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FXTM Analysis: French Election Relief Rekindles Risk Sentiment

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FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga comments on the potential market effects of the forthcoming French presidential elections.

Financial markets received a solid boost during early trading on Monday, after Centrist Emmanuel Macron secured a position in the second round of the French presidential elections. With Macron’s market-friendly, first round victory dissolving some risks associated around a potential anti-establishment shocker, the Euro lurched to fresh five-month highs above 1.0930. Although this risk-on sentiment could support the Euro in the short term, upside gains may face obstacles if uncertainty starts to mount once again ahead of the second round of voting on 7 May. While expectations remain somewhat elevated over Macron becoming the next French President, the live threat of an unexpected Trump-style victory by Marine Le Pen could still expose the Euro to downside shocks.

From a technical standpoint, although the sharp appreciation on the EURUSD has made prices bullish on the daily charts, questions should be asked about the longevity of the current rally. Bulls need to secure a daily close above 1.0900 to open a path towards 1.1000. In an alternative scenario, weakness below 1.0800 could open a path towards 1.0750 and lower.

Greenback Stumbles into New Week
The Dollar Index found itself pressured below 100.00 last week, after the combination of soft economic data and fading rate hike expectations enticed sellers to attack.

Although U.S President Donald Trump has announced that a big tax reform and tax reduction will be announced this Wednesday, markets have received this news with a big pinch of salt.

The skepticism over Trump’s ability to deliver is becoming quite visible and the growing threat of fiscal spending falling short of expectations may potentially punish the Dollar further.

From a technical standpoint, prices have commenced the trading week under renewed pressure and a break below 98.80 could open a path lower towards 98.50.

Stock Markets Uplifted by Macron
Global stocks were mostly higher during Monday’s trading session, as participants mulled over the market-friendly outcome of the first round of the French Presidential elections. With Macron’s impressive performance and victory in the first round easing some Frexit-related concerns, stocks in Asia and Europe marched into gains.

The newly found appetite for risk should support Wall Street this afternoon. While stock markets have the ability to edge higher in the short term as a result of this relief, potential anxiety ahead of the second round of voting and ongoing Trump uncertainties still have the ability to limit gains.

Commodity spotlight – Gold
The renewed appetite for riskier assets has reduced Gold’s glimmer on Monday, with the metal trading around $1270 as of writing.

While the current risk-on environment has the ability to expose the yellow metal to further losses, bulls remain in control above $1260. With uncertainty likely to heighten ahead of the second round of the French elections in the coming fortnight and Brexit developments weighing on sentiment, bulls still have a chance to send prices higher.

From a technical standpoint, the candlesticks are still trading within the daily bullish channel while the MACD points to the upside. A break back above $1280 could open a path higher towards $1280. A daily close below $1260 invalidates this daily bullish setup.

 

 


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E-Financial

Shareholders Approve $1.5bn Capital Raising for Access Holdings

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The shareholders of Access Holdings Plc have unanimously approved the company’s proposed capital raising of $1.5 billion through a bond or share sale and a further N365 billion via a Rights Issue to fund its ambitious growth plans.

The shareholders also ratified the appointments of Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Olusegun Ogbonnewo, and Ojinika Olaghere as Non-Executive Directors.

The appointment of Aig-Imoukhuede as the Chairman of Access Holdings was praised by the shareholders, who pointed to his rich history of success with the institution, having transformed it into Nigeria’s biggest lender by market value alongside late Herbert Wigwe.

The shareholders stated that Aigboje’s leadership was instrumental in driving the institution’s growth during the 2004 recapitalisation of the banking industry led by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of its former Governor, Prof. Charles Soludo.

“We are thrilled with Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s return to the role of Chairman. His proven track record, experience, and strategic insights position him as the ideal leader to steer Access Holdings towards meeting its lofty targets.

During his tenure as CEO, particularly during the recapitalisation directive by the CBN, he steered Access Bank to raise an impressive $2 billion in capital, and this demonstrates his capacity to, once again, lead Access Holdings towards successfully achieving the objectives of our planned capital raise and Rights Issue targets,” said Chief Sunny Nwosu, Chairman Emeritus of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN).

In line with the Group’s strong financial performance, the payment of a final dividend of N1.80 kobo per every N0.50 kobo ordinary share for the 2023 financial year was approved, marking a 28 per cent improvement from the corresponding period in 2022.

 


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Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been forced to deny a report saying it issued a directive requiring all banks and financial institutions to identify individuals or entities engaging in transactions with cryptocurrency exchanges and to ensure that such accounts are put on Post No Debit (PND) instruction for six months.

Confusion as CBN Deletes, Reinstates Tweet Calling Crypto-Related Directive Fake

A “Post No Debit” instruction is a directive issued by a bank or financial institution to restrict certain transactions on a customer’s account.

When a PND instruction is in place, the account holder is prohibited from making debit transactions, meaning they cannot withdraw funds or make payments using the affected account.

Confusion occurred when the central bank denied the story on X but then deleted the denial.

The alleged circular also stated that regulated financial institutions engaged in crypto or facilitating payments for crypto exchanges are prohibited.

However, this contradicts an earlier ban lifted in December 2023, allowing banks to facilitate transactions for crypto exchanges.

The central bank lifted the ban nearly two years after enforcing a comprehensive ban on banks engaging with digital currencies.

According to a statement by the CBN at the time, it recognized that the increasing global demand and adoption of crypto make it unjustifiable to maintain the stringent restrictions imposed on financial institutions in 2021.

However, due to the swift devaluation of the naira and the subsequent inflation rate of 29.9%, the government shifted its attention to platforms offering cryptocurrency services.

It disabled websites associated with crypto trading that had gained notoriety for setting informal valuations for the naira.

Binance encountered significant scrutiny when the CBN raised concerns regarding “suspicious financial transactions” occurring through Binance Nigeria in 2023.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor, CBN, said $26 billion had passed through Nigeria via Binance in 2023 from unidentified sources and users.

Binance is facing further challenges in Nigeria, with its executive Tigran Gambaryan, who is based in the United States, being detained in the country.

He’s facing five charges linked to money laundering following a meeting with Nigerian officials regarding Binance’s regulatory compliance.

Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of the executives who met with Nigerian officials about Binance’s regulatory issues, subsequently escaped custody and was tracked down to Kenya, where he faces extradition.

 


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NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has inaugurated an Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit (ACTU) at its headquarters in Abuja.

NDIC Inaugurates Anti-Corruption and Transparency Unit

Speaking at the inauguration which was conducted by officials of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC); Mr. Bello Hassan, managing director/chief executive, NDIC, said the corporation has a culture of zero tolerance for corruption, which is further strengthened by its core values of teamwork, respect and fairness, integrity, professionalism, and passion.

Represented by Mr. Mustapha M. Ibrahim, executive director, Operations, Hassan, said, the NDIC ACTU has strengthened the Corporation’s operational system through the implementation of various compliance measures to ensure ethics, integrity, transparency and accountability in the workplace.

He explained that the specific measures include robust Internal Controls, regular Risk Assessments, and strict adherence to regulatory guidelines, and comprehensive training programs for employees.

Hassan described the inauguration as a significant step in the Corporation’s ongoing commitment in the fight against corruption and enhances transparency.

He emphasised that NDIC Management remains committed to supporting ACTU activities, recognizing the unit’s critical role in ensuring the Corporation’s operations are conducted with integrity, free from corruption, and fostering public trust.

Dr. Musa Adamu Aliyu, chairman, ICPC, who was represented by Mr. Olusegun Adigun, acting director System Study and Review, ICPC, praised NDIC management for their dedication and active support in establishing and advancing the activities of the ACTU to address corruption issues and foster ethical practices.

He applauded the efficiency and diligence of the NDIC ACTU in fulfilling its mandate, resulting in the Corporation retaining the first position for two consecutive years on the annual ICPC Ethics and Integrity Compliance Scorecard.

He urged the new ACTU members to see their nomination as an opportunity to build on the good legacies of the previous members and to complement Management’s efforts in promoting the core values of the Corporation through their assigned duties.

 

 


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