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Is Nigeria Heading for a Technical Recession?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policymakers face enormous challenges as the country confronts a looming technical recession just three years after the last downturn in 2017.

The COVID-19 pandemic circumstances have combined with low Oil demand and prices to brew up a perfect storm. Buffeted by the strong headwinds, Nigeria’s second-quarter GDP shrank by 6.1 per cent, the biggest drop since 2004.

Government revenues which rely on Oil sales shrank along with the demand for crude Oil. Besides that, low Oil prices may pressure foreign exchange earnings and reserves, as 90 per cent of Nigeria’s currency earnings stem from sales of crude Oil.

Country remains exposed to external risks

The second-quarter contraction highlights Nigeria’s exposure to external risks around the Oil markets, redoubling the urgency behind the state’s diversification efforts.

The World Bank expects Nigeria to face the worst economic recession since the 1980s because of the collapse in Oil prices. It projects the economy to shrink by 3.2 per cent for the full-year 2020 on the condition that Nigeria contains COVID-19 by the third quarter. If not, the contraction will be worse, according to the World Bank.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more pessimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook. It sees GDP shrinking by 5.4 per cent this year, the biggest decrease in 40 years. Goldman Sachs puts the full-year GDP contraction at a five per cent GDP contraction, closer to the IMF’s than to the World Bank.

The coronavirus lockdown weighed on the economy, as domestic and international activity caved in at the same time.

Domestic risks must not be overlooked

The economic contraction presents significant risks around consumer spending and investor confidence. The pandemic also triggered a higher threat of poverty. The World Bank sees the poverty rate rising to 42.5 per cent from its previous estimate of 40 per cent in 2020.

Along with the human cost, a rise in the poverty rate can affect macroeconomic stability and pose setbacks to economic benchmarks like inflation, unemployment, consumer spending and fiscal spending.

These macroeconomic statistics are already highly sensitive to further risks, like a second wave of COVID-19 or another Oil price collapse.

Unemployment stood at 27.1 per cent in the second quarter. The inflation rate rose to 12.8 per cent in July, the highest since March 2018, meaning a reduction of purchasing power. These benchmarks are likely to remain sources of concern in the second half of the year.

US Dollar scarcity remains another threat to growth, with Naira weakness and ongoing foreign exchange restrictions likely punishing the non-Oil sector.

What role will OPEC play?

Adding to the macro-economic challenges around COVID-19, Nigeria will have to reduce Oil production in August and September to comply fully with OPEC’s supply cuts. Coming on top of lower Oil prices, reduced production means decreased government revenues and foreign exchange earnings. An accompanying knock-on effect on GDP is likely.

In conclusion, Nigeria is likely heading for a technical recession. If the country contains COVID-19 and pro-actively prepares for more localised outbreaks, the World Bank believes this may support GDP and limit the economic damages. Over the last three months, COVID-19 cases have risen to 52,227 cases with 38,945 recoveries. The number of deaths stands at 1002, at the time of writing. When compared to South Africa’s 607,045 cases, Nigeria is in a better public health position. If the authorities limit the spread of coronavirus and continue to manage the situation effectively, Nigeria’s economy has better chances of recovering in line with a global recovery in the medium term.   

 


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E-Financial

Sterling Bank, Water.org, Sterling One Foundation Partner on WASH Loan for Millions

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Sterling Bank, in partnership with nonprofit Water.org and Sterling One Foundation, has launched the Sterling WASH Business Loan to empower WASH businesses and scale sustainable access to safe water and sanitation for millions of Nigerians.

Sterling Bank, Water.org, Sterling One Foundation Partner on WASH Loan for Millions

L-R: Gilbert Okpono, Snr. Partnership Account Manager, Water.org; Engr. Mukhtaar Temitope Tijani, Managing Director, Lagos State Water Corporation; Mrs. Olapeju Ibekwe, CEO, Sterling One Foundation; Akporee Idenedo, Divisional Head Commercial Banking, Sterling Bank, at the Sterling Bank Water Credit Proposition held in Lagos recently.

The catalytic financing solution addresses daily struggles with clean water and safe sanitation, which impact health, livelihoods, and well-being, while strengthening delivery systems for WASH solutions.

Launched on Monday, November 24, 2025, at The Wheatbaker Hotel, Ikoyi, Lagos, the initiative signals a shared commitment to tackling one of Nigeria’s most pressing development challenges.

Abubakar Suleiman, Managing Director of Sterling Bank, said sustainable development hinges on collaboration and targeted investment in frontline businesses and people.

“By providing accessible financing to entrepreneurs in this critical social sector, we ensure progress reaches communities that need it most. This product aligns with our HEART strategy and commitment to improving quality of life through impact-driven initiatives,” Suleiman stated.

Gilbert Okpono, Nigeria Senior Partnership Account Manager at Water.org, stressed the transformative power of financing WASH businesses.

“Financial inclusion is critical to solving the global water and sanitation crisis. By expanding access to affordable financing, we enable households and WASH entrepreneurs to improve services, reach more communities, and transform lives,” Okpono said.

He added that the partnership reflects a belief in rippling benefits across health, education, and economic opportunity, marking a major step toward sustainable scaling.

The loan supports WASH entrepreneurs, small business owners, and community service providers with flexible financing to expand operations, boost health, livelihoods, and educational outcomes.

Olapeju Ibekwe, CEO of Sterling One Foundation, linked the initiative to the foundation’s mission of catalysing lasting social impact across Africa.

“Our Foundation catalyses initiatives that deliver real, lasting change. Access to safe water and sanitation is one of the most powerful investments in community well-being. We are proud to partner with Water.org and Sterling Bank for inclusive, scalable, and sustainable solutions,” Ibekwe affirmed.

The launch event gathered development partners, WASH entrepreneurs, media, policymakers, and community organisations to discuss coordinated financing, supportive policies, and market-driven solutions to close Nigeria’s WASH access gap.

Interested beneficiaries can visit the initiative’s website for more details.


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E-Financial

Access Holdings Shareholders Approved to Raise N40bn Capital Through Private Placement

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Access Holdings Plc has received the approval of its shareholders to raise additional capital of up to N40 billion or such other amount or their equivalent in foreign currencies, via private placement.

The shareholders gave the approval as part of the special resolutions at Access Holdings Plc Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) held on Thursday December 18.

In a notice to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), Access Holdings said the new ordinary shares created in connection with the private placement, will be allotted at a price of N20.25 to one or more investors in such tranches and on such terms and conditions as shall be determined by the Board.

Access Holdings Plc Board of Directors is authorised to consider, negotiate, approve, and finalise the list of potential private placement investors; determine the structure, valuation, modalities, and timeline for the private placement.

The Board was also authorised to consider, negotiate, approve and finalise the list of potential private placement investors; determine the structure, valuation, modalities and timeline for the private placement.

The shareholders also approved for the issued share capital of Access Holdings Plc to be increased from N26 658 billion to N27.646 billion by the creation and addition of 1,975,308,641 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each ranking pari-passu with the existing ordinary shares of the Company.


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Customs Slam 3 Percent Surcharge on Banks over Delayed Revenue Remittance

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Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has imposed a three per cent surcharge on Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) over delays in the remittance of Customs revenue by designated banks.

Customs Slam 3 Percent Surcharge on Banks over Delayed Revenue Remittance

The development was disclosed by Abdullahi Maiwada, national public relations officer of the Service,  in a statement titled “Nigeria Customs Service Commences Enforcement of Penalties Against Designated Banks for Delayed Remittance of Customs Revenue.”

The agency stated that delays in remitting collected Customs revenue constitute a breach of remittance obligations and negatively impact the efficiency, transparency and integrity of government revenue administration.

Maiwada explained that any Designated Bank that fails to remit collected Customs revenue within the prescribed period will be liable to penalty interest, adding that affected banks will receive formal notifications detailing the delayed amount, applicable penalty and the timeline for settlement.

“The NCS has noted instances of delayed remittance of Customs revenue by some Designated Banks following reconciliation of collections processed through the B’Odogwu platform. Such delays constitute a breach of remittance obligations and negatively impact the efficiency, transparency and integrity of government revenue administration.

“In line with the provisions of the Service Level Agreement (SLA) executed between the Nigeria Customs Service and Designated Banks, the Service hereby notifies stakeholders of the commencement of enforcement actions against banks found to be in default of agreed remittance timelines.

“Accordingly, any Designated Bank that fails to remit collected Customs revenue within the prescribed period shall be liable to penalty interest calculated at three per cent above the prevailing Nigerian Interbank Offered Rate for the duration of the delay. Affected banks will receive formal notifications indicating the delayed amount, applicable penalty and the timeline for settlement.”

Maiwada further advised Designated Banks to strengthen their internal controls, ensure strict adherence to remittance timelines and comply fully with the provisions of the SLA.

He reiterated that the Service remains committed to enforcing accountability, safeguarding government revenue and promoting a transparent and predictable financial system in support of national economic development.

“The Service further notes that persistent or repeated non-compliance with the terms of the SLA may attract additional sanctions, including regulatory and administrative measures, as provided under the Agreement and relevant laws guiding Customs revenue collection.

“The NCS reiterates that prompt, accurate and complete remittance of Customs revenue is a fundamental obligation of Designated Banks. Any payment of collected revenue into unauthorised accounts, whether deliberate or erroneous, will be treated as a serious violation and addressed in accordance with the SLA and applicable legal frameworks.

“Designated Banks are therefore advised to strengthen internal controls, ensure strict adherence to remittance timelines and comply fully with the provisions of the SLA. The Service remains committed to enforcing accountability, safeguarding government revenue and promoting a transparent and predictable financial system in support of national economic development,” he added.


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