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Experts Say Steady Power Supply’ll Boost Economy

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Economists have predicted that if Nigeria gets its public electricity grid working 24 hours, the nation would greatly reduce business costs by up to 40 percent and add up three percent to GDP.

This is will also cut unemployment that seems to fuel social unrest in nearly all six geo-political regions of the country.

Dayo Samuel, of the department of Economics Education at the Adeniran Ogunsanya College of Education, Ijanikin (Lagos) noted that Nigeria’s man-hour lost as a result of the poor national power supply cannot be quantified.

“But I bet you, if this president is able to fix the power challenge as his singular achievement, you’ll see an accelerated growth in national productivity. I believe we could achieve up to four per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) and cut unemployment drastically,” said Samuel.

But Afiz Olaosebikan, of the department of Economics at the Lagos State University, Ojo while agreeing that Nigeria could achieve dramatic increase in GDP if power is fix, does not share in any optimistic expectation of that realization.

“Honestly, I don’t see any increase in power generation during the life of this administration. The president appears more of a talking man than working. I’d like to see practical steps towards his projection of achieving 10, 000MW by December 2013. I don’t see that target being achieved,” said Olaosebikan.

Some experts have estimated that Nigeria spends a whopping $13 billion yearly on imported diesel to run factories. This estimation does not include domestic usage which could run even higher.

Already, President Goodluck Jonathan is rethinking the attainability of the much taunted Vision 20:2020 goal inherited from former President Olusegun Obasanjo. The vision document envisioned that Nigeria could attain a global top 20 economic power status by 2020.

So far public power supply from the national grid has grown from less than 3000 MV in 2010 to about 4000MW, still a far cry from the projected 10, 000MW by December 2013.

Penultimate week, the President hosted a group of private investors at the Presidential Villa, in Abuja where he laid out the planned cannibalization of the public electricity company, the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), to about 17 distinct generation and distribution firms.

Although Nigeria is expecting to reap in excess of $2.5 Billion from the PHCN balkanization, the process of auctioning these firms has raised issues of transparency with several leading political bigwigs and their business cronies as major beneficiaries.

Unlike the 2001 GSM auctioning process which was globally acclaimed as very transparent and has seen the country leapfrog as one of the leading mobile markets in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, and one of the fastest growing telecom investment ports of destination, the electricity project hasn’t been that fair.

Yet there seem to be a gleam in the horizon especially with the technical presence of multinational firms like GE, Siemens, Schneider Electric and Manila Electric.

President Jonathan told the investors that Nigerians would not take anything for less, except they begin to see power like their mobile phones. “Much has been achieved, yet the race will not be over until Nigerians can take electricity supply for granted,” said Jonathan.

Last Friday, the President assured Nigerians on his facebook page progress was being made on the national electricity project.

“Two weeks ago, I hosted the Presidential Power Reform Transactions Signing Ceremony. The five power generation companies that emerged successful in the bidding process of the privatization of the sector received their certificates and are set to run their companies in a way as to guarantee electricity for domestic and industrial use even as the world is celebrating the transparent bidding process that culminated in the signing.

I want to assure you my friends on facebook that we shall put the darkness of these past decades behind us in no distant time. We shall only keep a forward movement in the critical sectors of our economy and may Almighty God help us all.”

Elsewhere, appallingly, Nigeria’s current 4000MW power output is comparably a tenth of the continent’s economic powerhouse; South Africa whose population is just about a third of Nigeria’s 160 million.

David Ladipo, an investor, whose company Azura is spending $700 million to build a 450 MW plant told an international wire agency: “It will probably take Nigeria another 50 years before it attains the same level of electricity consumption per capita as South Africa currently enjoys today.”

Last week workers union of the now defunct PHCN threatened to throw the nation into total darkness if government goes ahead with plans to lay off about 20, 000 staff as demanded by some of its core investors despite assuances they would be fully paid off.

Both the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB) are investing substantial sums into the power project and expectations are that Nigeria’s horizons would be brighter soon.


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E-Financial

KPMG Identifies ‘Flaws, Inconsistencies, and Omission’ in New Tax Law

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KPMG Nigeria has identified what’s described as “errors, inconsistencies, gaps and omissions” in Nigeria’s tax laws that came into force at the beginning of this year.

The professional services company warns that these issues could undermine the attainment of the tax reforms’ stated objectives if left unaddressed.

The reforms, anchored on the Nigeria Tax Act (NTA) and the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), alongside the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS)  Establishment Act and the Joint Revenue Board (JRB) Establishment Act, are aimed at improving revenue generation, simplifying tax administration, and enhancing competitiveness.

Authorities have repeatedly described the overhaul as critical to strengthening Nigeria’s weak tax-to-GDP ratio and adapting the tax system to changing economic realities.

Capital gains, inflation, and market behaviour

One of the most far-reaching concerns relates to the computation of chargeable gains under Sections 39 and 40 of the Nigeria Tax Act, which require capital gains to be calculated as the difference between sale proceeds and the tax-written-down value of assets, without any adjustment for inflation, analysis by KPMG revealed.

This approach has attracted attention largely because of Nigeria’s inflation environment. Headline inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive years, averaging above 18 percent between 2022 and 2025, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Over the same period, asset price movements have been heavily influenced by currency depreciation and general price increases.

Actual market behaviour shows a mixed reaction to tax policy expectations, despite a strong full‑year rally, with the NGX All‑Share Index up more than 50  percent and market capitalisation near N99.4 trillion, the equities market saw significant sell‑offs in late 2025, including a N6.5 trillion drop in market value in November amid uncertainty over the new capital gains tax rules, underscoring investor sensitivity to tax policy shifts.

In its review of the law, KPMG Nigeria noted that taxing nominal gains in a high-inflation environment could result in taxpayers being assessed on inflationary gains rather than real economic value. The firm recommended the introduction of a cost indexation allowance to adjust asset values for inflation when computing chargeable gains.

According to the analysis, such an adjustment would reduce distortions in effective tax rates while still allowing the government to generate additional revenue from genuine capital appreciation.

Indirect transfer rules and foreign investment risks

Another provision drawing scrutiny is Section 47 of the Nigeria Tax Act, which subjects gains from indirect transfers of shares or assets by non-residents to Nigerian tax where such transfers result in changes in ownership of Nigerian companies or assets located in Nigeria.

The provision is being introduced amid weak foreign investment inflows. Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that foreign direct investment into Nigeria remains below pre-2019 levels, reflecting broader investor caution.

While similar indirect transfer rules exist in other jurisdictions, analysts note that such regimes are typically supported by detailed guidance and clear thresholds to reduce uncertainty.

KPMG’s analysis recommended that Nigerian tax authorities issue clear administrative guidance defining the scope, thresholds, and reporting obligations associated with indirect transfers. The firm noted that clarity would reduce the risk of disputes, improve compliance, and mitigate potential negative effects on foreign investment flows.

FX deductions clash with economic realities

Section 24 of the Nigeria Tax Act limits businesses from deducting foreign-currency expenses beyond their naira equivalent at the official CBN rate.

In practice, this means a company importing goods, paying foreign software subscriptions, or settling overseas vendor invoices cannot claim as tax-deductible any amount they spent above the official exchange rate.

For many companies, this is a real problem. Access to official foreign exchange is limited, forcing businesses to pay higher rates on the parallel market. Under the law, the extra cost becomes non-deductible, effectively increasing taxable profits and raising their tax bills.

KPMG warns that while the rule aims to curb speculative foreign exchange activity, it fails to account for supply shortages. The firm recommends that deductibility should reflect the actual cost incurred, provided proper documentation, so businesses aren’t penalized for circumstances beyond their control.

VAT-linked expense disallowances

Section 21(p) of the Nigeria Tax Act disallows deductions for expenses on which value-added tax has not been charged, even where such expenses were incurred wholly for business purposes.

This intersects with Nigeria’s VAT compliance challenges. The informal sector accounts for a significant share of economic activity, and VAT compliance gaps remain wide, according to assessments by tax authorities and development institutions.

Analysts note that the provision effectively transfers part of the VAT enforcement burden to compliant taxpayers, who may be penalised for supplier non-compliance.

KPMG recommended that Section 21(p) be deleted or substantially modified, arguing that deductibility should depend solely on whether an expense was wholly, exclusively, and necessarily incurred for business purposes. The firm noted that VAT compliance should instead be enforced directly through audits and penalties on defaulting suppliers.

Non-resident taxation and compliance ambiguity

Uncertainty also surrounds the compliance obligations of non-resident companies. While Section 17 of the Nigeria Tax Act provides that withholding tax constitutes final tax for certain non-resident payments where there is no permanent establishment or significant economic presence, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act does not clearly exempt such entities from registration or filing requirements.

Nigeria has signed over a dozen double taxation treaties (DTTs), including the UK, South Africa, Canada, and France, which align with the principle that final WHT extinguishes further tax obligations in the absence of a taxable presence. Experts say harmonizing the NTA and NTAA with these treaties is critical to avoid conflicts and deter foreign investors.

KPMG recommended that the relevant provisions of the Nigeria Tax Act and the Nigeria Tax Administration Act be harmonised, with explicit exemptions for non-resident companies whose Nigerian tax obligations have been fully discharged through withholding tax. According to the firm, such alignment would reduce compliance friction and improve Nigeria’s attractiveness for cross-border transactions.

As Nigeria enacts its most comprehensive tax overhaul in decades, the path to success will depend on clarity, alignment with international best practices, and swift adoption of recommended amendments. Without these measures, businesses may face higher costs, non-residents could be discouraged from investing, and capital markets may remain volatile. For policymakers, the challenge is not just raising revenue but ensuring that the reforms strengthen competitiveness and sustainable economic growth.


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19 Nigerian Banks Meet CBN Recapitalization Targets Ahead of March Deadline

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Nineteen Nigerian banks have fulfilled the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalization requirements as of January 6, 2026, six weeks before the March 31 deadline, according to data from The Cable Index.

19 Nigerian Banks Meet CBN Recapitalization Targets Ahead of March Deadline

CBN

Access Bank, Fidelity Bank, First Bank, GTBank (GTCO), UBA, and Zenith Bank—holders of international licenses—lead compliance among six major players.

National and regional licensees Citibank Nigeria, Ecobank Nigeria, Globus Bank, Stanbic IBTC, Sterling Bank, Wema Bank, PremiumTrust Bank, and Providus Bank have also hit the benchmarks.

Two non-interest banks, Jaiz and Lotus, alongside merchant banks FSDH, Greenwich, and Nova, round out the compliant group, meeting thresholds of N10-N20 billion for non-interest, N50 billion for merchants, N200 billion for nationals, and N500 billion for international banks as set in March 2024.

Approximately 14 banks remain non-compliant, underscoring urgency ahead of the deadline despite broad progress.


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BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 – NIBSS

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Bank Verification Number (BVN) enrollments in the country rose by 6.87 per cent , or 4.36 million, to 67.84 million as at the end of December 2025 from 63.48 million in the corresponding period of the preceding year, according to latest data released by the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS).

BVN Enrollment Up 6.87 Percent to 67.84m in 2025 - NIBSS

This means that a total number of 4.36 million BVN enrolments were recorded between the end of December 2024 and the end of last year.

The BVN scheme was launched on February 14, 2014 by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in collaboration with the Bankers’ Committee, NIBSS and the German firm, Dermalog, with the aim of capturing biometrics of all bank customers and giving each bank customer a unique 11-digit identity number (BVN) that can be verified across the Nigerian banking industry.

Lamido Sanusi, governor of the CBN, at the time, said at the event that the BVN scheme would enable the apex bank to significantly reduce incidents of fraud and money laundering in the banking industry and also help accelerate financial inclusion by opening up opportunities for credit to millions of Nigerians who do not have a standard means of identification.

In October 2017, the CBN released a regulatory framework for BVN operations and Watchlist for the financial system. It stated that the Watchlist comprises a database of bank customers identified by their BVNs, who have been involved in confirmed fraudulent activities in the Nigerian banking industry.

An analysis of the latest NIBSS data shows that BVN enrollment maintained an upward trend in the last five years, rising from 51.90 million in 2021 to 56.90 million and 60.12 million in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before hitting 63.48 million in 2024 and 67.84 in 2025.

Analysts attribute the rise in BVN enrolments in recent years to policy measures introduced by the CBN as part of its efforts to tackle fraud.

For instance, on December 1, 2023, the apex bank issued a circular directing Deposit money banks (DMBs) Non-interest banks, Payment Service Banks, other financial institutions and mobile operators, to ensure that all funded bank accounts or wallets, without BVN or National Identification Number (NIN) are placed on “Post No Debit or Credit,” by April 1, 2024.


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