Connect with us

E-Financial

Is Nigeria Heading for a Technical Recession?

Published

on

Kindly share this post

By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,

Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policymakers face enormous challenges as the country confronts a looming technical recession just three years after the last downturn in 2017.

The COVID-19 pandemic circumstances have combined with low Oil demand and prices to brew up a perfect storm. Buffeted by the strong headwinds, Nigeria’s second-quarter GDP shrank by 6.1 per cent, the biggest drop since 2004.

Government revenues which rely on Oil sales shrank along with the demand for crude Oil. Besides that, low Oil prices may pressure foreign exchange earnings and reserves, as 90 per cent of Nigeria’s currency earnings stem from sales of crude Oil.

Country remains exposed to external risks

The second-quarter contraction highlights Nigeria’s exposure to external risks around the Oil markets, redoubling the urgency behind the state’s diversification efforts.

The World Bank expects Nigeria to face the worst economic recession since the 1980s because of the collapse in Oil prices. It projects the economy to shrink by 3.2 per cent for the full-year 2020 on the condition that Nigeria contains COVID-19 by the third quarter. If not, the contraction will be worse, according to the World Bank.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more pessimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook. It sees GDP shrinking by 5.4 per cent this year, the biggest decrease in 40 years. Goldman Sachs puts the full-year GDP contraction at a five per cent GDP contraction, closer to the IMF’s than to the World Bank.

The coronavirus lockdown weighed on the economy, as domestic and international activity caved in at the same time.

Domestic risks must not be overlooked

The economic contraction presents significant risks around consumer spending and investor confidence. The pandemic also triggered a higher threat of poverty. The World Bank sees the poverty rate rising to 42.5 per cent from its previous estimate of 40 per cent in 2020.

Along with the human cost, a rise in the poverty rate can affect macroeconomic stability and pose setbacks to economic benchmarks like inflation, unemployment, consumer spending and fiscal spending.

These macroeconomic statistics are already highly sensitive to further risks, like a second wave of COVID-19 or another Oil price collapse.

Unemployment stood at 27.1 per cent in the second quarter. The inflation rate rose to 12.8 per cent in July, the highest since March 2018, meaning a reduction of purchasing power. These benchmarks are likely to remain sources of concern in the second half of the year.

US Dollar scarcity remains another threat to growth, with Naira weakness and ongoing foreign exchange restrictions likely punishing the non-Oil sector.

What role will OPEC play?

Adding to the macro-economic challenges around COVID-19, Nigeria will have to reduce Oil production in August and September to comply fully with OPEC’s supply cuts. Coming on top of lower Oil prices, reduced production means decreased government revenues and foreign exchange earnings. An accompanying knock-on effect on GDP is likely.

In conclusion, Nigeria is likely heading for a technical recession. If the country contains COVID-19 and pro-actively prepares for more localised outbreaks, the World Bank believes this may support GDP and limit the economic damages. Over the last three months, COVID-19 cases have risen to 52,227 cases with 38,945 recoveries. The number of deaths stands at 1002, at the time of writing. When compared to South Africa’s 607,045 cases, Nigeria is in a better public health position. If the authorities limit the spread of coronavirus and continue to manage the situation effectively, Nigeria’s economy has better chances of recovering in line with a global recovery in the medium term.   

 


Kindly share this post

Ugo Onwuaso is an ICT enthusiast. He believes technology should be used for general good. He holds a Master of Public Administration (MPA) degree from the Lagos state University. Dear Reader, Your support matters. But we believe that technology makes life more exciting and helps improve the lives of people around Nigeria and indeed the world. That is why, we have devoted our energy to independent reportage of technology and finance and how they affect lives. Our incisive and analytical view of how technology news affects the daily life help individuals and organizations make up their minds. Quality journalism costs money. Today, we're asking that you support us to do more. Kindly support our effort to deliver technology and finance journalism to everyone in the world. Donate as little as N1,000. Bank transfers can be made to: UBA Plc 1017156876 Communication Week Media Ltd

E-Financial

MoneyMaster PSB Marks 2024 Global Money Week

Published

on

Kindly share this post

MoneyMaster Payment Service Bank Limited (MMPSB), Nigeria’s payment service bank, is joining blue chip companies and other corporate entities across the globe to celebrate the 2024 Global Money Week from March 18 to 24, 2024.

In a press statement issued on the celebration, MMPSB emphasized  its commitment to the provision of top-notch banking services to its customers at all times, including payment services through wallets, savings, individual and business accounts, as well as provision of a platform for customers to buy airtime/data, pay bills and subscribe to cable television, amongst others.

MMPSB said its plans for the week include a “Catch them Young” experiential campaign to tutor kids on the need to embrace savings and investment culture. An estimated 5,000 students from across major schools in Nigeria have been programmed to participate in the week-long financial literacy training in the bank’s coordinating centres across 10 states.

Besides this, the MoneyMaster team will also engage teachers and enlighten them on basic knowledge of savings and investment for future purposes.

The bank added, “As part of the week-long celebration, MoneyMaster PSB will also be releasing thought leadership videos on safety and security on how banking customers can protect themselves. These videos will be shared to its customers via direct email and also on its social media handles for the benefit of the general public”.

The week, celebrated annually, creates global awareness-raising campaign on the importance of ensuring that young people, from an early age, are financially aware, and are gradually acquiring the knowledge, skills, attitudes and behaviour necessary to make sound financial decisions and ultimately achieve financial well-being.

“Protect your money, secure your future”, the theme for this year’s celebration,  is focused on safe money management, underscoring  the importance of adopting a responsible and informed approach to personal finance, by being aware of potential risks in the financial sector and protecting one’s hard-earned money.


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

E-Financial

Moniepoint Emerges Lead Sponsor of Payments Forum Nigeria – PAFON 1.0

Published

on

Kindly share this post

Moniepoint Inc. a global digital financial services provider with operations in Nigeria and an ongoing expansion into other emerging markets, has emerged the lead sponsor of the maiden edition of Payments Forum Nigeria (PAFON 1.0).

Payments Forum Nigeria [PAFON] is an event focused on providing inside-look at the payment industry in the country, offering perspectives from key stakeholders, including payment networks, technology innovators, leading merchants, issuers, acquirers and payment processors.

The Forum is scheduled to take place this Thursday, March 21, 2024 at the Oriental Hotel, Lekki Road, Lagos by 9am-12noon, under the theme: “Payments: Trust, Security and Privacy in AI Era”.

Register here: https://bit.ly/4c4N19H

Moniepoint Inc., founded with the vision to create a society where everyone experiences financial happiness, joins other sponsors of the event: Digital Encode Limited (a leading consulting and integration that specializes in the design, management, and security of business-critical architecture); Cybervergent (a company dedicated to helping protect business sensitive data from cyber-attacks, including customer information, financial records and intellectual property); Payble (a fintech startup that modernises local government payments such as creating citizen-centric payment experiences, delivering flexible billing and simplified rate collection, and Inlaks, an IT company that offers core banking, fraud management, cybersecurity, cloud, data center, enterprise risk management, amongst other industry players.

Moniepoint Inc is the parent company of TeamApt Limited, a Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) licensed Switch and Processor, and Moniepoint Microfinance Bank, a CBN-licensed Microfinance Bank, and operates the largest distribution network for financial services in Nigeria through its subsidiaries, and has been awarded by the CBN in 2022 as the most inclusive payment platform in the country.

Over 70 million people use their cards on Moniepoint’s POS terminals monthly across every local government in Nigeria.

Led by its Group CEO, Tosin Eniolorunda, Moniepoint Inc.’s technology has powered businesses, offering all the payment, banking, credit and business management tools they need to succeed. It aims to power the dreams of businesses, their employees and customers by providing them with the financial technology tools they need to grow, no matter their digital literacy level.

Moniepoint Inc. currently processes the majority of the POS transactions in Nigeria through its subsidiaries, processing over $182 billion in TPV. It is Africa’s largest Fintech by transaction volume. It is profitable and, in 2022, became QED Investors’ first investment into Africa.

Moniepoint Inc was recently named as the Fintech Company of the Year by the Leadership Newspapers Group.

Speakers:

Meanwhile, speakers lined for PAFON 1.0 are: Chibuzo Efobi, Director, Payments System Management, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN); Festus Amede, Chairman, Committee of Chief Information Security Officers of Nigerian Financial institutions (CCISONFI); Dr. Adewale Peter Obadare, Chief Visionary Officer (CVO), Digital Encode Limited; Adetokunbo Omotosho, Chief Executive Officer, Cybervergent; Roosevelt Elias, Founder, Payble; Ikenna Ndugbu, Chief Compliance Officer, Moniepoint MFB, and others.

Participation:

Participation is FREE, however, pre-registration is required: https://bit.ly/4c4N19H


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

E-Financial

BVN Registration Hits 61.16m

Published

on

Kindly share this post

Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System has said the registration for the Bank Verification Number (BVN) has now increased to 61.16 million, according to Vanguard report.

NIBSS disclosed this on its website on Saturday, adding that the BVN is 61,166,384 as of Friday, March 15, 2024.

Earlier in the year, the agency had reported that as of January 26, the BVN count stood at 59.9 million.

This indicates that there have been 674,280 new registrations for BVN between late January and mid-March.

The need for Nigerians to register their BVN arose following the demands by banks and telecommunication companies asking people to link their accounts and phone numbers with SIM.

Majority of Nigerians have let out their frustrations at some point when the linking of BVN with accounts were not successful.


Kindly share this post
Continue Reading

Trending