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FXTM: Trump Bulls in the White House – Red Flags on US Debt

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Donald Trump’s administration is bullish right out of the gate. He’s chosen a cabinet made up of oil business tycoons like former Exxon chairman Rex Tillerson, so the agenda is clear; boost US big business and jobs. It’s less clear what Trump plans to do about the national debt, currently just shy of 20 trillion USD and 103% of GDP.

The debt is a red flag challenge that has the bulls in the White House lowering their horns for battle.

In the 10 years since the real estate sub-prime and financial crises, US debt more than doubled. The 700 billion USD it cost to bail out the crippled financial sector in 2008 was just the beginning.

A costly but necessary QE programme supported US Treasuries throughout the recession and recovery. QE combined with low interest rates helped to restore investment confidence.

The Federal Reserve’s cautious monetary policy nursed the economy through the worst period. But government debt overheated dramatically, going from nine trillion in 2007 to nearly 20 trillion in 2017.

It’s likely that the national debt will skyrocket under Trump’s presidency. Trump swears he will make America great again through aggressive fiscal policies.

He has pledged to accelerate growth and create jobs and wasted no time rallying his network of mega business owners.

During his pre-inauguration conference, Donald Trump said he was proud that Ford had decided to expand its factory in Michigan instead of building one in Mexico. Also, he is pressing General Motors to build its factories in the US instead of abroad.

The president-elect promised that Big Pharma would be pressured into bidding for government contracts. He believes this would save billions of dollars over time. In short, Trump wants to run the federal government like a business, and make it more efficient. Trump wants to be the ‘greatest job creator’ ever seen.

The president-elect’s rhetoric is all very well. But common sense says that money – especially debt – talks louder.

Even with savings on government contracts, at some point soon, taxes on business and households would have to be increased so the Treasury can service and even reduce US debt. This is unlikely to appeal to the Republican agenda of low taxes and less red tape, which is why Trump wants to raise import taxes instead.

The alternative to reducing the national debt is even less appealing. There is a risk of the US losing investor confidence in its bonds. This could lead to a huge rise in the cost of financing the massive debt, and the threat of default. The end result would be another prolonged recession.

This scenario is highly likely if Trump goes ahead with high tariffs on imports from China. There are increasing risks linked to alienating China and other emerging countries which play a big role in lending to the US.

As it stands, import tariffs slapped on top of a strong USD will have a cost of its own. The strong USD and higher interest rates will start pricing US products out of the export markets, meaning lower export revenues.

Higher import costs due to increased taxes will heat up inflation. This would make goods less affordable for consumers, and reduce importers’ overall revenues. Higher import taxes might bring in money for the US Treasury.

But at the same time, reduced demand for exports would mean lower tax revenues from domestic exporters.

Nonetheless, it can’t be denied that there is an upside to protectionism for domestic energy companies. If there are increased taxes on imported commodities like crude oil, it would increase local demand and revenues for US suppliers. In that case, US companies like Exxon would theoretically be able to boost the number of jobs on their payroll.

On the markets side, Trump’s rhetoric has a motivating effect, as Wall Street picks up the bullish tone. Everyone wants to go back to a strong economy and away from the pain of the recent recession and struggle to recover. But a return to pre-2007 economic conditions may still be a long way off, especially if Trump’s gamble on protectionism backfires.

The bottom line for investors is that the USD crosses, US share prices, and commodity prices still face a period of uncertainty.  Gold is likely to remain an attractive hedge, and a great deal depends on GDP performance in the US. The outlook isn’t earth-shakingly optimistic.

The World Bank forecasts a modest US economic growth of 2.2 percent in 2017. Equally modest is its global growth forecast of 2.8 percent in 2017. This is accompanied by downside risks in emerging and mature economies. Clearly, local and global supply and demand are still not as bullish as Donald Trump’s rhetoric.

The bulls in the White House are ready to do the kind of mega business that made America great, that much is clear.

But calibrating an entire economy is a challenge on a much larger scale, especially one that’s only just back on the road to growth. Until Trump deals with the question of the national debt, investors will have to see it as a significant risk to their portfolios.

 


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E-Financial

Kuda MFB Increases Kuda for Her Business Grants to ₦10 Million

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Kuda Microfinance Bank (Kuda MFB) has increased total grants on offer in the Kuda For Her Pitch Challenge to ₦10 million after receiving an overwhelming number of pitches from women entrepreneurs in the food and hospitality sectors.

Kuda MFB Increases Kuda for Her Business Grants to ₦10 Million

Kuda MFB

The initiative, which launched on March 10 as part of Kuda’s Women’s Month activities and closed on March 16, was designed to award four women-led businesses a grant of ₦1 million each.

In acknowledgement of the number and quality of pitches for grants received, Kuda MFB will now give ten Lagos-based entrepreneurs ₦1 million each to fund the growth of their businesses.

According to the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), women own about 43 percent of micro and small enterprises in Nigeria, many of which operate in the food and hospitality sectors.

But despite their strong presence in those sectors, women entrepreneurs continue to face challenges getting the funding they need to grow their businesses, with only about 23 percent of women-owned businesses currently able to access formal credit.

Insights from Kuda Business’ soon-to-be-released SME Outlook report also reinforces this trend. In a survey of 86 Lagos-based small businesses using Kuda Business, 47.5 percent of respondents identified lack of financing as the biggest barrier to expanding their operations, far ahead of other challenges such as rising operating costs (26.2 percent) and access to customers (14.8 per cent). Logistics constraints and regulatory hurdles were cited by 6.6 per cent and 4.9 per cent of respondents, respectively.

The survey also found that when choosing a banking partner, access to credit ranked as the most important feature for small businesses, cited by 38.5 percent of respondents. This was followed by easy payment tools (27.7 percent), low fees (26.2 percent), and customer support (7.7 percent).

Funding to increase the grants came from money that Kuda MFB had earmarked for a Kuda for Her seminar, which it has now cancelled.

Emmanuel Femi-Adejobi, Senior Brand Manager at Kuda, said: “The pitches we received made it very clear that women building businesses in Nigeria’s food and hospitality sectors urgently need capital to grow.

We cancelled our planned seminar and diverted some of the budget for it to give six more grants so that more women entrepreneurs will have extra financial support to grow and contribute more to Nigeria’s economic growth. At this time, that money means more to the entrepreneurs we serve than a seminar.”

Kuda MFB will announce the ten grant recipients on March 27.


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SEC Shuts Over 400 Fraudulent Investment Schemes, Arrests Operators

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Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has warned that unregistered schemes pose serious risks for investors.

SEC Shuts Over 400 Fraudulent Investment Schemes, Arrests Operators

This is coming after the commission announced that it has shut down more than 400 fraudulent investment schemes across Nigeria, in intensified regulatory crackdown on illegal investment activities and a stronger push to protect investors.

SEC also said that several suspects linked to these schemes are currently under prosecution.

The disclosure was made by Bola Ajomale, executive commissioner for Operations, SEC, during the financial literacy forum “The Money Fair,” organized by Nairametrics in Lagos.

Ajomale, who represented Dr. Emomotimi Agama, director-general, SEC, emphasized the regulator’s commitment to safeguarding market confidence amid a surge in unregulated investment platforms.

“Over the last three years, we have investigated and shut down at least 400 of these so-called schemes,” Ajomale said.

“We saw a tremendous increase in them last year, and a number of those involved have been arrested and prosecuted.”

If the investment product or the operator is not registered with the SEC, they have no business asking you to put your money there.”

The SEC has intensified its enforcement measures alongside public awareness campaigns to curb the proliferation of illegal investment platforms.

Initiatives such as the “See It, Snap It” campaign and the “SEC Scam Alert” platform have been introduced to enable Nigerians to report suspicious schemes quickly, allowing regulators to act before these operations expand.

Ajomale noted that the regulator has adopted a multi-pronged strategy combining investigations, arrests, and investor education to enhance market integrity.

“We are not just shutting down illegal schemes; we are also empowering investors with the knowledge to identify and avoid fraudulent operators,” he said.

The crackdown comes as unregulated investment products continue to pose significant risks to Nigerian investors, particularly amid rising interest in digital and alternative investment platforms.

 

 


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Deepening Conflict, Oil Price Volatility, Inflation Scare

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By Matthew Anthony, Senior Market Analyst- Africa

Tensions in the Middle East are sending shockwaves through global markets, stoking fresh inflation concerns as oil prices climb.

Deepening conflict, Oil price volatility, Inflation Scare

As these tensions escalate, mounting fears of inflationary shocks could force central banks to rethink their 2026 playbooks.

Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s inflation eased to 15.06% in February, just before the Iran conflict erupted. Since then, gasoline prices have soared by more than 30% for Africa’s leading crude exporter, pushing transportation costs higher for everyday Nigerians.

Nigeria’s oil production has helped shield it from the war’s fallout. The currency has only dipped 0.3% against the dollar in the past two weeks.

However, these shifts may challenge the CBN’s plans to keep lowering interest rates. The Naira now trades at NGN1,385 per US dollar, up from NGN1,360 before tensions flared in the Middle East.

Outside of Nigeria, risk aversion returned to global markets on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East sapped risk appetite.

The brief tech rally in the previous session merely served as a small distraction with equities on the back foot amid the overall caution.

All eyes remain on the ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as Trump calls for other nations to secure the critical waterway.

Ultimately, this has injected oil prices with monstrous levels of volatility with Brent rallying above $103 a barrel on Tuesday.  Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East have intensified fears around supply shocks, injecting oil bulls with renewed vigour.

To counter such shocks, the IEA launched its largest ever oil release amounting to 400million barrels of oil from their emergency stocks. In addition, the US issued its second temporary waiver for the purchase of Russian oil. Despite all of this, Brent is finding comfort at triple digits and could extend gains on geopolitical risk.

Gold remains on the backfoot despite the growing risk aversion.

A broadly stronger dollar and dwindling bets around lower US interest rates have dealt gold a double blow. Traders are only pricing in just one Fed cut in 2026 thanks to concerns around conflict-induced inflation.

Gold’s near-term outlook may be influenced by the Fed decision on Wednesday. No changes are expected but the Fed may be forced to reassess its policy strategy for 2026. Looking at the charts, gold is wobbling above $5000 as of writing. Weakness below this point may open a path toward $4900 while a rebound could see prices retest resistance at $5100.

Speaking of central banks, the RBA raised interest rates on Tuesday for a second consecutive meeting.

Growing concerns around conflict-induced inflation shocks may prompt central banks to reassess their policy strategies for 2026.

The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), among many others will be under the spotlight this week.

Market expectations have rapidly evaporated over the Fed cutting rates anytime while the BoE/ECB are seen potentially hiking rates by the end of the year if inflation persists. These sharp shifts in policy expectations may translate to heightened levels of volatility.


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