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FG May Raise VAT to 15 Percent before 2025- Report

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A report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), London, has predicted that the federal government might effect a 100 per cent rate increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) from the current rate of 7.5 per cent to 15 per cent before 2025 in order to raise government’s revenue.

FG May Raise VAT to 15 Percent before 2025- Report

The report titled, “Country Report Nigeria,” stated that the anticipated increase in VAT was inevitable given the rising public debt burden and the likelihood that the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) might not be able to deliver considerable increase in government’s revenue.

It also stated that the predicted VAT increase would be implemented instalmentally in 2022, 2024 and 2025.

The report from the research arm of The Economist magazine explained: “We expect three equal VAT rate increases, taking the rate to 15 per cent by 2025. The first is expected in 2022, prior to the next elections but seemingly inevitable given a rising debt burden, with further rises in 2024 and 2025. Even then we expect fiscal revenue to peak at just five per cent of the GDP in 2024, which also assumes no fuel subsidies beyond 2022.

“The federal government’s tax take is among the world’s lowest, undermined by widespread evasion and a large informal sector. The PIB is likely to be balanced between the interests of the treasury and investors, and so not deliver a considerable increase in revenue.

“Consequently, the VAT, currently at 7.5 per cent, is likely to be used as a means of repairing the public finances.”

The report also projected that public finances would remain in deficit between 2021 and 2025, because an average global crude oil price of $63.8/barrel in 2021-25, which makes up for more than 50 per cent of the federal government’s retained income, would be insufficient to balance the budget.

It added that the percentage of public debt to the GDP would stand at 35.4 per cent of the GDP in 2025.

“Overall, we expect the fiscal deficit to narrow to 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2021 (from 3.7 per cent of the GDP in 2020) as international oil prices rise.

“Also, the VAT rate increases and rising oil prices will push down the deficit to 2.6 per cent of the GDP in 2023-24, but a decline in average global oil prices in 2025 will cause the shortfall to widen to 3.0 per cent of the GDP in that year.

“The government has raised its public debt limit to 40 per cent of GDP to incorporate higher budget shortfalls over the medium term and to accommodate securitisation of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s deficit-financing as long-term debt. We expect public debt to reach only 35.4 per cent of the GDP in 2025,” the report added.

It further projected that, “high debt-servicing costs, a large public wage bill, and the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines will elevate expenditure. Capital investment will be emphasised to compensate for the disappearance of petrol subsidies once the PIB is enacted (which is expected in late 2021).

“The government will justify price deregulation by promising to invest the savings in infrastructure and will face pressure to match rhetoric with action.”

The report also identified price controls on petrol prices and electricity tariffs as another important area of focus, stressing that in spite of the astonishing is lacking.”

It, however, hinged the hope of market-determined petrol pump price on the Dangote Refinery, a new 650,000-barrel/day refinery near Lagos expected to come on-stream in 2022.

It, therefore, opined that Nigeria’s economic policy choices would be skewed, “towards protectionism and, for reasons of incompatibility will lean away from internationalism,” even though the country would remain a major player in Africa, given its size.

It added: “Land borders that were closed to goods since late 2019 have reopened, but Nigeria’s approach to encouraging regional trade will be minimalist, beyond its obligations under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCTFA).

“The trade pact compels Nigeria to eliminate 97 per cent of tariff lines over the next five to 10 years. This deadline will not be met zealously, given high prices in Nigeria.


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E-Financial

Nigeria, Others Lose $88bn Yearly to Illicit Flows —Edun

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Wale Edun, minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, has raised concern over Africa’s mounting revenue losses, warning that the continent forfeits an estimated $88 billion annually to illicit financial flows (IFFs), a development he described as a critical threat to sustainable growth.

Nigeria, Others Lose $88bn Yearly to Illicit Flows —Edun

Speaking at the 5th Session of the Sub-Committee on Tax and Illicit Financial Flows of the African Union, in Abuja, Mr Edun said the persistent outflows continue to deprive African countries of vital resources required for infrastructure, healthcare, and overall economic development.

The high-level meeting, held at Transcorp Hilton Abuja, brought together policymakers, tax administrators, and development partners to examine strategies for strengthening fiscal systems amid evolving global economic uncertainties.

Mr Edun stressed the need for African countries to reduce reliance on external financing sources such as debt, aid, and foreign investment, noting that these options are becoming increasingly unpredictable. He maintained that domestic resource mobilisation must serve as the foundation for long-term economic sustainability.

“Our ambition is to finance up to 90 per cent of Africa’s development needs from domestic resources,” he said, referencing the continent’s Agenda 2063 development framework.

He identified structural challenges, including tax evasion, weak institutional capacity, and limited economic diversification, as key impediments, while emphasising that curbing illicit financial flows remains central to unlocking Africa’s fiscal potential.

Highlighting ongoing reforms under President Bola Tinubu, Mr Edun noted that measures such as tax system reforms, fuel subsidy removal, and exchange rate unification are beginning to improve revenue performance and boost investor confidence.

He added that initiatives like the National Single Window are helping to reduce trade-related leakages, while enhanced international tax cooperation is supporting efforts to recover lost revenues. He also cited Executive Order 9 as a key policy aimed at strengthening transparency in the oil and gas sector.

Calling for broader continental action, Mr Edun urged African nations to expand their tax base, strengthen public financial management systems, and deepen financial inclusion. He listed institutional strengthening, digital infrastructure investment, and cross-border collaboration as critical reform priorities.

“The question is no longer whether we must reform, but how urgently and how boldly we act,” he said, warning that failure to act could leave African economies exposed to external shocks.

On his part, Mr Zacch Adedeji, executive chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), called for urgent steps to safeguard domestic resources and address widening financing gaps across the continent.

Mr Adedeji noted that illicit financial flows ranging from tax evasion and trade mispricing to aggressive tax avoidance continue to weaken Africa’s capacity to fund critical sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, and education.

“Every year, billions meant for development are lost through illegal financial transfers. These are lost hospitals, lost schools, and lost opportunities,” he said.

He stressed that the cross-border nature of illicit flows requires coordinated responses at both national and continental levels, adding that Nigeria is pursuing reforms to modernise revenue administration through expanded tax coverage, improved compliance, and digital innovation.

According to him, efficient and transparent tax systems are essential not only for revenue generation but also for strengthening public trust in government institutions.

 


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E-Financial

CBN Says 33 Banks Raise Fresh N4.65 Trillion in Recapitalisation Exercise

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced the successful conclusion of the banking sector recapitalisation programme initiated in March 2024.

CBN Says 33 Banks Raise Fresh N4.65 Trillion in Recapitalisation Exercise

Over the 24-month period, Nigerian banks raised a total of N4.65 trillion in new capital, strengthening the resilience of the financial system and enhancing its capacity to support the economy, according to a statement that was issued by CBN on Wednesday.

The programme recorded strong participation from both domestic and international investors, with 72.55 per cent of capital sourced locally and 27.45 per cent from international markets, reflecting sustained confidence in the Nigerian banking sector.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said: “The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well-positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”

The CBN confirmed that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme. A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.

All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.

The apex bank stated that the programme has strengthened capital adequacy ratios (CAR), with the sector maintaining levels above international Basel benchmarks.

Minimum CAR thresholds remain at 10 per cent for regional and national banks and 15 per cent for banks with international authorisation.

The recapitalisation, implemented alongside an orderly exit from regulatory forbearance, has improved asset quality, reinforcing balance sheet transparency and overall financial system stability.

To safeguard the gains, the CBN said it has strengthened its risk-based capital adequacy framework, requiring banks to conduct regular stress testing across defined scenarios and maintain appropriate capital buffers.

It stated that key regulatory measures, including prudential guidelines and the supervisory framework, are subject to periodic review to support ongoing strengthening of governance, risk management and sector resilience.

The recapitalisation programme was carried out without disruption to banking services, ensuring continuous access for individuals and businesses throughout the process.

The successful completion of the programme establishes a stronger and more resilient banking system, better positioned to support lending, mobilise savings, and withstand domestic and global shocks, the CBN said in the statement that was issued by Olubukola A. Akinwunmi, director, banking supervision, and Hakama Ali, acting director, corporate communications.

“The Central Bank of Nigeria remains committed to maintaining a stable, transparent, and resilient financial system that inspires confidence among depositors, investors, and the broader public, and to advancing the sustainability of the nation’s financial architecture,” the statement read in part.


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Rising Fraud Threatens Nigeria’s Digital Banking Gains — Experts

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Nigeria’s fast-growing digital banking ecosystem is facing increasing scrutiny over consumer safety, as rising fraud cases and weak redress mechanisms threaten to erode public trust in the sector.

Rising Fraud Threatens Nigeria’s Digital Banking Gains — Experts

Over the past decade, Nigeria has witnessed a remarkable shift from cash-based transactions to digital financial services, driven by mobile banking applications, instant transfers and Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) platforms.

Industry data show that Point-of-Sale (POS) transactions rose to a record N18 trillion in 2024, representing a 69 per cent increase year-on-year, while the number of deployed POS terminals more than doubled to 5.5 million nationwide.

Mobile banking has also emerged as the most widely used digital financial channel, with about four in five Nigerians reportedly accessing such services within a 90-day period.

Analysts say the growth reflects significant progress in financial inclusion and technology adoption, but warn that the expansion has exposed gaps in consumer protection.

According to a 2024 Nigeria Consumer Protection Survey by Innovations for Poverty Action, nearly one in four users of digital financial services reported experiencing unexpected charges, hidden fees or fraud attempts within the past year.

The report further indicated that only about half of affected users pursued formal complaints, a trend experts attribute to declining confidence in dispute resolution processes.

Data from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) also highlight growing risks, with fraud-related losses rising to N52.26 billion in 2024.

Although the number of reported fraud cases declined, stakeholders note that the scale of losses per incident has increased significantly, suggesting more sophisticated and high-impact attacks.

Experts identify social engineering as the most prevalent fraud method, relying on deception rather than complex technology to exploit unsuspecting customers.

They also warn that insider involvement remains a critical concern, with cases of internal compromise posing systemic risks to the integrity of financial institutions.

The development, according to analysts, underscores a widening gap between the rapid expansion of digital banking infrastructure and the pace of consumer protection frameworks.

“Convenience and security must evolve together. When one outpaces the other, it creates vulnerabilities that fraudsters can exploit,” a financial analyst said.

Regulators, however, have taken steps to address the challenges.

Nigeria’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2025 signalled improvements in the country’s financial safeguards.

In addition, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced risk-based cybersecurity frameworks for deposit money banks in 2024, setting stricter standards for managing digital risks.

Industry-wide enforcement has also intensified, with regulatory penalties reportedly exceeding N15 billion in 2024, reinforcing compliance with consumer protection rules.

Within the banking sector, institutions are increasingly investing in advanced security systems designed to monitor transactions in real time, detect anomalies and prevent fraud before it occurs.

Analysts note that such proactive measures, though largely invisible to customers, play a critical role in safeguarding digital transactions.

The experience of Union Bank of Nigeria illustrates this approach, with the bank reporting strong customer satisfaction across its digital platforms, including mobile banking, USSD services and enterprise solutions.

Observers attribute this performance to sustained investment in backend security infrastructure, proactive fraud monitoring systems and a corporate culture that prioritises customer protection.

Industry stakeholders agree that trust remains the cornerstone of banking, particularly in a digital environment where transactions are increasingly intangible.

They warn that without sustained improvements in security, transparency and accountability, the gains recorded in financial inclusion could be undermined.

As Nigeria continues to expand its digital financial ecosystem, experts say the next phase of growth must prioritise safety alongside convenience to ensure long-term sustainability.

“Digital banking has transformed access to financial services in Nigeria, but its future will depend on how well institutions protect the people who rely on it,” an industry stakeholder said.


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