E-Financial
Is Nigeria Heading for a Technical Recession?
By Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM,
Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policymakers face enormous challenges as the country confronts a looming technical recession just three years after the last downturn in 2017.
The COVID-19 pandemic circumstances have combined with low Oil demand and prices to brew up a perfect storm. Buffeted by the strong headwinds, Nigeria’s second-quarter GDP shrank by 6.1 per cent, the biggest drop since 2004.
Government revenues which rely on Oil sales shrank along with the demand for crude Oil. Besides that, low Oil prices may pressure foreign exchange earnings and reserves, as 90 per cent of Nigeria’s currency earnings stem from sales of crude Oil.
Country remains exposed to external risks
The second-quarter contraction highlights Nigeria’s exposure to external risks around the Oil markets, redoubling the urgency behind the state’s diversification efforts.
The World Bank expects Nigeria to face the worst economic recession since the 1980s because of the collapse in Oil prices. It projects the economy to shrink by 3.2 per cent for the full-year 2020 on the condition that Nigeria contains COVID-19 by the third quarter. If not, the contraction will be worse, according to the World Bank.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more pessimistic about Nigeria’s economic outlook. It sees GDP shrinking by 5.4 per cent this year, the biggest decrease in 40 years. Goldman Sachs puts the full-year GDP contraction at a five per cent GDP contraction, closer to the IMF’s than to the World Bank.
The coronavirus lockdown weighed on the economy, as domestic and international activity caved in at the same time.
Domestic risks must not be overlooked
The economic contraction presents significant risks around consumer spending and investor confidence. The pandemic also triggered a higher threat of poverty. The World Bank sees the poverty rate rising to 42.5 per cent from its previous estimate of 40 per cent in 2020.
Along with the human cost, a rise in the poverty rate can affect macroeconomic stability and pose setbacks to economic benchmarks like inflation, unemployment, consumer spending and fiscal spending.
These macroeconomic statistics are already highly sensitive to further risks, like a second wave of COVID-19 or another Oil price collapse.
Unemployment stood at 27.1 per cent in the second quarter. The inflation rate rose to 12.8 per cent in July, the highest since March 2018, meaning a reduction of purchasing power. These benchmarks are likely to remain sources of concern in the second half of the year.
US Dollar scarcity remains another threat to growth, with Naira weakness and ongoing foreign exchange restrictions likely punishing the non-Oil sector.
Adding to the macro-economic challenges around COVID-19, Nigeria will have to reduce Oil production in August and September to comply fully with OPEC’s supply cuts. Coming on top of lower Oil prices, reduced production means decreased government revenues and foreign exchange earnings. An accompanying knock-on effect on GDP is likely.
In conclusion, Nigeria is likely heading for a technical recession. If the country contains COVID-19 and pro-actively prepares for more localised outbreaks, the World Bank believes this may support GDP and limit the economic damages. Over the last three months, COVID-19 cases have risen to 52,227 cases with 38,945 recoveries. The number of deaths stands at 1002, at the time of writing. When compared to South Africa’s 607,045 cases, Nigeria is in a better public health position. If the authorities limit the spread of coronavirus and continue to manage the situation effectively, Nigeria’s economy has better chances of recovering in line with a global recovery in the medium term.
E-Financial
Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings
The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.
The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.
The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.
The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.
“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.
During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).
In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.
E-Financial
Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.
A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.
When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.
Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.
The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.
However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.
The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.
According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.
However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.
It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.
Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.
Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.
Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.
He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.
Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.
E-Financial
NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit
Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.
Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.
Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.
He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.
Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.
He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.
Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.
He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.
He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.
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