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FBNQuest Research sees Modest GDP Growth for Nigeria

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After slipping into its second recession in 5 years, Nigeria’s economy is projected to expand by 2.0% in 2021 on the back of a modest fiscal stimulus and targeted private investment.

This is the view of the Research team at FBNQuest and was a key talking point during the Leading Conversations with FBNQuest webinar hosted by the firm to elaborate on its 2021 Outlook report published earlier this month.

With the theme “Tentative emergence from the shadow of COVID-19”, the outlook report captured the firm’s view on the Nigerian economy, socio-political environment and traditional asset classes (fixed income and equities) against the backdrop of the economic contraction that followed the COVID-19 pandemic which started last year.

The report notes that the second term of Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari, has been “hijacked” by COVID-19, with a sharp decline in oil prices and unprecedented lockdowns spurring a recession in 2020.

However, Nigeria’s government, unlike its counterparts in many advanced economies, has limited ammunition to catalyse a robust recovery in 2021. The report also highlights that the combined monetary and fiscal stimulus amounts to just 4% of GDP, compared to over 10% of GDP in large economies such as Brazil, Turkey, the United States, Canada, and Japan.

As Nigeria comes to grips with the challenges brought about by COVID-19, the report cites the speedy passage of the federal budget for the second year in a row and the end of fuel subsidy payments as positive reforms.

However, the insecurity in many parts of the country and the slow pace of oil sector legislative reforms were recognised as negatives for an economy desperate for strong and inclusive growth.

Nevertheless, FBNQuest expects low interest rates in the United States and an average Bonny Light Crude price of US$56 per barrel to support Nigeria’s economic recovery in 2021. In addition to fiscal stimulus and private-sector investment, the report identifies financial technology, agriculture, and ICT as primary drivers of growth in 2021.

With regards to asset prices, FBNQuest projects another positive year for equities in 2021. The research team notes that lower yields and the elevated liquidity available to domestic institutions buoyed stocks in 2020.

The impact of lower rates is expected to carry over into 2021, albeit with less dramatic impact, as domestic institutions are swayed by dividend yield offered by bank stocks. A number of non-financial stocks such as Seplat, Flour Mills, Nestle Nigeria and UAC of Nigeria are also expected to outperform in 2021.

FBNQuest projects that the NSE All Share Index will rise 20% in 2021, while in the fixed income market, yields are projected to rise by 3 percentage points to 10% to 11% on most bonds by the end of the year.

According to the firm, however these comments are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any stocks, as the report only seeks to present projections based on analyses.

On the exchange rate, the FBNQuest view is that a combination of higher oil revenue, multilateral loans and Eurobond sales should underpin reserves this year and allow the CBN to contain NGN exchange-rate depreciation. The forecast for average I&E/NAFEX rate is NGN419 per USD at end-2021.


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E-Financial

Ecobank Nigeria to Fully Repay $300m Eurobond Ahead of Schedule

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Ecobank Nigeria has moved to retire the remaining part of its $300 million Eurobond before maturity. The bank has launched a tender offer for holders of its 7.125% senior notes due February 2026.

The bank announced the offer on Friday, 28 November 2025, inviting investors to tender their holdings ahead of schedule. Of the original $300 million issuance, $150 million remains outstanding.

Under the terms, investors whose notes are accepted for repurchase will receive $1,000 for every $1,000 in principal, plus accrued and unpaid interest up to, but not including, the settlement date. The transaction is expected to be completed on or before 31 December 2025.

Ecobank said the early repayment move is part of a broader strategy to optimise its balance sheet and strengthen capital planning flexibility. The lender added that the tender offer gives investors an opportunity to exit the instrument ahead of the original February 2026 maturity.

In a statement, the bank said the initiative underscores its “commitment to transparent engagement with funding partners and investors,” stressing that the offer supports its long-term goal of maintaining a well-structured debt profile.

Participation in the programme is voluntary, and investors will make decisions based on their individual considerations, the bank added.

Ecobank emphasised that the announcement is for information only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. Eligible noteholders are expected to rely on the formal tender documents when deciding whether to take part.

 


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Reps Give Banks Four-Day Ultimatum on Tax Deductions, Charges

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The House of Representatives Ad hoc Committee investigating deductions of taxes and sundry charges from the earnings of civil and public servants has given commercial banks a four-day deadline to submit all requested documents.

Reps Give Banks Four-Day Ultimatum on Tax Deductions, Charges

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The committee, chaired by Hon. Kelechi Nwogwu, issued the ultimatum at the commencement of its investigation, following a motion earlier moved by the House Chief Whip, Hon. Usman Bello Kumo, on alleged deductions from civil servants’ salaries.

Nwogwu insisted that Chief Executive Officers of affected financial institutions must appear in person before the panel, rejecting representatives sent by GT Bank, Zenith Bank, Access Bank and other banks.

He explained that the panel was mandated to ensure that all deductions of charges by banks on customers’ accounts were fair and properly applied.

The committee disclosed that invitations had also been extended to the Ministry of Finance, the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, and all commercial banks operating in Nigeria.

“You cannot appear here without an identity. We are here on the mandate of the people who elected us into parliament. We have resolved to meet next week on Wednesday.

“You must submit all requested documents by Monday, May 1,” Nwogwu said.

He warned that any bank that failed to comply with the deadline would face sanctions, adding that the committee would put the CEOs on oath during the next sitting.

The investigation continues next week.


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SEC Urges IST to Freeze all CBEX Bank Accounts in Nigeria

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has asked the Investments and Securities Tribunal (IST) to order the freezing of all bank accounts belonging to Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) and other defendants held in commercial banks and financial institutions across Nigeria.

The request was made in Suit No. IST/OA/02/2025: Securities and Exchange Commission & Anor v. Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) & 25 Others, the first case before the 6th Tribunal presided over by Hon. Aminu Jinaidu, Chairman of the IST.

SEC also urged the Tribunal to seize houses and other assets allegedly acquired by the defendants using proceeds obtained from the public through the CBEX investment scheme, which it said falsely operated as a digital assets platform and capital-market operator.

The Commission argued that CBEX, which is not registered with SEC, unlawfully promised investors a 100 percent return on investment within 30 days—conduct it said is in violation of Section 3(b) of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025.

SEC further disclosed that the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong had, on April 23, 2024, issued an advisory warning against CBEX, describing it as a suspicious virtual-asset entity. According to the advisory, CBEX adopted a name resembling that of a Chinese property-rights trading organisation to give investors false assurance, despite having no connection with the legitimate entity.

At Tuesday’s sitting, the Tribunal ordered that hearing notices be served on the defendants through national newspapers, as CBEX failed to appear and was not represented in court.

CBEX launched in Nigeria in July 2024, operating through a website and mobile app. It claimed to use advanced artificial intelligence to generate unusually high profits from cryptocurrency trading, promising returns of up to 100 percent within a 40- to 45-day lock-in period. The scheme later collapsed and was exposed as a Ponzi operation that reportedly defrauded investors of more than N1.3 trillion (about $800 million).

Hon. Jinaidu also presided over several other matters on the tribunal’s docket, including Benue Investments Property Co. Ltd & Anor v. Securities and Exchange Commission & 6 Others; Maven Asset Management Ltd v. Securities and Exchange Commission; John Makinde Onade & Anor v. First Registrars & Investors Services Ltd & Anor; and Securities and Exchange Commission & Anor v. Tourist Company of Nigeria PLC & 6 Ors. All the cases were adjourned to January 27, 2026.

 


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