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Crude Oil: A Sudden Tumble

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The major headline-catching storyline throughout the latter half of 2014 and even the opening week of 2015 has been the dramatic plummet in oil prices, with Crude having declined by around 50% since last June.

Concerns over an oversupply of oil in the markets encouraged bearish pressure, while heightened anxiety over global economic health inspired fears that there would be less demand for the commodity and further elevated anxiety regarding there being an oversupply in the markets.

This encouraged further downside movement, while the OPEC decision not to cut production last November went on to inspire the commodity to conclude the year around five-year lows.

There was some optimism that the oil markets had found a floor when the selling paused around Christmas, but it was always expected that this was just a small consolidation while traders took a break over the holiday.

I was also curious that the consolidation could have been a preparation for the next leg lower, which proved to be the case.

As 2015 has commenced, the decline in oil prices has resumed with Crude already losing a further $5 from its valuation.

Traders have become increasingly aware regarding the current economic conditions being strictly against the commodity, where the heavily-weighted supply and demand equation has only had one outcome: further declines for oil and economic conditions so heavily against a comeback that even the most risky of investors are being eliminated from considering purchasing.

Despite the bears completely dominating and squeezing as much as they can to squash prices, there remains optimism that Crude can rebound back towards $70.

I question the potential for this because the OPEC decision not to cut production in November basically suggested that the committee group were no longer in control of the oil markets, and confirmed a longer-term bearish outlook for oil.

A rebound would be dependent on OPEC reversing its decision against cutting production and with prices already crashing down below $50, this appears unlikely as well. Could OPEC reverse its decision in the future? Perhaps.

However, traders will continue to price in as many declines as possible beforehand. Furthermore, oil inventories are increasing on what appears to be a weekly basis and it would require a significant cut in production, otherwise inventories will just creep back up to the same levels where there is another oversupply.

Additionally a rebound would also likely be dependent on increased demand for the commodity but with global economic health concerns being so elevated, this is hard to envisage.

It appears highly likely that global growth concerns will continue throughout the first quarter in 2015.

This would more likely lead to further anxiety over reduced demand for the commodity, and encourage bearish pressure.

Economic data from China is also highly important, due to the world’s second-largest economy being the largest importer of oil. It is no coincidence at all that in the hours following China’s worst PMI manufacturing decline of the year, pressure resumed in the oil markets.

It is also worth noting that Crude is priced in USD and towards the middle of 2015, the overwhelming majority expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising US interest rates.

This will lead to an aggressive USD rally, while spelling further bad news for commodities and metals.

The Fed raising rates will pressure Crude and as long as the Fed raises rates as planned towards the middle of next year, the commodity will face a further downside risk.

Overall, there are just so many economic conditions being against a comeback that it makes it difficult to believe one will happen anytime soon.

Can it happen? Sure.

However, it is going to require a combination of greatly reduced concerns over an oversupply in the markets, and global economic optimism raising demand, for oil to wake up the bulls. Getting these two factors to collaborate at the same time might also be tricky.

The technicals currently paint an extremely depressing picture for Crude Oil, to the point where the price has tumbled so rapidly that no technical patterns can even be found.

We have already crashed through psychological support around $70, $63, $57, $52 and $47.

The $42 area is widely seen as the next big test and if we extend below here, it is going to require some time for the prices to even find a floor, let alone any type of rebound back towards $70.

Jameel Ahmad is the chief market analyst at Forex Time (FXTM).


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KidsCook Showdown 2.0 Set to Empower Public School Pupils with Culinary, Life Skills

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Dominion Consultancy Concepts has officially announced the second edition of the KidsCook Showdown, a unique educational and creative cooking competition designed to foster leadership, teamwork, creativity and accountability among children ages 6 to 8.

Following its successful debut in 2025, this latest edition marks a significant milestone by securing the official approval of the Lagos State Universal Basic Education Board (LASUBEB). For the first time, the initiative will shine a spotlight on public education, featuring 20 children within the ages of 6 to 8 years old, selected from 10 public primary schools across the Kosofe Local Government Area.

The KidsCook Showdown is far more than a typical cooking contest. Under the close guidance of professional chefs, the young participants will work in teams to tackle fun, high-energy culinary challenges.

Rather than focusing solely on the final dish, a panel of judges will evaluate the children on essential life skills: teamwork, confidence, time management, communication, and hygiene.

Speaking about the vision behind the program, Enitan Tanimowo, Director of Dominion Consultancy Concepts, emphasised the importance of introducing children to household chores early.

“Our goal is to inspire children to see cooking not just as a chore, but as a fun, creative way to develop themselves, learn discipline, and build confidence and these skills help them into the future,” Tanimowo stated.

“By expanding into our public schools with LASUBEB’s vital support, we are ensuring that children from all backgrounds get an equal opportunity to develop leadership and accountability in a structured, inspiring environment.”

Tanimowo added that the initiative directly aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals—specifically SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 4 (Quality Education)—by using hands-on, practical learning to promote balanced nutrition and social development. The event is bringing together parents, teachers, and professionals to champion the next generation.

The grand scale of this edition is made possible through the robust corporate and media backing of industry-leading brands. This year’s KidsCook Showdown is proudly supported by Zuri Seasoning, Ribena, Channels TV, Integrated Indigo Limited, and other partners committed to youth development and impactful community engagement in Nigeria.

Together, these partners are helping transform the kitchen into a classroom where future leaders are shaped, one recipe at a time.

 


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 Guinea-Bissau Taps United Nigeria Airlines to Establish AIR BISSAU, National Carrier 

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Government of Guinea-Bissau has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Nigeria’s United Nigeria Airlines to establish AIR BISSAU, a national carrier, for the West African country, to boost its aviation industry and reduce its dependence on foreign airlines.

 Guinea-Bissau Taps United Nigeria Airlines to Establish AIR BISSAU, National Carrier 

The agreement, signed in Bissau, the capital of Guinea-Bissau, was disclosed in a statement made available by the airline on Sunday.

The MoU was signed by Dr Florentino Pereira, minister of Transport, Telecommunications and Digital Economy,  Guinea-Bissau and Prof Obiora Okonkwo, executive chairman of United Nigeria Airlines.

Recall that Nigeria currently has no national carrier despite repeated calls by industry stakeholders for its establishment to facilitate reciprocal flight rights to foreign destinations, particularly the United States.

Attempts to establish a national carrier through a partnership with Ethiopian Airlines also hit a brick wall following lawsuits by the Airline Operators of Nigeria, an association for which Okonkwo once served as spokesperson.

Other factors that contributed to the failure of the national carrier project included deep-seated political issues, allegations of fraud and a controversial ownership structure.

In the latest agreement between the Nigerian airline and Guinea-Bissau, which was made available to our correspondent, both parties will “explore a comprehensive cooperation framework aimed at establishing a fully operational national airline with Osvaldo Vieira International Airport in Bissau serving as the operational base and hub for the carrier’s initial routes.”

For decades, Guinea-Bissau has relied largely on regional carriers and charter services to connect its citizens and businesses to other countries.

A key component of the MoU is the creation of a joint venture company that will operate as Guinea-Bissau’s national airline.

Under the arrangement, United Nigeria Airlines will provide the majority of the financial investment, operational expertise, aircraft and management for the new carrier.

Extending beyond commercial operations, the Nigerian carrier is expected to “provide and operate an executive jet for the use of the President and Government of Guinea-Bissau.”

To facilitate the project, the government pledged to “facilitate the registration and licensing of the new national carrier in line with domestic laws and streamline authorisation processes through both the Civil Aviation Authority of Guinea-Bissau and the Civil Aviation Authority of Nigeria.”

Guinea-Bissau also agreed to designate AIR BISSAU as its official national carrier, granting it “full rights over all existing Bilateral Air Services Agreement entitlements.”

According to the MoU, the designation would give the airline “significant leverage in securing route rights and authorisations to regional and international destinations,” described as an important commercial and diplomatic asset.

The government further committed to ensuring that Osvaldo Vieira International Airport receives the infrastructure support required for the airline’s operations, including access provisions, ground support services and assistance with customs, immigration and security compliance.

Additionally, Guinea-Bissau pledged to invest in the establishment of the airline and create mechanisms that would protect and incentivise investment through the existing Investment Code and applicable tax frameworks.

As part of efforts to develop local aviation expertise, United Nigeria Airlines plans to train “qualified Guinean nationals including pilots, cabin crew, and technical maintenance personnel” and employ local staff wherever feasible in line with government employment policies.

The MoU makes it clear that operational control of the airline will remain with the Nigerian carrier.

“For the purposes of safety, reliability, and efficiency, the overall management, operational control, and general direction of the new airline will rest with the management team of United Nigeria Airlines,” the statement noted.

Both parties also agreed to provide full liability and hull insurance coverage for all flight operations, conduct annual independent safety and maintenance audits, and establish asset protection mechanisms for investors.

The agreement takes immediate effect and will remain valid for 18 months or until a substantive joint venture agreement is concluded.


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IMF Urges FG to Introduce Fuel, Telecom Taxes

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended introducing taxes on fuel products and telecommunications services in Nigeria.

IMF Urges FG to Introduce Fuel, Telecom Taxes

According to the IMF, this is part of broader measures to increase government revenue and create fiscal space for development spending and social interventions.

The international financial organization argued that stronger revenue mobilisation had become increasingly important as Nigeria’s fiscal position remained under pressure despite recent reforms.

This comes as Nigerians are protesting against worsening standard of living made worse by widespread insurgency.

The recommendation was contained in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria, where the Fund argued that additional tax measures would be needed over the medium term despite the recent overhaul of the country’s tax system.

“Further tax policy changes will likely be needed—such as increasing the VAT rate, extending VAT to fuel products, rationalising tax expenditures in particular VAT exemptions on extractive industries and some customs duties, and introducing telecom excises—to complement administrative gains,” the IMF said.

The institution, however, cautioned that the timing of any new taxes must take into account Nigeria’s rising poverty levels and worsening food insecurity.

“The timing of reforms must consider the poverty and food insecurity situation and ensure that the cash transfer system is in place and funded,” the Fund added.

A previous attempt by the Federal Government to impose a five per cent excise duty on telecom services met strong resistance from operators, subscribers and consumer advocacy groups before it was suspended and eventually scrapped.

Telecommunications firms had maintained that the industry was already weighed down by multiple taxes, rising energy costs, foreign exchange challenges and infrastructure constraints.

They warned that any additional levy would likely be transferred to consumers through higher call and data tariffs.

Similarly, proposals to tax fuel products have faced opposition from labour unions and private sector organisations amid concerns over the rising cost of living following the removal of petrol subsidies and increases in transport and food prices.

The IMF’s latest recommendation comes as the Fund projects that Nigeria will require stronger revenue mobilisation efforts to sustain planned increases in public spending and provide support for vulnerable households.

According to the report, revenue-enhancing tax policies could generate additional revenue equivalent to 3.9 per cent of Gross Domestic Product within three years of implementation.

The Fund identified a two-percentage-point increase in the Value Added Tax rate as the largest contributor, with a projected revenue gain of 0.8 per cent of GDP.

The report also projected that removing pioneer status incentives and revising free zone regulations would generate an additional 0.7 per cent of GDP.

Reforms to capital gains taxation and adjustments to personal income tax bands, allowances and rates were each estimated to contribute 0.6 per cent of GDP.

The IMF further estimated that a top-up tax on multinationals and large firms could raise 0.5 per cent of GDP, while rationalising investment allowances would contribute another 0.4 per cent.

Notably, the category labelled “others”, which includes telecom excise duties and measures such as a carbon tax on fuel, was projected to generate an additional 0.4 per cent of GDP in revenue.

Beyond new tax measures, the Fund said Nigeria could achieve even greater gains through improved tax administration.

It projected that administrative reforms would generate an additional 3.1 per cent of GDP through better compliance, stronger enforcement and efforts to reduce informality in the economy.

According to the report, measures such as fiscalisation, electronic invoicing and cross-validation of tax deductions could generate 1.5 per cent of GDP, while expanded tax identification registration and consolidation of taxpayer databases could contribute a further 1.6 per cent of GDP.

The IMF acknowledged that some of Nigeria’s recently enacted tax reforms would reduce government revenue in the short term because they were designed to support households and small businesses.

It estimated that revenue-reducing measures would lower revenues by 2.4 per cent of GDP.

Expanded VAT input credits, additional zero-rated items and broader exemptions on basic consumption goods were projected to account for 1.7 percentage points of the decline.

Lower corporate income tax obligations for smaller firms would reduce revenues by 0.4 per cent of GDP, while lower personal income tax rates and expanded exemptions for low-income earners would account for another 0.3 percentage-point reduction.

Overall, the IMF projected that the combined impact of revenue-enhancing measures, administrative reforms and revenue-reducing policies would result in a net increase in government revenue equivalent to 4.6 per cent of GDP over the medium term.Nigerian investment opportunities


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