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What Does Sub-Zero Oil Mean for Nigeria’s Economic Outlook?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

 

April 20, 2020 will go down in the history books as the day when WTI crude futures expiring in May plunged more than 300 percent, falling as low as minus $40.32 per barrel amid COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.

Utter chaos ensued after the US benchmark prices for crude Oil went sub-zero for the first time ever, driven down by the producer’s desperate attempt to pay buyers to take the commodity off their hands. This was due to fears that storage capacity could run out in May.

As Oil sank, tanker stocks soared, reflecting an intense increase in demand for crude storage space. It says a lot about the unprecedented nature of the coronavirus pandemic when we see that the fastest-growing demand trend in the Oil markets is for storage space.

Prices rose spasmodically after Iran launched its first military satellite, earning President Donald Trump’s ire. But this has not changed the fundamental themes weighing on Oil.

For Nigeria, these fundamental themes of collapsing demand and oversupply are big headwinds even if the country’s Oil is benchmarked against Brent Crude. The Nigerian state depends on Oil for 60 percent of its revenues and 90 percent of its foreign exchange. But with prices for several Oil benchmarks falling below zero, Nigeria is generating massive losses for every barrel it produces, meaning the economic outlook is growing more precarious.

It’s likely that foreign exchange reserves will stay on the firing line while the Naira remains exposed to downside shocks. A further weight on the currency and government revenues is that Nigeria spent four times as much moneysubsidising fuel versus building schools, health centres and science labs in 2019. Another inefficiency which may come back to haunt is the fact that Nigeria produces crude Oil which is sold to the US, China and Europe only to re-import natural gas at higher prices.

With the cost of producing Oil at around $15-$17 per barrel, the current volatility and weakness in Oil prices may fuel fears of a sovereign debt crisis. Nigeria’s total debt stands at around $84 billion with up to 80% of its bilateral debt owed to China. Already, Fitch Ratings has cut Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to B from B+.

Weakening outlook notwithstanding, Nigeria is making the same choice as most other world governments – to stop the spread of coronavirus. The plan is to raise as much as $6.9 billion from multilateral lenders to help fund efforts to stop the disease in its tracks.

This is the right choice, and could give the economy a better chance to recover more quickly after the pandemic ends.

Meanwhile, the short-term outlook for Oil prices remains grim due to demand destruction and slowing global growth after China experienced an economic contraction in Q1 on top of a lack of storage space.

Given that Oil sector weakness is set to remain a dominant theme in the short-to-near term, Nigeria must act fast and break away from the chains of Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth. Diversification is the lifesaving elixir to Nigeria’s ailments but the benefits will not happen overnight.

Digitalisation has become a hot trend in many countries as populations and governments seek to reduce human contact but increase human connection. In the same vein, the government’s ‘Change’ agenda has never been more important than it is now. Technology and innovation may be the focus of increased investment as other economic sectors come to a standstill under lockdowns.

To sum up the new reality, Nigeria has displayed resilience to external and domestic risks in the recent past but the coronavirus pandemic and collapsing Oil prices could present one of the biggest economic tests in its history. Will Nigeria be able to weather the storm, evolve and rise from the ashes like a phoenix or will Africa’s largest economy face the same fate as Venezuela and Zimbabwe?

My sincere hope is that the economy will adapt quickly, resulting in a faster-than-expected comeback. 

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

CBN Launches New Website Today

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will today launch its newly redesigned website, www.cbn.gov.ng.

CBN Launches New Website Today

Mrs Hakama Sidi Ali, acting director, Corporate Communications, CBN, , made this known in a statement on Sunday in Lagos.

“We are pleased to announce the launch of our newly redesigned website (www.cbn.gov.ng), which will be operational on Monday, December 2, 2024.

“The redesigned website introduces a variety of new content, which encompasses a broader spectrum of information regarding the bank’s mandate.

“Additionally, the website is responsive to mobile devices, facilitating navigation across various web browsers and devices.

“The bank is grateful for the feedback provided by the public, which served as a valuable guide for our redesign endeavours,” she said.

Sidi Ali said the CBN was committed to developing and enhancing the website to facilitate communication.

“Please follow our different social media channels linked on the website’s home page for more updates,” she said.

 

 

 


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CBN to Penalize Banks for Failing to Address ATM Cash Shortages

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has warned that it will impose severe penalties on banks failing to address the ongoing cash scarcity at automated teller machines (ATMs).

Olayemi Cardoso, the CBN governor, issued the warning during the annual Bankers’ Dinner hosted by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) on Friday.

The cash crunch has drawn public attention, with some Nigerians taking to X on November 13 to express frustrations over empty ATMs and reliance on point-of-sale (POS) operators. Two days later, the CBN directed banks to prioritise ATM cash disbursements and cautioned that penalties would be imposed on those enabling currency hawking.

“We also recognise the ongoing challenges with cash availability at ATMs, which disproportionately affect ordinary Nigerians,” Cardoso said. “To address this, we are conducting spot checks across deposit money banks, and we will impose penalties on underperforming institutions.”

The CBN governor announced measures to empower customers, starting December 1, 2024. “Customers are encouraged to report any difficulties with withdrawing cash from bank branches or ATMs directly to the CBN through designated phone numbers and email addresses for their respective states.

Guidelines will be distributed widely to raise public awareness. We will also urge full regulatory compliance by all stakeholders, including mobile money operators and POS agents, to promote digital transaction channels and improve service delivery.”

Cardoso reiterated that financial institutions engaging in malpractices or sabotage would face severe consequences.

“The CBN will continue to maintain a robust cash offering to meet the country’s needs, particularly during high-demand periods such as the festive season and year-end.”

On foreign exchange (FX) matters, Cardoso highlighted Nigeria’s missed opportunity for N6.2 trillion in potential revenue due to a less flexible FX regime.

“These funds could have significantly contributed to critical investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure development,” he said.

The governor added that the apex bank is committed to rebuilding Nigeria’s economic resilience through targeted reforms. These include prioritising domestic refining capacity, promoting non-oil exports, and advancing technological innovations in the financial sector.


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CBN Governor Urges Nigerians to Stay and Rebuild Amid Economic Reforms

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Mr. Olayemi Cardoso,  Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has urged Nigerians to reconsider leaving the country, popularly referred to as “Japa.”

He assured that the CBN is working toward creating an economy where everyone and every business can thrive.

Cardoso made this appeal in his keynote address at the 59th annual Bankers Dinner organized by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos.

“It is not a good idea to Japa at this stage,” he said, providing two key reasons for his stance. “One, those who may decide they are going to do that, they will sell and get rid of their assets. You’ll be doing it for cheap. Predators, who are outside looking for bargains, will come and take it and pocket it, put it in their pocket and wait for the turnaround and sell it away.”

Cardoso emphasized the importance of collective effort in rebuilding Nigeria. “Number two, you want to be part of the solution. You want to be part of the solution, and this is time that we need all hands on them. There are opportunities in the market today, which I must say, from my experience over the past year and also for the past six months, a lot of interest from the outside in what is going on in Nigeria.”

He pointed out that international investors see potential in the Nigerian market and urged citizens to take advantage of these opportunities. “In taking positions in certain assets, they see the opportunity, and we, who are here, should be part of the solution for the better things which will come.”

Acknowledging the hardship brought on by current economic reforms, Cardoso stressed that these measures are designed to address today’s challenges while securing a brighter future. “We are building an economy where every individual, every business, and every community can thrive,” he said.

He further highlighted the importance of collaboration in achieving this vision. “This vision will not be achieved by one institution alone. It requires all of us — banks, regulators, businesses, and citizens — to work together with steadfast resolve.”


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