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FXTM: Trump Bulls in the White House – Red Flags on US Debt

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Donald Trump’s administration is bullish right out of the gate. He’s chosen a cabinet made up of oil business tycoons like former Exxon chairman Rex Tillerson, so the agenda is clear; boost US big business and jobs. It’s less clear what Trump plans to do about the national debt, currently just shy of 20 trillion USD and 103% of GDP.

The debt is a red flag challenge that has the bulls in the White House lowering their horns for battle.

In the 10 years since the real estate sub-prime and financial crises, US debt more than doubled. The 700 billion USD it cost to bail out the crippled financial sector in 2008 was just the beginning.

A costly but necessary QE programme supported US Treasuries throughout the recession and recovery. QE combined with low interest rates helped to restore investment confidence.

The Federal Reserve’s cautious monetary policy nursed the economy through the worst period. But government debt overheated dramatically, going from nine trillion in 2007 to nearly 20 trillion in 2017.

It’s likely that the national debt will skyrocket under Trump’s presidency. Trump swears he will make America great again through aggressive fiscal policies.

He has pledged to accelerate growth and create jobs and wasted no time rallying his network of mega business owners.

During his pre-inauguration conference, Donald Trump said he was proud that Ford had decided to expand its factory in Michigan instead of building one in Mexico. Also, he is pressing General Motors to build its factories in the US instead of abroad.

The president-elect promised that Big Pharma would be pressured into bidding for government contracts. He believes this would save billions of dollars over time. In short, Trump wants to run the federal government like a business, and make it more efficient. Trump wants to be the ‘greatest job creator’ ever seen.

The president-elect’s rhetoric is all very well. But common sense says that money – especially debt – talks louder.

Even with savings on government contracts, at some point soon, taxes on business and households would have to be increased so the Treasury can service and even reduce US debt. This is unlikely to appeal to the Republican agenda of low taxes and less red tape, which is why Trump wants to raise import taxes instead.

The alternative to reducing the national debt is even less appealing. There is a risk of the US losing investor confidence in its bonds. This could lead to a huge rise in the cost of financing the massive debt, and the threat of default. The end result would be another prolonged recession.

This scenario is highly likely if Trump goes ahead with high tariffs on imports from China. There are increasing risks linked to alienating China and other emerging countries which play a big role in lending to the US.

As it stands, import tariffs slapped on top of a strong USD will have a cost of its own. The strong USD and higher interest rates will start pricing US products out of the export markets, meaning lower export revenues.

Higher import costs due to increased taxes will heat up inflation. This would make goods less affordable for consumers, and reduce importers’ overall revenues. Higher import taxes might bring in money for the US Treasury.

But at the same time, reduced demand for exports would mean lower tax revenues from domestic exporters.

Nonetheless, it can’t be denied that there is an upside to protectionism for domestic energy companies. If there are increased taxes on imported commodities like crude oil, it would increase local demand and revenues for US suppliers. In that case, US companies like Exxon would theoretically be able to boost the number of jobs on their payroll.

On the markets side, Trump’s rhetoric has a motivating effect, as Wall Street picks up the bullish tone. Everyone wants to go back to a strong economy and away from the pain of the recent recession and struggle to recover. But a return to pre-2007 economic conditions may still be a long way off, especially if Trump’s gamble on protectionism backfires.

The bottom line for investors is that the USD crosses, US share prices, and commodity prices still face a period of uncertainty.  Gold is likely to remain an attractive hedge, and a great deal depends on GDP performance in the US. The outlook isn’t earth-shakingly optimistic.

The World Bank forecasts a modest US economic growth of 2.2 percent in 2017. Equally modest is its global growth forecast of 2.8 percent in 2017. This is accompanied by downside risks in emerging and mature economies. Clearly, local and global supply and demand are still not as bullish as Donald Trump’s rhetoric.

The bulls in the White House are ready to do the kind of mega business that made America great, that much is clear.

But calibrating an entire economy is a challenge on a much larger scale, especially one that’s only just back on the road to growth. Until Trump deals with the question of the national debt, investors will have to see it as a significant risk to their portfolios.

 


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E-Financial

UBA launches instant digital platform for seamless account opening across Africa, diaspora

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United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Africa’s leading financial institution, on Tuesday unveiled a groundbreaking instant account opening platform, revolutionising banking access for millions across the continent and diaspora communities worldwide.

UBA launches instant digital platform for seamless account opening across Africa, diaspora

UBA

The fully digital innovation, accessible at ubagroup.com, empowers prospective customers to complete account onboarding online in minutes, bypassing paperwork, branch visits, and lengthy processes that have long hindered financial inclusion. Supporting Naira and Diaspora accounts with multi-language options, the platform operates seamlessly on computers, tablets, and smartphones, catering to UBA’s diverse pan-African footprint spanning 20 countries, the UK, US, France, and UAE.

Shamsideen Fashola, Group Head of Retail and Digital Banking, described the launch as a pivotal step in democratising finance. “At UBA, we are committed to redefining the customer experience through innovation and simplicity,” Fashola said. “This fully digital solution underscores our belief that banking should be accessible, secure, and truly borderless.”

The seven-step process is intuitive: customers select “Open a Savings Account,” input their Bank Verification Number (BVN), undergo facial verification, confirm an OTP, update details, upload documents, add a digital signature, and receive an instant account number. This bridges traditional banking rigour with fintech speed, incorporating digital KYC while upholding stringent security.

Built with compliance at its core, the platform adheres to Nigeria’s Data Protection Act (NDPA) and Europe’s GDPR, safeguarding user privacy amid cross-border operations. Unlike conventional methods requiring physical biometrics, it enables immediate enrolment in UBA’s digital channels, blending convenience with regulatory depth.

Alero Ladipo, Group Head of Brand, Marketing, and Corporate Communications, highlighted customer-centric design. “Today’s customers expect speed, convenience, and compliance without compromise,” Ladipo stated. “We have blended industry-leading digital onboarding with robust standards for a seamless experience matching global best practices.”

The move reinforces UBA’s dominance in technology-driven inclusion, serving over 50 million customers with 30,000 employees and pioneering retail, commercial, and institutional services. Analysts view it as a strategic edge over fintech rivals, accelerating Africa’s digital economy amid rising diaspora remittances and intra-continental trade.

As Nigeria and Africa push financial digitisation, UBA’s platform positions the bank to capture untapped markets, fostering economic growth through barrier-free banking


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Kuda MFB Secures National Microfinance Banking Licence, Sets Stage for Nationwide Growth

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Kuda Microfinance Bank (Kuda MFB) has received a license from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to operate as a National Microfinance Bank, which means that it can now have a physical presence across Nigeria.

Kuda MFB Secures National Microfinance Banking Licence, Sets Stage for Nationwide Growth

Musty Mustapha, MD/CEO of Kuda MFB

With the Unit Microfinance Bank licence it held until December 2025, Kuda MFB’s physical operations were limited to a specific location. The national licence removes those geographic restrictions, allowing the bank to open customer experience centres in multiple parts of the country. It also regularises Kuda MFB’s licensing status in line with the Central Bank’s framework for microfinance banks.

According to the bank, the national licence is about regulatory alignment and operational flexibility rather than a shift away from its digital-first model, so it will continue to lead with digital banking services, offering Nigerians the convenience of making transfers and payments, saving, and accessing instant credit through the Kuda app.

Musty Mustapha, MD/CEO of Kuda MFB, said, “Securing a national microfinance banking licence is an important step for us as a regulated institution. It strengthens our relationship with the Central Bank and affirms our commitment to operating at the highest standards of compliance as we scale. While we remain digital at our core, this licence gives us the flexibility to create more physical touchpoints where customers want in-person support or engagement, allowing us to serve Nigerians across the country in whichever ways are most convenient for them.”

Subject to regulatory approval, Kuda MFB plans to open more experience centres designed for customer support and community engagement, in the style of its existing experience centre in Yaba, Lagos, where customers and the general public can speak directly with the Kuda team to get help and learn about the microfinance bank’s products and services.

Kuda MFB’s national licence does not change its existing product offerings or transaction capabilities, but it provides the regulatory backing for a nationwide presence.


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NDIC Seeks EFCC’s Support to Trace, Recover Assets of Failed Banks

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Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) have agreed to strengthen collaboration to enhance the investigation and prosecution of offences that lead to bank failures, while also improving the recovery of assets and debts of failed banks.

NDIC Seeks EFCC's Support to Trace, Recover Assets of Failed Banks

Thompson Oludare Sunday, managing director and chief executive of the NDIC, made this known during a courtesy visit by the Corporation’s management team to Olanipekun Olukoyede, executive chairman of the EFCC, at the Commission’s headquarters in Abuja.

In a statement issued on Sunday by the NDIC’s Hawwau Gambo, head of Communication and Public Affairs, Sunday said robust partnership with the EFCC is critical to the effective liquidation of failed banks, a process that involves asset realisation and debt recovery, with proceeds used to settle uninsured deposits.

He noted that cases of asset stripping and concealment require coordinated efforts, particularly in asset tracing, recovery and enforcement, adding that the EFCC’s expertise is vital in achieving these objectives.

Sunday also identified banking fraud investigations and the prosecution of individuals whose actions contribute to bank collapses as key areas where both institutions can further strengthen their cooperation.

He stressed that NDIC plays a vital role in maintaining financial system stability through the execution of its four statutory mandates in deposit guarantee, bank supervision, distress resolution and bank liquidation.

According to him, the Corporation’s overarching goal is to safeguard depositors’ funds, ensure prompt compensation when banks fail, and sustain public confidence in the financial system.

He also observed that both institutions share common values of integrity, professionalism and accountability, describing the visit as a step towards reinforcing institutional partnership, especially in areas where EFCC’s investigative and prosecutorial capacity is essential to NDIC’s mandate.

“We aim to further strengthen our collaboration, deepen institutional synergy and explore additional avenues for mutual support in the pursuit of national financial system stability.

“The EFCC has been our partner and we want this to continue. We look forward to an expanded and more impactful partnership between our two esteemed institutions.

“Your experience has and will continue to greatly enhance our recovery efforts.  Additionally, we have that strategic responsibility for prosecuting individuals whose actions contribute to the failure of banks. We therefore seek closer collaboration with the Commission in this critical area”

Responding, the EFCC boss, Olukoyede, reiterated the Commission’s commitment to its longstanding working relationship with the NDIC in tackling financial crimes within the banking sector.

He acknowledged the history of cooperation between the two agencies, particularly in investigations and capacity development related to banking operations.

Olukoyede also briefed the delegation on key departments within the EFCC, including the Bank Fraud Section, which handles matters related to the NDIC.

He encouraged the Corporation to submit any outstanding cases for prompt assessment, noting that this would enhance tracking, accountability and case resolution.

The EFCC Chairman further highlighted the role of the Commission’s Fraud Risk Assessment and Control Department, which focuses on proactive monitoring, compliance, sound risk management and internal controls in both public and private sector institutions.

He described these efforts as part of the EFCC’s broader mandate to protect and strengthen the Nigerian economy.

Olukoyede assured the NDIC of the EFCC’s continued support in deepening institutional synergy to combat financial crimes, improve asset recovery, and ensure that offenders who undermine the banking sector are brought to justice.

 

 


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