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Is Nigeria Heading for a Technical Recession?

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By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policymakers face enormous challenges as the country confronts a looming technical recession just three years after the last downturn in 2017.

The COVID-19 pandemic circumstances have combined with low Oil demand and prices to brew up a perfect storm. Buffeted by the strong headwinds, Nigeria’s second-quarter GDP shrank by 6.1 per cent, the biggest drop since 2004.

Government revenues which rely on Oil sales shrank along with the demand for crude Oil. Besides that, low Oil prices may pressure foreign exchange earnings and reserves, as 90 per cent of Nigeria’s currency earnings stem from sales of crude Oil.

Country remains exposed to external risks

The second-quarter contraction highlights Nigeria’s exposure to external risks around the Oil markets, redoubling the urgency behind the state’s diversification efforts.

The World Bank expects Nigeria to face the worst economic recession since the 1980s because of the collapse in Oil prices. It projects the economy to shrink by 3.2 per cent for the full-year 2020 on the condition that Nigeria contains COVID-19 by the third quarter. If not, the contraction will be worse, according to the World Bank.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more pessimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook. It sees GDP shrinking by 5.4 per cent this year, the biggest decrease in 40 years. Goldman Sachs puts the full-year GDP contraction at a five per cent GDP contraction, closer to the IMF’s than to the World Bank.

The coronavirus lockdown weighed on the economy, as domestic and international activity caved in at the same time.

Domestic risks must not be overlooked

The economic contraction presents significant risks around consumer spending and investor confidence. The pandemic also triggered a higher threat of poverty. The World Bank sees the poverty rate rising to 42.5 per cent from its previous estimate of 40 per cent in 2020.

Along with the human cost, a rise in the poverty rate can affect macroeconomic stability and pose setbacks to economic benchmarks like inflation, unemployment, consumer spending and fiscal spending.

These macroeconomic statistics are already highly sensitive to further risks, like a second wave of COVID-19 or another Oil price collapse.

Unemployment stood at 27.1 per cent in the second quarter. The inflation rate rose to 12.8 per cent in July, the highest since March 2018, meaning a reduction of purchasing power. These benchmarks are likely to remain sources of concern in the second half of the year.

US Dollar scarcity remains another threat to growth, with Naira weakness and ongoing foreign exchange restrictions likely punishing the non-Oil sector.

What role will OPEC play?

Adding to the macro-economic challenges around COVID-19, Nigeria will have to reduce Oil production in August and September to comply fully with OPEC’s supply cuts. Coming on top of lower Oil prices, reduced production means decreased government revenues and foreign exchange earnings. An accompanying knock-on effect on GDP is likely.

In conclusion, Nigeria is likely heading for a technical recession. If the country contains COVID-19 and pro-actively prepares for more localised outbreaks, the World Bank believes this may support GDP and limit the economic damages. Over the last three months, COVID-19 cases have risen to 52,227 cases with 38,945 recoveries. The number of deaths stands at 1002, at the time of writing. When compared to South Africa’s 607,045 cases, Nigeria is in a better public health position. If the authorities limit the spread of coronavirus and continue to manage the situation effectively, Nigeria’s economy has better chances of recovering in line with a global recovery in the medium term.   

 


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Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

World Bank Approves $300m Loan to Support IDPs in Northern Nigeria

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World Bank has said that it has given approval of $300 million to fund a new project aimed at bolstering access to services and economic opportunities for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and their host communities in northern Nigeria.

World Bank Approves $300m Loan to Support IDPs in Northern Nigeria

In a release, the World Bank said the Solutions for the Internally Displaced and Host Communities Project (SOLID) was approved on August 7.

It stated that the project will adopt an integrated development strategy to help displaced persons and host communities transition from humanitarian aid to self-reliance and resilience.

It also said the ongoing conflict and insecurity in the region have displaced more than 3.5 million people, straining infrastructure and deepening competition for scarce resources in affected communities.

The bank said SOLID will build on previous government and partner interventions, including the multi-sectoral crisis recovery project (MCRP), which focused on emergency recovery.

“Key areas of focus include building climate-resilient infrastructure, promoting social cohesion, supporting livelihoods, and strengthening institutions to better respond to the pressures of forced displacement.

“We are glad to support this initiative which has a tremendous potential to help Nigeria in addressing development challenges associated with protracted displacement in a sustainable way,” Mathew Verghis, World Bank country director for Nigeria, said.

“The Project’s integrated approach which is aligned with the National IDP Policy and the FGN’s long-term development vision will ensure that IDPs and host communities can transition from dependency on humanitarian assistance to self-reliance and resilience which will open up better economic opportunities,” it added.

The World Bank, which noted that the cproject is expected to benefit up to 7.4 million people, of whom up to 1.3 million individuals are identified as IDPs, added that the project will be implemented through a coordinated, community-driven approach involving all tiers of government, with strong partnerships from international stakeholders.

 

 

 

 


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E-Financial

UBA Unveils Revamped Website, Heralds New of Digital Experience

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United Bank for Africa (UBA), Plc, Africa’s Global Bank, has launched its revamped Group website to enhance users’ digital experience.

UBA Unveils Revamped Website, Heralds New of Digital Experience

The newly revamped website boasts of a faster, smarter, and more dynamic digital platform, designed to deliver live news updates, real-time Nigerian stock prices, and a world-class user experience among other world-class features.

The upgrade marks a significant leap in the bank’s digital transformation journey, setting new standards for speed, accessibility, and innovation in the African banking industry.

Alero Ladipo,  group head, Marketing and Corporate Communication, UBA, who spoke excitedly about the revamped website, explained that the redesign focuses on simplifying user-journey, improving responsiveness across all devices, and incorporating a language-agnostic interface that caters to the bank’s diverse global audience.

She explained that with its sleek, intuitive layout and enhanced navigation, the site empowers customers, investors, and stakeholders to access critical information instantly – whether it is the latest market movements, breaking financial news, or UBA’s wide range of products and services.

Ms Ladipo said, “We are thrilled to unveil our new website, which represents a significant milestone in our digital transformation journey. Our goal is to provide a world-class digital experience that meets the evolving needs of our customers and stakeholders.”

Continuing, she added, “A major highlight of the upgrade is its speed, powered by an upgraded server infrastructure with enhanced load balancing to ensure minimal downtime and lightning-fast performance. By combining speed, accessibility, and live market intelligence, our new platform strengthens our position as an industry leader.”

She pointed out that the site also integrates automated news updates powered by International agency, Bloomberg and real-time stock prices tracking, ensuring visitors remain informed at all times.

Throwing more light on the new features, Amanda Oguamanam, head, Digital and Online Marketing, UBA, said; “We have transformed our website to be faster, cleaner, and more engaging, removing clutter by over 60%, upgrading servers for speed and reliability, streamlining navigation, and tailoring content to inspire global partners while making it easier for customers to find what they need.”

Other standout features, she added, include improved accessibility for users with disabilities, dark/light mode toggle, advanced search functions, and a simplified content structure, which are all designed to deliver an inclusive, modern experience for a global audience.

The revamped website is live and accessible at www.ubagroup.com.

United Bank for Africa is one of the largest employers in the financial sector on the African continent, with 25,000 employees group wide and serving over 45 million customers globally.

Operating in twenty African countries and the United Kingdom, the United States of America, France and the United Arab Emirates, UBA provides retail, commercial and institutional banking services, leading financial inclusion and implementing cutting-edge technology.


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NBS Reports ₦6.72 Trillion VAT Haul as Tax Reforms Pay Off

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Nigeria’s Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue surged to ₦6.72 trillion in 2024, marking an 84.6% increase from ₦3.64 trillion in 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This sharp rise reflects stronger economic activity and improved tax collection efforts across key sectors.

VAT revenue showed consistent growth throughout the year. In Q1 2024, collections stood at ₦1.43 trillion. This rose to ₦1.56 trillion in Q2, representing a 9.09% increase. Q3 recorded ₦1.78 trillion, up 14% from the previous quarter, while Q4 peaked at ₦1.95 trillion, a 9.5% rise from Q3.

In Q4 alone, VAT collections totaled ₦1.95 trillion, with domestic VAT payments contributing ₦917.40 billion, non-import foreign VAT at ₦554.68 billion, and import VAT at ₦474.75 billion. Domestic VAT remained the largest source, indicating strong local business activity and consumer spending.

Several sectors posted significant quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4. Extraterritorial organisations and bodies saw a dramatic rise of 180.05%, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing at 70.83%, and human health and social work at 46.13%. These gains suggest increased operational scope, improved compliance, and possibly targeted government incentives.

However, not all sectors fared well. Households as employers and self-use production contracted by 28.97%, while the information and communication sector declined by 23%. The drop in ICT may reflect shifting market dynamics or regulatory headwinds affecting digital services.

Overall, the surge in VAT revenue signals a positive fiscal outlook for Nigeria, with implications for budgetary planning, infrastructure investment, and social services funding. It also highlights the importance of sector-specific monitoring to sustain momentum and address emerging challenges.


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