 on top of a lack of storage space.
Given that Oil sector weakness is set to remain a dominant theme in the short-to-near term, Nigeria must act fast and break away from the chains of Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth. Diversification is the lifesaving elixir to Nigeria’s ailments but the benefits will not happen overnight.
Digitalisation has become a hot trend in many countries as populations and governments seek to reduce human contact but increase human connection. In the same vein, the government’s ‘Change’ agenda has never been more important than it is now. Technology and innovation may be the focus of increased investment as other economic sectors come to a standstill under lockdowns.
To sum up the new reality, Nigeria has displayed resilience to external and domestic risks in the recent past but the coronavirus pandemic and collapsing Oil prices could present one of the biggest economic tests in its history. Will Nigeria be able to weather the storm, evolve and rise from the ashes like a phoenix or will Africa’s largest economy face the same fate as Venezuela and Zimbabwe?
My sincere hope is that the economy will adapt quickly, resulting in a faster-than-expected comeback.
Federal Capital Territory High Court has ordered Stanbic IBTC Bank Limited to pay N15 million in damages to two former customers after finding that the bank unlawfully retained and processed their personal information after they had terminated their banking relationship.
In a judgment delivered on July 29, Justice Kayode Agunloye also directed the bank to erase all personal data belonging to the claimants that it is not legally required to retain and restrained it from further processing or using such information without lawful authority or the customers’ consent.
The court held that the bank breached the Nigeria Data Protection Act (NDPA) 2023, the claimants’ constitutional right to privacy under Section 37 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), and provisions of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act (FCCPA).
The suit, marked CV/2190/25, was filed by David Ogundipe and Salami Tolulope Ibrahim, who argued that Stanbic IBTC continued to process their personal data for marketing purposes even after they had closed their corporate account with the bank.
According to the claimants, the account was shut following unresolved issues with the bank.
Despite the closure, they alleged that Stanbic IBTC continued sending promotional emails and text messages to their personal and corporate email addresses as well as their telephone numbers.
The customers said their solicitors later wrote to the bank demanding that all marketing communications cease and that their personal data should no longer be processed for promotional purposes.
Although the bank reportedly acknowledged the request and assured them that the messages would stop, the unsolicited communications allegedly continued, prompting them to seek judicial intervention.
In his ruling, Justice Agunloye held that once the banking relationship had ended and the customers had withdrawn their consent, the bank no longer had any lawful basis to process their personal data for marketing activities.
The judge ruled that the continued use of the claimants’ information amounted to an infringement of their constitutional right to privacy and constituted an unfair trade practice under the FCCPA.
The court consequently ordered Stanbic IBTC to delete all personal information relating to the claimants that it is not legally required to retain and to cease every form of data processing except where permitted by law or regulatory obligations.
Justice Agunloye also granted a perpetual injunction restraining the bank, its officers and agents from retaining, processing, transmitting or using the claimants’ personal data for marketing, promotional or any other unauthorised purpose.
While the claimants sought N250 million as damages, the court awarded N15 million as general damages, describing the amount as adequate compensation for the persistent unsolicited communications, the bank’s failure to honour requests for data erasure and the violation of the customers’ privacy rights.
The bank was further ordered to pay N500,000 as the cost of the suit, while the claim for N7 million as litigation expenses was dismissed for lack of sufficient proof.
Justice Agunloye directed that all monetary awards would attract 10 per cent post-judgment interest annually until fully settled.
However, the court declined to order the complete deletion of every record relating to the claimants, holding that banks remain under statutory obligations to retain certain customer records in compliance with financial regulations and anti-money laundering laws.
Reacting to the verdict, counsel to the claimants, O.E. Oluwadamisi of Earnest Attorneys LP, described the decision as a landmark judgment for data protection in Nigeria.
He said the ruling reinforces the mandatory nature of compliance with the Nigeria Data Protection Act and makes it clear that organisations cannot continue processing customers’ personal information after consent has been withdrawn unless authorised by law.
One of the successful claimants, David Ogundipe, welcomed the judgment, saying it represented a victory not only for the litigants but also for millions of Nigerians whose personal information is held by corporate organisations.
He expressed hope that the ruling would encourage institutions across the country to strengthen compliance with data protection laws and place greater respect on customers’ privacy rights.
The number of Bank Verification Numbers (BVNs) on the Nigerian banking industry’s fraud watchlist reached 13,117, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
This is coming as banks strengthen efforts to detect and prevent financial crimes.
According to the CBN’s 2025 Annual Report and Statement of Accounts, the number of BVNs on the banking industry’s fraud watchlist increased from 9,476 in 2024 to 13,117 in 2025. This represents a 38.4 per cent increase.
The apex bank explained that commercial banks, including Access Bank, Zenith Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA), and other financial institutions, added 3,641 new BVNs to the watchlist during the year.
The report said the increase reflects stronger fraud monitoring, improved compliance, better risk management, and enhanced systems for detecting suspicious transactions.
It added that the higher number does not necessarily mean fraud has increased, but shows banks are becoming more active in identifying and blocking suspicious activities.
The report also revealed that consumer lending declined for the first time since 2019.
Outstanding consumer credit dropped by 19.89 per cent, falling from N4.72 trillion in 2024 to N3.78 trillion in 2025.
The CBN attributed the decline to high interest rates, which made borrowing more expensive for many Nigerians.
Personal loans recorded the biggest drop, falling to N1.85 trillion.
However, retail loans rose by 63.77 per cent to N1.94 trillion, making them the largest category of consumer credit for the first time in several years.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has ordered banks to refund a total N19.12 billion to customers for illegal deductions and poor complaint handling.
This is coming as bank customers lodged 23,129 complaints against financial institutions in 2025, representing 11 per cent increase over the previous year.
The apex bank also imposed N1.69 billion in penalties on financial institutions for regulatory breaches, poor complaint handling and failure to comply with its directives, according to its 2025 Annual Report.
The CBN attributed the increase in complaints to growing public confidence in its consumer protection framework rather than a deterioration in banking services.
The report stated: “The Bank received a total of 23,129 complaints from consumers of financial services in 2025, a rise of 10.53 per cent above the 20,925 in 2024. The trend reflected increased awareness and improved confidence in the Bank’s consumer complaint resolution process.”
The apex bank added: “A total of 18,824 complaints were resolved, indicating a 9.36 per cent increase over the 17,213 complaints resolved in 2024.”
On the value of disputed transactions, the CBN said: “Total claims in local currency increased to N40.61 billion from N17.13 billion in 2024. Foreign currency claims also rose, reaching $344.2 million compared with $1.06 million in the preceding year.”
According to the report, “Based on the resolved complaints, the sums of N19.12 billion and $329.3 million were refunded in 2025, compared with N9.66 billion and $0.67 million in 2024.”
The CBN said it strengthened enforcement against erring financial institutions during the year.
It stated: “During the review period, the Bank imposed 11 penalties on financial institutions totalling N1.26 billion for infractions ranging from regulatory breaches and failure to respond to regulatory queries.”
The report further disclosed: “In addition, the Bank imposed 21 penalties on financial institutions to the tune of N430 million for infractions ranging from delays in resolving customer complaints to failure to comply with the Bank’s directives.”
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